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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221109
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS SIMILAR IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND SIMILAR MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM IN THE METRO AREA TAFS. FOR KACT...PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAS THUS FAR KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE.
BRIEF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
FORECASTS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS OF 4-6SM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
COULD INTERRUPT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220448 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS OF 4-6SM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
COULD INTERRUPT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 220448 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS OF 4-6SM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
COULD INTERRUPT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WOULD BE NEEDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 212319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. IN
THE METROPLEX...VISIBILITIES OF 5-6SM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
12-15Z. FOR WACO...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-3SM
BETWEEN 10-15Z.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 212319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. IN
THE METROPLEX...VISIBILITIES OF 5-6SM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
12-15Z. FOR WACO...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-3SM
BETWEEN 10-15Z.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211936
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS


 &&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS OF
LESS THAN 8 KTS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO E-ESE AT TIMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD PRECLUDE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED CU MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN.

FOR THE WACO TAF...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL WITH E WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH. A FEW POCKETS OF CU MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THE GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE
TAF SITE. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AND WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE SUB VFR BR/FG.
SHOULD WINDS DECREASE AND/OR THE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BE LESS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MVFR BR/FG MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON CU MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
WEST...FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE OUT THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD GROUP.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS OF
LESS THAN 8 KTS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO E-ESE AT TIMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD PRECLUDE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED CU MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN.

FOR THE WACO TAF...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL WITH E WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH. A FEW POCKETS OF CU MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THE GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE
TAF SITE. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AND WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE SUB VFR BR/FG.
SHOULD WINDS DECREASE AND/OR THE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BE LESS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MVFR BR/FG MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON CU MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
WEST...FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE OUT THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD GROUP.

15-BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210815
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 202333
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. I PULLED THE SUNRISE MVFR VIS FROM TOMORROW
MORNING/S WACO TAF BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST ABOVE
700MB WHICH WILL SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. CROSSOVER TEMP IS A
BIT LOWER AS WELL...AND ONLY THE NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF FOG
FORMATION. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              59  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             57  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 202333
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. I PULLED THE SUNRISE MVFR VIS FROM TOMORROW
MORNING/S WACO TAF BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST ABOVE
700MB WHICH WILL SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. CROSSOVER TEMP IS A
BIT LOWER AS WELL...AND ONLY THE NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF FOG
FORMATION. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              59  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             57  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              57  82  61  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  81  58  76  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  82  60  80  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  60  81  56 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  58  79  55 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              57  82  61  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  81  58  76  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  82  60  80  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  60  81  56 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  58  79  55 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75











000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75










000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75









000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75









000
FXUS64 KFWD 201133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200451
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.


&&

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200451
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.


&&

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192342
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192342
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 192342
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192342
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PACKAGE REVOLVE PRIMARILY
AROUND CEILINGS FOR BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL FLIRT WITH MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE AROUND THE 3-4KFT LEVEL IS PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/LOWER STRATUS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BREAKUP AND THINK AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05











000
FXUS64 KFWD 191950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PACKAGE REVOLVE PRIMARILY
AROUND CEILINGS FOR BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL FLIRT WITH MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE AROUND THE 3-4KFT LEVEL IS PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/LOWER STRATUS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BREAKUP AND THINK AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              58  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05










000
FXUS64 KFWD 191747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PACKAGE REVOLVE PRIMARILY
AROUND CEILINGS FOR BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...CEILINGS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
WILL FLIRT WITH MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE AROUND THE 3-4KFT LEVEL IS PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/LOWER STRATUS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BREAKUP AND THINK AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

15-BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER MOVES EAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THEN UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A
WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS TO IT/S EVOLUTION AND TRACK THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GFS... AND MOST GEM MEMBERS...TAKE THE TROUGH/S
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF DROPS THE SHORTWAVE SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PARKS IT IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE CAN MODEL IS MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN
MEXICO ON THURSDAY... WHICH DOES NOT SEEMS LIKELY. FOR THIS
FORECAST...WE/LL TAKE A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH KEEPS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR EAST AND THUS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
PROVIDING MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

ERGO...CONTINUED PLEASANT FALL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SPREADING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WE WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  59  83  63  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  58  82  61  82 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  53  77  59  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            77  56  82  62  82 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  55  80  60  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  59  82  63  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  56  82  61  83 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  57  81  61  82 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  59  81  61  82 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  56  83  61  83 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







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