Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KFWD 282337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE WEST OF A KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO KBWD /BROWNWOOD/ LINE AS OF
23Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 25-30 MPH.
THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
01-02Z. THUS HAVE CARRIED TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z
FOR KAFW AND KFTW...AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FOR THE REST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
STARTING AT 20Z.

THINGS ARE SIMILAR AT WACO EXPECT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...04 TO 08Z.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282337
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE WEST OF A KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO KBWD /BROWNWOOD/ LINE AS OF
23Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 25-30 MPH.
THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
01-02Z. THUS HAVE CARRIED TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z
FOR KAFW AND KFTW...AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FOR THE REST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED
STARTING AT 20Z.

THINGS ARE SIMILAR AT WACO EXPECT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...04 TO 08Z.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 282044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-
174-175.


&&

$$

30/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-
174-175.


&&

$$

30/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281742
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
THE DEPARTING COMPLEX LEFT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE AFFECTS OF THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WILL ORGANIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AND WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281742
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
THE DEPARTING COMPLEX LEFT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE AFFECTS OF THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WILL ORGANIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AND WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281742
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
THE DEPARTING COMPLEX LEFT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE AFFECTS OF THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WILL ORGANIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AND WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281639
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
THE DEPARTING COMPLEX LEFT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE AFFECTS OF THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WILL ORGANIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AND WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

30/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281639
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING HAD LIFTED NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
THE DEPARTING COMPLEX LEFT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT UP AN 18Z
SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE AFFECTS OF THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WILL ORGANIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AND WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

30/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SHORT TERM CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND OUTFLOW WIND SHIFT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISRUPT NORTH DEPARTURES DURING THE MORNING
PUSH...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY SHOWERY CELLS ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LINE WILL IMPACT ANY METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. NEW CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE HAVE DISRUPTED THE OUTFLOW...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX. AT
THIS POINT...ANY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A NEED TO SWITCH FLOW.

AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...WHAT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS MAY BE OBLITERATED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN TODAY...
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FORCING AND A FOCUS FOR INITIATION MEANS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS UNTIL MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE CAN BETTER CAPTURE THE EVENT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280917
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015


...MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO
ATHENS LINE...

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS STILL
LINGERING. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AND
OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE WEST MAKES IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A VCTS IN AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FROM 05Z. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS TIMING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280917
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015


...MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO
ATHENS LINE...

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS NW TX/SW OK
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS VIA REGIONAL RADAR THAT IT
IS BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR BY SUNRISE BUT WEAKEN AS
OUTFLOW OUTRUNS IT AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE NORTH
OF I-20 AND EITHER SIDE OF I-35 DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE
OUTFLOW MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE WITH PLENTY OF COLUMN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER MORE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE WITH THE MEAN STEERING CURRENT ALOFT TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH
DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION...A
NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN YET ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING
ACROSS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG... MID LVL LAPSE RATES HOVERING BETWEEN 7-8 DEG/C AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ALL POINT TO MORE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MORE FLOODING BECOME A
CONCERN AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND
RUN OFF IS LIKELY TO OCCUR QUICKLY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
AGGRAVATING THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SWOLLEN
RIVERS...LAKES AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE
MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORM OFF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED TO FORM INTO YET ANOTHER MCS AND
LIKELY CROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE-HILLSBORO-ATHENS LINE PER PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO LOWER
TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS SYSTEMS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT/S
HIGHLY PROBABLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTH AND INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE CWA. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEYOND TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PINPOINTING THE
HIGHER RISK AREAS. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINING IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE RELATIVE
WEAK BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PUSHING THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ANY FLOODING
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STALL AN UPPER TROUGH /OR LOW/ TO OUR EAST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE OPEN...WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST
THAN THE GFS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...THOUGH CERTAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
COULD OCCUR EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE RICHEST COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID 80S.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS STILL
LINGERING. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AND
OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE WEST MAKES IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A VCTS IN AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FROM 05Z. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS TIMING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
WACO, TX              86  71  84  67  83 /  20  50  60  30  50
PARIS, TX             82  70  81  67  79 /  30  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            84  70  81  67  81 /  40  70  60  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          84  69  82  67  80 /  40  60  60  60  60
DALLAS, TX            85  71  83  69  82 /  30  60  60  60  60
TERRELL, TX           84  71  84  68  81 /  20  50  60  50  60
CORSICANA, TX         84  71  84  68  82 /  20  40  60  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  85  67  83 /  30  40  50  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  68  82  66  80 /  50  70  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.


&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280455 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS STILL
LINGERING. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AND
OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE WEST MAKES IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A VCTS IN AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FROM 05Z. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS TIMING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280455
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS STILL
LINGERING. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA AND
OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WELL
TO THE WEST MAKES IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE A VCTS IN AT ALL OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FROM 05Z. MODIFICATIONS TO THIS TIMING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 272342
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORM IS
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF DALLAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN
YESTERDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE
METROPLEX. WILL CARRY A VCTS AT FTW/GKY/AFW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND IF THEY GET CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A
VCTS LATE IN THE DFW TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 272342 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORM IS
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF DALLAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN
YESTERDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE
METROPLEX. WILL CARRY A VCTS AT FTW/GKY/AFW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND IF THEY GET CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A
VCTS LATE IN THE DFW TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272342 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST STORM IS
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF DALLAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN
YESTERDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE
METROPLEX. WILL CARRY A VCTS AT FTW/GKY/AFW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND IF THEY GET CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE A
VCTS LATE IN THE DFW TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AFTER THE AREA WAS LEFT SCOURED OUT BEHIND
THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...CAPE
VALUES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER...THE CAP STILL REMAINS IN
TACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT MOST HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET GOING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT VERY STRONG
RIGHT NOW. STORM MOTION WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW AS WELL...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAKE IT INTO
TEXAS LATE TOMORROW. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
BECAUSE THE SOILS...RIVERS/CREEKS..AND LAKES ARE NEARLY ALL
SATURATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE AN
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. HIGH
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN SOLID AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND/OR COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

THE BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. AS
IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
THIS SOURCE OF LIFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS RIDGING TO OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IT MAY PUT US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND IF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN SUCH A PATTERN...IT COULD
BRING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP A SUNNY DISPOSITION AND SIDE WITH THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE US WITH SUBSIDENCE.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  84  69 /  40  40  50  50  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  85  68 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  70  82  68 /  30  40  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            68  84  70  82  68 /  30  40  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  69  83  68 /  30  40  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            70  85  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  50  40
TERRELL, TX           72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  84  71  85  69 /  40  40  40  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  87  71  86  68 /  40  40  40  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  83  68  83  67 /  40  40  60  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78

&&

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78

&&

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING (23-02Z)...SO VCTS WAS KEPT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS
9-15Z.

78

&&

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271545
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 743 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING HEIGHTS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
THE MCS IS NOW IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENSUE...WITH A RETURN OF A STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271545
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WERE
SHIFTED SOUTHWEST...BASED OFF OF THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT 15Z...
ROUGHLY FROM CANTON...TO TERRELL...TO FORT WORTH...WHICH IS
DIVIDING THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR. THE STRONGEST SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING IN WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
OUR DEWPOINTS AREN`T TOO SHABBY EITHER...SITTING IN THE 60S...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CAPE VALUES
SURGING UPWARDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND RAISED THEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT STRONG TODAY...BUT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
ALL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 743 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING HEIGHTS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
THE MCS IS NOW IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENSUE...WITH A RETURN OF A STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  70  84  71  82 /  30  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             82  69  83  70  80 /  30  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  70  83  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  70  84  70  81 /  30  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            86  72  84  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  30  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         86  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  40  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  70  82  68  82 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271243 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING HEIGHTS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
THE MCS IS NOW IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENSUE...WITH A RETURN OF A STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271243
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING HEIGHTS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
THE MCS IS NOW IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENSUE...WITH A RETURN OF A STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 271243 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING CEILING HEIGHTS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DISRUPTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS.
THE MCS IS NOW IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENSUE...WITH A RETURN OF A STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TODAY. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270854
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270854
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270854
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270854
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING AND YESTERDAY MORNING...WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A LINEAR MCS EXITING THE REGION. THIS MCS HAS BEEN WEAKER
AND SLOWER AS IT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AND WILL STILL HAVE HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS THAT AREA. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INHIBITION FROM
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL HOLD HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR MCS MESOSCALE REMNANTS MOVING
E/SE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
REDESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS...WE DO NOT
FEEL ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL FOREGO ANY FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE/LL ADVERTISE OUR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE OUT OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE EVEN STRUGGLING IN THIS MOIST AND
PROGRESSIVE REGIME AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING. FINALLY...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND TODAY.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH A
REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER... WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH ANY MCS/S THAT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME FRAME FOR A FUTURE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE REFINED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS.

THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO FINALLY LIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND WILL HELP TO USHER IN A WEAK LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
PER THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO LINGER A WEAK...CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX TO
OUR EAST. WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER MODELS ON THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IF THE GFS PANS OUT...LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THINK MANY OF US
ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY JUNE.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  84  71  82 /  50  40  40  50  50
WACO, TX              87  72  84  72  83 /  30  40  40  30  40
PARIS, TX             81  69  83  70  80 /  50  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            85  70  83  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          84  70  84  70  81 /  50  30  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            87  72  84  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  71  85  72  82 /  50  40  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  71  84  72  82 /  40  40  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            87  72  84  72  83 /  40  30  40  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  70  82  68  82 /  30  40  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270503
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  87  70  85  70 /  70  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              70  88  72  85  71 /  60  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             66  82  69  84  69 /  20  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            67  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          67  85  70  85  69 /  50  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            67  88  72  85  71 /  70  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           69  87  71  86  71 /  70  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  86  71  85  71 /  70  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  40  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ118-119.


&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270503
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES...SOME LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO COME BACK IN DUE
TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS IN
AT 09Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON /19Z/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  87  70  85  70 /  70  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              70  88  72  85  71 /  60  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             66  82  69  84  69 /  20  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            67  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          67  85  70  85  69 /  50  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            67  88  72  85  71 /  70  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           69  87  71  86  71 /  70  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  86  71  85  71 /  70  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  40  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ118-119.


&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BETWEEN KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/...KABI
/ABILENE/....AND KMWL /MINERAL WELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WHILE SOME OF THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA ARE
TURNING TO THE RIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THE 02-04Z PERIOD...AND WILL UPDATE LATER AS NEEDED. NOTE THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE OVER 60 MILES WEST OF KDFW...ANVIL
LIGHTNING IS NOTED AS FAR EAST AS TARRANT COUNTY.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT CDT /05Z/
WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG BY 09Z.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 20Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR THE
27/20Z-28/01Z PERIOD.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER BETWEEN KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/...KABI
/ABILENE/....AND KMWL /MINERAL WELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WHILE SOME OF THE CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA ARE
TURNING TO THE RIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THE 02-04Z PERIOD...AND WILL UPDATE LATER AS NEEDED. NOTE THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS ARE OVER 60 MILES WEST OF KDFW...ANVIL
LIGHTNING IS NOTED AS FAR EAST AS TARRANT COUNTY.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT CDT /05Z/
WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG BY 09Z.
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 20Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR THE
27/20Z-28/01Z PERIOD.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  70  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 262020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME REPREAVE FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY MID-WEEK.

THE MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AMPLE SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WHICH HAS
INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
CAPE VALUES HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD DRY LINE IS
PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BOTH FEATURES PROVIDE CONFLUENCE AND WILL
LEAD TO STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINE
TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WILL BE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO BONHAM
LINE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT STORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...AS SOIL MOISTURE
IS VERY HIGH AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WHILE STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT VERY HIGH BECAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TOO STRONG...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE COMES INTO PLAY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME REGARDING FLOODING
POTENTIAL...SINCE THE AREA CANNOT TAKE ON TOO MUCH MORE WATER
WITHOUT CAUSING PROBLEMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND BRING WITH
IT RENEWED RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DOMINATE AND HELP US DRY OUT...FOR AT LEAST A
DAY OR TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WE EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND FINALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIATION
POINT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...WE WILL ONLY MENTION STORMS IN THE
VICINITY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  87  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  40  40
WACO, TX              72  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             68  82  69  84  69 /  40  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  85  69 /  40  30  20  40  40
DALLAS, TX            72  88  72  85  71 /  30  30  20  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  71  86  71 /  30  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  72  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  87  70  83  67 /  30  20  20  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261752
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WE EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND FINALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIATION
POINT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...WE WILL ONLY MENTION STORMS IN THE
VICINITY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE PATCHY FOG AND CLOUD COVER HAVE TAKEN THEIR SWEET TIME MOVING OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE
ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.

ALSO NUDGED POPS EAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE MOST SUPPORTIVE SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIE NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY
STILL SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. KEEP IN MIND THAT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              86  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             83  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          82  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            84  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            85  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  69  86  69  84 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261752
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS. WE EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND FINALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIATION
POINT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS ON THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. SINCE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...WE WILL ONLY MENTION STORMS IN THE
VICINITY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE PATCHY FOG AND CLOUD COVER HAVE TAKEN THEIR SWEET TIME MOVING OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE
ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.

ALSO NUDGED POPS EAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE MOST SUPPORTIVE SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIE NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY
STILL SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. KEEP IN MIND THAT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              86  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             83  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          82  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            84  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            85  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  69  86  69  84 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261558
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PATCHY FOG AND CLOUD COVER HAVE TAKEN THEIR SWEET TIME MOVING OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE
ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.

ALSO NUDGED POPS EAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE MOST SUPPORTIVE SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIE NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY
STILL SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. KEEP IN MIND THAT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...IFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY...PM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A RAIN-COOLED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER EASILY SATURATED DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXITING CLOUD
SHIELD...ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
BUT AS A 30-40KT LLJ LIFTED OVER THE SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER...IFR
CEILINGS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE CEILINGS ARRESTED THE COOLING...AND
AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GENTLY WARMED THE SURFACE...RH VALUES
FELL BELOW 100 PERCENT...AND VISIBILITIES STEADILY IMPROVED.
HOWEVER...THE SUPERSATURATION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE CLOUD
DECK...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER UNTIL THE LATE MAY SUN WARMS
THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS INSOLATION WILL LIFT IFR CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM LAYER AT 850MB MAY MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS.

A DRYLINE WILL INVADE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER DARK...AND MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO TAF SITES. THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              86  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             83  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          82  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            84  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            85  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  69  86  69  84 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261558
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PATCHY FOG AND CLOUD COVER HAVE TAKEN THEIR SWEET TIME MOVING OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE
ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.

ALSO NUDGED POPS EAST SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES WILL
BE ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE MOST SUPPORTIVE SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIE NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR MAY
STILL SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. KEEP IN MIND THAT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...IFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY...PM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A RAIN-COOLED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER EASILY SATURATED DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXITING CLOUD
SHIELD...ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
BUT AS A 30-40KT LLJ LIFTED OVER THE SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER...IFR
CEILINGS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE CEILINGS ARRESTED THE COOLING...AND
AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GENTLY WARMED THE SURFACE...RH VALUES
FELL BELOW 100 PERCENT...AND VISIBILITIES STEADILY IMPROVED.
HOWEVER...THE SUPERSATURATION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE CLOUD
DECK...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER UNTIL THE LATE MAY SUN WARMS
THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS INSOLATION WILL LIFT IFR CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM LAYER AT 850MB MAY MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS.

A DRYLINE WILL INVADE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER DARK...AND MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO TAF SITES. THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              86  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             83  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          82  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            84  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            85  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  69  86  69  84 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261156 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...IFR CIGS/VSBY EARLY...PM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A RAIN-COOLED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER EASILY SATURATED DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXITING CLOUD
SHIELD...ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG.
BUT AS A 30-40KT LLJ LIFTED OVER THE SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER...IFR
CEILINGS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE CEILINGS ARRESTED THE COOLING...AND
AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GENTLY WARMED THE SURFACE...RH VALUES
FELL BELOW 100 PERCENT...AND VISIBILITIES STEADILY IMPROVED.
HOWEVER...THE SUPERSATURATION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE CLOUD
DECK...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER UNTIL THE LATE MAY SUN WARMS
THE SURFACE LAYER. THIS INSOLATION WILL LIFT IFR CEILINGS INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM LAYER AT 850MB MAY MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS.

A DRYLINE WILL INVADE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER DARK...AND MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO TAF SITES. THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              85  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             81  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            85  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            85  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         84  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  69  86  69  84 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE RAIN
COOLED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WARM MOIST GULF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INTERACT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AND AREAS OF FOG
AT AREA TAF SITES. THINK THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z...TYPICALLY THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET CAUGHT UP WITH HOW COOL THE RAIN
COOLED AIR IS BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF AMENDMENTS BASED ON SHORT TERM CLOUD AND
VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF HEATING/FILTERED SUNSHINE. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A SOMEWHAT COOL
TROPOSPHERE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY HIGH
VALUES OF CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG A DRYLINE AFTER 21Z/4PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES...WILL HAVE TO PLACE MORE THAN JUST VCTS IN THE TAF IN
LATER FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              85  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             81  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            85  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            85  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         84  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  69  86  69  84 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260846
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS
THAT AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE
SCALE MCS...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WHEREVER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ACROSS THIS AREA...PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM DUE TO SATURATED SOIL AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE WILL HAVE THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ADVERTISED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/35W WITH THE
CLEARING LINE REACHING THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THE FEELING IS
CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS MOST AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ARRIVE DURING PRIME HEATING TODAY. A SURFACE DRYLINE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG SBCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG/C ARE
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE WITH DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40-45 KTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALL AGREE ON AT LEAST INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ON
THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING/S
LINEAR MCS SHOULD HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST
OF I-35/35W. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW INTO COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIFT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTERWARD...WE EXPECT DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. WE WILL NOT RE-ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SMALL-SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS SMALL-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...HOWEVER
SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF HIGH RES
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO MOVE ANY STORMS
INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND MANY MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN A NEGATIVE-TILTED FASHION. THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET UP FOR
THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS CONTINUES TO EXIST.
FUTURE WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK PROBABLE AND WE WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE NEED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD
DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO
FINALLY SHUT THE SPIGOT OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE. WE CAN ONLY HOPE THIS IS THE CASE AFTER WEEKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE RAIN
COOLED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WARM MOIST GULF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INTERACT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AND AREAS OF FOG
AT AREA TAF SITES. THINK THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z...TYPICALLY THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET CAUGHT UP WITH HOW COOL THE RAIN
COOLED AIR IS BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF AMENDMENTS BASED ON SHORT TERM CLOUD AND
VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF HEATING/FILTERED SUNSHINE. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A SOMEWHAT COOL
TROPOSPHERE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY HIGH
VALUES OF CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG A DRYLINE AFTER 21Z/4PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES...WILL HAVE TO PLACE MORE THAN JUST VCTS IN THE TAF IN
LATER FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  69  86  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
WACO, TX              85  71  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             81  67  85  69  83 /  20  40  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            85  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          83  68  86  70  84 /  20  40  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            85  70  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           84  70  88  70  85 /  20  30  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         84  72  86  71  84 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  88  71  85 /  20  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  69  86  69  84 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260507
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1207 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE RAIN
COOLED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WARM MOIST GULF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INTERACT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS AND AREAS OF FOG
AT AREA TAF SITES. THINK THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z...TYPICALLY THE COOLEST TIME OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET CAUGHT UP WITH HOW COOL THE RAIN
COOLED AIR IS BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF AMENDMENTS BASED ON SHORT TERM CLOUD AND
VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF HEATING/FILTERED SUNSHINE. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A SOMEWHAT COOL
TROPOSPHERE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY HIGH
VALUES OF CAPE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG A DRYLINE AFTER 21Z/4PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT WEST AND
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES...WILL HAVE TO PLACE MORE THAN JUST VCTS IN THE TAF IN
LATER FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH



&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE SQUALL LINE HAS NEARLY PUSHED ALL THE WAY OUT OF
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND WET GROUNDS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN SOME AREAS
WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. AREAS THAT HAVE SOME WIND GENERALLY
HAVE VISIBILITIES NEAR 10 MILES. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG BUT IF
IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
NEAR CHILDRESS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A BAND OF INTENSE AND SEVERE
CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS OUT WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE
HILL COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WERE SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
AFTERWARD...THINK MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE QUIET BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EAST AND THE THREAT ENDS TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND A DRYLINE WILL
ENCROACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER GOES UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF 5500 J/KG TO FEED ON...THUS BEING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAIN.

OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS A RETURN TO
HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OR
EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHS AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL. AS CONVECTION ENDS TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WE
WILL SEE THE SUN RETURN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  71  85  70 /  30  20  20  30  40
WACO, TX              71  86  71  86  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             68  85  69  83  69 /  30  30  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            69  86  70  84  69 /  30  20  20  30  50
MCKINNEY, TX          69  86  70  84  69 /  30  30  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            71  87  71  85  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
TERRELL, TX           71  88  70  85  71 /  30  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  86  71  84  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  88  71  85  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  86  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  30  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260205 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE SQUALL LINE HAS NEARLY PUSHED ALL THE WAY OUT OF
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND WET GROUNDS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN SOME AREAS
WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. AREAS THAT HAVE SOME WIND GENERALLY
HAVE VISIBILITIES NEAR 10 MILES. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG BUT IF
IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

DUNN



&&

.AVIATION...


/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN METROPLEX
FROM WEST TO EAST AND AFFECT TAFS SITES BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPORARY IFR/LIFR VSBY IN
HEAVY RAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND
EXPECT BY 6PM LOCAL AND 23Z TO SEE STORMS EAST OF TAF SITES. WILL
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND SQUALL LINE...BUT BELIEVE
AIRMASS WILL BE TOO WORKED OVER FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND.

FOR WACO MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LINE AND
WILL SHOW A TEMPO FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15KT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. MAY NEED VCTS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SEVERE
PARTS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF ALL OF OUR COUNTIES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 212. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE COOL WITH REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDINESS. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL RECOVER SOME BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW SO WILL AWAIT ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO SEE
HOW ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY PLAY OUT TOMORROW. OTHER THAN
CANCELING THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AND LOWERING POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOW TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S NOW AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
NEAR CHILDRESS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH A BAND OF INTENSE AND SEVERE
CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS OUT WESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE
HILL COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WERE SCATTERED CLUSTERS
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST 30 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GOING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
AFTERWARD...THINK MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE QUIET BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EAST AND THE THREAT ENDS TO THE WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND A DRYLINE WILL
ENCROACH INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER GOES UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF 5500 J/KG TO FEED ON...THUS BEING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAIN.

OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR LESS STORM
COVERAGE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THUS A RETURN TO
HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT FOR UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OR
EASTERN COLORADO THAT COULD AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE HIGHS AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL. AS CONVECTION ENDS TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WE
WILL SEE THE SUN RETURN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A RETURN OF MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BACK TO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  87  70  86  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              61  86  71  86  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             64  82  68  85  69 / 100  20  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            59  86  69  86  70 /  10  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          62  84  69  86  70 /  10  20  30  30  20
DALLAS, TX            62  86  71  87  71 /  10  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           64  85  71  88  70 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  72  86  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            63  87  70  88  71 /   5  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  88  69  86  69 /   5  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities