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000
FXUS64 KFWD 282036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant low level moisture will remain in place across the entire
region until a cold front arrives around the middle of next week.
The combination of this moisture coupled with energy associated
with several upper level impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft
will result in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through the middle of next week.

In the short term we expect a few storms to develop over Central
Texas and the Concho Valley late this afternoon/early this evening
where the cap is the weakest and instability is quite high. There
is no good focus for storms, so we expect coverage to be limited.
However, if storms do develop, additional convection is possible
on any outflows. Hail and lightning will be the primary threats,
especially south of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 35 where
CAPE is in excess of 4000 J/KG.

Sunday morning will be cloudy but rain-free. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
approaches from the west. It appears that storms will be most
numerous across the Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening.
These storms will organize into a complex that will move
east/southeast across the region overnight Sunday through Monday
morning. There is a very good chance that storms could end in
most locations by midday Monday but we will still carry low pops
through Monday night due to timing uncertainties. Storms Sunday
through Monday will have the potential to become strong to severe
as well as to produce locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances will increase again on Tuesday/Tuesday night
as a southern branch upper low approaches from the Desert
Southwest. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely Wednesday when a
stronger upper low moves across the Northern Plains and sends a
strong cold front southward through the Central and Southern
Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind
the cold front and linger across the area through the end of the
week.

Dry and cool air at the surface and a building ridge aloft will
bring mostly clear and cooler conditions next weekend with lows
in the 50s and lower 60s Friday and Saturday and highs mainly in
the 70s and lower 80s.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

Widespread low clouds continue to linger right along the I-35
corridor and areas east. Light winds have generally resulted in
slower erosion of the cloud cover but conditions are expected to
improve through early afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through much of the remainder of the day. Farther
south...visible satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus field
spreading north. This is where the better moisture is located and
it`s northward progress should continue into the evening hours.
Weak forcing will also spread across central Texas later this
afternoon and at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop. Best coverage of thunderstorms will be on
the leading edge of the better moisture...generally west of
Interstate 35 and all of the major airports. So...no thunder is
currently forecast through tonight...although some impacts are
expected for western departures/arrivals through late evening. We
will have to watch for better coverage of storms as they should
try to move east with time.

Otherwise...another round of low clouds are expected across all of
North and Central Texas again tonight persisting into early Sunday
morning.

Dunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  86  69  86  70 /  20  20  40  50  20
Waco                71  86  68  85  69 /  30  30  30  40  20
Paris               68  85  67  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
Denton              69  85  67  85  68 /  20  20  50  50  20
McKinney            69  85  67  84  69 /  20  20  40  50  20
Dallas              72  87  70  86  71 /  20  20  40  50  20
Terrell             70  86  68  86  69 /  10  20  30  40  20
Corsicana           71  86  69  85  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
Temple              71  85  69  83  69 /  30  30  30  40  20
Mineral Wells       69  85  66  84  68 /  20  30  50  50  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281638
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Will send out a quick update to adjust cloud cover and hourly
temp/dewpoint trends. Even though the clouds have been a bit slow
to clear, we are reluctant to lower afternoon highs based on the
very shallow and warm inversion shown on the 12 FWD sounding.

There is still a low chance of a shower or storm late this
afternoon and evening, especially across the southwest zones so
will not adjust pops any.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 721 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
IFR stratus moved into Central and North Texas around 03z and
into the Metroplex 0430-0530z. Expect ceilings improve to MVFR
around 16z. The MVFR ceilings should scatter out 17-18z as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. Expect MVFR ceilings to spread back
northward by 05z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in
the Metroplex late this afternoon /after 21z/ through tonight.
The chances of thunderstorms are low...and have only placed VCSH
after 05z. South winds around 10 knots will prevail through the
period.

At Waco....borderline LIFR/IFR conditions at TAF issuance time
will improve to MVFR late this morning /16-17z/ as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. VFR conditions are expected early
afternoon as the stratus scatters. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible after 21z but the better chances will be mid to late
evening as scattered thunderstorms that develop over the
Concho Valley into the Hill Country move east into Central Texas.
Have placed a VCTS in the Waco starting at 03z with a TEMPO TSRA
for the 03-07z period.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Morning satellite imagery depicts a shield of high clouds from
previous convection associated with the departing shortwave exiting
the region to the east. Patchy dense fog has developed across
portions of Central TX early this morning where skies have
cleared with shallow moisture and light surface winds in place. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 8AM for areas along
and surrounding the I-35 corridor where fog should be the most
widespread through the morning hours. Elsewhere, low stratus has
overspread a large portion of North and Central Texas from the
east as southeast 925mb winds advect in more moist and warmer air.
Expect low clouds and fog to mix out fairly quickly after sunrise
this morning.

The main forecast challenge will be potential for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies this
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s,
and with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees, strong instability
will be present across our entire area. The limiting factor for
storm development will be the apparent absence of lift. However,
high-res models continue to develop isolated storms late this
afternoon primarily across areas west of I-35. This seemingly is
due to a surge of high theta-e air at the nose of the
southeasterly 850mb jet where low-level convergence may be able to
overcome subsidence from weak upper ridging behind the departing
shortwave. The somewhat washed-out dryline does not seem to be the
impetus for initiation in the models for this afternoon. In
addition, we may vaguely be influenced the the left exit region of
a subtropical jet streak draped through northern Mexico which
could spread some weak large-scale ascent over the area. Even
with diabatic heating, we will need some additional forcing to
break a fairly strong cap that should be in place area-wide
today.

At this time, have relatively low expectations for activity this
afternoon, and think the most coverage would be confined to the
Hill Country and our far southwest zones including the
Temple/Killeen area. However, an isolated storm or two seems
possible farther north, even up near the Red River. Should any
storm manage to develop, it could become strong to severe solely
due to the instability present with moderate wind shear. Large
hail would likely be the main severe threat this afternoon. It`s
also possible that if storms develop farther southwest outside
our area they could be ushered into our Central TX counties by the
west/southwest flow aloft late tonight; this solution is supported
by the TT WRF. Have left 20/30 PoPs for today/tonight with low
confidence in placement/coverage of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm potential seems a bit higher on Sunday with weak
troughing aloft and mid-level height falls impinging on the area.
Although we could see some isolated storms during the day, it
appears the better chances will occur late Sunday night into
Monday morning as guidance continues to suggest a complex of
storms developing in the TX Panhandle Sunday night and diving
southeastward as an MCS. North Texas would have the greatest
chance of being impacted should this solution materialize. There
should be some dry time for any outdoor Memorial Day holiday
activities on Sunday as long as the weather is monitored, but
Monday looks like any outdoor plans could be adversely affected
for a large portion of the day.

A trough will deepen to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday which
will increase our chances for additional rain and thunderstorms through
midweek. A late spring cold front should enter Texas Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning which will be the focus for potentially a
few rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Additional post-frontal rainfall would
be possible area-wide through most of Thursday as the front moves
into southern Texas. The GFS and ECMWF have been in decent
agreement with this solution and have also both been trending
faster with the front and the associated upper trough. The good
news from that, should this solution materialize, is that Friday
through Sunday would be dry with slightly below normal
temperatures as an upper ridge builds to our west, bringing at
least a brief break in the active weather pattern.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  72  86  70  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Waco                88  71  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  30  20
Paris               84  69  86  67  83 /  20  20  20  30  50
Denton              87  69  85  66  83 /  20  20  20  50  40
McKinney            86  70  85  68  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Dallas              89  72  88  70  85 /  20  20  20  40  40
Terrell             87  71  87  69  85 /  20  20  20  30  40
Corsicana           88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Temple              87  71  84  69  83 /  20  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       88  70  85  66  83 /  20  20  30  50  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281221
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR stratus moved into Central and North Texas around 03z and
into the Metroplex 0430-0530z. Expect ceilings improve to MVFR
around 16z. The MVFR ceilings should scatter out 17-18z as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. Expect MVFR ceilings to spread back
northward by 05z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in
the Metroplex late this afternoon /after 21z/ through tonight.
The chances of thunderstorms are low...and have only placed VCSH
after 05z. South winds around 10 knots will prevail through the
period.

At Waco....borderline LIFR/IFR conditions at TAF issuance time
will improve to MVFR late this morning /16-17z/ as deeper
vertical mixing occurs. VFR conditions are expected early
afternoon as the stratus scatters. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible after 21z but the better chances will be mid to late
evening as scattered thunderstorms that develop over the
Concho Valley into the Hill Country move east into Central Texas.
Have placed a VCTS in the Waco starting at 03z with a TEMPO TSRA
for the 03-07z period.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Morning satellite imagery depicts a shield of high clouds from
previous convection associated with the departing shortwave exiting
the region to the east. Patchy dense fog has developed across
portions of Central TX early this morning where skies have
cleared with shallow moisture and light surface winds in place. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 8AM for areas along
and surrounding the I-35 corridor where fog should be the most
widespread through the morning hours. Elsewhere, low stratus has
overspread a large portion of North and Central Texas from the
east as southeast 925mb winds advect in more moist and warmer air.
Expect low clouds and fog to mix out fairly quickly after sunrise
this morning.

The main forecast challenge will be potential for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies this
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s,
and with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees, strong instability
will be present across our entire area. The limiting factor for
storm development will be the apparent absence of lift. However,
high-res models continue to develop isolated storms late this
afternoon primarily across areas west of I-35. This seemingly is
due to a surge of high theta-e air at the nose of the
southeasterly 850mb jet where low-level convergence may be able to
overcome subsidence from weak upper ridging behind the departing
shortwave. The somewhat washed-out dryline does not seem to be the
impetus for initiation in the models for this afternoon. In
addition, we may vaguely be influenced the the left exit region of
a subtropical jet streak draped through northern Mexico which
could spread some weak large-scale ascent over the area. Even
with diabatic heating, we will need some additional forcing to
break a fairly strong cap that should be in place area-wide
today.

At this time, have relatively low expectations for activity this
afternoon, and think the most coverage would be confined to the
Hill Country and our far southwest zones including the
Temple/Killeen area. However, an isolated storm or two seems
possible farther north, even up near the Red River. Should any
storm manage to develop, it could become strong to severe solely
due to the instability present with moderate wind shear. Large
hail would likely be the main severe threat this afternoon. It`s
also possible that if storms develop farther southwest outside
our area they could be ushered into our Central TX counties by the
west/southwest flow aloft late tonight; this solution is supported
by the TT WRF. Have left 20/30 PoPs for today/tonight with low
confidence in placement/coverage of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm potential seems a bit higher on Sunday with weak
troughing aloft and mid-level height falls impinging on the area.
Although we could see some isolated storms during the day, it
appears the better chances will occur late Sunday night into
Monday morning as guidance continues to suggest a complex of
storms developing in the TX Panhandle Sunday night and diving
southeastward as an MCS. North Texas would have the greatest
chance of being impacted should this solution materialize. There
should be some dry time for any outdoor Memorial Day holiday
activities on Sunday as long as the weather is monitored, but
Monday looks like any outdoor plans could be adversely affected
for a large portion of the day.

A trough will deepen to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday which
will increase our chances for additional rain and thunderstorms through
midweek. A late spring cold front should enter Texas Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning which will be the focus for potentially a
few rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Additional post-frontal rainfall would
be possible area-wide through most of Thursday as the front moves
into southern Texas. The GFS and ECMWF have been in decent
agreement with this solution and have also both been trending
faster with the front and the associated upper trough. The good
news from that, should this solution materialize, is that Friday
through Sunday would be dry with slightly below normal
temperatures as an upper ridge builds to our west, bringing at
least a brief break in the active weather pattern.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  72  86  70  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Waco                88  71  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  30  20
Paris               84  69  86  67  83 /  20  20  20  30  50
Denton              87  69  85  66  83 /  20  20  20  50  40
McKinney            86  70  85  68  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Dallas              89  72  88  70  85 /  20  20  20  40  40
Terrell             87  71  87  69  85 /  20  20  20  30  40
Corsicana           88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Temple              87  71  84  69  83 /  20  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       88  70  85  66  83 /  20  20  30  50  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ133-
143>145-156>161-174-175.

&&

$$

58/77





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280833
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning satellite imagery depicts a shield of high clouds from
previous convection associated with the departing shortwave exiting
the region to the east. Patchy dense fog has developed across
portions of Central TX early this morning where skies have
cleared with shallow moisture and light surface winds in place. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 8AM for areas along
and surrounding the I-35 corridor where fog should be the most
widespread through the morning hours. Elsewhere, low stratus has
overspread a large portion of North and Central Texas from the
east as southeast 925mb winds advect in more moist and warmer air.
Expect low clouds and fog to mix out fairly quickly after sunrise
this morning.

The main forecast challenge will be potential for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies this
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s,
and with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees, strong instability
will be present across our entire area. The limiting factor for
storm development will be the apparent absence of lift. However,
high-res models continue to develop isolated storms late this
afternoon primarily across areas west of I-35. This seemingly is
due to a surge of high theta-e air at the nose of the
southeasterly 850mb jet where low-level convergence may be able to
overcome subsidence from weak upper ridging behind the departing
shortwave. The somewhat washed-out dryline does not seem to be the
impetus for initiation in the models for this afternoon. In
addition, we may vaguely be influenced the the left exit region of
a subtropical jet streak draped through northern Mexico which
could spread some weak large-scale ascent over the area. Even
with diabatic heating, we will need some additional forcing to
break a fairly strong cap that should be in place area-wide
today.

At this time, have relatively low expectations for activity this
afternoon, and think the most coverage would be confined to the
Hill Country and our far southwest zones including the
Temple/Killeen area. However, an isolated storm or two seems
possible farther north, even up near the Red River. Should any
storm manage to develop, it could become strong to severe solely
due to the instability present with moderate wind shear. Large
hail would likely be the main severe threat this afternoon. It`s
also possible that if storms develop farther southwest outside
our area they could be ushered into our Central TX counties by the
west/southwest flow aloft late tonight; this solution is supported
by the TT WRF. Have left 20/30 PoPs for today/tonight with low
confidence in placement/coverage of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm potential seems a bit higher on Sunday with weak
troughing aloft and mid-level height falls impinging on the area.
Although we could see some isolated storms during the day, it
appears the better chances will occur late Sunday night into
Monday morning as guidance continues to suggest a complex of
storms developing in the TX Panhandle Sunday night and diving
southeastward as an MCS. North Texas would have the greatest
chance of being impacted should this solution materialize. There
should be some dry time for any outdoor Memorial Day holiday
activities on Sunday as long as the weather is monitored, but
Monday looks like any outdoor plans could be adversely affected
for a large portion of the day.

A trough will deepen to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday which
will increase our chances for additional rain and thunderstorms through
midweek. A late spring cold front should enter Texas Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning which will be the focus for potentially a
few rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Additional post-frontal rainfall would
be possible area-wide through most of Thursday as the front moves
into southern Texas. The GFS and ECMWF have been in decent
agreement with this solution and have also both been trending
faster with the front and the associated upper trough. The good
news from that, should this solution materialize, is that Friday
through Sunday would be dry with slightly below normal
temperatures as an upper ridge builds to our west, bringing at
least a brief break in the active weather pattern.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
The upper trough exiting the Plains has left north TX with low
clouds and the potential for some patchy fog overnight. A loop of
the 11-3.9 micron satellite reveals a deck of stratus already on
top of KACT and on the doorstep of DFW. The slow westward creep
will bring the leading edge of this IFR cloud layer to DAL/DFW
and GKY at or shortly after 06Z, then to the Fort Worth Airports
around 07z. Patchy dense fog may become a possibility near the
edge of this cloud deck, so at this time the best potential for
significantly lower surface visibilities should occur just west
of the TAF sites as we approach daybreak. Forecasts will still
show light fog during the early morning hours Friday based on the
latest guidance. Conditions will improve at all areas during the
mid morning hours.

Isolated storms are possible Saturday evening, but the lack of
any model consistency regarding the timing and location of
convection will preclude any mention of TS in the forecasts.
Better potential for showers and storms is expected as a weak
upper level disturbance moves overhead late Sunday.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  72  86  70  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Waco                88  71  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  30  20
Paris               84  69  86  67  83 /  20  20  20  30  50
Denton              87  69  85  66  83 /  20  20  20  50  40
McKinney            86  70  85  68  84 /  20  20  20  40  40
Dallas              89  72  88  70  85 /  20  20  20  40  40
Terrell             87  71  87  69  85 /  20  20  20  30  40
Corsicana           88  72  86  71  85 /  20  20  30  30  30
Temple              87  71  84  69  83 /  20  30  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       88  70  85  66  83 /  20  20  30  50  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ133-144-
145-157>161-174-175.

&&

$$

58/77





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272323
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection has erupted again across the central part of the
country in association with an upper level low currently crossing
the Central Plains. Lightning has increased from just north of the
Red River northward into KS and NE beneath the region of cool mid
level temperatures. These storms may create some routing issues
for northbound traffic but should not have any direct impact on
the DFW area. Meanwhile, subsidence has developed in wake of the
slow moving MCS now extending from northern LA to the upper TX
coastal region. This is expected to prohibit convective
development, and the forecast for all TAF locations will remain
free of any mention of thunder through the end of the TAF cycle.

The main concern will be the development of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and a potential for fog. Both the HRRR and RAP13 have
indicated patchy fog formation after midnight local while pretty
much all other guidance keeps visibilities in good shape. This
forecast will include a little of both, but neither is expected
to create any major problems. The lowest cigs are expected in the
KACT area where an IFR deck is likely after midnight, while MVFR
cigs and light fog will be forecast for the Metroplex during the
overnight hours. Conditions will improve by mid morning Saturday.
The next chance for convection will be associated with a weak
upper level disturbance late Saturday night, just beyond this set
of forecasts.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Dry and subsident air will continue to filter into the region
tonight and will keep all rain and thunderstorms across East Texas
and Louisiana. Therefore...we will cancel the Flash Flood watch
that is currently in affect across the southern portions of the
forecast area.

Even through the dryline will approach the western zones late
this afternoon/early this evening we feel that storms will have a
tough time developing. If an isolated storm were to form on the
dryline it would most likely occur near the Red River, closest to
the departing upper low.

Saturday morning will be mild and quiet with lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. A few showers and storms may develop Saturday
afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave approaching from West
Texas brings increasing large scale lift and mid level moisture.
This shortwave should lift out of the region by Sunday morning but
another disturbance will approach from the west Sunday afternoon.
This second shortwave will be stronger and will most likely result
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday. Better
thunderstorm chances will arrive Sunday night/Monday morning when
a complex of storms from West Texas translates across the region.
It appears that the best chance of storms Sunday night and Monday
will be north of the Interstate 20 corridor.

There will be a decrease in thunderstorm chances behind the
departing complex of storms Monday afternoon/evening.
However, storm chances will quickly return Tuesday in response to
increasing large scale forcing for ascent associated with a slow
moving upper low moving out of the Desert Southwest. Energy from
this system, coupled with abundant low level moisture, will
result in thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday. The best
storm chances will be during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame
when a late season cold front moves through the region. We have
left some low pops in the forecast for next Friday due to timing
uncertainties with the upper system and cold front.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  89  72  86  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Waco                71  89  71  86  69 /  10  20  20  20  30
Paris               69  86  69  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Denton              68  88  69  86  68 /  10  10  20  20  30
McKinney            69  88  70  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Dallas              72  90  72  87  71 /  10  20  20  20  30
Terrell             71  88  71  86  69 /  10  20  20  20  30
Corsicana           72  88  71  86  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Temple              71  88  71  84  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       65  89  69  85  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270125
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
825 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch
219 for western counties of north and central TX. Storms are
firing in this region within an enhanced area of lift associated
with the upper trough over NM/CO. Storms will have the potential
of becoming severe for at least the next couple of hours.
Supercells have already exhibited impressive structure based on
RADAR appearance. It looks like these storms will soon be merging
into a large cluster, possible propagating east to the I-35
corridor prior to midnight. The threat for severe storms should
decrease as storms approach I-35 later this evening, but will
need to be watched for lingering damaging wind potential if it
becomes an organized MCS. Otherwise, another round of storms will
be possible again by tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere recovers
and the main axis of the upper trough crosses the region.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 707 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
The upper trough over the Four-Corners region will work its way
east into the Plains tomorrow. The system will continue to spread
good ascent across much of Texas and OK over the next 24 hours.
Convection across most of North Texas has been impeded by the slow
moving MCS across southeast TX. However, additional storms are
approaching from the west associated with the next disturbance
lifting northeast around the southeast quadrant of the upper
trough. These storms may weaken as the approach the Metroplex and
the Waco area, but should hold together long enough to justify a
VCTS for the 03-07Z timeframe.

Another round of convection will be possible Friday afternoon as
the trough axis reaches the Southern Plains, before activity
shifts east of the region Friday evening.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
southeast sections of the forecast area through late afternoon.
These storms are in an a very moist and unstable environment and
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall along with a
threat of strong winds.

The remainder of North and Central Texas is currently in a region
of subsidence as evident by the 18Z FWD sounding. There is still
very moist air in place across the region and some scattered
showers will be ongoing through late afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop west/southwest of the region on the dryline.
These storms should lift northeast off the dryline into western
North Texas before sunset. The extent and severity of
thunderstorms across the region will be very dependent on how much
the atmosphere can recover and how fast the cap breaks. Since
large scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
upper low will continue to increase, we feel the cap will
eventually break and that storms will increase in coverage from
west to east through the evening. Any storms that develop this
evening will have a potential to become severe, especially west
of the Interstate 35 corridor. Damaging wind and hail will be the
primary hazards. However, there will be an isolated tornado
threat generally west of the US 281 corridor through mid evening.

The most likely scenario is that evening storms will develop into
a complex that will move east/southeast across the region
overnight. Overall, the severe threat overnight will be fairly
low, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase.

By Friday morning the complex of storms should move through the
east/southeast zones. The primary hazard with these storms will be
from heavy rainfall and flooding. Depending on how fast the storms
end on Friday morning...there should be a lull in activity from
late morning through early afternoon. However, storm chances will
increase again Friday afternoon as a final piece of upper level
energy associated with the upper system rotates across the region.
There will be a potential for a few severe storms along with heavy
rainfall Friday afternoon. But again, it will all depend on how
much recovery can take place after morning convection.

We will leave a flash flood watch in effect through Friday
afternoon south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens.
This area will likely see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday
afternoon. There should even be a few spots that receive over 6
inches of rainfall before Friday evening.

Storm chances will end from west to east Friday afternoon/evening
with the departing upper trough. However, North and Central Texas
will remain in an active weather pattern through the Memorial
weekend and into next week as another upper trough develops across
the southwestern CONUS. Although it will be difficult to pinpoint
the timing and locations for storms any particular day,
atmospheric moisture will remain high through the week and any
perturbations in the flow could result in storms, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Therefore, we will leave
chance pops every day next week.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  83  71  89  71 /  70  70  40  20  10
Waco                72  83  71  88  70 /  60  70  40  20  10
Paris               70  78  68  85  69 /  70  80  60  30  10
Denton              70  82  68  88  68 /  70  70  30  20  10
McKinney            71  81  69  87  69 /  70  80  40  20  10
Dallas              72  83  72  89  72 /  70  70  40  20  10
Terrell             72  81  70  87  70 /  70  80  50  20  10
Corsicana           72  82  71  88  70 /  60  80  50  30  10
Temple              72  83  70  87  70 /  60  70  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       70  86  67  88  69 /  70  70  20  10  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261804
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
This morning`s convective complex continues to move off to the
east of the TAF sites. In its wake, cigs have gone VFR outside of
shra/tsra. Later this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the eastward-advancing dryline near the Texas Low
Rolling Plains/eastern Texas Panhandle region. Current
indications are that a line of showers and storms will move into
the metroplex late this evening and into the early overnight
hours. Any storms would pose a risk for hail and strong winds
given the availability of very strong instability and increasing
wind profiles.

After this activity clears the area, low MVFR and IFR cigs are
expected to re-develop with the potential for showers lingering
across the area. At this time, have not included mention of TS
during the late overnight period due to uncertainties in the
timing and and coverage of precipitation, but this will be refined
in future forecasts.

For the DFW extended TAF, have indicated precip-free conditions
and MVFR cigs as early-morning precip moves east, but it is
entirely possible another round of showers and storms re-develops
and impacts the region during the late afternoon tomorrow, but
confidence is much too low in this to include in the current
issuance.

For the ACT TAF, have prevailed VCTS and -TSRA this afternoon as
earlier convection is showing signs of back-building in the
vicinity of an outflow boundary. Another line of showers and
storms is expected to move east this evening along with IFR cigs
into tomorrow morning.

Carlaw

&&

.UPDATE...

Morning convection has produced rain amounts in excess of 2 inches
over a short period of time generally across the Central Texas
counties of the forecast area. Storms should continue to
develop/back build and train over the same region through the
afternoon. Since the atmosphere is so moist and unstable we have
decided that a flash flood watch would be necessary. The watch is
essentially south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to
Athens and begins at noon today and goes through 6 pm Friday.

We still anticipate a threat for severe storms this afternoon and
evening...beginning in the west this afternoon on the dryline.
Shear, instability and lift should all be in place for severe
storms to develop.

The only changes necessary with this update will be to add the
flash flood watch and to adjust the QPF up mainly in the watch
area.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/
A thunderstorm complex, associated with an approaching shortwave,
is currently impacting the Concho Valley. Rain (with isolated
lightning strikes) from the downstream anvil has reached the
western edge of our CWA. As the upper impulse continues to east,
showers and thunderstorms will spread across North and Central
Texas today. Despite maritime tropical dew points at the surface,
and the instability they portend, the activity this morning will
be elevated. The lapse rates aloft will not be extraordinary and
expect the morning storms will primarily pose a lightning threat.

The 00Z sounding from Fort Worth showed that a formidable cap
remained. Even in our western zones, where the sun pushed
temperatures over 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon with dew points
were in the mid 70s, the cumulus field proved that the inhibition
was as widespread as it was strong. The lift associated with the
initial shortwave today should weaken the inversion to some extent
today, but morning rainfall will likely yield a cooler boundary
layer that is equally unable to overcome it. As a result, the
showers and thunderstorms will likely remain elevated into the
afternoon hours. Short-range guidance is literally all over the
map with respect to the location of the elevated convection this
afternoon, but expect the bulk of the forcing with be in areas
east of the I-35 corridor during the latter half of the day. Some
surface-based (potentially severe) convection will be possible
this afternoon mainly west of I-35, particularly those areas that
remain largely free of precipitation this morning. SBCAPE values
in our western zones should be less than the eye-popping numbers
we saw yesterday but could still yield very strong updrafts
supportive of large hail and damaging downbursts.

With the main upper trough still upstream, it is unlikely this
passing shortwave will veer or intensify the flow beneath it. This
means that the dryline will likely remain across West Texas,
perhaps even farther west than it was Wednesday afternoon.
Regardless of its position, there should be little if any
downglide in the wake of the departing impulse, and the dryline
may again be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon.
This activity would likely maintain its intensity into the evening
hours as it approaches our western zones. These storms would pose
a significant severe threat with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. This activity may congeal into a complex that would
reach the I-35 corridor after midnight. Although the intensity may
steadily diminish overnight, there would still be a continued
hail/wind threat into the morning commute across our eastern
zones.

The main upper trough will emerge from the high terrain of the
southern Rockies on Friday, dragging its final and most intense
spoke of lift across Texas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will impact North and Central Texas, with primarily a heavy rain
and flooding threat. However, with considerable instability still
in place, some strong/severe storms will be possible. One of the
favored areas will be Central Texas, the convection within which
may consume the bulk of the moisture flux. Another favored area
will be our western zones, which may see enough sunshine to allow
for surface-based thunderstorms late in the day. In addition,
dryline convection may enter our northwest zones late in the
afternoon or into Friday evening.

Although oppressive humidity will remain on Saturday, North and
Central Texas may experience a rare sunny afternoon, particularly
in areas along and west of the I-35 corridor. But while you`re
at the pool, the next upper trough will be deepening on the West
Coast. Rain chances will increase late Sunday into Memorial Day,
and the unsettled pattern looks to continue throughout the
upcoming week.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  70  82  70  89 /  60  60  70  40  20
Waco                83  72  84  70  90 /  70  60  70  40  20
Paris               81  69  78  68  85 /  60  70  80  60  30
Denton              83  69  82  67  88 /  60  70  70  30  20
McKinney            82  70  81  67  86 /  60  60  80  40  20
Dallas              84  70  83  71  89 /  60  60  70  40  20
Terrell             83  72  82  70  88 /  60  60  80  50  20
Corsicana           82  71  81  70  88 /  60  60  80  50  30
Temple              82  72  84  71  89 /  70  60  70  40  30
Mineral Wells       82  68  85  65  89 /  60  70  70  20  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

$$





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