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000
FXUS64 KFWD 181703 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS STALLED FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO CORSICANA TO PALESTINE. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT SO FAR LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AS A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH WEST TEXAS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. NO CURRENT CHANGES
TO THE WATCH ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 715 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY PREVAILING THUNDER IN WACO FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
MIDDAY...WE FEEL THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER
AT THE METRO SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET AND POSSIBLY
INTO MID EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES. ALL
STORMS SHOULD END BY MID EVENING BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN WACO
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT FTW AND AFW.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE METRO TAF SITES BY 11Z FRIDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  40  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-
156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181703 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS STALLED FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO CORSICANA TO PALESTINE. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT SO FAR LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AS A MCV ASSOCIATED
WITH WEST TEXAS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. NO CURRENT CHANGES
TO THE WATCH ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 715 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY PREVAILING THUNDER IN WACO FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
MIDDAY...WE FEEL THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER
AT THE METRO SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET AND POSSIBLY
INTO MID EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES. ALL
STORMS SHOULD END BY MID EVENING BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN WACO
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT FTW AND AFW.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE METRO TAF SITES BY 11Z FRIDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  40  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-
156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181215
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY PREVAILING THUNDER IN WACO FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
MIDDAY...WE FEEL THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER
AT THE METRO SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET AND POSSIBLY
INTO MID EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES. ALL
STORMS SHOULD END BY MID EVENING BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN WACO
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT FTW AND AFW.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE METRO TAF SITES BY 11Z FRIDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  30  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-156>162-
174-175.


&&

$$

79/09






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181215
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY PREVAILING THUNDER IN WACO FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
MIDDAY...WE FEEL THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER
AT THE METRO SITES FROM 20Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET AND POSSIBLY
INTO MID EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SHORT WAVE MOVES. ALL
STORMS SHOULD END BY MID EVENING BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN WACO
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AS A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT AFFECT FTW AND AFW.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE METRO TAF SITES BY 11Z FRIDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  30  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-156>162-
174-175.


&&

$$

79/09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180859
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WORKED ITS
WAY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE KACT AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OFF TO OUR
WEST CREATED LOCALIZED FLOODING...FORTUNATELY NOT ON ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ARISE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE SPINS OFF WHAT
REMAINS OF ODILE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A VCTS GROUP AT AREA TAF SITES WITH
THE BELIEF THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER... WE WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BASED SOLELY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  30  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 180859
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FIRST PERIOD.
AFTER A ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SAME AREA TODAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE WATCH WILL COVER 12 COUNTIES AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SIZEABLE AREA OF 2 INCH AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR AN 850 MB BOUNDARY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BROWNWOOD TO HOUSTON AT MIDDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS AND HIGH PW VALUES. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAPPENED TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 AROUND TEMPLE TO 30 PERCENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A NOTICEABLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE.

FOR THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES AND A LESS-THAN-
INTENSE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
COOL/DRY PUSH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. 09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WORKED ITS
WAY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE KACT AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OFF TO OUR
WEST CREATED LOCALIZED FLOODING...FORTUNATELY NOT ON ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ARISE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE SPINS OFF WHAT
REMAINS OF ODILE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A VCTS GROUP AT AREA TAF SITES WITH
THE BELIEF THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER... WE WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BASED SOLELY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  71  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
WACO, TX              87  70  89  71  92 /  60  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             89  69  89  68  90 /  30  10  10   5  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  68  89  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            89  71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           87  68  90  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  69  90  70  91 /  50  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            87  70  88  70  91 /  80  30  40  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  68  88  69  90 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ141>143-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180442
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WORKED ITS
WAY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE KACT AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OFF TO OUR
WEST CREATED LOCALIZED FLOODING...FORTUNATELY NOT ON ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ARISE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE SPINS OFF WHAT
REMAINS OF ODILE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A VCTS GROUP AT AREA TAF SITES WITH
THE BELIEF THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER... WE WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BASED SOLELY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.



&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF NUISANCE FLOODING OR POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECENT
LIFT AND A WEAK LLJ. ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TODAY/S EARLIER
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A RICH MOISTURE AXIS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOME WHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY COULD BE NOTED IN THE FORECASTED THETA-E FIELDS AND THE
850-700 MB WIND FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARIED ON THE LOCATION
OF THE THIS AXIS...THEY ALL HAD AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING SOME WHERE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...GENERALLY AROUND
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE SOUTH ALREADY HAVE FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE. WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL
DETERMINATIONS OF THE NEED FOR AND LOCATION OF A WATCH. THE 00Z
NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO ALSO SUPPORT THIS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE FEEL WE HAVE SOME TIME TO SEE HOW
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRENDS AND ALSO ANALYZE THE FULL 00Z
MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS ON A FLASH/FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  86  71  89  70 /  60  80  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 180442
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WORKED ITS
WAY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF THE KACT AREA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OFF TO OUR
WEST CREATED LOCALIZED FLOODING...FORTUNATELY NOT ON ANY OF THE
AREA TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ARISE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE SPINS OFF WHAT
REMAINS OF ODILE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN A VCTS GROUP AT AREA TAF SITES WITH
THE BELIEF THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO BE WORTH MENTIONING AT AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER... WE WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BASED SOLELY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.



&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF NUISANCE FLOODING OR POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECENT
LIFT AND A WEAK LLJ. ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TODAY/S EARLIER
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A RICH MOISTURE AXIS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOME WHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY COULD BE NOTED IN THE FORECASTED THETA-E FIELDS AND THE
850-700 MB WIND FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARIED ON THE LOCATION
OF THE THIS AXIS...THEY ALL HAD AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING SOME WHERE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...GENERALLY AROUND
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE SOUTH ALREADY HAVE FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE. WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL
DETERMINATIONS OF THE NEED FOR AND LOCATION OF A WATCH. THE 00Z
NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO ALSO SUPPORT THIS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE FEEL WE HAVE SOME TIME TO SEE HOW
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRENDS AND ALSO ANALYZE THE FULL 00Z
MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS ON A FLASH/FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  86  71  89  70 /  60  80  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180311 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF NUISANCE FLOODING OR POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECENT
LIFT AND A WEAK LLJ. ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TODAY/S EARLIER
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A RICH MOISTURE AXIS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOME WHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY COULD BE NOTED IN THE FORECASTED THETA-E FIELDS AND THE
850-700 MB WIND FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARIED ON THE LOCATION
OF THE THIS AXIS...THEY ALL HAD AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING SOME WHERE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...GENERALLY AROUND
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE SOUTH ALREADY HAVE FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE. WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL
DETERMINATIONS OF THE NEED FOR AND LOCATION OF A WATCH. THE 00Z
NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO ALSO SUPPORT THIS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE FEEL WE HAVE SOME TIME TO SEE HOW
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRENDS AND ALSO ANALYZE THE FULL 00Z
MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS ON A FLASH/FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS TYPICALLY YIELDS HOT AND MUNDANE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY NORTHEAST AND EAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE AND BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES.

FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...THIS MEANS PERIODS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE METROPLEX ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING LATER IN THE WACO
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR KACT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 03Z WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WE MAY ADD VCSH AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  86  71  89  70 /  60  80  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/82







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180311 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF NUISANCE FLOODING OR POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECENT
LIFT AND A WEAK LLJ. ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TODAY/S EARLIER
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A RICH MOISTURE AXIS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOME WHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY COULD BE NOTED IN THE FORECASTED THETA-E FIELDS AND THE
850-700 MB WIND FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARIED ON THE LOCATION
OF THE THIS AXIS...THEY ALL HAD AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING SOME WHERE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...GENERALLY AROUND
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE SOUTH ALREADY HAVE FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE. WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL
DETERMINATIONS OF THE NEED FOR AND LOCATION OF A WATCH. THE 00Z
NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO ALSO SUPPORT THIS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE FEEL WE HAVE SOME TIME TO SEE HOW
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRENDS AND ALSO ANALYZE THE FULL 00Z
MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS ON A FLASH/FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS TYPICALLY YIELDS HOT AND MUNDANE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY NORTHEAST AND EAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE AND BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES.

FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...THIS MEANS PERIODS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE METROPLEX ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING LATER IN THE WACO
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR KACT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 03Z WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WE MAY ADD VCSH AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  86  71  89  70 /  60  80  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 172318
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS TYPICALLY YIELDS HOT AND MUNDANE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY NORTHEAST AND EAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE AND BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES.

FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...THIS MEANS PERIODS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE METROPLEX ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING LATER IN THE WACO
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR KACT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 03Z WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WE MAY ADD VCSH AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.



30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  50  60  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 172318
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS TYPICALLY YIELDS HOT AND MUNDANE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY NORTHEAST AND EAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE AND BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES.

FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...THIS MEANS PERIODS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE METROPLEX ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING LATER IN THE WACO
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR KACT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 03Z WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WE MAY ADD VCSH AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.



30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  50  60  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 172055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING ANY SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A DECAYING MCS FROM OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING MAKING IT INTO THE
METROPLEX IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCLUSION INTO LATER
TAFS IS NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 UTC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES
AND HEATING COMMENCES LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN METROPLEX
TAFS.


MVFR STRATUS AT WACO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 20-21Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED
A VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20-01Z PERIOD. AFTER 01Z...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
AFTER 09Z EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH WITH IFR TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS AND ALSO SOME FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING /AROUND 16Z/.

15/58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  50  60  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 172055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING ANY SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A DECAYING MCS FROM OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING MAKING IT INTO THE
METROPLEX IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCLUSION INTO LATER
TAFS IS NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 UTC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES
AND HEATING COMMENCES LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN METROPLEX
TAFS.


MVFR STRATUS AT WACO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 20-21Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED
A VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20-01Z PERIOD. AFTER 01Z...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
AFTER 09Z EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH WITH IFR TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS AND ALSO SOME FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING /AROUND 16Z/.

15/58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  50  60  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  40  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 171752 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCSH AT METROPLEX TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY IMPACTING ANY SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A DECAYING MCS FROM OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING MAKING IT INTO THE
METROPLEX IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCLUSION INTO LATER
TAFS IS NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 UTC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES
AND HEATING COMMENCES LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN METROPLEX
TAFS.


MVFR STRATUS AT WACO SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 20-21Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE PLACED
A VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20-01Z PERIOD. AFTER 01Z...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
AFTER 09Z EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH WITH IFR TO LOWER END
MVFR CEILINGS AND ALSO SOME FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING /AROUND 16Z/.

15/58

&&


.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 1 PM. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE DAYBREAK SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE HAS NEARLY DISPERSED AS OF 10 AM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 171516 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 1 PM. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE DAYBREAK SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE HAS NEARLY DISPERSED AS OF 10 AM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 709 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME MVFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THESE DENSE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER AT WACO FROM 22Z
UNTIL 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND
LEAVE BEHIND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS SO WE WILL ONLY
CARRY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25









000
FXUS64 KFWD 171516 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 1 PM. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED BEFORE DAYBREAK SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE HAS NEARLY DISPERSED AS OF 10 AM. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 709 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME MVFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THESE DENSE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER AT WACO FROM 22Z
UNTIL 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND
LEAVE BEHIND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS SO WE WILL ONLY
CARRY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 171209
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME MVFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THESE DENSE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER AT WACO FROM 22Z
UNTIL 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND
LEAVE BEHIND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS SO WE WILL ONLY
CARRY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.





79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/09






000
FXUS64 KFWD 171209
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME MVFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND MIDDAY. LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THESE DENSE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BEST
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER AT WACO FROM 22Z
UNTIL 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND
LEAVE BEHIND ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS SO WE WILL ONLY
CARRY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.





79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 170839
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09






000
FXUS64 KFWD 170839
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 170434 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. 58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  40  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 170025 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. ALSO
WILL ADD VCSH TO KACT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/










000
FXUS64 KFWD 170025 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. ALSO
WILL ADD VCSH TO KACT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/









000
FXUS64 KFWD 162358 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 162358 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 162050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 162050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 161748 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES AS THINNING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              92  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 161748 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES AS THINNING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              92  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 161745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58











000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58










000
FXUS64 KFWD 161142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  72  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  30  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  30  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  30  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160847
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  72  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  30  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  30  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  30  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&


.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&


.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 152030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

25

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.

STALLEY

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SO WILL
LEAVE VCSH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO VSBYS EVEN WHEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

STALLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  89  74  91  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  86  69  88  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  89  71  90  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  87  70  88  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  88  74  90  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  88  71  89  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  89  72  90  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  89  72  89  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  87  70  89  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25/77






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