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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281131
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281131
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281131
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281131
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/81




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280804
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280804
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL...BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY SLIDE INTO THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THAT ARE
NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LA/MS COAST TODAY AND SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 70S...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  94  76  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  74  95  73  95 /   0  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             91  71  91  70  93 /   0  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  74  94  73  95 /   5  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  73  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  94  77  95 /   5  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  93  72  94 /   0  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  94  71  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  71  96 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
THE LATEST HIGH RES TTU WRF DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE LATEST TAF AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTHWEST
OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTHWEST
OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTHWEST
OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272102
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272102
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL UNDERGO MODERATE CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE NET EFFECT TO NORTH TEXAS`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
MINOR. IN GENERAL...WARM AND PREDOMINATELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE AS WE EXIT THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

IN THE NEAR TERM...NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM/AZ. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OK ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PROBABLY
WON`T HAVE ENOUGH UMPHH TO MAKE IT BEYOND THE RED RIVER...BUT
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT...IN KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP...THEN DISSIPATE OVER
OK LATER SAT...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS N TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE OTHER PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SE LA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD WOBBLE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS FEATURE...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TS ERIKA. IN GENERAL
THOUGH...THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...LIMITING OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT SOME SPARSE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUE-THURS IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...AM SKEPTICAL THAT
THIS LOW WILL MANAGE TO WORK ANY FARTHER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY...DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A TAD DRIER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO...KEEPING DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES FROM BECOMING TOO OUTRAGEOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  98  75  97  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              67  99  73  98  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  93  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  99  72  96  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  97  72  95  72 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  98  76  97  76 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  96  72  94  72 /   0   0  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  98  72  97  70 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271750 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  68  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  69  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271750 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  68  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  69  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271750 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  68  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  69  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271750 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...VFR THROUGHOUT.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL SHED SOME
CIRRUS...AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLUTTER THE
SKIES ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
METROPLEX SITES. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY LAYER BENEATH THE CIRRUS
WILL PRECLUDE LOW/MID CLOUDS AT METROPLEX SITES. BUT IN CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE AMPLE...SCATTERED
DAYTIME CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE CORNERPOST.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  68  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  69  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271130
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271130
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271130
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271130
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270842
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270842
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WAS NOTICEABLE YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME OVERNIGHT...
THIS MORNINGS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW
/20 PERCENT/ CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF I-20 FOR SATURDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE REGION
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST MAY REACH 100
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO FAR EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AND
THERE HAS NOT BEEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS...HAVE JUST PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND
ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
WACO, TX              98  67  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             93  67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENTON, TX            98  69  99  72  96 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          95  67  97  72  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            98  74  98  76  97 /   0   0   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           94  69  96  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  97  72  95 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  68  98  72  97 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT DAY. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270132
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270132
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270132
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270132
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS ARE NOW
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LOWEST. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  74  97  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              67  96  71  99  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  96  71  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  94  70  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            73  97  75  98  77 /   0   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  94  70  95  72 /   0   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  95  71  97  73 /   0   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  96  70  98  72 /   0   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  96  71  98  73 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 262344
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 262344
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 262344
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 262344
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z FRI...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NM/WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<05KTS) OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z THURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN
CO/NM.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 262005
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SO IF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORTS.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 262005
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY POSSIBLY
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THERE IS A SMALL AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS LYING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT
THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION...SQUASHING MOST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S IS ALREADY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS WITH NO RAIN MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WEST OF THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND THUS IT WILL
FEEL MARKEDLY DRIER OUTSIDE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A LITTLE MORE AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA THAT MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND MOST MODELS...MINUS THE NAM...KEEP
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WARRANTS KEEPING
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AIDING IN SOME LIFT ALONG
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTH FLOW ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL RESIDE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND THEN
RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE
THE LOW WILL RESIDE BUT IT WILL LIKELY WANDER OVER AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME MORNING
STRATUS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK. IF IT DOES RAIN NEXT
WEEK...NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN...BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RELIEF FROM FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MAY ALSO COME WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SO IF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORTS.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  74  97  76 /   5   5   0  10  10
WACO, TX              69  96  71  99  73 /  10   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             66  92  68  93  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            69  96  71  97  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          68  94  70  95  73 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  97  75  98  77 /   5   5   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  94  70  95  72 /   5   5   0   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  95  71  97  73 /   5   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  70  98  72 /  10   5   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  96  71  98  73 /  10   5   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261732 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SO IF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY STILL
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...IF ANY...COMBINED
WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 10 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AND
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON HOURLY TRENDS THIS MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              96  67  97  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  64  92  65  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  69  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  69  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            96  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  67  94  69  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  67  95  70  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  97  69  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  69  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261732 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SO IF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY STILL
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...IF ANY...COMBINED
WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 10 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AND
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON HOURLY TRENDS THIS MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              96  67  97  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  64  92  65  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  69  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  69  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            96  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  67  94  69  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  67  95  70  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  97  69  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  69  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261732 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS CURRENTLY SO IF ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AIRPORTS.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY STILL
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...IF ANY...COMBINED
WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 10 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AND
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON HOURLY TRENDS THIS MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              96  67  97  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  64  92  65  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  69  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  69  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            96  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  67  94  69  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  67  95  70  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  97  69  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  69  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261622 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY STILL
LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...IF ANY...COMBINED
WITH A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY 10 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY AND
MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON HOURLY TRENDS THIS MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  73  97  73  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              96  67  97  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  64  92  65  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  69  98 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  69  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            96  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           94  67  94  69  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  67  95  70  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            96  68  97  69  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  69  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260829
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  73  96  73  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              95  67  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  71  98 /   5   0   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          92  65  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  73  96  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           93  67  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         93  67  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            94  68  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  68  96  69  98 /   5   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260829
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ALONG ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
RED RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP SPREAD AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  73  96  73  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              95  67  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            94  66  96  71  98 /   5   0   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          92  65  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  73  96  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           93  67  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         93  67  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            94  68  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  68  96  69  98 /   5   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260430 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260430 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260430 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS EVENING STILL HAS WINDS VARIABLE
AT KACT AND OTHER NEARBY AIRPORTS....THUS WILL CALL THEM VRB03KT
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION JUSTIFIES EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260245
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260245
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260245
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260245
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDDED
PARAMETERS TO ALIGN WITH TRENDS. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
REQUIRED. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 252323 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252323 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 252323 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252323 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...

WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR DURING THIS FORECAST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT MOST OR ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 02Z WITH SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. KACT IS ALREADY SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH KFWS NOW AND SHOULD AFFECT KGKY...KFTW AND KAFW AROUND
00Z. KDFW MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 01Z. DO NOT EXPECT
KDAL TO BE AFFECTED.

AFTER 02Z...WINDS WILL RETURN EAST AND SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM. THE
REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /  10   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /  10   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /  10   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /  10   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /  10   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATUERS SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY
INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM.
THE REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHESTERN FLANK OF
THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERMN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWONG WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /   5   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /   5   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATUERS SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY
INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM.
THE REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHESTERN FLANK OF
THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERMN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWONG WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /   5   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /   5   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL ALL BUT STAY PUT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EASTERN REACHES
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATUERS SEASONABLY
WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH IN OUR RESULTANT NORTH FLOW ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE PUSHED MOSTLY
INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES..TAKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THEM.
THE REMNANTS OF OUR DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ALSO HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ALL TOO COMMON FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE NORTHESTERN FLANK OF
THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHERMN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE FOLLOWONG WORKWEEK...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL REGION AND CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  72  97  74 /   5   5   0   0   5
WACO, TX              71  97  69  98  70 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  94  66  92  67 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            68  95  65  96  69 /   5   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  95  64  96  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            73  96  72  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  95  65  95  68 /   5   5   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  95  67  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  69  98  70 /  30   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  68  97  70 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WACO
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251618 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WHILE CELL MOVEMENT WAS SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY LEAD TO STORMS MOVING INTO THE DFW METRO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH VCTS THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE DFW TERMINALS.

ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...AND THESE MORNING STORMS MAY
ALSO LEAVE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COMPLICATING THIS
AFTERNOON`S MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SOUTH OF THE METRO
AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED FOR KACT AS A RESULT.

REGARDING WINDS...THEY APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AT GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251618 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE MORNING
ACTIVITY OCCURRED...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE
BEEN GENERATED BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
DIFFUSE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. SO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
RAIN-COOLED AIR HAS DELAYED SURFACE HEATING BY A FEW HOURS AND
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WHILE CELL MOVEMENT WAS SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY LEAD TO STORMS MOVING INTO THE DFW METRO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH VCTS THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE DFW TERMINALS.

ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA...JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...AND THESE MORNING STORMS MAY
ALSO LEAVE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COMPLICATING THIS
AFTERNOON`S MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SOUTH OF THE METRO
AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED FOR KACT AS A RESULT.

REGARDING WINDS...THEY APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AT GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  72  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              99  71  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             89  62  94  66  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            95  68  95  65  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  65  95  64  96 /  30   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  73  96  72  97 /  30   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           91  68  95  65  95 /  50   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         95  70  95  67  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  73  97  69  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  70  94  68  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/30




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