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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260449
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAFS...SO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW.

EARLY MORNING STRATUS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA TAF SITES ON
MONDAY...BUT THE ONSET OF STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO BE JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT VALID FORECAST PERIOD. STRATUS LOOKS MOST LIKELY OVER
THE WACO AREA AT 10-11Z... AND THEN OVER THE DFW AREA AT 13-14Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT 100 PERCENT THAT STRATUS WILL MAKE IT OVER AREA
TAF SITES ANYWAYS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER AT THE TIMES MENTIONED ABOVE.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH AT AREA AIRPORTS FOR
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE
90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF
89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME
IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT
OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT
READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE
IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES
VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS
AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE
GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY
TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S AREA WIDE.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  90  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX            61  90  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          61  89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX            66  90  66  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           63  89  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  87  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  91  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 260449
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAFS...SO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW.

EARLY MORNING STRATUS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA TAF SITES ON
MONDAY...BUT THE ONSET OF STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY TO BE JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT VALID FORECAST PERIOD. STRATUS LOOKS MOST LIKELY OVER
THE WACO AREA AT 10-11Z... AND THEN OVER THE DFW AREA AT 13-14Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT 100 PERCENT THAT STRATUS WILL MAKE IT OVER AREA
TAF SITES ANYWAYS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER AT THE TIMES MENTIONED ABOVE.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH AT AREA AIRPORTS FOR
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE
90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF
89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME
IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT
OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT
READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE
IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES
VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS
AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE
GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY
TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S AREA WIDE.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  90  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX            61  90  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          61  89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX            66  90  66  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           63  89  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  87  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  91  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 252321
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH AT AREA AIRPORTS FOR
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE
90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF
89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME
IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT
OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT
READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE
IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES
VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS
AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE
GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY
TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S AREA WIDE.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  90  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX            61  90  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          61  89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX            66  90  66  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           63  89  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  87  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  91  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 252021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE
90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF
89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME
IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT
OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT
READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE
IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES
VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS
AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE
GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY
TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S AREA WIDE.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 8-12 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
HOUR TAF FOR KDFW WILL REFLECT WINDS OF 19016KT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS WILL ARRIVE WELL AFTER THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

09/GP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  90  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX            61  90  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          61  89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX            66  90  66  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           63  89  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  87  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  91  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /












000
FXUS64 KFWD 251751 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 8-12 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
HOUR TAF FOR KDFW WILL REFLECT WINDS OF 19016KT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS WILL ARRIVE WELL AFTER THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

09/GP

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST REGION. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING WHILE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 90 DEGREES FORECAST FOR
DFW WOULD BE A RECORD IF ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WACO WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THEIR RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1994.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MARCH STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE NATION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THEREFORE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS TIME WE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  65  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              89  61  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             88  62  85  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            91  61  87  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  61  86  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            90  66  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           89  63  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  63  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            87  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 251751 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 8-12 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
HOUR TAF FOR KDFW WILL REFLECT WINDS OF 19016KT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS WILL ARRIVE WELL AFTER THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

09/GP

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST REGION. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING WHILE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 90 DEGREES FORECAST FOR
DFW WOULD BE A RECORD IF ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WACO WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THEIR RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1994.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MARCH STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE NATION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THEREFORE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS TIME WE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  65  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              89  61  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             88  62  85  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            91  61  87  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  61  86  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            90  66  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           89  63  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  63  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            87  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 251113 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12 TAFS/

.CONCERNS...NONE.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VFR WITH MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SSW WINDS 6-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL IN THE TAFS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST REGION. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING WHILE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 90 DEGREES FORECAST FOR
DFW WOULD BE A RECORD IF ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WACO WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THEIR RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1994.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MARCH STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE NATION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THEREFORE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS TIME WE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  65  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              89  61  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             88  62  85  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            91  61  87  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  61  86  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            90  66  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           89  63  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  63  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            87  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 251113 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12 TAFS/

.CONCERNS...NONE.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VFR WITH MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SSW WINDS 6-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL IN THE TAFS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST REGION. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING WHILE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 90 DEGREES FORECAST FOR
DFW WOULD BE A RECORD IF ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WACO WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THEIR RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1994.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MARCH STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE NATION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THEREFORE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS TIME WE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  65  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              89  61  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             88  62  85  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            91  61  87  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  61  86  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            90  66  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           89  63  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  63  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            87  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 250828
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST REGION. IN BETWEEN...A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING WHILE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 90 DEGREES FORECAST FOR
DFW WOULD BE A RECORD IF ATTAINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WACO WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THEIR RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1994.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MARCH STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE NATION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THEREFORE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS. AT
THIS TIME WE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES...KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL AIR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 7 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY. 58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  65  89  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              89  61  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             88  62  85  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            91  61  87  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  61  86  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            90  66  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           89  63  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  63  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            87  61  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KFWD 250432 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 7 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY. 58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS
RIDGE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S WEST TO THE MID 80S EAST. DFW AND WACO ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD HIGH FOR
DFW. THE RECORD FOR DFW IS 89...WHILE THE RECORD AT WACO OF 94
LOOKS OUT OF REACH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ALSO SOME MORNING
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL CREEP
UP A LITTLE EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS/MOISTURE.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN LIFT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SKIRT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S OVER THE NW ZONES...BUT LOW-MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SO QUICKLY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE ITS SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER
TEXAS...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES THAT RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE GFS SUGGESTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN...THE CANADIAN HIGHLIGHTS WEDNESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF IS FOCUSING IN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO SOME SERIOUS TIMING
DISCREPANCIES...WILL BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHEN THE MODELS CAN HONE IN ON A MORE CONSISTENT TIME
FRAME...THESE POPS CAN BE RAISED/LOWERED AS NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
40S FOR LOWS AND 60S FOR HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              59  90  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             59  87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  91  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  90  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  89  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            59  89  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91








000
FXUS64 KFWD 242340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 7 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS
RIDGE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S WEST TO THE MID 80S EAST. DFW AND WACO ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD HIGH FOR
DFW. THE RECORD FOR DFW IS 89...WHILE THE RECORD AT WACO OF 94
LOOKS OUT OF REACH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ALSO SOME MORNING
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL CREEP
UP A LITTLE EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS/MOISTURE.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN LIFT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SKIRT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S OVER THE NW ZONES...BUT LOW-MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SO QUICKLY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE ITS SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER
TEXAS...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES THAT RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE GFS SUGGESTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN...THE CANADIAN HIGHLIGHTS WEDNESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF IS FOCUSING IN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO SOME SERIOUS TIMING
DISCREPANCIES...WILL BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHEN THE MODELS CAN HONE IN ON A MORE CONSISTENT TIME
FRAME...THESE POPS CAN BE RAISED/LOWERED AS NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
40S FOR LOWS AND 60S FOR HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              59  90  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             59  87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  91  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  90  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  89  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            59  89  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91











000
FXUS64 KFWD 242028
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS
RIDGE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S WEST TO THE MID 80S EAST. DFW AND WACO ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD HIGH FOR
DFW. THE RECORD FOR DFW IS 89...WHILE THE RECORD AT WACO OF 94
LOOKS OUT OF REACH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ALSO SOME MORNING
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL CREEP
UP A LITTLE EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS/MOISTURE.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN LIFT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SKIRT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S OVER THE NW ZONES...BUT LOW-MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SO QUICKLY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE ITS SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER
TEXAS...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES THAT RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE GFS SUGGESTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN...THE CANADIAN HIGHLIGHTS WEDNESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF IS FOCUSING IN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO SOME SERIOUS TIMING
DISCREPANCIES...WILL BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHEN THE MODELS CAN HONE IN ON A MORE CONSISTENT TIME
FRAME...THESE POPS CAN BE RAISED/LOWERED AS NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
40S FOR LOWS AND 60S FOR HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 09/GP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              59  90  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             59  87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  91  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  90  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  89  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            59  89  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 241717 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 09/GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 241129 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

ALL AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY...AS THE REGION
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAK LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST.
A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ/NM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRIPE OF MOISTURE LOCATED AT 800MB
EARLY TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN VFR CIGS 5-6KFT WITH SCATTERED
CIRRUS ARRIVING IN NORTH FLOW. AS THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME SKC HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 240827
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NAM/RAP ADVERTISE A BKN035-050 DECK TOMORROW
MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THAT LAYER TO THE TAFS, INCLUDING WACO.
IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 84


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 240419
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NAM/RAP ADVERTISE A BKN035-050 DECK TOMORROW
MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THAT LAYER TO THE TAFS, INCLUDING WACO.
IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 240009
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. NAM/RAP DEVELOP A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND
4K FT OVERNIGHT...SO THERE MAY BE A SCT VFR CLOUD DECK FORM AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN MIXING GETS GOING. IT SHOULD COMPLETELY MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 232037
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE INTO AR/LA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A THIN
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL VFR CEILING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. 09/GP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231731 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE INTO AR/LA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A THIN
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL VFR CEILING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. 09/GP

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 231706
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /











000
FXUS64 KFWD 231706
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /











000
FXUS64 KFWD 231112
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230835
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AROUND THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METROPLEX. -RA MAY BRIEFLY BE OBSERVED AT KAFW AND KFTW BEFORE 06Z
BUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY BKN TO OVC SKIES DUE TO A MIX OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







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