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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290437
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY MVFR STRATUS
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

STALLEY

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

77/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 290437
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY MVFR STRATUS
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

STALLEY

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

77/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING ANY MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

77/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING ANY MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

77/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 282326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AT WACO AROUND 13Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING ANY MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

77/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 282003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE PLACED
A TEMPO BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 13-15Z PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.   58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 282003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SLOW TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE HUDSON
BAY AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF THE
UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL OPEN UP NORTH TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY ON FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...BUT THEN SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT. AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WOULD
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION POTENTIAL TO REMAIN CLOSE TO FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THIS WEEKEND AND WOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 101 DEGREES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT SUPPRESSED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE PLACED
A TEMPO BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 13-15Z PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.   58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 101  80  99  77 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              76 100  76 100  76 /   5   0   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             75 100  75  97  72 /   0   5   5  20  20
DENTON, TX            76  99  75  98  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75 100  76  98  74 /   0   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            79 101  81  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75 100  77  99  74 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  77  99  76 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  75  98  77 /   5   0   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  74  97  74 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

/75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281655 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE PLACED
A TEMPO BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 13-15Z PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...

...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR GRAYSON...FANNIN...LAMAR AND DELTA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE NOT BEEN MIXING OUT LIKE
THE REST OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS WE/VE MODIFIED
THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE RESULT IS THAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASED
INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THUS...WE ARE ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE FOUR COUNTIES.

NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.  79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        101  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

58/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281655 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WACO AREA...WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THUS HAVE PLACED
A TEMPO BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 13-15Z PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...

...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR GRAYSON...FANNIN...LAMAR AND DELTA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE NOT BEEN MIXING OUT LIKE
THE REST OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS WE/VE MODIFIED
THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE RESULT IS THAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASED
INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THUS...WE ARE ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE FOUR COUNTIES.

NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.  79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        101  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

58/75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281528
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1028 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR GRAYSON...FANNIN...LAMAR AND DELTA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE NOT BEEN MIXING OUT LIKE
THE REST OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS WE/VE MODIFIED
THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE RESULT IS THAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASED
INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THUS...WE ARE ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE FOUR COUNTIES.

NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.  79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        101  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

/75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281528
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1028 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR GRAYSON...FANNIN...LAMAR AND DELTA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE NOT BEEN MIXING OUT LIKE
THE REST OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS WE/VE MODIFIED
THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE RESULT IS THAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASED
INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THUS...WE ARE ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE FOUR COUNTIES.

NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.  79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        101  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ093>095-106.


&&

$$

/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281124 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281124 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281124 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 281124 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. AT WACO THIS MORNING...SOME
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITH CIGS GENERALLY 800 TO 1500FT.
WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 101.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR
105. SINCE ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO 70S...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROBABLY
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79 101  80 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX             100  76 100  77 100 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX            100  75 100  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            99  76 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          99  75 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX           101  81 102  83 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           99  75 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX        100  76 100  77  99 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  99  75  98 /   5   5   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 280433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH S/SE WINDS AVERAGING 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 272044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 272044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271726
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271726
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 271726
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT WACO...
WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.
AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271143 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. SOME CUMULIFORM CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MAY OCCUR
AROUND KACT THIS MORNING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS
TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 8-11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A SHOWER MAY OCCUR NEAR KACT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AND WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 271143 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CONDITIONS VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. SOME CUMULIFORM CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MAY OCCUR
AROUND KACT THIS MORNING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS
TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 8-11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A SHOWER MAY OCCUR NEAR KACT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AND WILL MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270749
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 270749
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SUNDAY/S HIGHS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE MOST ABUNDANT. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WILL BRIEFLY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE
DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SHOULD HINDER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER HOT AND RAIN FREE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 101. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EVEN FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. LOW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              99  77  99  77  99 /  10  10   5   5   0
PARIS, TX            100  76  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX           100  77  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  77  98  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX           100  81 100  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX          100  77  98  76 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77  98  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  74  98  74  98 /  10  10   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270442
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.   75

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270236 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 270236 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 262324
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 262055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 262055
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONTINUED
HEAT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TX. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR /IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER/ TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN ARKANSAS. SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE APPEARS DRIEST OUT WEST /PER
850-925 MB MIXING RATIO VALUES/ COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
IN FACT...A FEW MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WHICH MAY HELP TO SLOW THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. HAVE TAKEN A SIMILAR APPROACH WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 90S AND 100-101 VALUES WEST OF I-35 WITH
MAINLY UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN AREAS
WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH REGARDS TO THE
HEAT INDEX...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST READINGS IN THE 101-103 RANGE...BUT INDIVIDUALS THAT
WORK OUTSIDE SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR BONHAM AND PARIS...WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED. HEAT INDEX VALUES HERE MAY APPROACH 104-105 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY...A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HI TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100-102...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 101-103 ACROSS MOST
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SITES
MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. A HIGHER AMOUNT/DEPTH OF MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE RATE/DEGREE OF HEATING...WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE LOWER/MID LEVELS SATURATE AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IN GENERAL WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...THE GENERAL LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN HOT...ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY PER BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS LOST.
THESE FRONTS ARE OFTEN BETTER DEFINED BY DISCONTINUITIES IN MORE
CONSERVED QUANTITIES /MIXING RATIO OR THETA-E/. INCREASED POPS A
TAD /20-30 PERCENT/ ON FRIDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL...BUT CLEAR THINGS OUT THEREAFTER AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST...THIS
WOULD PUT NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHICH COULD MEAN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PRECIP.

BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  99  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  98  76  98  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  99  77  99  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  78  99  77 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            81 101  83 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  77  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  99  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261734
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  76  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  74  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  73  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  77  99  76  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  74  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261734
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  76  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  74  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  73  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  77  99  76  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  74  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261734
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  76  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  74  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  73  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  77  99  76  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  74  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261734
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH CENTRAL TX
TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AT WACO IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD MON. NO SUSTAINED
CIGS OF ANY SORT ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MON...AVERAGING 6-10 KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  79  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  98  76  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  76  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  74  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  73  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  81 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  77  99  76  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  74  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A
FEW DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY BUT WILL START A SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DEGREE VARIANCE ON EITHER
SIDE. IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A LOOP OF THE GOES PWAT SOUNDER TONIGHT SHOWS AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS. IF THIS CONTINUES ON TRACK TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WHEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERNS...IT USUALLY RESULTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE NOT HEATING UP TO
ITS FULL POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HALF...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 96-99 DEGREE RANGE WITH
97-102 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR 99 DEGREES AT KDFW BUT IF THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KDFW WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FINALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10
POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN AND SOME CUMULIFORM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SEEN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT WILL STILL BE
HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AND A FEW
SITES REACHING 100-101 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY COOL
ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CARRY SILENT 10 POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT THEN COOL SOME FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES WEST AND
PARKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONT TO BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE WEAKENED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALSO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING BACK OVER THE REGION SOME. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A
LITTLE BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  81  99  80  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  77  98  77  98 /   0   0  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             99  78  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          99  78  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX           101  83 101  83 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         99  78  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  97  75  97 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82





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