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000
FXUS64 KFWD 071725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWEST
THROUGH KOKC /OKLAHOMA CITY/...CHILDRESS /KCDS/ AND KLBB /LUBBOCK/
AT 1700Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z AND THROUGH
WACO 02-03Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS BY 06Z MONDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS BY 15Z
MONDAY.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 071202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE DIPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AROUND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY IN THE DFW
AREA BY 08/00Z AND KACT BY 08/03Z. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND COLD AIR SURGE ARRIVES...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS LIGHT FOG IN THE WACO AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KT HAVE PREVENTED VISIBILITIES
FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 071202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE DIPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AROUND A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY IN THE DFW
AREA BY 08/00Z AND KACT BY 08/03Z. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND COLD AIR SURGE ARRIVES...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS LIGHT FOG IN THE WACO AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KT HAVE PREVENTED VISIBILITIES
FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

30/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 071027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF WACO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND WIND SHIFT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 070536 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF WACO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND WIND SHIFT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           32  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 070536 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF WACO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND WIND SHIFT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           32  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 070536 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF WACO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND WIND SHIFT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           32  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 062327 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LGT/VAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              30  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 062327 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LGT/VAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              30  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 062327 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LGT/VAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              30  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 062145
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MONDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LITTLE LOWER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY BE A MITIGATING
FACTOR POSSIBLY KEEPING US FROM NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SUNDAY AND DECIDE WHETHER
WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL MONDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S WEST TUESDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  63  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              30  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  34  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  62  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          31  61  35  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  61  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  63  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            33  65  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     30  64  33  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061847 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MINOR UPDATE
HAS BEEN SENT TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  64  36  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              31  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  62  33  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  61  34  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  62  34  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  64  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            32  65  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  65  32  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061847 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MINOR UPDATE
HAS BEEN SENT TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO REQUIRED SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  64  36  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              31  64  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  60  33  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  62  33  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  61  34  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            37  62  38  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  62  34  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  64  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            32  65  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     31  65  32  57  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 061750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 061750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE AT 1745Z. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO
WILL THE MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MIDDAY TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AND THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
12 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z MONDAY WHICH IS JUST AT THE END
OF EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...SO THIS WIND SHIFT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061149
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WERE BOTH LOCATED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE DFW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE KACT AREA. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MVFR CIGS HAD
DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. THE MOST RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...CREATING A BATCH OF MVFR
STRATUS IN THE DFW AREA BY 15Z. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD
DECK. AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AROUND
21Z...BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND FUTURE TRENDS
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT DFW AND DAL...BUT SHOULD
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR SO SIMILAR TO THE FT
WORTH AREA AIRPORTS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT BY MID
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061149
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WERE BOTH LOCATED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE DFW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE KACT AREA. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MVFR CIGS HAD
DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. THE MOST RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...CREATING A BATCH OF MVFR
STRATUS IN THE DFW AREA BY 15Z. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD
DECK. AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AROUND
21Z...BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND FUTURE TRENDS
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT DFW AND DAL...BUT SHOULD
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR SO SIMILAR TO THE FT
WORTH AREA AIRPORTS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT BY MID
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 061149
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WERE BOTH LOCATED
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE DFW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE KACT AREA. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MVFR CIGS HAD
DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. THE MOST RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...CREATING A BATCH OF MVFR
STRATUS IN THE DFW AREA BY 15Z. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD
DECK. AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AROUND
21Z...BUT MAY BE ADJUSTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND FUTURE TRENDS
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT DFW AND DAL...BUT SHOULD
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN AN HOUR OR SO SIMILAR TO THE FT
WORTH AREA AIRPORTS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT BY MID
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 061012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 061012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY
OVERHEAD. NOW WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THE INFLOW UPSTREAM HAS
INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM OR
MOISTURE-RICH...IT HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SOME THUNDER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SPRINKLES WITHIN NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW ITS MID-LEVEL PARENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND NORTH WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEP AND VIGOROUS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO PREVENT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL HELP READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S REGIONWIDE. THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX...
MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS A CYCLONE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL BRING WITH IT BITTER ARCTIC AIR. WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THE POLAR JET BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL REACH THE SURFACE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE A WIND ADVISORY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA...BUT THE COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL WILDFIRE THREAT ON
MONDAY...AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST.

A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT DRY FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.

THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ALSO LOOKING DRY...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN FOR THE
FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  36  64  36  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  31  64  34  58 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  34  60  33  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  31  62  33  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  32  61  34  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  37  62  38  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  34  62  34  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  35  64  36  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  32  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  31  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 060506 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 060506 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 060506 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

WE CONTINUE TO TRACK AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
PRODUCING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT
ON RADAR. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME AT 6-7 KFT...SO MOST OBS UNDERNEATH THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY INDICATED AN HOUR OR TWO OF SPRINKLES OR -RA AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO I-35 AT 06Z. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FINE LINE ON AREA NETWORK RADARS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS BY AT LEAST 2-3 HRS...
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACKING ESE NEAR WICHITA
FALLS. I HAVE SPED THE COLD FRONT UP WITH THIS IN MIND AND NOW
HAVE WNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OCCURRING ACROSS DFW METRO AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 08Z- 10Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS THE AREA...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD
DEEPEN AND SATURATE WITH WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY. IN
ADDITION... THERE ARE SIGNS SOME SATURATION ON THE FRONTAL
INVERSION OCCURS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
PAST MIDDAY. NNW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AT WACO...EXPECT ABOUT A 3-4 HR DELAY ON FROPA COMPARED TO DFW
AIRPORTS WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEY TOO
WILL SEE BRISK NORTH W/NW WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 052135
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT
DOES...A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERMAIN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AIRMAS
ARCROSS THE REGION IS QUITE DRY. DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...BUT SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND I-45. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOUISANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THOSE AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH THAT BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AIDED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MONDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDE WIND SHIFTS...SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED BETWEEN DFW AND WACO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE METROPLEX WINDS TO TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN THE SPAN OF A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. AT WACO...WINDS WILL SIMPLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THIS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO TURBULENCE
AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF BKN025 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...IS IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS MAY BECOME AS LOW AS
FL010 AT TIMES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUCH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR ALL SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  54  37  62  37 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              36  54  32  63  35 /  30   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  52  33  59  34 /  40  30   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  53  33  62  34 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  52  33  60  35 /  50  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  54  37  62  38 /  40  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  52  33  61  35 /  50  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         38  52  35  63  36 /  40  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  57  32  65  36 /  30   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     34  55  32  63  33 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDE WIND SHIFTS...SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES...AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND BE POSITIONED BETWEEN DFW AND WACO BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE METROPLEX WINDS TO TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN THE SPAN OF A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. AT WACO...WINDS WILL SIMPLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THIS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO TURBULENCE
AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY.
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW IS EAST OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING...WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF BKN025 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER...IS IS POSSIBLE THAT CIGS MAY BECOME AS LOW AS
FL010 AT TIMES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUCH A
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR ALL SITES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  40  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  40   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  40  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051655 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  40  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  40   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  40  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051655 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS AND ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25



&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  40  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  40   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  40  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 051205
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 051205
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051205
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MS VALLEY AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INDICATED -RA IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH GIVES DFW AN
EAST WIND AROUND 10KT STARTING 09-12Z SATURDAY...THEN NORTH WINDS
THEREAFTER.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051016
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 051016
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 051016
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 050510 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              27  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 050510 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              27  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 042342 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
A SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING. GENERALLY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AT THE START OF TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-05Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY TO AROUND 12-14 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-7
KFT FRIDAY EVENING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              29  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 042342 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
A SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING. GENERALLY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AT THE START OF TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 03-05Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY TO AROUND 12-14 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-7
KFT FRIDAY EVENING.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              29  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 042057
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
00Z FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY 16Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              29  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 041754 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
00Z FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY 16Z.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT THE ONLY RESULT WILL BE
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
WEAK PRESSURE RISES AND THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP
BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY ENSURES A
CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IS VERY STRONG BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY
RESULT WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLER WARMER. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
MARGINALLY ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT 10 TO 20. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND KEEP SATURDAY`S TEMPS NEAR
OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BOOST AS
SUBSIDENT DOWNSLOPE WARMING TAKES PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 60 ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TEXAS WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER TRANQUIL
OVER OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE
CORE OF A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT A COUPLE OF DAYS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR. MEANWHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET TOO
COLD AS WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY UP AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN WHICH SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO THE
60S AND 70S AREAWIDE BY LATE WEEK.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO STRESS
DORMANT FINE FUELS WHICH WILL INEVITABLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THANKFULLY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY MONDAY
HAS WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE OUR NEXT RAIN
MAKING SYSTEM ARRIVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AROUND FEB 15TH.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  33  57  37  58 /   0   0   0  10   5
WACO, TX              55  29  57  35  59 /   0   0   0  10   5
PARIS, TX             51  29  55  34  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            53  29  57  34  56 /   0   0   0  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          53  28  56  34  56 /   0   0   0  20   5
DALLAS, TX            54  35  58  38  57 /   0   0   0  10   5
TERRELL, TX           53  29  57  36  57 /   0   0   0  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         55  32  57  37  58 /   0   0   0  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            56  29  58  36  60 /   0   0   0  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  29  59  31  59 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/58





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