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000
FXUS64 KFWD 171513
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  57  77  61  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  54  76  55  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  50  75  55  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            67  53  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  52  75  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            69  57  77  61  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  53  75  58  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  54  77  59  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  55  77  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  58  74  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 171140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL
PREVAIL BKN015 MVFR CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12Z. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SHOWERY IN NATURE BELOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THERE
ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING THAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS AIRPORTS.
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AND MAY ACTUALLY DROP INTO IFR
CATEGORY AFTER DARK IN SOME AREAS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT LATE MORNING. LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  57  77  61  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  54  76  55  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  50  75  55  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            67  53  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  52  75  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            69  57  77  61  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  53  75  58  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  54  77  59  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  55  77  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  58  74  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 170900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  57  77  61  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  54  76  55  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  50  75  55  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            67  53  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  52  75  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            69  57  77  61  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  53  75  58  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  54  77  59  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  55  77  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  58  74  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 170435
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
50KT LLVL JET BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING IFR AT WACO NEAR SUNRISE. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT METROPLEX NEAR SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD
BOUNCE QUICKLY BACK TO MVFR. CIGS WILL RISE ABOVE 020 AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BY THAT TIME PRECLUDES
CEILINGS DISSIPATING AND THEY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH MVFR ALL
DAY. WEAK SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN MODEST
AREA OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION. CIGS DROP
BACK BELOW O20 THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET AND DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH WITHIN THE 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED...WHICH WILL IN
TURN PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BUSH 20 POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY EASE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY MONDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND DOMINATE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
HINT AT A LARGER-SCALE AND STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  69  57  76  59 /   5  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              52  71  54  77  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             44  68  51  74  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  66  52  73  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          48  68  53  74  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  70  57  76  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  69  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  71  55  75  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            52  73  55  76  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  67  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 170020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BACK TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE CONTINUED
RETURN OF MOISTURE...LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU TOMORROW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS COULD VARY BY AN HR OR
TWO...BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL OUTPUT.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
09Z. IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW...SO LEFT MVFR IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SO THE MVFR STRATUS WILL LIFT ABOVE 020 BUT REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.

FOR WACO...UNLIKE FOR THE DFW METRO...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR KACT AROUND 08Z AND WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESS
LIKELY FOR WACO SO HAVE LEFT VCSH OUT OF THE KACT TAF FOR NOW.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET AND DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH WITHIN THE 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED...WHICH WILL IN
TURN PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BUSH 20 POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY EASE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY MONDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND DOMINATE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
HINT AT A LARGER-SCALE AND STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  69  57  76  59 /   5  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              52  71  54  77  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             44  68  51  74  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  66  52  73  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          48  68  53  74  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  70  57  76  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  69  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  71  55  75  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            52  73  55  76  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  67  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161945
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET AND DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH WITHIN THE 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED...WHICH WILL IN
TURN PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BUSH 20 POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY EASE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY MONDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND DOMINATE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
HINT AT A LARGER-SCALE AND STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  69  57  76  59 /   5  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              52  71  54  77  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             44  68  51  74  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  66  52  73  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          48  68  53  74  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  70  57  76  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  69  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  71  55  75  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            52  73  55  76  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  67  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161719
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20G30KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. GULF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MVFR STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED WITH LIGHTER AND
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THAN USUAL...IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP METROPLEX TAFS ABOVE
1000FT. FOR WACO PROBABILITY A LITTLE HIGHER FOR IFR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS
TO BE SLOWER TO LIFT THAN USUAL TOMORROW...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
2000FT UNTIL 17Z/NOON...BUT CIGS LESS THAN 3000FT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
WEAK DISTURBANCE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BELOW A STRONG
CAP AT 750MB...BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN DFW 24-30HR TAF PERIOD.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWARD
SURGE OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
LATE TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAK FRONT...BUT MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RAINFALL
TOTALS ON THE MEAGER SIDE. NO SIGNIFICANT GRID UPDATES ARE PLANNED
FOR NOW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING WE WILL WARM UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING INTO TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN TODAY...RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO LIFT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CAP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LEFT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONGER LIFT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF NEW CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS THROUGH 700MB ARE QUITE PUNY
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL LACK OF EITHER A STRONG SURFACE
FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL POPS ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS THOUGH...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM INTO NEXT WEEK...SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  49  69  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  51  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  49  65  53  74 /   0   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  48  66  53  73 /   0   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  47  68  54  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  70  56  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  50  70  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  51  67  55  75 /   0   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161558
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWARD
SURGE OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
LATE TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAK FRONT...BUT MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP RAINFALL
TOTALS ON THE MEAGER SIDE. NO SIGNIFICANT GRID UPDATES ARE PLANNED
FOR NOW.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST /12Z
WEDNESDAY/ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS 15-16Z WITH SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET AND BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS...WITH MVFR
STRATUS...WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 09Z
THURSDAY.MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING WE WILL WARM UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING INTO TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN TODAY...RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO LIFT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CAP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LEFT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONGER LIFT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF NEW CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS THROUGH 700MB ARE QUITE PUNY
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL LACK OF EITHER A STRONG SURFACE
FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL POPS ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS THOUGH...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM INTO NEXT WEEK...SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  49  69  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  51  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  49  65  53  74 /   0   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  48  66  53  73 /   0   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  47  68  54  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  70  56  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  50  70  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  51  67  55  75 /   0   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 161131
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST /12Z
WEDNESDAY/ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS 15-16Z WITH SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET AND BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS...WITH MVFR
STRATUS...WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 09Z
THURSDAY.MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.



58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING WE WILL WARM UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING INTO TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN TODAY...RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO LIFT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CAP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LEFT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONGER LIFT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF NEW CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS THROUGH 700MB ARE QUITE PUNY
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL LACK OF EITHER A STRONG SURFACE
FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL POPS ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS THOUGH...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM INTO NEXT WEEK...SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  49  69  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  51  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  49  65  53  74 /   0   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  48  66  53  73 /   0   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  47  68  54  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  70  56  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  50  70  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  51  67  55  75 /   0   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91








000
FXUS64 KFWD 160805
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING WE WILL WARM UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING INTO TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN TODAY...RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING.

BY TOMORROW A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO LIFT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CAP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LEFT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY BUT AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONGER LIFT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF NEW CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS THROUGH 700MB ARE QUITE PUNY
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL LACK OF EITHER A STRONG SURFACE
FORCING MECHANISM OR STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ACTUAL POPS ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELDS THOUGH...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS
UPSTREAM INTO NEXT WEEK...SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  49  69  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  51  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            69  49  65  53  74 /   0   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  48  66  53  73 /   0   5  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            70  51  67  58  76 /   0   5  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  47  68  54  75 /   0   5  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  50  70  56  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  50  70  57  77 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  51  67  55  75 /   0   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160509 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SOME WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH HAS PUSHED INTO EAST TEXAS...
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BARREL INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY
RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
REACH WACO AROUND MIDNIGHT...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE METROPLEX
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE WACO TAF AND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST...WHILE A MORE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MARCH TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ...BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED EAST
OF THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING....THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST
COAST APPROACHES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING. THE SHORT DURATION OF RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY SPARSE AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 10-20 POPS ELSEWHERE. MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE /ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG/...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS OF LESS THAN 1
INCH WILL LIMIT NOT ONLY COVERAGE BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DAMPENING AS IT PASSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY THAN THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE WITH REGARD
TO THE TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS FOCUSES
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
ARE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POPS FOR NOW FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  69  50  69  54 /   5   5  10  20  20
WACO, TX              35  69  50  71  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             37  66  43  66  50 /   5   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            38  67  48  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          36  65  46  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            43  67  50  68  54 /   5   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           38  67  46  69  51 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         39  68  48  71  54 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            37  69  50  72  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  70  48  69  51 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 160028 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
728 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SOME WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH HAS PUSHED INTO EAST TEXAS...
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BARREL INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY
RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
REACH WACO AROUND MIDNIGHT...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE METROPLEX
BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE WACO TAF AND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST...WHILE A MORE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MARCH TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ...BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED EAST
OF THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING....THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST
COAST APPROACHES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING. THE SHORT DURATION OF RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY SPARSE AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 10-20 POPS ELSEWHERE. MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE /ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG/...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS OF LESS THAN 1
INCH WILL LIMIT NOT ONLY COVERAGE BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DAMPENING AS IT PASSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY THAN THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE WITH REGARD
TO THE TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS FOCUSES
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
ARE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POPS FOR NOW FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  69  50  69  54 /   5   5  10  20  20
WACO, TX              39  69  50  71  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             37  66  43  66  50 /   5   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            39  67  48  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          36  65  46  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            42  67  50  68  54 /   5   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           38  67  46  69  51 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         40  68  48  71  54 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            38  69  50  72  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  70  48  69  51 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05








000
FXUS64 KFWD 152005
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST...WHILE A MORE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MARCH TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ...BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED EAST
OF THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING....THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST
COAST APPROACHES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING. THE SHORT DURATION OF RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY SPARSE AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 10-20 POPS ELSEWHERE. MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE /ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG/...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS OF LESS THAN 1
INCH WILL LIMIT NOT ONLY COVERAGE BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DAMPENING AS IT PASSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY THAN THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE WITH REGARD
TO THE TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS FOCUSES
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
ARE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POPS FOR NOW FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  69  50  69  54 /   5   5  10  20  20
WACO, TX              39  69  50  71  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             37  66  43  66  50 /   5   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            39  67  48  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          36  65  46  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            42  67  50  68  54 /   5   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           38  67  46  69  51 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         40  68  48  71  54 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            38  69  50  72  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  70  48  69  51 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 151714
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO 15-25KT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 50 BY MIDDAY.
BOTH THE FREEZE WARNING AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
ACCORDINGLY AS OF 9 AM. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS GOOD. A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
A CLEAR SKY AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS OPTIMAL VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS AS
OF 3 AM AND MANY MORE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER
NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE INVASION OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  69  50  72 /   5   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              64  38  69  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  37  63  44  68 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            64  38  67  48  71 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  35  65  46  70 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            64  42  67  50  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           61  37  66  48  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         61  39  67  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  69  50  75 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  37  70  47  69 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 151415
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 50 BY MIDDAY.
BOTH THE FREEZE WARNING AND THE FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
ACCORDINGLY AS OF 9 AM. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS GOOD. A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
A CLEAR SKY AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS OPTIMAL VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS AS
OF 3 AM AND MANY MORE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER
NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE INVASION OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  69  50  72 /   5   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              64  38  69  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  37  63  44  68 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            64  38  67  48  71 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  35  65  46  70 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            64  42  67  50  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           61  37  66  48  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         61  39  67  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  69  50  75 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  37  70  47  69 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 151129 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND
10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/
A CLEAR SKY AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS OPTIMAL VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS AS
OF 3 AM AND MANY MORE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER
NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE INVASION OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  69  50  72 /   5   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              64  38  69  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  37  63  44  68 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            64  38  67  48  71 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  35  65  46  70 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            64  42  67  50  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           61  37  66  48  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         61  39  67  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  69  50  75 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  37  70  47  69 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ119>123-134-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KFWD 150806
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR SKY AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT HAVE RESULTED IN
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS OPTIMAL VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS AS
OF 3 AM AND MANY MORE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 9 AM.

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND WARMER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A LIGHT WIND EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED POPS ON THURSDAY...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO
BE WEAK SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER
NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST THEY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE INVASION OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  69  50  72 /   5   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              64  38  69  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  37  63  44  68 /   5   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            64  38  67  48  71 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  35  65  46  70 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            64  42  67  50  71 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           61  37  66  48  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         61  39  67  50  72 /   5   5   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  69  50  75 /   5   5   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  37  70  47  69 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ119>123-134-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

91/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 150500 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MORNING FROST...OTHERWISE NONE.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. FROST IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE...AND
PLANES PARKED OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE DE-ICED. VWP
SHOWING 35-KT WINDS AT 2KFT AGL...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LITTLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT TAF SITES. EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
WITH RUNWAYS...WHICH WILL REMAIN FREE OF ICE (EVEN WHERE THERE IS
OPERATIONAL WATER RUNOFF).

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY PASS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND MOST
OF TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH TO
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH OVER NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT LED TO HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DALLAS FORT-WORTH
AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. THINNING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SUN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE DROPPING LATER THIS EVENING. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL
SET UP TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 9 PM...BUT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A FROST ADVISORY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST
FORMING EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFFICIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A NARROWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD RESIDE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EASTER SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY SYSTEM....BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 30
PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY / DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  63  41  67  52 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              33  64  39  69  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             31  60  36  64  46 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            30  62  38  66  50 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          30  61  36  65  48 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            36  62  42  67  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           34  61  37  66  49 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         34  62  38  66  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            33  64  37  70  53 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  64  37  69  50 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ119>123-134-135-
146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 150008 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...GUSTY WINDS EARLY...OTHERWISE NONE.

VFR CEILINGS ARE DEPARTING...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL SETTLE INTO THE LONE STAR STATE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST. AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND MOST
OF TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH TO
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH OVER NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT LED TO HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DALLAS FORT-WORTH
AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. THINNING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SUN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE DROPPING LATER THIS EVENING. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL
SET UP TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 9 PM...BUT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A FROST ADVISORY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST
FORMING EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFFICIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A NARROWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD RESIDE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EASTER SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY SYSTEM....BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 30
PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY / DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  63  41  67  52 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              33  64  39  69  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             31  60  36  64  46 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            30  62  38  66  50 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          30  61  36  65  48 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            36  62  42  67  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           34  61  37  66  49 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         34  62  38  66  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            33  64  37  70  53 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  64  37  69  50 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ119>123-134-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 142018
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND MOST
OF TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH TO
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH OVER NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT LED TO HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DALLAS FORT-WORTH
AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. THINNING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SUN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE DROPPING LATER THIS EVENING. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL
SET UP TONIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 9 PM...BUT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A FROST ADVISORY...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST
FORMING EVEN IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFFICIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A NARROWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD RESIDE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EASTER SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY SYSTEM....BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 30
PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / MUCH
WARMER THAN TODAY / DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  63  41  67  52 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              33  64  39  69  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             31  60  36  64  46 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            30  62  38  66  50 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          30  61  36  65  48 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            36  62  42  67  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           34  61  37  66  49 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         34  62  38  66  51 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            33  64  37  70  53 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  64  37  69  50 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ119>123-134-
135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 141649 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z IN THE WACO AREA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO WAXAHACHIE TO PARIS LINE. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE WACO TAF THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE MVFR
CEILINGS OF 2500-3000 FEET WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...3500-4000 FEET
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY 23Z AND DOWN
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5
KNOTS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY 19Z TUESDAY AND
SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.




58

&&

.UPDATE...
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO
ATHENS. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WITH
ELEVATED CORES OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH
THE 850MB FRONT AND THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WARRANTED BY TRENDS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.

TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.

AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  34  63  42  66 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  33  63  36  67 /  30   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             51  30  59  36  64 /  20   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            53  29  62  38  66 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  30  62  38  65 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            56  35  63  42  66 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  33  62  37  65 /  20   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  33  61  38  66 /  30   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  33  64  36  68 /  30   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  32  63  37  69 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/30








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