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000
FXUS64 KFWD 041136
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW.

FOR THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES...EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. A FEW WIND GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING. WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLES.
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING...NO
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO SOUTH
FLOW APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...A VERY MOIST GROUND AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAIN-FREE AND
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT KNOW AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  56  80  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO                81  53  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS               78  51  75  53  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON              79  52  79  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            79  51  78  53  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS              81  56  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             79  53  78  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA           80  55  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              80  54  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       80  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 041136
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW.

FOR THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES...EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. A FEW WIND GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING. WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLES.
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING...NO
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO SOUTH
FLOW APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...A VERY MOIST GROUND AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAIN-FREE AND
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT KNOW AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  56  80  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO                81  53  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS               78  51  75  53  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON              79  52  79  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            79  51  78  53  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS              81  56  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             79  53  78  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA           80  55  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              80  54  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       80  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 040818
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...A VERY MOIST GROUND AND CLEAR
SKIES...IT WILL BE SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAIN-FREE AND
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT KNOW AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  56  80  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO                81  53  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS               78  51  75  53  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON              79  52  79  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            79  51  78  53  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS              81  56  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             79  53  78  55  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA           80  55  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              80  54  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       80  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 040447 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MOVED WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS EARLIER HAS
DISSIPATED AND NO NEW PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LGT/VAR WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKEWISE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST ZONES. AS THE RAIN FALLS
FROM THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER 8000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. HAVE
SENT AN UPDATE ADJUSTING THE POPS AND THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 040224 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKEWISE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST ZONES. AS THE RAIN FALLS
FROM THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER 8000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. HAVE
SENT AN UPDATE ADJUSTING THE POPS AND THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOW AND THE ONLY CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME BKN/OVC080 AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY
01-02Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR -RA THROUGH ABOUT 4Z.
OTHERWISE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH FLOW AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  30   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOW AND THE ONLY CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME BKN/OVC080 AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY
01-02Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR -RA THROUGH ABOUT 4Z.
OTHERWISE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH FLOW AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  30   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT... AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS
VERY LOW SO OPTED FOR VCSH FROM 03-06Z AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IF OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE RAIN/CONVECTION BEFORE IT REACHES WACO AIRPORT BUT WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FROM 06-09Z AS THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
TRACK SUGGEST THE RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING LIGHT NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /   5  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031726 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT... AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS
VERY LOW SO OPTED FOR VCSH FROM 03-06Z AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IF OBSERVED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE RAIN/CONVECTION BEFORE IT REACHES WACO AIRPORT BUT WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH FROM 06-09Z AS THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
TRACK SUGGEST THE RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING LIGHT NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE LATER TODAY. WE WENT AHEAD AND MADE A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS ON THIS LATER TODAY AFTER UPSTREAM TRENDS HAVE BEEN
MONITORED AND ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    75  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                75  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               72  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              75  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            74  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             73  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           74  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              74  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       75  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031511
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE LATER TODAY. WE WENT AHEAD AND MADE A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE MORE
DETAILS ON THIS LATER TODAY AFTER UPSTREAM TRENDS HAVE BEEN
MONITORED AND ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...HIGH-BASED VCSH AND SUBSEQUENT TURBULENCE. LOW THUNDER
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOWARDS THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE PARCHED...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. HI-
RES GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION DOWN TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT A BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME WHICH MAY RESULT
IN IMPACTS TO WESTERN CORNERPOSTS. IF THIS INSTABILITY IS A BIT
HIGHER OR LIFT IS CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE METROPLEX. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP NEAR
ANY OF THE TERMINALS...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY ALSO
RESULT IN TURBULENCE BELOW FL080. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESUME
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.

FOR THE DFW EXTENDED...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TAF WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE WACO TAF AT
THIS TIME AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
WACO. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF INCLUSION OF VCSH/VCTS IS WARRANTED.

BAIN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                74  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               71  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              74  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            73  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             73  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           73  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              74  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       75  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...HIGH-BASED VCSH AND SUBSEQUENT TURBULENCE. LOW THUNDER
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. TOWARDS THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE PARCHED...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. HI-
RES GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF THIS CONVECTION DOWN TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT A BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME WHICH MAY RESULT
IN IMPACTS TO WESTERN CORNERPOSTS. IF THIS INSTABILITY IS A BIT
HIGHER OR LIFT IS CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE METROPLEX. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP NEAR
ANY OF THE TERMINALS...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY ALSO
RESULT IN TURBULENCE BELOW FL080. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESUME
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10KT.

FOR THE DFW EXTENDED...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TAF WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE WACO TAF AT
THIS TIME AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
WACO. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE
IF INCLUSION OF VCSH/VCTS IS WARRANTED.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                73  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               70  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              73  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            72  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              73  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             72  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           72  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              73  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       74  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 030751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN
ITS WAKE.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                73  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               70  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              73  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            72  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              73  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             72  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           72  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              73  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       74  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 030444 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN
ITS WAKE.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    48  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              49  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 030027 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CIGS STILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BUT THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    50  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              51  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 030027 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CIGS STILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BUT THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    50  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              51  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 022007
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

THE SKIES ARE A MESSY COMBINATION OF VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE DFW AREA FROM THE NORTH AND MVFR CIGS NOW
MOVING EAST OF KACT. WILL PREVAIL VFR CIGS BUT TEMPO FOR
BKN020-BKN025 THROUGH 21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...WILL
TEMPO FOR -RA AND -SHRA THROUGH 21Z AS SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUES
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 8-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR STORMS APPROACHING THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY...FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR RAIN AND/OR THUNDER.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    50  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              51  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 022007
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

THE SKIES ARE A MESSY COMBINATION OF VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE DFW AREA FROM THE NORTH AND MVFR CIGS NOW
MOVING EAST OF KACT. WILL PREVAIL VFR CIGS BUT TEMPO FOR
BKN020-BKN025 THROUGH 21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...WILL
TEMPO FOR -RA AND -SHRA THROUGH 21Z AS SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUES
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 8-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR STORMS APPROACHING THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY...FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR RAIN AND/OR THUNDER.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    50  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              51  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /   5   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021733 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

THE SKIES ARE A MESSY COMBINATION OF VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE DFW AREA FROM THE NORTH AND MVFR CIGS NOW
MOVING EAST OF KACT. WILL PREVAIL VFR CIGS BUT TEMPO FOR
BKN020-BKN025 THROUGH 21Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...WILL
TEMPO FOR -RA AND -SHRA THROUGH 21Z AS SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUES
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 8-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR STORMS APPROACHING THE TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY...FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR RAIN AND/OR THUNDER.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE COOL AND STABLE AT THE SURFACE...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL NOTED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOST OF
THE DAY TO HOLD HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

A MINOR UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND TAKE
THUNDER OUT NORTH OF I-20...WHILE MAINTAINING HIGHER POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL MAY OCCUR OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  70   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  30   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  60   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  70  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  30   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021445 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE COOL AND STABLE AT THE SURFACE...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL NOTED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOST OF
THE DAY TO HOLD HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

A MINOR UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND TAKE
THUNDER OUT NORTH OF I-20...WHILE MAINTAINING HIGHER POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL MAY OCCUR OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 800MB FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONED TO AN ELEVATED QLCS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MOVING TOWARD THE
RICHER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THUNDER IS COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL
TEXAS AIRPORTS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED BETWEEN 600MB AND 700MB (FL100-140).

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  70   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  30   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  60   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  70  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  30   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 800MB FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONED TO AN ELEVATED QLCS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MOVING TOWARD THE
RICHER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THUNDER IS COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL
TEXAS AIRPORTS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED BETWEEN 600MB AND 700MB (FL100-140).

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  40   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  20   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  30   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  40  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 800MB FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONED TO AN ELEVATED QLCS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MOVING TOWARD THE
RICHER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THUNDER IS COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL
TEXAS AIRPORTS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED BETWEEN 600MB AND 700MB (FL100-140).

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  40   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  20   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  30   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  40  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020818
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS AROUND FL040-060 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
APPROACH A TAF SITE...A TEMPO GROUP MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED TO
MENTION BRIEF CIGS AROUND FL020. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT.

STALLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  40   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  20   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  30   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  40  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020441
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS AROUND FL040-060 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
APPROACH A TAF SITE...A TEMPO GROUP MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED TO
MENTION BRIEF CIGS AROUND FL020. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN
FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
TIMING AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE...ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER
IN THE DAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  30  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  10   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  20   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  20  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020441
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CIGS AROUND FL040-060 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
APPROACH A TAF SITE...A TEMPO GROUP MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED TO
MENTION BRIEF CIGS AROUND FL020. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MONDAY NIGHT.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN
FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
TIMING AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE...ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER
IN THE DAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  30  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  10   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  20   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  20  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020019 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN
FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
TIMING AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE...ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORING HOURS ON MONDAY. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER
IN THE DAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND FL040-060 CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING....WITH BKN CIGS AROUND FL040
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY
TAF SITE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT IT FROM THE
FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING THAT ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FL040...EXCEPT PERHAPS WHERE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER IS
OCCURRING. SHOULD ANY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

STALLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  30  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  10   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  20   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  20  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012324
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND FL040-060 CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING....WITH BKN CIGS AROUND FL040
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY
TAF SITE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT IT FROM THE
FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING THAT ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FL040...EXCEPT PERHAPS WHERE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER IS
OCCURRING. SHOULD ANY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  30   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  40  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  30  20   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  20   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  30   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  30  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  20   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012324
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND FL040-060 CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING....WITH BKN CIGS AROUND FL040
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY
TAF SITE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT IT FROM THE
FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING THAT ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FL040...EXCEPT PERHAPS WHERE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER IS
OCCURRING. SHOULD ANY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

STALLEY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  30   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  40  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  30  20   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  20   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  30   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  30  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  20   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

77/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012007
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT...WHICH LEAVES US WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT...AND SOME MEAGER LEVELS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS A A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE VCSH FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT
ALL TAF SITES. IF FUTURE MODELS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WE WOULD LIKELY NEED TO INDICATE TS DURING A BRIEF
PORTION OF THE TAF FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   0   0
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  30   5   0   0
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  40  10   5   0   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  20   5   0   0
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   0   0
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   0   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  30   5   0   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05





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