000
FXUS64 KFWD 231816
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR BY 19Z. SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS TEMPORARILY CLEARING
WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. ALL LOW CEILINGS/FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER BETWEEN 17 AND 18Z FRIDAY MORNING.
AM BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS PER
THE 06Z RUN OF THE TEXAS TECH WRF. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
MENTION OF THUNDER OR IMPACTS TO THIS TAF PACKAGE SINCE MOST OF
THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT MAY INTRODUCE IN
LATER UPDATES AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING HAS
STALLED AND WINDS HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
6 AND 13 KNOTS.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MORNING POPS SOUTHWARD DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION
SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HOWEVER...MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ALIVE DESPITE THE LOSS IN LIFT. MAY HAVE TO DO
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO PLACE POPS IN THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH
IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.
WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 87 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 10 20
WACO, TX 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 83 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20
DENTON, TX 86 70 84 70 83 / 20 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 85 70 85 70 84 / 30 20 20 10 20
DALLAS, TX 87 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 88 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/85
000
FXUS64 KFWD 231356 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MORNING POPS SOUTHWARD DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION
SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HOWEVER...MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG WHICH COULD
KEEP THE ACTIVITY ALIVE DESPITE THE LOSS IN LIFT. MAY HAVE TO DO
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO PLACE POPS IN THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH
IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z /10 AM CDT/ BEFORE THE STRATUS LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4-5SM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT.
SCATTERED CUMULI ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUN
PROMOTES MIXING WITH CLOUD BASES RISING TO OVER 3000 FT. A REPEAT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BKN012-BKN018 FORECAST AFTER 10Z /5AM CDT/ FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KPRX AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
CASE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. 09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.
WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 10 20
WACO, TX 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 85 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20
DENTON, TX 87 70 84 70 83 / 20 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 70 85 70 84 / 30 20 20 10 20
DALLAS, TX 90 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 89 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/85
000
FXUS64 KFWD 231142 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE HAS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS
TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z /10 AM CDT/ BEFORE THE STRATUS LIFTS
AND SCATTERS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...
BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4-5SM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT.
SCATTERED CUMULI ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUN
PROMOTES MIXING WITH CLOUD BASES RISING TO OVER 3000 FT. A REPEAT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY WITH BKN012-BKN018 FORECAST AFTER 10Z /5AM CDT/ FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE KPRX AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF DFW
METRO AIRPORTS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
CASE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. 09
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.
WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 86 71 85 / 10 20 20 10 20
WACO, TX 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 85 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20
DENTON, TX 87 70 84 70 83 / 10 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 70 85 70 84 / 10 20 20 10 20
DALLAS, TX 90 73 88 72 87 / 10 20 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 89 71 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230812
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS INCREASING DEW
POINTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM IN SOUTHERN OK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS QUITE DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE WEAK FORCING AND DETERMINING
THE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THE WEAK RIDGING OVER TX
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF
CONVECTION AND MODEL POP SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA RANGE FROM DRY TO
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...THE
LOW POPS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE AREAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SORT OF MCS MOVING SOUTH AND SPREADING EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS THAN THE CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST...SO I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY AFFECT NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPANDING
OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH TX
AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRIDAY EVENING...WITH LOW POPS
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN HALF SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
CONVECTION DOES FORM AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AND WHAT DIRECTION
IT MOVES.
WITH SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT CONVECTION OCCURS.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY...EXTENDING SOUTH TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND I ADDED LOW POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 86 71 85 / 10 20 20 10 20
WACO, TX 90 73 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 85 68 81 69 82 / 40 20 20 10 20
DENTON, TX 87 70 84 70 83 / 10 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 70 85 70 84 / 10 20 20 10 20
DALLAS, TX 90 73 88 72 87 / 10 20 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 89 71 87 70 87 / 10 20 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 71 86 70 84 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230501 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF STRATUS WILL ALSO
REDUCE THE EXTENT OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE EXTENT
OF THE RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
SOME STRATOCU 2-4KFT AGL ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO. EXPECT THIS
LAYER TO LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS BEFORE DAWN...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.
EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCING THIS WITH THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE 06Z DFW TAF. THE
STRATOCU WILL BECOME VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 65 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 65 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230251 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN THIS (WEDNESDAY) MORNING.
THE CU FIELD MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FWD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.
EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE...THIS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE 24-30HR
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 65 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 65 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 230008 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN THIS (WEDNESDAY) MORNING.
THE CU FIELD MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FWD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.
EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE 06Z PACKAGE...THIS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE 24-30HR
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 67 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 65 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 67 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 68 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 64 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 221952
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 71 85 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 67 90 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 61 84 65 81 63 / 10 10 20 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 87 68 84 67 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 63 87 70 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 67 91 73 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 65 90 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 67 91 71 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 68 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 64 91 70 86 68 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 221714
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...DAMP GROUND AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS MORNING AND STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION 3 MILES AND 1000 FT CEILINGS IN
WACO FROM 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500 MB AND THE BEST
LIFT STAYS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL EVALUATE THIS
MORNING/S MODEL RUNS FOR MORE INSIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO
OUR EAST. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 64 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 82 63 85 69 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 84 64 87 70 84 / 5 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 85 64 88 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 88 65 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 86 66 90 72 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 67 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 86 68 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 65 91 70 87 / 5 10 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 221621 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500 MB AND THE BEST
LIFT STAYS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION REACHING OUR CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL EVALUATE THIS
MORNING/S MODEL RUNS FOR MORE INSIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO
OUR EAST. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK SLOWLY WEST...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE METRO-AREA TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. IT IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR VISIBILITY
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z AT DAL AND DFW BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. MEANWHILE WACO HAS ALREADY BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN 4SM AND
A QUARTER OF A MILE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
KACT TAF. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING. 30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 64 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 82 63 85 69 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 84 64 87 70 84 / 5 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 85 64 88 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 88 65 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 86 66 90 72 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 67 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 86 68 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 65 91 70 87 / 5 10 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 221050
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK SLOWLY WEST...SO
THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE METRO-AREA TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN NOW AND
15Z. IT IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR VISIBILITY
FORECAST THROUGH 15Z AT DAL AND DFW BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. MEANWHILE WACO HAS ALREADY BEEN WAFFLING BETWEEN 4SM AND
A QUARTER OF A MILE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO 1/2SM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE
KACT TAF. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
MORNING.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 64 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 82 63 85 69 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 84 64 87 70 84 / 5 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 85 64 88 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 88 65 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 86 66 90 72 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 67 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 86 68 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 65 91 70 87 / 5 10 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/84
000
FXUS64 KFWD 220802
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND NOW FOG IS FORMING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE DENSE FOG...AND IT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO TTEXAS THURSDAY MORNING
LOCATED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADVECT EAST INTO THE AREA. I HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE CONVECTIVE
EXTENT DEPENDS ON JUST HOW STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE WILL ACTUALLY
SUPPORT THE EVENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MOST
DAYS...THE POPS ARE QUITE LOW AND THE ECMWF SEEMS DRIER. HAVE GONE
WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IF LATER RUNS BECOME WETTER
POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AS
WELL. AFTER THE LAST WEEK/S EVENTS...ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY BORING
FORECAST. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 64 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 82 63 85 69 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
DENTON, TX 84 64 87 70 84 / 5 10 10 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 85 64 88 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
DALLAS, TX 88 65 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 86 66 90 72 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 67 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 86 68 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 65 91 70 87 / 5 10 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KFWD 220445
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ALL TAF
LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY BE VFR BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS IS NOT EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH
MOIST GROUND SOILS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE
FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY GROUND FOG AND WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN THE 2-5 SM RANGE FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE REDUCTIONS CLOSER TO 1 SM.
FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 14-15Z. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...
CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN PAST MIDNIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THAT
LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING
SOME DIME TO NICKEL HAIL AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
11 PM.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS INDICATING FOG MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE WET GROUND FROM TODAYS RAIN
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE IN
THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WE WILL BE DROPPING COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO
WEATHERFORD...GLEN ROSE AND GOLDTHWAITE LINE FROM THE TORNADO WATCH WITH
THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 MPH
AT MID AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AROUND 7PM. THE CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY BEEN A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND PRODUCER WITH MANY SITES REPORTING GUSTS 50-70
MPH. DENTON ASOS REPORTED A GUST TO 73 MPH AT 138 PM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...OVER THE NORTHWEST ONE
HALF IN THE MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 61 89 67 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 59 84 61 86 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 59 86 63 88 68 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 60 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 61 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 61 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 62 89 67 92 70 / 40 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 62 89 67 92 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 58 89 64 91 69 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 220158 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
858 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...
CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN PAST MIDNIGHT IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THAT
LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING
SOME DIME TO NICKEL HAIL AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
11 PM.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH IS INDICATING FOG MAINLY EAST
OF I-35 BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE WET GROUND FROM TODAYS RAIN
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE IN
THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND
THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. KAFW...KFTW...KGKY AND KACT ARE ALREADY VFR.
KDFW AND KDAL WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01-02Z.
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 10 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RICH GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THE FOG COULD BE GROUND FOG. FOR NOW...WILL PREVAIL 2-3 SM
BEGINNING AT 10Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1-2 SM. AS THE FOG BEGINS
TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...COULD ALSO SEE VERY LOW CLOUDS TEMPORARILY
DEVELOP. ANY FOG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14-15Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TOMORROW...WINDS WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AND
VFR WILL PREVAIL.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WE WILL BE DROPPING COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO
WEATHERFORD...GLEN ROSE AND GOLDTHWAITE LINE FROM THE TORNADO WATCH WITH
THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 MPH
AT MID AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AROUND 7PM. THE CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY BEEN A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND PRODUCER WITH MANY SITES REPORTING GUSTS 50-70
MPH. DENTON ASOS REPORTED A GUST TO 73 MPH AT 138 PM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...OVER THE NORTHWEST ONE
HALF IN THE MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 62 89 67 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 60 84 61 86 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 60 86 63 88 68 / 10 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 61 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 61 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 62 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 62 89 67 92 70 / 40 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 63 89 67 92 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 58 89 64 91 69 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 212337 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND
THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. KAFW...KFTW...KGKY AND KACT ARE ALREADY VFR.
KDFW AND KDAL WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH 01-02Z.
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 10 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RICH GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THE FOG COULD BE GROUND FOG. FOR NOW...WILL PREVAIL 2-3 SM
BEGINNING AT 10Z AT THE TAF SITES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1-2 SM. AS THE FOG BEGINS
TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...COULD ALSO SEE VERY LOW CLOUDS TEMPORARILY
DEVELOP. ANY FOG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14-15Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TOMORROW...WINDS WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AND
VFR WILL PREVAIL.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WE WILL BE DROPPING COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO
WEATHERFORD...GLEN ROSE AND GOLDTHWAITE LINE FROM THE TORNADO WATCH WITH
THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 MPH
AT MID AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AROUND 7PM. THE CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY BEEN A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND PRODUCER WITH MANY SITES REPORTING GUSTS 50-70
MPH. DENTON ASOS REPORTED A GUST TO 73 MPH AT 138 PM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...OVER THE NORTHWEST ONE
HALF IN THE MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 61 84 61 86 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 59 86 63 88 68 / 20 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 60 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 61 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 63 89 67 92 69 / 30 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 60 89 64 91 69 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KFWD 212027
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL BE DROPPING COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO
WEATHERFORD...GLEN ROSE AND GOLDTHWAITE LINE FROM THE TORNADO WATCH WITH
THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 MPH
AT MID AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AROUND 7PM. THE CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY BEEN A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND PRODUCER WITH MANY SITES REPORTING GUSTS 50-70
MPH. DENTON ASOS REPORTED A GUST TO 73 MPH AT 138 PM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...OVER THE NORTHWEST ONE
HALF IN THE MORNING WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
IMPULSES IN THIS UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM...BUT MANY TIMES IN THE PAST THIS WEEKEND HAS TURNED OUT TO
BE A STORMY ONE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SAT-MON DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 65 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 62 84 61 86 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 58 86 63 88 68 / 20 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 59 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 65 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 67 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 67 89 67 92 69 / 30 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 59 89 64 91 69 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211742
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AND WACO BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
INCOMING 18Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A SMALL CAP STILL IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IN A COUPLE OF HOURS THAT CAP SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
CONTINUED HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANY STORM THAT
IMPACTS ANY OF THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD END AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
BY 00Z AND WACO BY 02Z. AFTER STORMS END...CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z AT THE METROPLEX SITES AND
WACO BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
FROM 14 TO 18 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS
BEFORE 06Z. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE IS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES
IT ALONG A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE AROUND 2 PM AND ALONG AN EMORY
TO LAMPASAS LINE BY 5 PM. LEAD STORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD STILL
PRODUCE TORNADOES...BUT THOSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM BOW ECHOES AND
LARGE HAIL.
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FALLING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER...ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKING THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE MID AND LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONGOING
STORMS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DISCRETE CELLS...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR INCLUDING DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY SPC DAY 1 MODERATE
RISK AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SHIFTING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND
HEADS FOR THE MS VALLEY....BRINGING OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
LINGERING POPS NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MEMORIAL DAY. 30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 65 87 68 89 / 70 30 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 40 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 64 85 63 85 / 80 30 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 80 62 87 65 88 / 80 20 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 81 63 87 64 86 / 80 30 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 83 66 88 69 90 / 70 30 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 84 65 86 65 87 / 80 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 87 67 87 68 88 / 80 40 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 88 68 89 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 81 61 88 65 90 / 80 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211628 AAD
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE IS BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES
IT ALONG A SHERMAN TO EASTLAND LINE AROUND 2 PM AND ALONG AN EMORY
TO LAMPASAS LINE BY 5 PM. LEAD STORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD STILL
PRODUCE TORNADOES...BUT THOSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM BOW ECHOES AND
LARGE HAIL.
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FALLING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM TIMING STILL PROBLEMATIC...WITH RAP/NAM FORECASTING
15Z TSRA ARRIVAL AT METRO AIRPORTS AND HRRR/OUN WRF INDICATING
18Z. WRF ARW FAVORS 20Z AND TTU WRF IS THE LATEST WITH A 21Z
ARRIVAL. ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA HAS SHOWN NO TENDENCY TO
MOVE SOUTH YET...BUT THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FREDERICK
RADAR MOVING SOUTH. WILL TIME THE VCTS IN FOR 16Z AND THE TSRA IN
FOR 18Z FOR THESE TAFS...BUT STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE ONCE
CONVECTION FIRES NEAR THE FRONT AND CAN BE TIMED.
TODAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH END EVENT...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATION INTERESTS. A SIGNIFICANT
PERCENTAGE OF THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HAIL...AND SHOULD A HAIL CORE MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGE IS HIGH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING...AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH UNTIL THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE MID- LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
NEAR OR SOUTH OF WACO.
STORM TIMING AT WACO WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER METROPLEX
ARRIVAL...AND HAVE CURRENTLY INDICATED 20Z. WACO IS ALSO IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WITH ALL THE ATTENDANT HAZARDS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER...ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKING THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE MID AND LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONGOING
STORMS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DISCRETE CELLS...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR INCLUDING DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY SPC DAY 1 MODERATE
RISK AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SHIFTING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND
HEADS FOR THE MS VALLEY....BRINGING OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
LINGERING POPS NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MEMORIAL DAY. 30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 65 87 68 89 / 70 30 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 40 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 64 85 63 85 / 80 30 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 80 62 87 65 88 / 80 20 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 81 63 87 64 86 / 80 30 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 83 66 88 69 90 / 70 30 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 84 65 86 65 87 / 80 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 87 67 87 68 88 / 80 40 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 88 68 89 68 88 / 60 50 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 81 61 88 65 90 / 80 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211445 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS INTO THREE HOUR INCREMENTS TO BETTER DEFINE THE
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE TODAY. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM TIMING STILL PROBLEMATIC...WITH RAP/NAM FORECASTING
15Z TSRA ARRIVAL AT METRO AIRPORTS AND HRRR/OUN WRF INDICATING
18Z. WRF ARW FAVORS 20Z AND TTU WRF IS THE LATEST WITH A 21Z
ARRIVAL. ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA HAS SHOWN NO TENDENCY TO
MOVE SOUTH YET...BUT THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FREDERICK
RADAR MOVING SOUTH. WILL TIME THE VCTS IN FOR 16Z AND THE TSRA IN
FOR 18Z FOR THESE TAFS...BUT STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE ONCE
CONVECTION FIRES NEAR THE FRONT AND CAN BE TIMED.
TODAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH END EVENT...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATION INTERESTS. A SIGNIFICANT
PERCENTAGE OF THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HAIL...AND SHOULD A HAIL CORE MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGE IS HIGH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING...AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH UNTIL THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE MID- LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
NEAR OR SOUTH OF WACO.
STORM TIMING AT WACO WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER METROPLEX
ARRIVAL...AND HAVE CURRENTLY INDICATED 20Z. WACO IS ALSO IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WITH ALL THE ATTENDANT HAZARDS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER...ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKING THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE MID AND LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONGOING
STORMS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DISCRETE CELLS...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR INCLUDING DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY SPC DAY 1 MODERATE
RISK AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SHIFTING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND
HEADS FOR THE MS VALLEY....BRINGING OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
LINGERING POPS NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 65 87 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 64 85 63 85 / 80 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 80 62 87 65 88 / 80 20 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 81 63 87 64 86 / 60 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 83 66 88 69 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 84 65 86 65 87 / 80 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 87 67 87 68 88 / 80 30 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 88 68 89 68 88 / 60 30 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 81 61 88 65 90 / 60 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211034
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM TIMING STILL PROBLEMATIC...WITH RAP/NAM FORECASTING
15Z TSRA ARRIVAL AT METRO AIRPORTS AND HRRR/OUN WRF INDICATING
18Z. WRF ARW FAVORS 20Z AND TTU WRF IS THE LATEST WITH A 21Z
ARRIVAL. ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA HAS SHOWN NO TENDENCY TO
MOVE SOUTH YET...BUT THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FREDERICK
RADAR MOVING SOUTH. WILL TIME THE VCTS IN FOR 16Z AND THE TSRA IN
FOR 18Z FOR THESE TAFS...BUT STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE ONCE
CONVECTION FIRES NEAR THE FRONT AND CAN BE TIMED.
TODAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HIGH END EVENT...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT TO AVIATION INTERESTS. A SIGNIFICANT
PERCENTAGE OF THE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HAIL...AND SHOULD A HAIL CORE MOVE OVER AN AIRPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGE IS HIGH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING...AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH UNTIL THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE MID- LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
NEAR OR SOUTH OF WACO.
STORM TIMING AT WACO WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER METROPLEX
ARRIVAL...AND HAVE CURRENTLY INDICATED 20Z. WACO IS ALSO IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WITH ALL THE ATTENDANT HAZARDS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER...ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKING THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE MID AND LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONGOING
STORMS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DISCRETE CELLS...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR INCLUDING DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY SPC DAY 1 MODERATE
RISK AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SHIFTING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND
HEADS FOR THE MS VALLEY....BRINGING OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
LINGERING POPS NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 65 87 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 64 85 63 85 / 60 40 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 80 62 87 65 88 / 60 30 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 81 63 87 64 86 / 60 30 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 83 66 88 69 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 84 65 86 65 87 / 70 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 87 67 87 68 88 / 60 40 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 88 68 89 68 88 / 50 30 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 81 61 88 65 90 / 50 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210857
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
REGION OVER OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...PROVIDING LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK NEAR THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER...ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKING THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE MID AND LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ONGOING
STORMS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND MIDDAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DISCRETE CELLS...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR INCLUDING DALLAS-FORT WORTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY SPC DAY 1 MODERATE
RISK AREA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SHIFTING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST AND
HEADS FOR THE MS VALLEY....BRINGING OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT STORM DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
LINGERING POPS NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 65 87 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
WACO, TX 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 79 64 85 63 85 / 60 40 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 80 62 87 65 88 / 60 30 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 81 63 87 64 86 / 60 30 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 83 66 88 69 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 84 65 86 65 87 / 70 30 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 87 67 87 68 88 / 60 40 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 88 68 89 68 88 / 50 30 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 81 61 88 65 90 / 50 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/30
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210536
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD REACH WACO BY 07Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN WACO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY AND BECOME VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A 45 TO 50 KNOT JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
SOME OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
PROBLEMS WITH THUNDERSTORM TIMING...
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE LATE
MORNING...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE MORNING
TIMING BECAUSE THERE ARE TOO MANY MODELS INDICATING IT TO
IGNORE...AND WILL ADJUST TO LATER IF THE MODELS COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES... NEARLY ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 PM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 10 PM.
WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
FOR THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS IN MOST AREAS AND
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 69 90 69 / 40 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 67 89 70 89 69 / 60 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 63 85 64 84 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 88 65 87 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 64 88 65 86 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 69 89 72 89 71 / 40 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 67 88 69 87 67 / 60 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 88 70 88 70 / 70 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 68 88 69 87 69 / 60 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 89 66 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210438
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL DEVELOPING
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD REACH WACO BY 07Z AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY
FALL TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN WACO. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY AND BECOME VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
A 45 TO 50 KNOT JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
SOME OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE
WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES... NEARLY ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 PM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 10 PM.
WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
FOR THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS IN MOST AREAS AND
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 86 65 88 69 / 30 60 40 10 10
WACO, TX 72 89 67 89 70 / 40 60 60 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 81 63 85 64 / 30 70 40 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 85 62 88 65 / 30 50 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 84 64 88 65 / 30 70 30 10 10
DALLAS, TX 72 86 69 89 72 / 30 60 40 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 86 67 88 69 / 30 70 60 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 87 70 88 70 / 20 60 70 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 88 68 88 69 / 40 50 60 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 87 61 89 66 / 30 50 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ103>105-
118>123-133>135-145>148-159>161.
&&
$$
79/79
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210251
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES... NEARLY ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 PM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 10 PM.
WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
FOR THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS IN MOST AREAS AND
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST ACCARS KDFW SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE METROPLEX...THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY METROPLEX TAF SITE THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE
CONVECTION WEST OF KACT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z BEFORE REACHING
THE AIRPORT. IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AFTER SUNSET...THEN UPDATES
WILL BE WARRANTED BEFORE THE REGULAR UPDATE AT 03Z.
TUESDAY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE FORMING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX 18-22Z AND THROUGH KACT 22-00Z. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ONLY MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...BUT
DO FEEL THAT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME
EXTENT BY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SOMETIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 18KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 22-24KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 86 65 88 69 / 30 60 40 10 10
WACO, TX 72 89 67 89 70 / 40 60 60 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 81 63 85 64 / 30 70 40 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 85 62 88 65 / 30 50 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 84 64 88 65 / 30 70 30 10 10
DALLAS, TX 72 86 69 89 72 / 30 60 40 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 86 67 88 69 / 30 70 60 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 87 70 88 70 / 20 60 70 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 88 68 88 69 / 40 50 60 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 87 61 89 66 / 30 50 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/79
000
FXUS64 KFWD 202329 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
LATEST ACCARS KDFW SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE METROPLEX...THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY METROPLEX TAF SITE THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE
CONVECTION WEST OF KACT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z BEFORE REACHING
THE AIRPORT. IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AFTER SUNSET...THEN UPDATES
WILL BE WARRANTED BEFORE THE REGULAR UPDATE AT 03Z.
TUESDAY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE FORMING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX 18-22Z AND THROUGH KACT 22-00Z. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ONLY MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...BUT
DO FEEL THAT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME
EXTENT BY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SOMETIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 18KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 22-24KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 86 65 88 69 / 30 60 40 10 10
WACO, TX 72 89 67 89 70 / 10 60 60 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 81 63 85 64 / 60 70 40 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 85 62 88 65 / 40 50 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 84 64 88 65 / 40 70 30 10 10
DALLAS, TX 72 86 69 89 72 / 30 60 40 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 86 67 88 69 / 30 70 60 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 87 70 88 70 / 10 60 70 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 88 68 88 69 / 10 50 60 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 87 61 89 66 / 30 50 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/
000
FXUS64 KFWD 202138 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
438 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM COMANCHE COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO YOUNG AND
JACK COUNTIES. ALSO ADDED HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AND HOURLY GRIDS. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 86 65 88 69 / 30 60 40 10 10
WACO, TX 72 89 67 89 70 / 10 60 60 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 81 63 85 64 / 60 70 40 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 85 62 88 65 / 40 50 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 84 64 88 65 / 40 70 30 10 10
DALLAS, TX 72 86 69 89 72 / 30 60 40 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 86 67 88 69 / 30 70 60 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 87 70 88 70 / 10 60 70 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 88 68 88 69 / 10 50 60 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 87 61 89 66 / 30 50 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KFWD 202006
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 86 65 88 69 / 30 60 40 10 10
WACO, TX 72 89 67 89 70 / 10 60 60 10 10
PARIS, TX 69 81 63 85 64 / 60 70 40 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 85 62 88 65 / 40 50 20 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 84 64 88 65 / 40 70 30 10 10
DALLAS, TX 72 86 69 89 72 / 30 60 40 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 86 67 88 69 / 30 70 60 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 87 70 88 70 / 10 60 70 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 88 68 88 69 / 10 50 60 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 87 61 89 66 / 30 50 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
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