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000
FXUS64 KFWD 040800
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD VIEW OF THE CONUS REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TAILING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A
STATIONARY FRONT...AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THESE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PUSH SOUTH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS INDICATE OTHERWISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VEERED WINDS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH YOU GO. WHATEVER THE CASE...A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT PATTERN PRETTY WELL AND WE WILL USE THEM AS A
STARTING POINT FOR TODAY/S POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR
PARIS...AND THE LOWEST NEAR LAMPASAS. IF OUTFLOW PUSHES FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN PLANNED WE WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

ANYWAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
FOR THE EVENING FESTIVITIES...CONVECTION SHOULD BEHAVE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE
STRONGEST.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING WEDNESDAY AS
THE WEAK FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS...GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN BUT
GIVEN AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE...IT IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE
ADDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 08-15Z PERIOD...
BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WACO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS
HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 36 HOURS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  77  93  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              92  74  92  75  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             86  72  89  74  90 /  40  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            90  75  93  76  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  76  91  75  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            91  79  94  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           88  74  92  74  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  75  92  75  92 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  73  92  75  92 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  73  94  74  94 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040800
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD VIEW OF THE CONUS REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TAILING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A
STATIONARY FRONT...AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THESE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PUSH SOUTH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS INDICATE OTHERWISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VEERED WINDS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH YOU GO. WHATEVER THE CASE...A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT PATTERN PRETTY WELL AND WE WILL USE THEM AS A
STARTING POINT FOR TODAY/S POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR
PARIS...AND THE LOWEST NEAR LAMPASAS. IF OUTFLOW PUSHES FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN PLANNED WE WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

ANYWAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
FOR THE EVENING FESTIVITIES...CONVECTION SHOULD BEHAVE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE
STRONGEST.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING WEDNESDAY AS
THE WEAK FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS...GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN BUT
GIVEN AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE...IT IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE
ADDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 08-15Z PERIOD...
BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WACO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS
HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 36 HOURS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  77  93  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              92  74  92  75  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             86  72  89  74  90 /  40  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            90  75  93  76  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  76  91  75  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            91  79  94  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           88  74  92  74  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  75  92  75  92 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  73  92  75  92 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  73  94  74  94 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 040504 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS...GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN BUT
GIVEN AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE...IT IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE
ADDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 08-15Z PERIOD...
BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WACO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS
HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 36 HOURS.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  10  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  40  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  10  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040504 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS...GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN BUT
GIVEN AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE...IT IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE
ADDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 08-15Z PERIOD...
BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WACO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS
HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 36 HOURS.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  10  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  40  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  10  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040504 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS...GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN BUT
GIVEN AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE...IT IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE
ADDED VCSH IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR THE 08-15Z PERIOD...
BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WACO AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...THUS
HAVE PLACED BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 36 HOURS.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  10  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  40  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  10  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032345
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
THE TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS THAT FORMED FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...
HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z...AND
SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 10Z. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 36 HOURS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  40  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032345
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST HOUR AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
QUITE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT OVERNIGHT TO OUR NORTH. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
THE TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS THAT FORMED FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...
HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z...AND
SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 10Z. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 36 HOURS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  40  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032339 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS THAT FORMED FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...
HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z...AND
SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 10Z. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 36 HOURS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  60  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  60  40  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  60  50  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  40  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  30  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032339 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS THAT FORMED FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...
HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 06Z...AND
SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 10Z. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE 36 HOURS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  60  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  60  40  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  60  50  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  40  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  30  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  60  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  60  40  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  60  50  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  40  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  30  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE CHANCES FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. 2 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG A BOWIE TO MCKINNEY
TO EMORY LINE. THE FRONT HAS REORIENTED ITSELF FROM EAST TO WEST
EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK ONE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SECOND...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS IS IN A POSITION
TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SO THINK THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE OF ANY NEW RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO DO NOT THINK
ANY EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY RELATED FESTIVITIES WILL BE A
COMPLETE WASH OUT. DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOT
REALLY MADE ANY PROGRESS DUE SOUTH TOWARDS DOWNTOWN DALLAS OR FORT
WORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WERE HELD IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. KEPT POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST STORMS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A
DAMAGING MICROBURST FROM A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT CAPE IS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
REGIONAL MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...AND THE KFWS RAOB HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.90 INCHES. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SINGLE
TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE THREATS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT AT
THIS TIME. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...BUT COULD
BECOME A LARGER SCALE THREAT IF THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS GREATER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SWINGING EAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
SOME DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND WILL
HELP INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT AS WELL. AS A RESULT...THINK
THAT THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THIS SOLUTION INDICATES THAT A MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MOVE DUE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.

OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A SUPER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BY ANY MEANS...THE CHANGE
IN DIRECTION AND SPEED IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DOES PROMOTE A
SITUATION WHERE THE PROPAGATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
JUST AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER THAN THE MEAN LAYER OR
ADVECTIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...THE MULTICELL CLUSTER IS EXPECTED
TO SINK ALMOST DUE SOUTH...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING OR GENERATING NEW
UPDRAFTS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THESE STORMS DRAGGING THE CLUSTER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 09Z. HAVE 60
PERCENT POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
EMORY LINE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION.

THINK THAT THE BACKBUILDING COMPONENT OF THE MULTICELL CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVING EAST OF THE REGION...THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENING
SHOULD CAUSE THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DISSIPATE JUST
EAST/NORTHEAST OF DALLAS BY 15Z/10AM.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TIED TO WHATEVER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS IN TACT. LEFT
POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE OVERNIGHT MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THERE...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DFW AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THE CLUSTER DOES NOT PAN OUT AS
EXPECTED...POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
TOMORROW. IF THE CLUSTER MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS TO WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO
THE NAM...SO THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
EVENING INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE CWA...SO KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT THIS TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH OR WEST MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS. AT THIS TIME ONLY LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO
EMORY LINE ON SUNDAY AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
GETTING FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
TUESDAY...SO IT MAY STALL OUT BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE CWA.

THINK THAT THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS HELPING
THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EXPLAINS WHY MOST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 40 TO 60 POPS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. IT IS FAIRLY UNCOMMON FOR A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS IN JULY...SO WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT IS LINED UP
WITH STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA AS ADVERTISED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A SOLID LINE OF
STORMS ON THAT FRONT BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER.
IF IT GETS HERE...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS. IF WE HAVE 4-5
DAYS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE END OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY START FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY
INCREASES THE HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  76  92  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
WACO, TX              74  93  74  91  75 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             72  88  73  88  74 /  60  60  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  91  75 /  60  40  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  89  75  90  75 /  60  50  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  77 /  40  30  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  89  74  89  74 /  40  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  91  74 /  20  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  73  92  74 /  30  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031744 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.




75

&&

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031744 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.




75

&&

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031744 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS AT KACT SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SHRA INITIALLY...THEN
TRANSITION TO TSRA BETWEEN 20-24Z AS AFTERNOON HEATING CREATES
MORE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
KDFW AWW FOR LIGHTNING WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN NORTHEAST...AROUND KPRX...THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

KACT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS 11-15Z ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G24KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.




75

&&

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031716
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.

FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031716
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

AS OF NOON...SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER NORTH TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALSO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED A
COLD FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
AT NOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION IN CELEBRATION OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. BECAUSE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE PRIMARY LIFTING/FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL BE THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BEST MESOSCALE LIFT DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN WHERE NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE TIME THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS ARE PLANNED.

THE LONGER THAT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SINK. AS OF NOON...THE FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF DALLAS AND
TARRANT COUNTIES AND WAS NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF DFW PROPER...THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
A DECATUR TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THE HRRR IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO RESOLVE THIS BOUNDARY
APPROPRIATELY...AND ADVERTISES QUITE A BIT OF NEW CONVECTION BY
21Z/4PM RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
SUMMER...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ORIGIN OF
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT CLOSELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE
FORECAST UPDATES IF IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN POSITION.

EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OF EVENING FESTIVITIES MAY BE
AVOIDED EVEN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE
NEAR THE FRONT...CERTAINLY HAVE A WAY TO SEEK SOME TEMPORARY
SHELTER AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT AS WELL BECAUSE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL IN PLACE
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.

FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  50  40  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 / 100  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  60  60  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  50  40  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  50  50  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 031125
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY OR AFTER MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...BUT
WILL TRY TO RESTRICT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING FOR
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. WILL SHOW VCSH
IN TAFS FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN A BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR VICINITY
WHICH MAY INTERRUPT THE PREVAILING S/SW FLOW EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT
OCCUR ON STATION. WILL SHOW VARIABLE WINDS TEMPO GROUP.

FOR WACO...PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  40  30  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 /  60  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  50  40  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  40  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY WEDGED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS NORTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO GOOD MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LIE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE
IN PLACE. SLOW SOUTHWARD STORM MOTION WILL BRING STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A
COMANCHE-PALESTINE LINE.

WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A
STORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THE TIME MOST JULY 4TH
FIREWORKS COMMENCE.

BY SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
NORTH FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-
END POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LATE MORNING HOURS.
STRATUS IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  76  92  76  92 /  40  30  30  20  10
WACO, TX              93  74  92  74  92 /  20   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             86  72  87  73  88 /  60  60  50  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  73  91  74  91 /  50  40  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          91  74  91  75  90 /  50  40  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  76  92  77  93 /  40  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           91  74  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  91  74  91 /  20  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  92  73  91 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LATE MORNING HOURS.
STRATUS IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

78

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  75  92  75 /  20  40  30  30  20
WACO, TX              75  93  75  92  75 /   5   5   5  20   5
PARIS, TX             73  86  71  88  71 /  50  70  60  50  50
DENTON, TX            76  92  74  91  74 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  73  91  73 /  20  50  40  40  30
DALLAS, TX            76  94  76  92  76 /  20  40  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           77  92  75  90  74 /  10  40  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  93  74  91  74 /   5  20  10  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  91  73 /   5   5   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030036
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...SO WENT WITH BKN015. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY TO MIDDAY SHOWERS FOR TERMINALS
IN THE METROPLEX. CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO
CONTINUED WITH THE VICINITY ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE METROPLEX.

78

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  75  92  75 /  20  40  30  30  20
WACO, TX              75  93  75  92  75 /   5   5   5  20   5
PARIS, TX             73  86  71  88  71 /  50  70  60  50  50
DENTON, TX            76  92  74  91  74 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  73  91  73 /  20  50  40  40  30
DALLAS, TX            76  94  76  92  76 /  20  40  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           77  92  75  90  74 /  10  40  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  93  74  91  74 /   5  20  10  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  91  73 /   5   5   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78





000
FXUS64 KFWD 030036
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...SO WENT WITH BKN015. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY TO MIDDAY SHOWERS FOR TERMINALS
IN THE METROPLEX. CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO
CONTINUED WITH THE VICINITY ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE METROPLEX.

78

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  75  92  75 /  20  40  30  30  20
WACO, TX              75  93  75  92  75 /   5   5   5  20   5
PARIS, TX             73  86  71  88  71 /  50  70  60  50  50
DENTON, TX            76  92  74  91  74 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  73  91  73 /  20  50  40  40  30
DALLAS, TX            76  94  76  92  76 /  20  40  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           77  92  75  90  74 /  10  40  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  93  74  91  74 /   5  20  10  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  91  73 /   5   5   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              74  94  74  92  76 /   5   5   0  20   5
PARIS, TX             72  87  72  87  73 /  50  70  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            75  93  74  90  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  73  89  74 /  20  50  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  94  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           74  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  74  91  75 /   5  20   5  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  92  74 /   5   5   0  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              74  94  74  92  76 /   5   5   0  20   5
PARIS, TX             72  87  72  87  73 /  50  70  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            75  93  74  90  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  73  89  74 /  20  50  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  94  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           74  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  74  91  75 /   5  20   5  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  92  74 /   5   5   0  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 022027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              74  94  74  92  76 /   5   5   0  20   5
PARIS, TX             72  87  72  87  73 /  50  70  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            75  93  74  90  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  73  89  74 /  20  50  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  94  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           74  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  74  91  75 /   5  20   5  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  92  74 /   5   5   0  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 022027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER REGION TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND
ALSO PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
INITIATION POINTS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES TROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WILL HAVE THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST
POPS. WE WILL ALSO LINGER SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  93  76  91  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              74  94  74  92  76 /   5   5   0  20   5
PARIS, TX             72  87  72  87  73 /  50  70  50  50  50
DENTON, TX            75  93  74  90  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  73  89  74 /  20  50  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  94  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           74  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  74  91  75 /   5  20   5  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  73  92  74 /   5   5   0  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021749 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021749 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021749 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFFECTING THE DFW TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AT ALL TAF SITES.

CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THE METROPLEX AND COULD AFFECT A FEW TAF
SITES...MAINLY KDFW AND KDAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW TSRA CLOSE KDFW...BUT CHANCES OF A DIRECT HIT ARE LOW
AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF RELEASE. IF CONVECTION REACHES
ANY ONE OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THEN CIGS SHOULD GO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT METROPLEX CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS /015-025 BKN-OVC/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS KACT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
CIGS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. 75

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021134
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 AFTER
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIXING...WITH THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION
BEING SSW...AND WE WILL SHOW THE INCREASE AT 15Z IN THE MORNING
FORECASTS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT 03/13Z IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER TRENDS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021134
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 AFTER
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIXING...WITH THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION
BEING SSW...AND WE WILL SHOW THE INCREASE AT 15Z IN THE MORNING
FORECASTS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WE WILL INTRODUCE VCSH AT 03/13Z IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER TRENDS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020810
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING BETWEEN 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020810
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS A BIT LONGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT
WEST TONIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM AN MCS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS WILL HELP EASE A STATIONARY FRONT IN KS DOWN INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL OK. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATION FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID EVENING...A
30-40 KT LLJ WILL FEED INTO STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
CONGEAL ACTIVITY INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS. MODEST
SSE STEERING CURRENTS WILL MOVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
JUST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY HERE IN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW THIS FIRST MCS
CREATES WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REFORM NORTH OF I-20 OR WHERE
ANY OLD OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST MCS SETTLES IN...WHICH COULD BE
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER
MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND MOVE SE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON JULY
4TH WILL RE-IGNITE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEREVER THE MAIN
OUTFLOW SETS UP WITH MORE OF THE SAME THREATS FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN LATER ON SUNDAY
FOR SOME LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BEFORE THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS DAMPENING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE FAR NW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED MON/TUES IF THE RIDGE DOESN/T ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MUCH AS
I/M EXPECTING. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL
UPPER HIGH DOES STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS FOR SEASONABLY
HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS USUALLY EXPECTED IN EARLY JULY. WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 90S...THOUGH AFTER HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK COULD CREEP OVER 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE HUMID
AREAS EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING BETWEEN 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  76  93  76  91 /   5  20  40  20  30
WACO, TX              93  74  94  74  92 /   0   5   5   0  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  87  72  87 /  10  50  70  50  50
DENTON, TX            94  75  93  74  90 /   5  20  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  91  73  89 /   5  20  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  77  92 /   5  20  40  20  30
TERRELL, TX           94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  93  74  91 /   5   5  20   5  30
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  93  73  92 /   5   5   5   0  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  72  94  73  93 /   5  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020447 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING BETWEEN 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020447 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING BETWEEN 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER
SUNSET. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020207 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020207 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 012337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 012337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 012032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011723
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011723
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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