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000
FXUS64 KFWD 261137
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.AVIATION...
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.

AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

15-BAIN/TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261137
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.AVIATION...
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.

AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

15-BAIN/TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 261137
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.AVIATION...
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.

AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

15-BAIN/TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 261137
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.AVIATION...
FIRST CHALLENGE IS IFR STRATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD AFFECT DAL
AFTER 13Z...AND MAY CLIP GKY/DFW AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS
THIN AND STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY 15Z OR 16Z.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
THERE IS ABOUT 400-700 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 12000FT. DRY AIR BELOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST AND WOULD
ENHANCE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS...EVEN IF THERE IS
LITTLE RAINFALL. WILL SHOW A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS FOR THIS WAVE
OF ACTIVITY FROM 20-22Z...BUT TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER IT FIRES ON THE DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH
THAT THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...BUT SINCE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 00Z TO
04Z. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS WHEN UPPER FORCING WILL
BE STRONGEST. WILL SHOW TSRA FROM 4Z-9Z.

AFTER THAT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT KEEP SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TR.92

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

15-BAIN/TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
443 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.


15-BAIN/TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 23-03Z PERIOD.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
443 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

....POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST PORTION OF TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THEREAFTER...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR REVEALED THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS VERY DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE CLOSING OFF LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BENEATH A
STOUT EML THAT IS SIMULTANEOUSLY ADVECTING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ASCENT PRODUCED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW /AS EVIDENCED BY 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO GLEN ROSE TO KILLEEN LINE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING...SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS A 100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AND A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH OUT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME...THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY. THE STRONG
LIFT...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG....MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL EASILY SUPPORT A LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL THREAT. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...GENERALLY BEYOND A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO WACO LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT ACTUALLY INCREASES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WHILE CINH IS STILL LOW. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT WOULD
INCLUDE THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS.

UNLIKE MOST SEVERE EVENTS...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO FOSTER AN INCREASING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION IS EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MAY EVEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THE LACK
OF A STRONG CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MITIGATE THE LARGER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE 1.15-1.25 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER FORCING
DEPARTS THE REGION. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
OMEGA PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MAY.


15-BAIN/TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 23-03Z PERIOD.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  61  71  54  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
WACO, TX              86  65  76  54  67 /  30  40  50  40  10
PARIS, TX             85  57  67  53  62 /  30  60  70  70  30
DENTON, TX            84  60  67  52  64 /  30  70  70  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          84  59  68  53  64 /  30  70  70  70  20
DALLAS, TX            86  61  70  54  64 /  30  60  70  60  20
TERRELL, TX           87  61  71  55  64 /  20  50  70  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  73  54  65 /  10  30  60  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  65  80  54  67 /  30  30  40  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  74  55  65 /  40  70  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 23-03Z PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 02-06Z MONDAY PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 02-06Z MONDAY PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 02-06Z MONDAY PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 02-06Z MONDAY PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260443 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
CORSICANA TO ATHENS LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISPERSE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY /14-15Z/. THUS HAVE PLACED TEMPO
3SM BR SCT010 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD AT WACO.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAFS FOR THE 23-03Z PERIOD.


58

&&

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 260308 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 260308 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS OCCURRING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE COOLING
TREND IS A TAD AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO WE WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THESE TRENDS. RICH MOISTURE
LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS RESIDE.
THIS AIRMASS IS NUDGING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN INDICATING
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE THE MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME STORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            57  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            63  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           61  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         64  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            64  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252302 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252302 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 252302 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252302 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING. THUS HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF STARTING AT 02Z MONDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  20  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 252028
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION .THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  30  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 252028
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AT MID
AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WILL STEADILY MODIFY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO MIX EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION .THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE BEST RAIN/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY BUT THE
BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 1.5
INCHES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING BUT
SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ALLOWS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR GETS DEEPER
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  90  64  71  54 /   5  20  40  60  60
WACO, TX              62  87  64  76  54 /   5  20  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             58  86  58  67  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DENTON, TX            56  88  59  69  52 /   5  20  50  60  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  88  58  69  53 /   5  10  40  60  70
DALLAS, TX            65  90  63  70  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TERRELL, TX           63  89  62  72  55 /   5  10  40  60  70
CORSICANA, TX         66  85  67  73  54 /   5  10  40  60  60
TEMPLE, TX            65  87  65  80  54 /   5  30  40  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  87  65  74  55 /   5  30  50  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251704
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251704
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251704
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251704
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR A MODERATE CROSS
WIND THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS DUE TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR OR BELOW 12
KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE DFW TAF...GENERALLY SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251540
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...RISING TO AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO WHERE CROSSWINDS WILL NOT IMPACT RATES ON N-S
RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO 5 TO 10 KT. TR.92


&&




.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251540
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD IS RECEDING FROM SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS AND DECREASE
CLOUDINESS IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PER THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSION OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. WITH GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INCREASING...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S BY 3-4 PM.

66

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 531 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...RISING TO AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO WHERE CROSSWINDS WILL NOT IMPACT RATES ON N-S
RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO 5 TO 10 KT. TR.92


&&




.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/66




000
FXUS64 KFWD 251031
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...RISING TO AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO WHERE CROSSWINDS WILL NOT IMPACT RATES ON N-S
RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO 5 TO 10 KT. TR.92

&&




.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 251031
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...RISING TO AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO WHERE CROSSWINDS WILL NOT IMPACT RATES ON N-S
RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO 5 TO 10 KT. TR.92

&&




.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 250921
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 250921
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S SEVERE WX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCH TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER
A VERY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WX ON
SATURDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COUPLE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. FOR THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIER
AIR HAS YET TO REACH. IN ADDITION...RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR DUE
TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.
WHILE WACO/S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES SET BACK IN
1996 WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF REACH. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 91 SET BACK IN 1925 AT DFW WILL BE THREATENED. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A FEW 90S OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER WARMING. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND TODAY SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY REGION WIDE TONIGHT AS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR...COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /COURTESY OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND/ WILL BEGIN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PERHAPS A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

ON SUNDAY...A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS/ IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
NEW MEXICO ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS AREA SHOULD INCREASE. WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...THE VERY DIFFLUENT REGIME ALOFT AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 65+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RECENTLY. WHILE A STOUT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...30 TO 40
METER HEIGHT FALLS /INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY HEALTHY INSTABILITY PROFILE
/3000+ J/KG OF CAPE/ AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50
KNOTS SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. WITH THE STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY "FAT" CAPE PROFILE...LARGE HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET /WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS/ AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPORT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
THREAT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
OVERSPREADING  THE REST OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ON MONDAY...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD AS THE CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENE WILL UNFOLD. THAT BEING SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...THE
KINEMATIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOWLY SAGGING COLD
FRONT....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER...AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT
APPEARS THAT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SHIFT TO MORE OF AN OMEGA PATTERN
/RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST/ SETS
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

15-BAIN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  62  87  64  72 /   5   5  20  40  60
WACO, TX              89  61  86  65  78 /  10   5  20  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  53  85  58  68 /  10   5  10  40  60
DENTON, TX            86  59  86  61  70 /   5   5  20  50  60
MCKINNEY, TX          86  58  86  61  70 /   5   5  10  40  60
DALLAS, TX            89  64  88  64  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
TERRELL, TX           89  62  86  63  73 /  10   5  10  40  60
CORSICANA, TX         87  65  86  64  75 /  10   5  10  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  86  65  80 /  10   5  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  58  86  62  73 /   5   5  30  50  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 250502
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WENT DOWN TO LIFR NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX 02-04Z BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY
REMAIN TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THUS HAVE PLACED
4SM BR SCT004 AT FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD START TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY 14Z. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1023 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 500 FEET AND AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 09-11Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  86  61  87  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              63  87  61  86  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             63  84  58  85  58 /  50   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  10   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          62  85  58  86  61 /  20   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            62  88  63  88  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           63  87  60  86  63 /  40   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  63  86  64 /  70   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            63  89  63  86  65 /  60   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 250502
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WENT DOWN TO LIFR NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX 02-04Z BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY
REMAIN TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THUS HAVE PLACED
4SM BR SCT004 AT FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD START TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY 14Z. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1023 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 500 FEET AND AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 09-11Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  86  61  87  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              63  87  61  86  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             63  84  58  85  58 /  50   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  10   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          62  85  58  86  61 /  20   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            62  88  63  88  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           63  87  60  86  63 /  40   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  63  86  64 /  70   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            63  89  63  86  65 /  60   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 250323
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 500 FEET AND AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 09-11Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  86  61  87  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              63  87  61  86  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             63  84  58  85  58 /  50   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  10   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          62  85  58  86  61 /  20   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            62  88  63  88  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           63  87  60  86  63 /  40   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  63  86  64 /  70   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            63  89  63  86  65 /  60   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 250323
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...EXPECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 500 FEET AND AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 09-11Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  86  61  87  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              63  87  61  86  65 /  60   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             63  84  58  85  58 /  50   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  10   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          62  85  58  86  61 /  20   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            62  88  63  88  64 /  20   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           63  87  60  86  63 /  40   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  63  86  64 /  70   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            63  89  63  86  65 /  60   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241956
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 11 AM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  86  61  87  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              64  87  61  86  65 /  50   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             61  84  58  85  58 /  60   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  30   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  85  58  86  61 /  40   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            64  88  63  88  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           66  87  60  86  63 /  60   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  87  63  86  64 /  60   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  89  63  86  65 /  50   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241956
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 11 AM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  86  61  87  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              64  87  61  86  65 /  50   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             61  84  58  85  58 /  60   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  30   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  85  58  86  61 /  40   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            64  88  63  88  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           66  87  60  86  63 /  60   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  87  63  86  64 /  60   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  89  63  86  65 /  50   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241956
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 11 AM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  86  61  87  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              64  87  61  86  65 /  50   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             61  84  58  85  58 /  60   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  30   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  85  58  86  61 /  40   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            64  88  63  88  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           66  87  60  86  63 /  60   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  87  63  86  64 /  60   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  89  63  86  65 /  50   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241956
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...OUR THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE/DISCUSSION...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. MOST OF THE DETAILS REGARDING THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID
FROM THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION.

CHANGES FROM LATE THIS MORNING: A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY EAST OF WEATHERFORD...THROUGH 7
PM CDT.

CLOUDS CLEARED OUT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...WITH STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION MORE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH TO A QLCS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...BUT WAS NOT MOVING MUCH AS OF 2 PM.

WHEREVER SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST...SO THE POSITION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN TORNADOES...SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS
OCCURS AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD BRING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.
WITH MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE...EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE DRYLINE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CWA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY WENT
WITH A MENTION OF 30 POPS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN THIS FORECAST.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
VERY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE...BUT THE AMOUNT
OF THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR FREE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF STORMS WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER...THE
MORNING CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...IF IT IS OVER
NORTH TEXAS...OR TO OUR EAST...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. IF THE
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CWA OR JUST OFF TO THE WEST...MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME SIMPLY LEFT THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS
UPPER LOW. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ITS
EASTWARD TRACK IS RESOLVED BETTER BY FORECAST GUIDANCE.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 11 AM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  86  61  87  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
WACO, TX              64  87  61  86  65 /  50   5   5  20  30
PARIS, TX             61  84  58  85  58 /  60   5   5  10  30
DENTON, TX            60  86  57  86  61 /  30   0   5  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  85  58  86  61 /  40   5   5  20  30
DALLAS, TX            64  88  63  88  64 /  40   5   5  20  30
TERRELL, TX           66  87  60  86  63 /  60   5   5  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  87  63  86  64 /  60   5   5  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  89  63  86  65 /  50   5   5  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  87  57  86  62 /  10   0   5  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$

81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$

81




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$

81




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF
1730 Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS TO RAISE TO MVFR SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE AMPLE CLEARING...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO THE INCREASED SURFACE HEATING NECESSARY FOR INITIATION.
REGARDLESS...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SEVERE...AND ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGARDING WINDS...BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX SET OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX...SO WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH
NOW...SO EXPECT WINDS AT ALL DFW TERMINALS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT KACT...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
CIGS AND VSBY TO RAISE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. LIKEWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT AS WELL.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123.


&&

$$

81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241602
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
THE WEAK QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG. THE BOUNDARY WILL HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE IN LULL FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL SHOW
VCTS FROM 14-17Z AS THAT IS WHEN LIFT FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS WILL REMAIN BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN GENERAL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE A COUPLE HOURS FASTER...SEEMINGLY TAKING THE
CONVECTION THAT IS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO NOW AND PUSHING
THAT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 21-01Z. LATER
UPDATES TO REFINE THUNDER TIMING AND THREAT ARE LIKELY.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BEHIND ANY STORMS...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241602
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
THE WEAK QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG. THE BOUNDARY WILL HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE IN LULL FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL SHOW
VCTS FROM 14-17Z AS THAT IS WHEN LIFT FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS WILL REMAIN BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN GENERAL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE A COUPLE HOURS FASTER...SEEMINGLY TAKING THE
CONVECTION THAT IS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO NOW AND PUSHING
THAT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 21-01Z. LATER
UPDATES TO REFINE THUNDER TIMING AND THREAT ARE LIKELY.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BEHIND ANY STORMS...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241602
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...

...NORTH TEXAS MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...SPREADING RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
A RELATIVELY STRONG TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEFT A
SOMEWHAT MESSY ANALYSIS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE 15Z ANALYSIS
THERE WAS A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DFW AREA...MORE OR LESS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY.

15Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND ALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER WAS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT FROM CLEBURNE SOUTHWEST TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND SOUTH ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDORS. FROM GRANBURY TO CLEBURNE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMILTON...LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WERE HIGHLIGHTING A LOCAL MAXIMA OF LOW-LEVEL (0-3 KM)
CAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG...AND A LOW-LEVEL EHI OF JUST UNDER
2. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-
LEVEL UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL TO TILT LOW-LEVEL HORIZONTAL
VORTICITY INTO THE VERTICAL. THE PRIMARY MISSING INGREDIENT TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS THUS FAR HAS BEEN WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS...THERE
WERE NO STRONG OR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANALYZED UPSTREAM OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES APPEAR TO BE
AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO STRONG THETA-E CHANGE WITH
HEIGHT...LEADING TO A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN GENERAL...IT COULD
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF INITIAL UPDRAFTS TODAY. IF STORMS CAN
MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO INGEST SOME OF THE RELATIVELY
STRONG HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDICATED BY CALCULATED PARAMETERS...
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED...THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUPERCELL WILL PROMOTE
A MUCH STRONGER UPDRAFT THAN WHAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THERMODYNAMICS ALONE.

WITH STRONG FORCING UPSTREAM...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND ALMOST
NO CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CONVECTION CAN OFTEN STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS LATER ON. THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS THE LACK OF A STRONG
THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT NOT ONLY LIMITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...BUT IT ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF RAIN COOLED AIR...
I.E. THE RAIN IS NOT VERY COLD BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT TODAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING STORM
MODE AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. HERES WHAT WE`RE WATCHING
CLOSELY:

IN GENERAL...THE KINEMATIC OR WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE CERTAINLY HAVE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY STORM MODE...BUT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH FROM
AIR BEING LIFTED ABOVE ITS LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MORE SUNSHINE WE GET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE LIKELY
WE ARE TO SEE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE CLOUD COVER WE
HANG ON TO...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STORMS...THAT POSE MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THREAT THAN A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT.

IF WE MAINTAIN THE CLEARING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS HEADED INTO THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CHANCES OF SEEING A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE INCREASE QUITE A BIT. LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
HELP MORE OR LESS MAKE UP FOR THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE UPDRAFT SPEED TO THE POINT THAT SUPERCELLS DOMINATE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE. IF WE GET STORMS QUICKLY...OR SIMPLY CLOUD
UP HERE AGAIN BEFORE NOON...A MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR WITH WEAKER STORMS IN GENERAL.

IN EITHER CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NEAR RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING...FLOODING IS ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION INITIATES...ANY TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ENOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE VERY LIKELY... AND REALLY THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING IS THE EXPECTED SPEED OF STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH
TODAY...MAKING ANY ONE STORM UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEADED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AS
VARIOUS THREAT LEVELS INCREASE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS
ADVISABLE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING QUICKLY. WE WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM
FORECAST UPDATES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AS THESE CONDITIONS
EVOLVE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
THE WEAK QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG. THE BOUNDARY WILL HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE IN LULL FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL SHOW
VCTS FROM 14-17Z AS THAT IS WHEN LIFT FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS WILL REMAIN BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN GENERAL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE A COUPLE HOURS FASTER...SEEMINGLY TAKING THE
CONVECTION THAT IS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO NOW AND PUSHING
THAT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 21-01Z. LATER
UPDATES TO REFINE THUNDER TIMING AND THREAT ARE LIKELY.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BEHIND ANY STORMS...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241142
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
THE WEAK QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG. THE BOUNDARY WILL HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE IN LULL FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL SHOW
VCTS FROM 14-17Z AS THAT IS WHEN LIFT FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS WILL REMAIN BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN GENERAL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE A COUPLE HOURS FASTER...SEEMINGLY TAKING THE
CONVECTION THAT IS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO NOW AND PUSHING
THAT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 21-01Z. LATER
UPDATES TO REFINE THUNDER TIMING AND THREAT ARE LIKELY.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BEHIND ANY STORMS...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241142
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED
THE WEAK QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN
LIFR CIGS AND LIGHT FOG. THE BOUNDARY WILL HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.

TAF SITES APPEAR TO BE IN LULL FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL SHOW
VCTS FROM 14-17Z AS THAT IS WHEN LIFT FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS WILL REMAIN BOTH TO THE
NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN GENERAL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HRRR/RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE A COUPLE HOURS FASTER...SEEMINGLY TAKING THE
CONVECTION THAT IS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND SAN ANGELO NOW AND PUSHING
THAT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SHOW VCTS FROM 21-01Z. LATER
UPDATES TO REFINE THUNDER TIMING AND THREAT ARE LIKELY.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BEHIND ANY STORMS...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE PINEY WOODS OF EAST TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE NW /MID 50S/ TO LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST AS WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. THIS FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WARM
AS WELL...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH /A
LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPE/ AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW ZONES WHERE SW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
SHOULD HELP TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR OR OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE IT IS
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET OVERLY DETAILED...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND TUESDAY AND
THUS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.


THE REST OF THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT QUELLED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALED THAT LEE SIDE-TROUGHING CONTINUED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS COLORADO AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO FORT WORTH TO ATHENS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS...A FEW THINGS WILL HAPPEN TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS THAT BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. SECOND...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS N/C TX. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD FURTHER RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASE
ASCENT. BOTH OF THESE ARE ALREADY EVIDENT PER REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE MAIN AREAS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID-MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR ZONES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF VERY SMALL HAIL...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
APPEAR QUITE MOIST THIS AM.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...MORNING CONVECTION CAN
OFTEN SUPPRESS AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
OVERTURNING AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF STORM
COMPLEXES. IN SOME INSTANCES...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS THE ABILITY TO
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AND RECHARGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WITH
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES...WE WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY BROAD BRUSH POP FORECAST /50 PERCENT/ MAINLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S SHOULD STILL YIELD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS...THE ABILITY TO LIFT SURFACE
BASE PARCELS UP TO THEIR LFC WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-50 KNOTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP/ WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.


THE REST OF THE AFD WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.

15-BAIN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  64  87  62  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
WACO, TX              81  63  88  62  88 /  70  40   5   5  30
PARIS, TX             74  64  85  58  85 /  70  40   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            81  61  86  58  86 /  60  30   5   5  40
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  86  57  87 /  70  30   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            82  65  88  65  87 /  60  30   5   5  30
TERRELL, TX           78  63  86  61  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  65  88  64  86 /  70  40   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            81  63  88  65  86 /  70  40  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  58  88  58  88 /  60  10   5   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240459 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGED TO GET GOING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKENED PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER YOUNG COUNTY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS A SUPERCELL FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS
IT MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL JACK COUNTY BY 00Z.

RADAR AT 930 PM...CONTINUED TO SHOWER A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RETURN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF ABILENE TO GREENVILLE. MINERAL
WELLS DID REPORT 10SM -RA WHEN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OVER
THEM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  30  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240459 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
METROPLEX AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH. LOWER CIGS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED AT TEMPO FOR -TSRA FROM 10-13Z AT
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS
LATER IN THE DAY. AS STRONGER FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
EAST LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW...THIS APPEARS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR VERY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35...OR EAST OF THERE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKLY
AND END BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGED TO GET GOING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKENED PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER YOUNG COUNTY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS A SUPERCELL FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS
IT MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL JACK COUNTY BY 00Z.

RADAR AT 930 PM...CONTINUED TO SHOWER A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RETURN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF ABILENE TO GREENVILLE. MINERAL
WELLS DID REPORT 10SM -RA WHEN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OVER
THEM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  30  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240233
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGED TO GET GOING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKENED PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER YOUNG COUNTY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS A SUPERCELL FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS
IT MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL JACK COUNTY BY 00Z.

RADAR AT 930 PM...CONTINUED TO SHOWER A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RETURN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF ABILENE TO GREENVILLE. MINERAL
WELLS DID REPORT 10SM -RA WHEN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OVER
THEM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...WHICH ALL HAVE EAST WINDS RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MVFR AROUND 1700FT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE THINNED A BIT AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WILL
PREVAIL MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPACTS TO ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOME INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS ONGOING...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AND WILL REFINE
THE TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  30  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240233
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. A FEW STORMS THAT MANAGED TO GET GOING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WEAKENED PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER YOUNG COUNTY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS A SUPERCELL FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS
IT MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL JACK COUNTY BY 00Z.

RADAR AT 930 PM...CONTINUED TO SHOWER A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RETURN EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF ABILENE TO GREENVILLE. MINERAL
WELLS DID REPORT 10SM -RA WHEN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OVER
THEM. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...WHICH ALL HAVE EAST WINDS RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MVFR AROUND 1700FT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE THINNED A BIT AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WILL
PREVAIL MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPACTS TO ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOME INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS ONGOING...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AND WILL REFINE
THE TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  30  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 232309 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...WHICH ALL HAVE EAST WINDS RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MVFR AROUND 1700FT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE THINNED A BIT AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WILL
PREVAIL MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPACTS TO ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOME INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS ONGOING...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AND WILL REFINE
THE TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  40  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 232309 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE CEILING HEIGHT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...WHICH ALL HAVE EAST WINDS RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN MVFR AROUND 1700FT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE THINNED A BIT AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WILL
PREVAIL MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPACTS TO ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCSH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOME INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY SO
WILL KEEP THE VCTS ONGOING...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AND WILL REFINE
THE TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  40  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS THE DFW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN IF THE
IFR CIGS LIFT NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO SO
SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE DFW AREA AIRPORTS REMAINING STORM FREE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WEST...AND IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO THREATEN THE DFW
AREA...IT SHOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR A HEADS UP FOR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE DFW AREA...HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN GENERAL ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE KACT TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS LIFT OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF WATER VAPOR EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL...LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY AND MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS AT THAT TIME. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN STORMS TOMORROW...THE TIMING
OF THOSE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
EARLIER THAT STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE LESS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THE STORMS WILL POSE. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY MENTIONED
VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  40  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS
TO BRECKENRIDGE AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON
THE NORTH SIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS MORNINGS STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME AGITATED CU IS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON
SATELLITE.

OUR FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS PRIMARILY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
WHERE THE DRYLINE IS FINALLY MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS OF 3 PM. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FULL ARRAY OF STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AGAIN...STORM
COVERAGE TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE
ANY STORMS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EVENING CONVECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL
MAKE ANY STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY...SUNNY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY.

THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY LINE APPROACHES. STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE POSITION AND SPEED AND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS THE DFW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN IF THE
IFR CIGS LIFT NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO SO
SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE DFW AREA AIRPORTS REMAINING STORM FREE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WEST...AND IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO THREATEN THE DFW
AREA...IT SHOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR A HEADS UP FOR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE DFW AREA...HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN GENERAL ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE KACT TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS LIFT OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF WATER VAPOR EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL...LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY AND MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS AT THAT TIME. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN STORMS TOMORROW...THE TIMING
OF THOSE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
EARLIER THAT STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE LESS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THE STORMS WILL POSE. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY MENTIONED
VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  65  88  64 /  40  70  30   5   5
WACO, TX              70  81  61  88  64 /  40  70  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  76  64  86  58 /  40  70  40   5   5
DENTON, TX            66  82  61  88  59 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  61  88  57 /  40  70  30   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  83  66  89  66 /  40  70  30   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  82  63  87  62 /  40  70  40   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  82  66  88  65 /  40  70  50   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  82  63  87  65 /  40  60  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  84  59  90  58 /  40  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 231751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS THE DFW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN IF THE
IFR CIGS LIFT NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO SO
SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE DFW AREA AIRPORTS REMAINING STORM FREE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WEST...AND IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO THREATEN THE DFW
AREA...IT SHOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR A HEADS UP FOR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE DFW AREA...HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN GENERAL ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE KACT TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS LIFT OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF WATER VAPOR EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL...LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY AND MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS AT THAT TIME. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN STORMS TOMORROW...THE TIMING
OF THOSE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
EARLIER THAT STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE LESS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THE STORMS WILL POSE. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY MENTIONED
VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BETWEEN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS REGION HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY MIX AS
FAR EAST AS THE CONCHO VALLEY WHICH WOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AT ALL.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL BE FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON FRIDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE SINCE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
STEPHENVILLE...GLEN ROSE AND HICO/HAMILTON...A NON-SEVERE MCS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AVERAGING MAINLY UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL LINGER BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MCS WEAKENS WITH A VEERING AND WEAKENING
LLJ AND STABILIZING SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE MCS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR EASTERN CWA BY MID MORNING WITH A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST STABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE FASTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO DURING PEAK HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ABOVE LCLS WITH CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 3-3.5 KFT. THESE ARE
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 70F...SO A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCLS BY MID EVENING...SO A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE DRYLINE WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE E/SE
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FINAL ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20/30...AS STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE DISCRETE
IN NATURE AND HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO INGEST FOR SOME THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES.

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WANING IN WAKE OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS... THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. BY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RICHER SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 60S WILL SURGE BACK NW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BEFORE THESE FEATURES LIFT EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S LATER TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWNS
REGARDING ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WE/LL BE DECIPHERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES
MORE THIS WEEKEND...AS WE GET PASS THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  70  82  66  86 /  30  40  70  30   5
WACO, TX              83  71  83  64  89 /  40  40  70  50   5
PARIS, TX             71  63  75  63  83 /  20  40  70  40   5
DENTON, TX            76  69  82  62  85 /  20  40  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  80  61  84 /  20  40  70  30   5
DALLAS, TX            78  71  83  67  87 /  30  40  70  30   5
TERRELL, TX           78  70  81  64  85 /  30  40  70  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  82  66  87 /  30  40  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  83  64  89 /  40  40  60  50  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  67  85  59  87 /  30  40  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 231751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS THE DFW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE...EVEN IF THE
IFR CIGS LIFT NORTHEAST...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO SO
SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE DFW AREA AIRPORTS REMAINING STORM FREE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WEST...AND IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO THREATEN THE DFW
AREA...IT SHOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR A HEADS UP FOR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. WACO IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE DFW AREA...HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN GENERAL ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE KACT TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS LIFT OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF WATER VAPOR EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL...LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DFW AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY AND MOVE OVER AREA AIRPORTS AT THAT TIME. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN STORMS TOMORROW...THE TIMING
OF THOSE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
EARLIER THAT STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE LESS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THE STORMS WILL POSE. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY MENTIONED
VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL REFINE THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BETWEEN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS REGION HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY MIX AS
FAR EAST AS THE CONCHO VALLEY WHICH WOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AT ALL.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL BE FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON FRIDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE SINCE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
STEPHENVILLE...GLEN ROSE AND HICO/HAMILTON...A NON-SEVERE MCS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AVERAGING MAINLY UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL LINGER BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MCS WEAKENS WITH A VEERING AND WEAKENING
LLJ AND STABILIZING SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE MCS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR EASTERN CWA BY MID MORNING WITH A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST STABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE FASTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO DURING PEAK HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ABOVE LCLS WITH CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 3-3.5 KFT. THESE ARE
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 70F...SO A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCLS BY MID EVENING...SO A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE DRYLINE WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE E/SE
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FINAL ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20/30...AS STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE DISCRETE
IN NATURE AND HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO INGEST FOR SOME THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES.

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WANING IN WAKE OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS... THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. BY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RICHER SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 60S WILL SURGE BACK NW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BEFORE THESE FEATURES LIFT EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S LATER TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWNS
REGARDING ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WE/LL BE DECIPHERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES
MORE THIS WEEKEND...AS WE GET PASS THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  70  82  66  86 /  30  40  70  30   5
WACO, TX              83  71  83  64  89 /  40  40  70  50   5
PARIS, TX             71  63  75  63  83 /  20  40  70  40   5
DENTON, TX            76  69  82  62  85 /  20  40  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  80  61  84 /  20  40  70  30   5
DALLAS, TX            78  71  83  67  87 /  30  40  70  30   5
TERRELL, TX           78  70  81  64  85 /  30  40  70  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  82  66  87 /  30  40  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  83  64  89 /  40  40  60  50  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  67  85  59  87 /  30  40  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 231553
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BETWEEN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS REGION HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY MIX AS
FAR EAST AS THE CONCHO VALLEY WHICH WOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AT ALL.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL BE FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON FRIDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE SINCE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND THE
CESSATION OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND CONVECTION AT TERMINALS.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OLD THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE AND THUS
THE LOW CIGS. THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE METROPLEX/ WILL DICTATE HOW LONG A GIVEN SITE
EXPERIENCES MVFR/IFR CIGS. CURRENT IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE TX HIGH PLAINS. EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NOON AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE. IF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE STATIONARY THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS...A LONGER DURATION OF EAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...HIGH
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL OUTPUT
RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWER/STORM FORECAST. WHILE THIS
MORNING/S MCS HAS LIKELY STABILIZED MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. IF THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER THAN CURRENT THINKING...INCLUSION OF
VCTS OR TSRA WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF ON FRIDAY AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AS SOUTH LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW CONTINUES. VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND MIXING HELPS TO
LIFT THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO
BREAKUP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /AS IT
WAS NOT IMPACTED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/ AND THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

15-BAIN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
STEPHENVILLE...GLEN ROSE AND HICO/HAMILTON...A NON-SEVERE MCS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AVERAGING MAINLY UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL LINGER BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MCS WEAKENS WITH A VEERING AND WEAKENING
LLJ AND STABILIZING SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE MCS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR EASTERN CWA BY MID MORNING WITH A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST STABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE FASTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO DURING PEAK HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ABOVE LCLS WITH CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 3-3.5 KFT. THESE ARE
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 70F...SO A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCLS BY MID EVENING...SO A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE DRYLINE WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE E/SE
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FINAL ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20/30...AS STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE DISCRETE
IN NATURE AND HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO INGEST FOR SOME THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES.

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WANING IN WAKE OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS... THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. BY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RICHER SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 60S WILL SURGE BACK NW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BEFORE THESE FEATURES LIFT EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S LATER TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWNS
REGARDING ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WE/LL BE DECIPHERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES
MORE THIS WEEKEND...AS WE GET PASS THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  70  82  66  86 /  30  50  70  30   5
WACO, TX              83  71  83  64  89 /  40  40  70  40   5
PARIS, TX             69  63  75  63  83 /  50  50  70  30   5
DENTON, TX            76  69  82  62  85 /  20  50  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  80  61  84 /  30  50  70  30   5
DALLAS, TX            78  71  83  67  87 /  30  50  70  30   5
TERRELL, TX           78  70  81  64  85 /  40  50  70  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  82  66  87 /  40  50  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  83  64  89 /  40  40  60  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  67  85  59  87 /  30  50  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 231553
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IS BETWEEN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS REGION HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY MIX AS
FAR EAST AS THE CONCHO VALLEY WHICH WOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
DISCRETE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS THAT DO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
MANY AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AT ALL.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE
OVERALL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WE WILL BE FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON FRIDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE SINCE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND THE
CESSATION OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND CONVECTION AT TERMINALS.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OLD THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE AND THUS
THE LOW CIGS. THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE METROPLEX/ WILL DICTATE HOW LONG A GIVEN SITE
EXPERIENCES MVFR/IFR CIGS. CURRENT IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE TX HIGH PLAINS. EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NOON AND CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE. IF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE STATIONARY THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS...A LONGER DURATION OF EAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...HIGH
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL OUTPUT
RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWER/STORM FORECAST. WHILE THIS
MORNING/S MCS HAS LIKELY STABILIZED MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. IF THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER THAN CURRENT THINKING...INCLUSION OF
VCTS OR TSRA WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF ON FRIDAY AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AS SOUTH LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW CONTINUES. VFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND MIXING HELPS TO
LIFT THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO
BREAKUP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /AS IT
WAS NOT IMPACTED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/ AND THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

15-BAIN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
STEPHENVILLE...GLEN ROSE AND HICO/HAMILTON...A NON-SEVERE MCS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AVERAGING MAINLY UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL LINGER BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MCS WEAKENS WITH A VEERING AND WEAKENING
LLJ AND STABILIZING SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE MCS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR EASTERN CWA BY MID MORNING WITH A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST STABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE FASTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO DURING PEAK HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ABOVE LCLS WITH CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 3-3.5 KFT. THESE ARE
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 70F...SO A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCLS BY MID EVENING...SO A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE DRYLINE WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM ON THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE E/SE
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FINAL ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME LARGE HAIL
WILL BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20/30...AS STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE DISCRETE
IN NATURE AND HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO INGEST FOR SOME THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES.

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WANING IN WAKE OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS... THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE
REGION UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. BY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RICHER SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 60S WILL SURGE BACK NW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BEFORE THESE FEATURES LIFT EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S LATER TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWNS
REGARDING ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WE/LL BE DECIPHERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES
MORE THIS WEEKEND...AS WE GET PASS THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  70  82  66  86 /  30  50  70  30   5
WACO, TX              83  71  83  64  89 /  40  40  70  40   5
PARIS, TX             69  63  75  63  83 /  50  50  70  30   5
DENTON, TX            76  69  82  62  85 /  20  50  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  80  61  84 /  30  50  70  30   5
DALLAS, TX            78  71  83  67  87 /  30  50  70  30   5
TERRELL, TX           78  70  81  64  85 /  40  50  70  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  82  66  87 /  40  50  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  83  64  89 /  40  40  60  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  67  85  59  87 /  30  50  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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