Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KFWD 231151
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CLEARING LINE WAS ORIENTED FROM JUST EAST OF WACO TO DFW AS OF
530 AM. FTW...AFW...GKY AND ACT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT ACT THROUGH 13Z. DFW AND DAL WILL SEE TEMPORARY
VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z BEFORE CLEARING. HAVE OPTED TO
HANDLE THE IFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT DFW SINCE IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOST LIKELY BE GONE BY 1230Z. DAL SHOULD CLEAR
AROUND 13Z BASED ON LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLEARING LINE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE A STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. ONCE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY MIXES BY MIDDAY SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
WILL MIX DOWN AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 14 AND 18
KNOTS SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. CROSS WINDS ON
NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21 AND 23Z. FROPA WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST (AROUND 310 DEGREES) AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.
THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
SUNSET DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL
BELOW 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED AROUND 06Z.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>132-141.


&&

$$

79/91






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231151
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CLEARING LINE WAS ORIENTED FROM JUST EAST OF WACO TO DFW AS OF
530 AM. FTW...AFW...GKY AND ACT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT ACT THROUGH 13Z. DFW AND DAL WILL SEE TEMPORARY
VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z BEFORE CLEARING. HAVE OPTED TO
HANDLE THE IFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT DFW SINCE IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOST LIKELY BE GONE BY 1230Z. DAL SHOULD CLEAR
AROUND 13Z BASED ON LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLEARING LINE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE A STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. ONCE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY MIXES BY MIDDAY SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
WILL MIX DOWN AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 14 AND 18
KNOTS SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. CROSS WINDS ON
NORTH/SOUTH RUNWAYS SHOULD BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21 AND 23Z. FROPA WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST (AROUND 310 DEGREES) AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.
THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
SUNSET DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL
BELOW 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED AROUND 06Z.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>132-141.


&&

$$

79/91







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
PRIMARY CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS SUNDAY.

CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WHICH RAISES CONCERN
THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AT 9Z/3AM WITH A TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE MEANS THAT ANY CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

CROSSWINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WINDS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS TRANSFER TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT. THUS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
22Z/4PM AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 2Z/8PM. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALSO BE
FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FULL USE OF RUNWAYS 31R/L AND AT LEAST SOME USE OF THE N-S
RUNWAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 32G41KT AT 0Z. SINCE ALL OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THIS...HAVE INSTEAD FORECAST
24G34KT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 17KT DUE TO LESS
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MIXING. WIND DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE W/SW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW DISRUPTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>132-141.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230930
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM AND WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED A LEE SIDE CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR TODAYS WEATHER IN NORTH TEXAS
BECAUSE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE WESTERLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY WILL BE EXACTLY
HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...ANY DEEP MIXING COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...FORECASTING WINDS OF 30G40KT AT DFW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AT AREA AIRPORTS IF IT
PANS OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
ON WINDS...SO WILL TONE THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT. THINKING IS THAT
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND THERE
IS A GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF SHORT
DURATION AS A SURFACE INVERSION STARTS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. WE
WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
STARTING AT 2 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL 8 PM.

WITH WESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE RED RIVER.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...SO HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
IN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH IS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DRY WEEK AHEAD
AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL WARM UP RATHER NICELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ABOUT 700MB.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GFS MOS NUMBERS SHOW HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WONT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT WILL
SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
PRIMARY CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS SUNDAY.

CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WHICH RAISES CONCERN
THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AT 9Z/3AM WITH A TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE MEANS THAT ANY CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

CROSSWINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WINDS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS TRANSFER TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT. THUS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
22Z/4PM AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 2Z/8PM. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALSO BE
FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FULL USE OF RUNWAYS 31R/L AND AT LEAST SOME USE OF THE N-S
RUNWAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 32G41KT AT 0Z. SINCE ALL OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THIS...HAVE INSTEAD FORECAST
24G34KT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 17KT DUE TO LESS
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MIXING. WIND DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE W/SW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW DISRUPTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  43  64  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  40  59  34  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            75  38  61  35  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  38  61  34  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  41  63  39  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  41  62  35  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  42  64  37  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  41  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  37  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129>132-141.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS SUNDAY.

CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WHICH RAISES CONCERN
THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AT 9Z/3AM WITH A TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE MEANS THAT ANY CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

CROSSWINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WINDS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS TRANSFER TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT. THUS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
22Z/4PM AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 2Z/8PM. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALSO BE
FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FULL USE OF RUNWAYS 31R/L AND AT LEAST SOME USE OF THE N-S
RUNWAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 32G41KT AT 0Z. SINCE ALL OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THIS...HAVE INSTEAD FORECAST
24G34KT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 17KT DUE TO LESS
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MIXING. WIND DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE W/SW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW DISRUPTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE. THE CONVECTION OF GREATEST INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE REDUCED
POPS AND CHANGED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  20   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  40   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  20   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 /  30  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 /  40   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  50   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  10   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND STRONG CROSSWINDS SUNDAY.

CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WHICH RAISES CONCERN
THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT AND ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN AT 9Z/3AM WITH A TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE MEANS THAT ANY CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

CROSSWINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WINDS. THUS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME STEEP ENOUGH FOR THIS TRANSFER TO OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT. THUS THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
22Z/4PM AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 2Z/8PM. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALSO BE
FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FULL USE OF RUNWAYS 31R/L AND AT LEAST SOME USE OF THE N-S
RUNWAYS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE WINDS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 32G41KT AT 0Z. SINCE ALL OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN THIS...HAVE INSTEAD FORECAST
24G34KT...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...HAVE
LOWERED WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 17KT DUE TO LESS
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MIXING. WIND DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE W/SW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW DISRUPTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE. THE CONVECTION OF GREATEST INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE REDUCED
POPS AND CHANGED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  20   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  40   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  20   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 /  30  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 /  40   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  50   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  10   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230350 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE. THE CONVECTION OF GREATEST INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. ELSWHERE...HAVE REDUCED
POPS AND CHANGED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED.

25

&&

.GEOLOGY...
USGS CONFIRMS EARTHQUAKE OF MAGNITUDE 3.3 OCCURRED NEAR DALLAS
LOVE FIELD AT 915 PM CST. WE HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
SHAKING THROUGHOUT THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND AS FAR
AWAY AS DENISON (GRAYSON COUNTY). WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER
EMPLOYEE IN OUR BUILDING NOTICED COMPUTER MONITORS SHAKING.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 611 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY AT WACO WILL
CONTAIN MORE THUNDERSTORM CELLS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE VLIFR
VSBY/CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ENDS THERE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE CURRENTLY. SHORT-TERM HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH MAY COMPLETELY ERODE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...BUT GIVEN TRENDS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD OF VFR. CIGS OR
FOG MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NEVER A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG. WILL
SHOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z...BUT THIS IS A HEDGE AGAINST SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT WITH PERHAPS BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 2-4Z AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN COMPLEX. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS.

CONCERNING WESTERLY CROSSWINDS ON N-S RUNWAYS ON SUNDAY...THERE
IS NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY MORE TAME
WITH WINDS THAN THE GFS. WE ARE NOW IN RANGE OF THE RAP...AND
ITS FORECAST OF 850MB/925MB WINDS APPEARS TO BE ALIGNING MORE WITH
THE GFS. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TO GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BELIEVE THEY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THEIR STRONGEST SPEEDS UNTIL
20Z/2PM TO 00Z/6PM. THUS OUR STRONG WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
DELAYED THAN THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND A FEW KNOTS LOWER. RIGHT
NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR 29023G33KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT TRAFFIC
FLOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  40   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  70   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  40   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 /  50  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 /  70   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  70   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  30   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY AT WACO WILL
CONTAIN MORE THUNDERSTORM CELLS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE VLIFR
VSBY/CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ENDS THERE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE CURRENTLY. SHORT-TERM HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH MAY COMPLETELY ERODE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...BUT GIVEN TRENDS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD OF VFR. CIGS OR
FOG MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NEVER A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG. WILL
SHOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z...BUT THIS IS A HEDGE AGAINST SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT WITH PERHAPS BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 2-4Z AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN COMPLEX. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS.

CONCERNING WESTERLY CROSSWINDS ON N-S RUNWAYS ON SUNDAY...THERE
IS NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY MORE TAME
WITH WINDS THAN THE GFS. WE ARE NOW IN RANGE OF THE RAP...AND
ITS FORECAST OF 850MB/925MB WINDS APPEARS TO BE ALIGNING MORE WITH
THE GFS. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TO GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BELIEVE THEY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THEIR STRONGEST SPEEDS UNTIL
20Z/2PM TO 00Z/6PM. THUS OUR STRONG WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
DELAYED THAN THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND A FEW KNOTS LOWER. RIGHT
NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR 29023G33KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT TRAFFIC
FLOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  70  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  50   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /
















000
FXUS64 KFWD 230011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY AT WACO WILL
CONTAIN MORE THUNDERSTORM CELLS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE VLIFR
VSBY/CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ENDS THERE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE CURRENTLY. SHORT-TERM HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH MAY COMPLETELY ERODE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW...BUT GIVEN TRENDS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD OF VFR. CIGS OR
FOG MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NEVER A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG. WILL
SHOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z...BUT THIS IS A HEDGE AGAINST SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT WITH PERHAPS BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 2-4Z AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN COMPLEX. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS.

CONCERNING WESTERLY CROSSWINDS ON N-S RUNWAYS ON SUNDAY...THERE
IS NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM CONSIDERABLY MORE TAME
WITH WINDS THAN THE GFS. WE ARE NOW IN RANGE OF THE RAP...AND
ITS FORECAST OF 850MB/925MB WINDS APPEARS TO BE ALIGNING MORE WITH
THE GFS. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS ARE TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TO GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BELIEVE THEY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THEIR STRONGEST SPEEDS UNTIL
20Z/2PM TO 00Z/6PM. THUS OUR STRONG WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
DELAYED THAN THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND A FEW KNOTS LOWER. RIGHT
NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR 29023G33KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT TRAFFIC
FLOW...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR AMENDMENTS TO THIS THINKING.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  70  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  50   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /

















000
FXUS64 KFWD 222120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REGIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR. THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL IN LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THE TAFS TO BE ENCASED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-21Z. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE STORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...A LOW CIG AND FOG EVENT WILL
LIKELY TRANSPIRE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OVERNIGHT EVENT AND ANTICIPATE
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
TO VSBY OR CIGS ALONE OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW A COMBINATION OF BOTH RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR NEAR SUNSET.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  70  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  50   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 222120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. A STRONG UPPER JET MAXIMUM OVER
100 KTS REMAINED UPSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SPEED IT UP TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST
AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE COOL
AND DAMP CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE DAYBREAK...THOUGH
WEAK MUCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG DID EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...
INCREASING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT RULE A
LOW END RISK OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG WESTERLY
BULK SHEAR WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HAVE EXCEEDED 40+ KTS AT TIMES AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WITH
TIME WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY LEND TO
SOME PARTIAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND
AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...OUR HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...MOSTLY
LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS THAT CAN RISE QUICKLY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE FASTER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER JET WINDS UPWARDS OF 120 KTS SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND
MOVE IT ALONG. WE HELD ON TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
A RAPID WEST TO EAST END TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DAMPENS AND LIFTS RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND INITIAL
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE TIGHT WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO HELP BRING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE DID RAISE WIND
SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOW WARM HIGHS RISE ON SUNDAY IS
A CHALLENGE WITH THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE TRUE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BRISK AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGER SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REGIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR. THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL IN LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THE TAFS TO BE ENCASED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-21Z. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE STORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...A LOW CIG AND FOG EVENT WILL
LIKELY TRANSPIRE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OVERNIGHT EVENT AND ANTICIPATE
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
TO VSBY OR CIGS ALONE OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW A COMBINATION OF BOTH RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR NEAR SUNSET.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  70  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  50   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221834 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REGIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR. THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL IN LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THE TAFS TO BE ENCASED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-21Z. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE STORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...A LOW CIG AND FOG EVENT WILL
LIKELY TRANSPIRE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OVERNIGHT EVENT AND ANTICIPATE
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
TO VSBY OR CIGS ALONE OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW A COMBINATION OF BOTH RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR NEAR SUNSET.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ON IT/S
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS.

IT DOES APPEAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS STAY UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOES/NT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  60  10   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  30   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221834 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REGIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR. THE TAF AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL IN LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THE TAFS TO BE ENCASED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-21Z. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITHIN THE STORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...A LOW CIG AND FOG EVENT WILL
LIKELY TRANSPIRE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OVERNIGHT EVENT AND ANTICIPATE
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
TO VSBY OR CIGS ALONE OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW A COMBINATION OF BOTH RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR NEAR SUNSET.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ON IT/S
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS.

IT DOES APPEAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS STAY UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOES/NT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  43  63  38 /  80   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              55  76  42  64  36 /  80   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  70  41  59  36 / 100  10   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            53  72  39  62  36 /  60  10   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  71  39  62  36 /  90  10   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            58  74  43  62  39 /  80   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  73  41  62  37 / 100  10   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         57  75  42  64  37 / 100   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            55  77  42  64  37 /  80   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  36  62  35 /  30   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221753 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ON IT/S
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS.

IT DOES APPEAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS STAY UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE 6 MILES.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT IN TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
VCTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z AND PREVAILING THUNDER FROM 21Z
UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BUT SOME RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER
AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED.

ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOES/NT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  58  73  43  63 / 100  80   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  55  76  42  64 / 100  80   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  58  70  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  53  72  39  62 / 100  60  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  58  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  58  74  43  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  58  73  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  57  75  42  64 / 100 100   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  55  77  42  64 / 100  80   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  51  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221753 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH JUST
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ON IT/S
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SOME MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS.

IT DOES APPEAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE UPDATE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS STAY UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE 6 MILES.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT IN TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
VCTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z AND PREVAILING THUNDER FROM 21Z
UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BUT SOME RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER
AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED.

ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOES/NT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  58  73  43  63 / 100  80   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  55  76  42  64 / 100  80   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  58  70  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  53  72  39  62 / 100  60  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  58  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  58  74  43  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  58  73  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  57  75  42  64 / 100 100   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  55  77  42  64 / 100  80   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  51  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221158
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE 6 MILES.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT IN TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
VCTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z AND PREVAILING THUNDER FROM 21Z
UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BUT SOME RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER
AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED.

ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOESNT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAUGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  56  72  44  63 / 100  70   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  53  77  43  64 / 100  70   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  56  71  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  51  72  39  62 / 100  70  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  56  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  57  73  44  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  57  74  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  56  75  45  64 / 100  90  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  77  43  64 / 100  60   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  50  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221158
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE 6 MILES.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT IN TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
VCTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z AND PREVAILING THUNDER FROM 21Z
UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BUT SOME RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER
AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED.

ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOESNT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAUGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  56  72  44  63 / 100  70   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  53  77  43  64 / 100  70   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  56  71  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  51  72  39  62 / 100  70  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  56  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  57  73  44  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  57  74  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  56  75  45  64 / 100  90  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  77  43  64 / 100  60   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  50  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220912
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOESNT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAUGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE NOW JUST SOUTH OF WACO WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TAPERING OFF. WILL SHOW CIGS AT IFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY FOR THE METROPLEX...BUT FOR WACO THESE MAY
PREVAIL AT LOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 9Z OR SO. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY AS SHOWERS. THE TRUE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFW/FTW TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF VCTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS. LIGHT BR OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW PREVAILING TSRA
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH PREVAILING
STEADY RAIN AND VCTS UNTIL 3-4Z SUNDAY WHEN IT SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT ONCE
RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  56  72  44  63 / 100  70   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  53  77  43  64 / 100  70   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  56  71  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  51  72  39  62 / 100  70  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  56  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  57  73  44  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  57  74  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  56  75  45  64 / 100  90  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  77  43  64 / 100  60   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  50  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220552
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE NOW JUST SOUTH OF WACO WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TAPERING OFF. WILL SHOW CIGS AT IFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY FOR THE METROPLEX...BUT FOR WACO THESE MAY
PREVAIL AT LOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 9Z OR SO. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY AS SHOWERS. THE TRUE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFW/FTW TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF VCTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS. LIGHT BR OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW PREVAILING TSRA
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH PREVAILING
STEADY RAIN AND VCTS UNTIL 3-4Z SUNDAY WHEN IT SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT ONCE
RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES. PACKAGE SEEMS ON
TRACK OTHERWISE. POPS MAY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...A NUMBER OF AREA
MAY PICK UP A HUNDREDTH. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220552
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE NOW JUST SOUTH OF WACO WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TAPERING OFF. WILL SHOW CIGS AT IFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY FOR THE METROPLEX...BUT FOR WACO THESE MAY
PREVAIL AT LOW MVFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 9Z OR SO. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL STAY AS SHOWERS. THE TRUE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFW/FTW TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION OF VCTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS. LIGHT BR OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW PREVAILING TSRA
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH PREVAILING
STEADY RAIN AND VCTS UNTIL 3-4Z SUNDAY WHEN IT SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT ONCE
RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES. PACKAGE SEEMS ON
TRACK OTHERWISE. POPS MAY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...A NUMBER OF AREA
MAY PICK UP A HUNDREDTH. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220220
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
820 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES. PACKAGE SEEMS ON
TRACK OTHERWISE. POPS MAY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...A NUMBER OF AREA
MAY PICK UP A HUNDREDTH. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WITH SUNSET AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...CIGS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR 012 BY 2Z...AND TO IFR BY 3-4Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL REMAIN
MVFR OR BETTER.

A WAVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WILL SHOW JUST SHOWERS AND KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. LIGHT BR
OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...BUT GENERALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
SHOW PREVAILING TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FOR
DFW 30 HOUR TAF...WILL HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS UNTIL 4Z
WHEN IT SHOULD END. THAT VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN A LATER
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...IF THE CONFIDENCE ON A MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 5-10KT ONCE RAIN
ENDS SATURDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220220
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
820 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES. PACKAGE SEEMS ON
TRACK OTHERWISE. POPS MAY SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH THE LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...A NUMBER OF AREA
MAY PICK UP A HUNDREDTH. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WITH SUNSET AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...CIGS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR 012 BY 2Z...AND TO IFR BY 3-4Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL REMAIN
MVFR OR BETTER.

A WAVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WILL SHOW JUST SHOWERS AND KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. LIGHT BR
OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...BUT GENERALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
SHOW PREVAILING TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FOR
DFW 30 HOUR TAF...WILL HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS UNTIL 4Z
WHEN IT SHOULD END. THAT VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN A LATER
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...IF THE CONFIDENCE ON A MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 5-10KT ONCE RAIN
ENDS SATURDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WITH SUNSET AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...CIGS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR 012 BY 2Z...AND TO IFR BY 3-4Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL REMAIN
MVFR OR BETTER.

A WAVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WILL SHOW JUST SHOWERS AND KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. LIGHT BR
OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...BUT GENERALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
SHOW PREVAILING TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FOR
DFW 30 HOUR TAF...WILL HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS UNTIL 4Z
WHEN IT SHOULD END. THAT VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN A LATER
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...IF THE CONFIDENCE ON A MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 5-10KT ONCE RAIN
ENDS SATURDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /
















000
FXUS64 KFWD 220002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
WITH SUNSET AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...CIGS WILL LOWER TO
NEAR 012 BY 2Z...AND TO IFR BY 3-4Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL REMAIN
MVFR OR BETTER.

A WAVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
METROPLEX BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WILL SHOW JUST SHOWERS AND KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. LIGHT BR
OR DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...BUT GENERALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING VCTS INTO TAFS FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
SHOW PREVAILING TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FOR
DFW 30 HOUR TAF...WILL HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS UNTIL 4Z
WHEN IT SHOULD END. THAT VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN A LATER
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...IF THE CONFIDENCE ON A MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON TIMING OF STORMS CONTINUES TO GROW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 5-10KT ONCE RAIN
ENDS SATURDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON
N-S RUNWAYS. BASED ON 850MB WINDS AND RULE OF THUMB FOR SURFACE
WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20G30KT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
CROSSWIND EVENT IN OCTOBER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT
TRAFFIC VOLUME.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /

















000
FXUS64 KFWD 212057
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONTINUING LIFR-LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS UNFORTUNATELY LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SOME OF THE TRENDS MAKING THIS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGH-END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE BACK INTO LIFR CATEGORY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVOLUTION AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THINK KACT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL MENTION VCSH FROM
22/03-22/10Z AT KACT BUT THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THINK THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND CONTINUOUS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KACT`S BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS NEAR KACT COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212057
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHERE BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-35 TODAY...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BETTER INSTABILITY WAS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 850MB INCREASES TO OVER 40 KTS LATER THIS
EVENING...AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE AND
CORRESPOND WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA BY
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES SATURATING THROUGH 700MB AND ERODING THE CAPPING
INVERSION ENTIRELY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MORNING...SO
WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PERIODS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-100
KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM AND RICHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND
ONLY A THIN AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AXIS OF RICHER SURFACE DEW
PTS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES. WE CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVE ACROSS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAT MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
PROLONGED EVENT VERSUS AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT GOING TO
ADVERTISE ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RED RIVER AS MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT WE DO
EXPECT ARE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
GRADUALLY EAST OF THE AREA. SUCCESSIVE REINFORCING CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING...
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONTINUING LIFR-LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS UNFORTUNATELY LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SOME OF THE TRENDS MAKING THIS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGH-END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE BACK INTO LIFR CATEGORY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVOLUTION AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THINK KACT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL MENTION VCSH FROM
22/03-22/10Z AT KACT BUT THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THINK THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND CONTINUOUS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KACT`S BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS NEAR KACT COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  65  54  72  44 /  60 100  80   5  10
WACO, TX              63  68  52  75  44 /  40 100  90   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  65  55  69  42 /  60 100 100  10  10
DENTON, TX            60  64  48  71  41 /  70 100  70  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  63  49  70  41 /  60 100  90  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  66  55  72  45 /  50 100  90   5  10
TERRELL, TX           60  66  52  72  43 /  40 100 100  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  69  55  74  45 /  30 100 100   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  69  52  76  43 /  40 100  90   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  66  46  71  40 /  70 100  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211744 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONTINUING LIFR-LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS UNFORTUNATELY LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SOME OF THE TRENDS MAKING THIS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGH-END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE BACK INTO LIFR CATEGORY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVOLUTION AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THINK KACT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL MENTION VCSH FROM
22/03-22/10Z AT KACT BUT THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THINK THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND CONTINUOUS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KACT`S BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS NEAR KACT COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              71  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            69  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           68  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            71  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211744 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONTINUING LIFR-LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS UNFORTUNATELY LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SOME OF THE TRENDS MAKING THIS A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGH-END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE BACK INTO LIFR CATEGORY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVOLUTION AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THINK KACT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SHOWERS AS THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL MENTION VCSH FROM
22/03-22/10Z AT KACT BUT THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SMALLER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION AFTER 10Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THINK THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND CONTINUOUS AT THE DFW AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KACT`S BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS NEAR KACT COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              71  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            69  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           68  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            71  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211710
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05











000
FXUS64 KFWD 211710
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05












000
FXUS64 KFWD 211709 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05










000
FXUS64 KFWD 211709 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE...FORT WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
STORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER
FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05









000
FXUS64 KFWD 211707
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...FORT
WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED THREAT FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF STORMS
ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB
LAYER FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211707
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE READILY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/CA MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
UPPER FEATURES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS ALREADY NOTED BY SOME DISSIPATION OF MORNING CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIKELY PULL THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME BREAKS OF THE
CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 70S AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...FORT
WORTH... GAINESVILLE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED THREAT FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF STORMS
ACROSS THE RISK AREA TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CORRELATES WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 925MB-850MB
LAYER FOR AN INCREASING HAIL THREAT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  40  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             64  54  65  55  69 /  40  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  20  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  58  66  51  70 /  20  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            69  59  67  56  72 /  20  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  40  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  50  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  61  69  52  75 /  40  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  10  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211322 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  30  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  50  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             65  54  65  55  69 /  50  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  30  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  66  51  70 /  40  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            70  59  67  56  72 /  40  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  50  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  60  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  69  52  75 /  50  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211322 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
BUT CAN EXPECT POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  30  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  50  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             65  54  65  55  69 /  50  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  30  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  66  51  70 /  40  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            70  59  67  56  72 /  40  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  50  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  60  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  69  52  75 /  50  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211212
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  30  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  50  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             65  54  65  55  69 /  50  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  30  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  66  51  70 /  40  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            70  59  67  56  72 /  40  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  50  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  60  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  69  52  75 /  50  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211212
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS (1) IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
(2)INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND KEEP A CONTINUOUS FEED OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MVFR AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ONCE THE SUN SETS...CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT WACO. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT 10Z AND NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING THUNDER UNTIL
AROUND 16Z SATURDAY IN THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  30  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  50  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             65  54  65  55  69 /  50  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  30  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  66  51  70 /  40  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            70  59  67  56  72 /  40  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  50  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  60  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  69  52  75 /  50  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210959
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS NOW
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL ARRIVE IN TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH ONGOING SHOWERS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NEAR
VICTORIA THROUGH BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND INTO THE PALESTINE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LATER TODAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL LEAVE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SETS UP A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TEXAS ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY SINCE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD BE A
SHIFT WESTWARD IN PRECIPITATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE 100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...YIELDING MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REVOLVES AROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY...WITH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE SUGGESTING A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF WARMING OR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SURFACE INSTABILITY IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. IF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
APPROACH 1.5 BY SATURDAY WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE NICE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONAL.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
...IFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...

STRATUS HAS SURGED NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING COMMON AT ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND IFR
CIGS RECENTLY ARRIVING AT KACT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP NEAR KACT AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE METROPLEX AROUND THE
TIME THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND IFR CIGS ARRIVE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
SIMULTANEOUSLY MIXING OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
RESIDE.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME /AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ AS STRONG ASCENT PRECEDES THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. AFTER A LOOK AT THE LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...WITH THE LATEST DATA POINTING AT STORMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 22/12Z. CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AROUND 18Z OR A LITTLE LATER SATURDAY AS
WE DESTABILIZE AND THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  60  67  54  72 /  30  70 100  70   5
WACO, TX              72  61  69  52  74 /  50  60 100  60   0
PARIS, TX             65  54  65  55  69 /  50  70  90 100  10
DENTON, TX            70  59  66  51  70 /  30  80 100  70  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  58  66  51  70 /  40  70 100  90  10
DALLAS, TX            70  59  67  56  72 /  40  70 100  70   5
TERRELL, TX           69  58  68  54  72 /  50  60 100  90  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  58  69  55  74 /  60  40 100  80   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  61  69  52  75 /  50  50 100  50   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  59  67  49  71 /  20  80 100  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210530
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...IFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...

STRATUS HAS SURGED NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING COMMON AT ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND IFR
CIGS RECENTLY ARRIVING AT KACT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP NEAR KACT AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE METROPLEX AROUND THE
TIME THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND IFR CIGS ARRIVE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
SIMULTANEOUSLY MIXING OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
RESIDE.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME /AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ AS STRONG ASCENT PRECEDES THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. AFTER A LOOK AT THE LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...WITH THE LATEST DATA POINTING AT STORMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 22/12Z. CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AROUND 18Z OR A LITTLE LATER SATURDAY AS
WE DESTABILIZE AND THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CRASHED THROUGH FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE. WILL LOWER TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ORGANIZES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF ADVECTION FOG IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE BELOW
55...BUT WILL WATCH FOR THIS BEFORE ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...18Z NAM FORECASTS HAVE AN UNREASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHICH IS
RESULTING IN THE MODEL GENERATING TOO MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THIS MODEL...AND GIVEN
THE MORE REALISTIC AND TAMER FORECASTS FROM THE RUC/GFS WILL LOWER
POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 IN THIS AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...AND CURRENTLY NO MODEL SHOWS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
UNTIL AFTER THE 850MB FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT...SO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE SEVERE RISK. OF COURSE IF DEWPOINTS ARE JUST 2-3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THESE LOW-CAPE AND
HIGH-SHEAR EVENTS ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO LOW LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES...AND THEREFORE CAN BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAN OUR
MORE TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES. IN THAT RESPECT WE WILL JUST
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE OBS AND MODELS
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

TR.92


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  20  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              59  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             51  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            56  70  61  66  53 /  20  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            58  70  61  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           57  69  59  69  56 /  30  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            59  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  70  61  68  50 /   5  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210530
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...IFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...

STRATUS HAS SURGED NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING COMMON AT ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND IFR
CIGS RECENTLY ARRIVING AT KACT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT ALL LOCATIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP NEAR KACT AND
WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE METROPLEX AROUND THE
TIME THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND IFR CIGS ARRIVE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
SIMULTANEOUSLY MIXING OUT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
RESIDE.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME /AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ AS STRONG ASCENT PRECEDES THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. AFTER A LOOK AT THE LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF...WITH THE LATEST DATA POINTING AT STORMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 22/12Z. CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AROUND 18Z OR A LITTLE LATER SATURDAY AS
WE DESTABILIZE AND THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVERHEAD.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CRASHED THROUGH FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE. WILL LOWER TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ORGANIZES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF ADVECTION FOG IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE BELOW
55...BUT WILL WATCH FOR THIS BEFORE ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...18Z NAM FORECASTS HAVE AN UNREASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHICH IS
RESULTING IN THE MODEL GENERATING TOO MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THIS MODEL...AND GIVEN
THE MORE REALISTIC AND TAMER FORECASTS FROM THE RUC/GFS WILL LOWER
POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 IN THIS AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...AND CURRENTLY NO MODEL SHOWS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
UNTIL AFTER THE 850MB FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT...SO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE SEVERE RISK. OF COURSE IF DEWPOINTS ARE JUST 2-3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THESE LOW-CAPE AND
HIGH-SHEAR EVENTS ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO LOW LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES...AND THEREFORE CAN BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAN OUR
MORE TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES. IN THAT RESPECT WE WILL JUST
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE OBS AND MODELS
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

TR.92


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  20  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              59  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             51  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            56  70  61  66  53 /  20  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            58  70  61  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           57  69  59  69  56 /  30  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            59  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  70  61  68  50 /   5  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210135
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CRASHED THROUGH FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW
SPOTS THERE. WILL LOWER TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ORGANIZES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF ADVECTION FOG IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE BELOW
55...BUT WILL WATCH FOR THIS BEFORE ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...18Z NAM FORECASTS HAVE AN UNREASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHICH IS
RESULTING IN THE MODEL GENERATING TOO MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THIS MODEL...AND GIVEN
THE MORE REALISTIC AND TAMER FORECASTS FROM THE RUC/GFS WILL LOWER
POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED STORMS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 IN THIS AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...AND CURRENTLY NO MODEL SHOWS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
UNTIL AFTER THE 850MB FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT...SO INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE SEVERE RISK. OF COURSE IF DEWPOINTS ARE JUST 2-3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THESE LOW-CAPE AND
HIGH-SHEAR EVENTS ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO LOW LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES...AND THEREFORE CAN BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAN OUR
MORE TYPICAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES. IN THAT RESPECT WE WILL JUST
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE OBS AND MODELS
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA...

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN SWING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WHERE 60+ DEWPOINTS EXIST OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES /SOUTHEAST OF TAF LOCATIONS/. WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED AT THE LOW
LEVELS...PERHAPS REACTING TO A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKEWISE
SPREADING MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH. WE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF LOW CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...THINKING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE
RISE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
STARTING AT OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BY
DAYBREAK. CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SPREADS OVERHEAD. WE WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT NEED TO
INTRODUCE FOR THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD IN LATER
FORECASTS.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  71  61  68  55 /  20  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              59  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             50  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            53  70  61  66  53 /  20  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          55  68  60  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            58  70  61  67  55 /  20  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           57  69  59  69  56 /  30  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  70  61  68  50 /   5  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 202356
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA...

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN SWING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WHERE 60+ DEWPOINTS EXIST OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES /SOUTHEAST OF TAF LOCATIONS/. WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED AT THE LOW
LEVELS...PERHAPS REACTING TO A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKEWISE
SPREADING MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH. WE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF LOW CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...THINKING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE
RISE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
STARTING AT OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BY
DAYBREAK. CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SPREADS OVERHEAD. WE WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT NEED TO
INTRODUCE FOR THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD IN LATER
FORECASTS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  30  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              60  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             52  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            57  70  61  66  53 /  30  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            59  70  61  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           58  69  59  69  56 /  40  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  70  61  68  50 /  20  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92







000
FXUS64 KFWD 202356
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA...

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN SWING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WHERE 60+ DEWPOINTS EXIST OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES /SOUTHEAST OF TAF LOCATIONS/. WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED AT THE LOW
LEVELS...PERHAPS REACTING TO A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE LIKEWISE
SPREADING MORE NORTHEAST THAN NORTH. WE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE
BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF LOW CIGS IN THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...THINKING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE ON THE
RISE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
STARTING AT OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS BY
DAYBREAK. CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SPREADS OVERHEAD. WE WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING TS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT NEED TO
INTRODUCE FOR THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD IN LATER
FORECASTS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  30  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              60  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             52  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            57  70  61  66  53 /  30  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            59  70  61  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           58  69  59  69  56 /  40  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  70  61  68  50 /  20  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92






000
FXUS64 KFWD 202151 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...AS
THE ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT ON OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUNOFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT THE DFW TAF SITES AND LIFR
CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT KACT BY MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND 21/12Z IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS AND KEEP THE TAF DRY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION. IFR AND LIFR CIGS MAY LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  30  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              60  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             52  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            57  70  61  66  53 /  30  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            59  70  61  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           58  69  59  69  56 /  40  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  70  61  68  50 /  20  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 202134
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...THE
ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUN OFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT THE DFW TAF SITES AND LIFR
CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT KACT BY MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND 21/12Z IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS AND KEEP THE TAF DRY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION. IFR AND LIFR CIGS MAY LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  30  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              60  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             52  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            57  70  61  66  53 /  30  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            59  70  61  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           58  69  59  69  56 /  40  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  70  61  68  50 /  20  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 202134
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

20Z/2PM SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THE RED RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA) TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN OVER A WEEK. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS STARTED THE
DAY OFF IN THE LOW 40S...WHICH INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AT 20Z. LOW 60S DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...ADVECTING NORTH TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA MOVING EAST...AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...REGIONAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FROM WACO TO
TEMPLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AS OF 3 PM CDT. THIS WAS WELL CORRELATED
WITH A 850 MB JET OF 25 TO 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF 50S DEW POINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THIS ELEVATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED
A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER OUT
AHEAD OF THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO ADVECT EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECT
LOWS TO HOLD UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE ARIZONA SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...CALIFORNIA UPPER
TROUGH. IN GENERAL...SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND IF WE WERE ONLY DEALING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING...A DRY FORECAST WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTED ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH ARE BOTH CATALYSTS FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO...THE
ARIZONA UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE REALLY MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES
NOT EQUATE TO LIFT...BUT IT WILL NOT WORK AS STRONGLY AGAINST THE
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ALL DAY
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
EVENTUALLY WINS OUT...AND BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(AROUND 60 PERCENT) FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY LOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE NAM DOES INDICATE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEPHENVILLE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
40 KTS. FROM A PARAMETER STAND POINT ALONE...THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
STRONG CAVEATS THAT LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.

THE FIRST LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THERE ARE NO STORMS...THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SO THAT REPRESENTS A FAIRLY BIG LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
TIME. THE SECOND LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE NAM SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM IS SIMPLY OVER-DOING THE
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...AND OVERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO...WHILE IT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...IF THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE WILL NEED SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY BE HARD
TO COME BY...AND DEW POINTS WILL NEED TO SURGE UP TO AROUND 65
DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AT THIS TIME 65 DEGREE DEW POINTS
ONLY EXIST AROUND CORPUS CRISTI...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY...WHILE WATCHING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS
THINKING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...CAUSING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP FROM OKLAHOMA CITY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS ABILENE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS TO MATERIALIZE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
ALSO LOOKS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE STRONGEST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE WEST
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT TO THE EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT
MOVES BY. SATURDAY STILL REPRESENTS THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND AT LEAST BE NEUTRALLY TILTED...POSSIBLY BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TILT OF A TROUGH RELATES TO HOW
ITS BASE IS ORIENTED WITH RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST...AND ITS BASE IS ORIENTED DUE
SOUTH...THIS IS NEUTRALLY TILTED. IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TILTS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS CASE...IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE REASON A TROUGH`S TILT IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TYPICALLY CONTAINS COLD AIR IN ITS BASE. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS COLD AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM.

ON SATURDAY...TO ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONE OF THE
THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IS THE UPPER TROUGH`S TILT. IF IT
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF IT REMAINS NEUTRALLY
TILTED...THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
SOUTH...EITHER IN CENTRAL TEXAS OR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. ASIDE FROM THE TILT...WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO ASSESS THE
STRENGTH AND QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (SPRING TIME SEVERE
WEATHER STRENGTH) WHICH CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUMP UP THE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE HEATING. EVERY MODEL SHOWS
THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY...SO SIGNIFICANT
HEATING JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A
RESULT...OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY IS ALSO
CONDITIONAL...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN IS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONITOR THE TILT OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY TO TRULY ASSESS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOCALLY.

NO MATTER WHAT...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS IS A
GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS "LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR". THERE IS A COMPOSITE
PARAMETER THAT WAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY CALLED THE SHERB THAT
ASSESSES THIS TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS PARAMETER`S
IDEAL VALUE...WHICH IS ANYTHING CLOSE TO 1.0...OCCURS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO NO MATTER
WHAT...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TORNADOES AND HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINGENT OTHER FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE COMING
TOGETHER.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF RECENT HARD FREEZES...MOST AREA VEGETATION IS
DORMANT. THIS WILL INCREASE RUNOFF...HOWEVER...AREA
LAKES..RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THERE IS AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY FOR RUN OFF. THE WEST GULF RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RAN A CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 4 INCHES
OF RAIN AND NOTED NO HIGH END RIVER FLOODING IN THEIR MODELS.
WIDESPREAD 4 INCH RAINFALL IS WELL BEYOND ANYTHING IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WAS DONE SIMPLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMMENSE CAPACITY
FOR RUNOFF THAT CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN TAKE. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ANY URBAN AREA MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED...SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY...STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS MAY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODEL
SURFACE WINDS ARE ONLY ADVERTISING 15-25 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER MODEL
850 MB WINDS (AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) ARE BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IF ANY OF THIS STRONG WIND ALOFT
MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AND
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND IMPACTS COULD OCCUR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS. AT
THIS TIME THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY`S BIG UPPER TROUGH. A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...MAKING FOR MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT THE DFW TAF SITES AND LIFR
CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT KACT BY MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND 21/12Z IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS AND KEEP THE TAF DRY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION. IFR AND LIFR CIGS MAY LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  71  61  68  55 /  30  40  50 100  60
WACO, TX              60  72  62  70  53 /  30  60  50 100  40
PARIS, TX             52  65  57  66  57 /  40  60  70  90 100
DENTON, TX            57  70  61  66  53 /  30  40  70 100  60
MCKINNEY, TX          57  68  60  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
DALLAS, TX            59  70  61  67  55 /  30  50  50 100  70
TERRELL, TX           58  69  59  69  56 /  40  60  50 100  80
CORSICANA, TX         59  71  60  70  56 /  40  60  40 100  70
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  63  71  53 /  30  60  50 100  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  70  61  68  50 /  20  30  80 100  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201733 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT THE DFW TAF SITES AND LIFR
CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT KACT BY MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND 21/12Z IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS AND KEEP THE TAF DRY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION. IFR AND LIFR CIGS MAY LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
CANTON LINE FOR TODAY. BESIDES THE LOW CLOUDS....SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY /AS OF 3 AM/ SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BUT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY MORNING...30S AREA WIDE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...AND THEN MOSTLY 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. NORMAL
LOWS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND NORMAL HIGHS
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  57  71  60  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
WACO, TX              68  58  72  61  68 /  20  30  40  40 100
PARIS, TX             65  53  65  55  63 /  10  40  50  60  80
DENTON, TX            67  55  70  59  65 /   5  20  30  70 100
MCKINNEY, TX          67  55  68  58  64 /   5  30  40  60 100
DALLAS, TX            69  58  70  59  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
TERRELL, TX           67  57  69  58  66 /  10  40  50  50 100
CORSICANA, TX         69  58  71  59  67 /  20  40  50  40 100
TEMPLE, TX            68  59  73  61  69 /  20  30  40  40 100
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  54  70  59  66 /   5  10  20  70 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/69






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201733 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS. BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT THE DFW TAF SITES AND LIFR
CIGS AND MVFR VISBY AT KACT BY MIDNIGHT /05-06Z/. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORTS. WILL KEEP A VCSH MENTION OVERNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEYOND 21/12Z IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS AND KEEP THE TAF DRY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION. IFR AND LIFR CIGS MAY LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/
EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO
CANTON LINE FOR TODAY. BESIDES THE LOW CLOUDS....SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY /AS OF 3 AM/ SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BUT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY
SUNDAY...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY MORNING...30S AREA WIDE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...AND THEN MOSTLY 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. NORMAL
LOWS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AND NORMAL HIGHS
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  57  71  60  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
WACO, TX              68  58  72  61  68 /  20  30  40  40 100
PARIS, TX             65  53  65  55  63 /  10  40  50  60  80
DENTON, TX            67  55  70  59  65 /   5  20  30  70 100
MCKINNEY, TX          67  55  68  58  64 /   5  30  40  60 100
DALLAS, TX            69  58  70  59  66 /   5  30  40  60 100
TERRELL, TX           67  57  69  58  66 /  10  40  50  50 100
CORSICANA, TX         69  58  71  59  67 /  20  40  50  40 100
TEMPLE, TX            68  59  73  61  69 /  20  30  40  40 100
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  54  70  59  66 /   5  10  20  70 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/69







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities