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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AND S/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TAF
SITES. FOR THE METROPLEX...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 8-13Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THIS
TIME WINDOW. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NW NEAR 10KT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR WACO...SOUTH WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-
LATE MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH IT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO
NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FORTHCOMING
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE RAINY AREAS AND THE SUNNY SPOTS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE RISE ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...
BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY...WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
UNLIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS NO LONGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND REALIZE THE INSTABILITY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  68  78  66  83 /  70  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            82  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  71  82  66  85 /  50  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AND S/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TAF
SITES. FOR THE METROPLEX...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 8-13Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THIS
TIME WINDOW. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NW NEAR 10KT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR WACO...SOUTH WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-
LATE MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH IT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO
NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FORTHCOMING
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE RAINY AREAS AND THE SUNNY SPOTS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE RISE ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...
BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY...WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
UNLIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS NO LONGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND REALIZE THE INSTABILITY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  68  78  66  83 /  70  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            82  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  71  82  66  85 /  50  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 301740 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO
NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FORTHCOMING
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE RAINY AREAS AND THE SUNNY SPOTS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE RISE ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...
BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY...WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
UNLIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS NO LONGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND REALIZE THE INSTABILITY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED QPF FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONTINUED MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

AJS



&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  68  78  66  83 /  70  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            82  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  71  82  66  85 /  50  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 301740 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO
NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FORTHCOMING
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE RAINY AREAS AND THE SUNNY SPOTS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE RISE ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...
BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY...WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
UNLIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS NO LONGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND REALIZE THE INSTABILITY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED QPF FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONTINUED MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

AJS



&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  68  78  66  83 /  70  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            82  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  71  82  66  85 /  50  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301226
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED QPF FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONTINUED MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

AJS



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  40  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  50  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  40  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  40  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  40  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  30  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  20  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  40  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301226
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY...UPDATED QPF FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONTINUED MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.

AJS



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  40  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  50  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  40  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  40  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  40  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  30  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  20  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  40  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 301159
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  40  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  20  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  30  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 301159
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING DIRECTLY AT DFW AIRPORT AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. DESPITE THE BUSY RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEADED OVER THE METROPLEX...THERE HAVE BEEN NO CLOUD TO
GROUND OR IN CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND STARTED OFF ALL
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS WITH VCSH AS OPPOSED TO VCTS AS THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY.

LEFT VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE THE LIFT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND PERSISTENT LIFT
EXPECTED...COULD NOT FIND A GOOD WINDOW TO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME THOSE RIGHT NOW.

WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVING OVER THE DFW AREA. ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR LEAVES SOME CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE
COULD HEAT UP RAPIDLY...BREAK THE CAP AND GET ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR DFW AREA AIRPORTS. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT THIS TIME AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THICK OVER THE AREA.

BY TONIGHT THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE DFW AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER WAS TOO LOW TO BRING INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AROUND SUNRISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DFW
AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT GREAT...MODELS HAVE
IT MOVING THROUGH ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 16Z...SO JUST LEFT VCTS AT
THE END OF THE DFW TAF AFTER 12Z AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST
THIS TIMING AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  40  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  20  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  30  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300909
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL
31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  40  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  20  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  30  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300909
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL
31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             87  68  78  66  83 /  40  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  71  83  67  87 /  20  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          87  71  82  66  85 /  30  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            87  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           89  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300447 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL
31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300447 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS TRY TO KEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX...THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO TRY TO MOVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE METROPLEX. WILL BE KEEPING VCSH ACROSS THE METROPLEX
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS UNTIL
31/02Z. WILL KEEP KACT DRY...BUT ISOLATED VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 9-14 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300349 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 850-700 MB ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY
STEEP...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A
BRECKENRIDGE...DECATUR...SHERMAN LINE OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBS
ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...BUT EARLIER RAINFALL DID MOISTEN
LOW LEVELS BELOW 700MB EARLIER TODAY. EVEN SO...HAVE ONLY RAISED
TO 30-40% WITH MAINLY SHOWER WORDING WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DID SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS A CISCO...TO
DFW...TO BONHAM LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  20  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300205 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05









000
FXUS64 KFWD 300205 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR ABILENE. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME DEVIANT
MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING POPS IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM WITH THIS IN
MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK UPON US AND
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05










000
FXUS64 KFWD 300108 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER BETWEEN NEAR AMARILLO. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME
DEVIANT MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING
POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM
WITH THIS IN MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK
UPON US AND ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300108 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A 925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED FROM NEAR
AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST TOWARD LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO THIS
EVENING PER THE NAM12 AND RUC MODELS. ONE NON-SEVERE STORM CLUSTER
CONTINUE TO LINGER BETWEEN NEAR AMARILLO. STORMS WERE SHOWING SOME
DEVIANT MOTIONS...BUT WERE MAINLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID THETA-E RIDGE. HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING
POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO GRAHAM
WITH THIS IN MIND AND REMOVED THEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUSK
UPON US AND ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUICKLY.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN
ABILENE AND CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT
CURRENT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OR AFTER 3-4 AM. SOME SPORADIC WEAK ACTIVITY COULD GET
INTO THOSE AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT NOTHING MAJOR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...OR WINDS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  10  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 292327 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 292327 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE NM TO SOUTH OF KAUS AND THEN TO
NEAR KBYY /BAY CITY/ ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX ON
THURSDAY. MORE UPSTREAM /TX-OK PANHANDLE/ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AS ELEVATED SHRA MID WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
AS VCTS OR ISOLATED TSRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
9-14 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS
EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUSTIFIES AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 292052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS NEAR FL100 THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR FL200 OVERNIGHT. CIGS NEAR FL100 MAY RETURN BY
WED MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NOW GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES. WHILE RADAR IS
ACTIVE...A LOT OF EVAPORATION IS TAKING PLACE BELOW THE CLOUD BASE
AND RAIN ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
AFW/FTW/GKY TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WED MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH...BUT THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BUILD CLOSER TO
TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS IN EXTENDED DFW TAF NOW.

FOR WACO...ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL STAY
WEST OF WACO...THEREFORE WILL SHOW ONLY VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

TR.92



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 292052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL LAYER REMAINS INTACT ABOVE NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGAN ABOVE THIS FRONTAL SLOPE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
ACTIVITY EXPANDED ALONG AN AXIS OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...DOWN
THE I-45 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT...RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS CORRIDOR REACHED THE UPPER 80S...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SUNSET.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
WHERE SUNSHINE WAS PLENTIFUL MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INITIATED
BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS...THEIR MAINTENANCE IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
SURFACE HEATING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE GONE BY MID-
EVENING.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...THE WESTERLIES
ARE NOW IMPINGING ON NORTH TEXAS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER COLORADO WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. AS THE TERRAIN FALLS
BENEATH IT...ONGOING LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL MEAN
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE NOW SPIRALING OVER UTAH IS PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. THE
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AS ITS REMNANT ENERGY
FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK AS THE WEDNESDAY IMPULSE. THIS TOO SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW THE NEW FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO SURGE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES A CHANCE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE THE UNSEASONAL RAINY
PERIOD COMES TO AN END.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MEAN A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. THE MILD AIR
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GULF FINALLY REOPENS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS NEAR FL100 THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR FL200 OVERNIGHT. CIGS NEAR FL100 MAY RETURN BY
WED MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NOW GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES. WHILE RADAR IS
ACTIVE...A LOT OF EVAPORATION IS TAKING PLACE BELOW THE CLOUD BASE
AND RAIN ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
AFW/FTW/GKY TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WED MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH...BUT THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BUILD CLOSER TO
TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS IN EXTENDED DFW TAF NOW.

FOR WACO...ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL STAY
WEST OF WACO...THEREFORE WILL SHOW ONLY VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

TR.92



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  73  85  70 /  10  20  40  30  10
WACO, TX              74  97  74  89  70 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             69  81  68  78  66 /  10  40  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            73  89  71  83  67 /  10  20  50  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  71  82  66 /  10  30  70  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  92  74  85  71 /  10  20  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           72  89  72  83  68 /  10  20  50  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  73  87  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  97  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  97  69  84  67 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 291718
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS NEAR FL100 THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR FL200 OVERNIGHT. CIGS NEAR FL100 MAY RETURN BY
WED MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NOW GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES. WHILE RADAR IS
ACTIVE...A LOT OF EVAPORATION IS TAKING PLACE BELOW THE CLOUD BASE
AND RAIN ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
AFW/FTW/GKY TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WED MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH...BUT THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BUILD CLOSER TO
TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS IN EXTENDED DFW TAF NOW.

FOR WACO...ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL STAY
WEST OF WACO...THEREFORE WILL SHOW ONLY VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE FRONT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE CWA AND NOW STRETCHES
FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SHALLOW
SUMMER COLD FRONTS...THE 850MB BOUNDARY HAS LAGGED FAR BEHIND. IT
CURRENTLY ARCS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LIFT ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT...TO THE EAST OF THE 850MB FRONT...RESULTED IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS DEEPER
INTO THE DRY AIR...WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT...BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. DRY AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND
HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

THE 850MB FRONT WILL PIVOT CLOCKWISE...STRETCHING FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO TEMPLE/KILLEEN BY MID-AFTERNOON. GENTLE MECHANICAL LIFT
OF BUOYANT AIR NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL BE AIDED BY UNSTABLE SURFACE
PARCELS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXES ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...MEAGER SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
UNABLE TO CONTAIN THE SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SUNNY WESTERN ZONES. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              89  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            86  72  87  71  81 /  20  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          88  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           89  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 291718
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS NEAR FL100 THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR FL200 OVERNIGHT. CIGS NEAR FL100 MAY RETURN BY
WED MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NOW GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES. WHILE RADAR IS
ACTIVE...A LOT OF EVAPORATION IS TAKING PLACE BELOW THE CLOUD BASE
AND RAIN ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
AFW/FTW/GKY TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WED MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH...BUT THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO BUILD CLOSER TO
TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH...BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS IN EXTENDED DFW TAF NOW.

FOR WACO...ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL STAY
WEST OF WACO...THEREFORE WILL SHOW ONLY VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

TR.92


&&

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE FRONT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE CWA AND NOW STRETCHES
FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SHALLOW
SUMMER COLD FRONTS...THE 850MB BOUNDARY HAS LAGGED FAR BEHIND. IT
CURRENTLY ARCS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LIFT ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT...TO THE EAST OF THE 850MB FRONT...RESULTED IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS DEEPER
INTO THE DRY AIR...WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT...BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. DRY AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND
HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

THE 850MB FRONT WILL PIVOT CLOCKWISE...STRETCHING FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO TEMPLE/KILLEEN BY MID-AFTERNOON. GENTLE MECHANICAL LIFT
OF BUOYANT AIR NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL BE AIDED BY UNSTABLE SURFACE
PARCELS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXES ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...MEAGER SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
UNABLE TO CONTAIN THE SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SUNNY WESTERN ZONES. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              89  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            86  72  87  71  81 /  20  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          88  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           89  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 291637 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE FRONT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE CWA AND NOW STRETCHES
FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SHALLOW
SUMMER COLD FRONTS...THE 850MB BOUNDARY HAS LAGGED FAR BEHIND. IT
CURRENTLY ARCS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LIFT ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT...TO THE EAST OF THE 850MB FRONT...RESULTED IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS DEEPER
INTO THE DRY AIR...WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT...BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. DRY AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND
HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

THE 850MB FRONT WILL PIVOT CLOCKWISE...STRETCHING FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO TEMPLE/KILLEEN BY MID-AFTERNOON. GENTLE MECHANICAL LIFT
OF BUOYANT AIR NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL BE AIDED BY UNSTABLE SURFACE
PARCELS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXES ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...MEAGER SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
UNABLE TO CONTAIN THE SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SUNNY WESTERN ZONES. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS.

DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS OF
1130Z...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE
METROPLEX.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR KACT BUT
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED KACT RAIN CHANCES...THE CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

AJS


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              89  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            86  72  87  71  81 /  20  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          88  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           89  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 291637 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE FRONT HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED THE CWA AND NOW STRETCHES
FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SHALLOW
SUMMER COLD FRONTS...THE 850MB BOUNDARY HAS LAGGED FAR BEHIND. IT
CURRENTLY ARCS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LIFT ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT...TO THE EAST OF THE 850MB FRONT...RESULTED IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS DEEPER
INTO THE DRY AIR...WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT...BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. DRY AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND
HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

THE 850MB FRONT WILL PIVOT CLOCKWISE...STRETCHING FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO TEMPLE/KILLEEN BY MID-AFTERNOON. GENTLE MECHANICAL LIFT
OF BUOYANT AIR NEAR THIS LEVEL WILL BE AIDED BY UNSTABLE SURFACE
PARCELS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXES ERODED/DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...MEAGER SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
UNABLE TO CONTAIN THE SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SUNNY WESTERN ZONES. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS.

DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS OF
1130Z...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE
METROPLEX.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR KACT BUT
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED KACT RAIN CHANCES...THE CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

AJS


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              89  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            86  72  87  71  81 /  20  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          88  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            88  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           89  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 291143
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS.

DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS OF
1130Z...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE
METROPLEX.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR KACT BUT
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED KACT RAIN CHANCES...THE CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              93  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            90  72  87  71  81 /  10  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           94  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         91  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 291143
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS.

DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AS OF
1130Z...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE
METROPLEX.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR KACT BUT
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LIKE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED KACT RAIN CHANCES...THE CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              93  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            90  72  87  71  81 /  10  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           94  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         91  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 290917
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE KACT REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WESTERN END SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THEM FORECAST
WITH SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 12 KFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AT
TIMES TONIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT SO CLOSE TO
KACT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT (08-12Z) AND ON TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES US FROM ADDING IT TO THE TAF. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              93  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            90  72  87  71  81 /  10  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           94  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         91  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 290917
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLEGE STATION TO AUSTIN...ARCING
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS MIDLAND. AREA RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOWED THAT THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT WAS
LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KFWS AND KDYX...EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR
KGRK RADAR. UNFORTUNATELY THE RESOLUTION OF RADAR PLACEMENT IS
SUCH THAT A MORE REFINED POSITION IS NOT POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WERE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS
MAY BE CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR
SURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS...HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBSERVED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR.
THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WERE EVIDENT OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX AND POINTS NORTHEAST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE
LOCATIONS DRY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE 850 MB
FRONT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THESE MODELS SHOW 850 MB FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING SOME GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LEFT 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO TEMPLE LINE THIS
MORNING IN CASE THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING DUE TO HEATING...AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPING UP LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING THE 850
MB FRONT AND THETA-E RIDGE WEST A BIT...AND REORIENT IT NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM TO GATESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SOME
20-30 POPS IN PLACE FROM WACO TO PALESTINE AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NEVER REALLY MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUT OFF FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ONCE THE 850
MB FRONT BECOMES REORIENTED TODAY...SO STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WITHIN THIS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FROM THE DFW AREA
NORTHEAST...DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE HELPED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY...SO THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS RIDING ALONG THE CONUS ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM OVER THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WAS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON 08Z WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS UTAH. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 850 MB FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WHILE BECOMING
REORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NORTH TEXAS...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THIS RETREATING FRONT ARE NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY JUST REORGANIZING FOR THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS
MOVING OVER THE CWA...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FAVORS
FRONTOLYSIS...SO THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT THIS BY ITSELF DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AT ANY RATE...LEFT SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
POSITIVE MOISTURE RETURN...AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY OFFER JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AS
POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE RETREATING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL
DEFINED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR VERY GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
COLORADO OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS IT WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW A
CONCENTRATION OF HIGH QPF OVER THE INTERSECTION OF THE PATH OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS WHERE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERLAP WITH VERY DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED-RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS KEEP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION...AND RESIDES IN WHAT SHOULD
BE SUBSIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY HAVE THE 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS ALSO
ADVERTISE THIS AREA...NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO HAVE
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE CORRECT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF WHERE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING ITS BULLS-EYE OF QPF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST AS MODEL QPF SEEMS MISPLACED...AT LEAST IN THE 12
HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THINGS THE MODEL MAY BE RESOLVING THAT ARE NOT EVIDENT
IN THE MASS FIELDS AT THIS POINT. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MODEL
OUTPUT IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS BAD...HOWEVER LONG-LIVED LATENT
HEAT RELEASE CAN RESULT IN THE DIABATIC CREATION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CAN DISPLACE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
FIELDS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING
THAT HAPPENS DURING LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO RAIN HEAVILY FOR MANY HOURS ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL
NOT KNOW IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM
THIS PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
JUST SIDED WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS WHICH INDICATE A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY
NORTHEAST OF THE DFW AREA IN LATER FORECASTS.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE
NOW COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY SEEM LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR NORTH TEXAS...MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS NOT. UNFORTUNATELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 700 MB SUBSIDENCE PUSHES OVER THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT END TO
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY IF THIS PANS OUT...MUCH OF THE DFW AREA MAY MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
BECAUSE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN QUICKLY STARTING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...OR THOSE LOCATIONS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...JUST
LOOK AT 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS TO TRACK THIS MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...IT WAS VERY EASY TO SEE ON 29/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS IF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 850 MB FRONT SINK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DFW AREA COULD GET INTO
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY RIGHT NOW...BUT WEDNESDAYS PROLONGED RAINFALL
EVENT OVER OKLAHOMA MAY CHANGE THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...PUSHING IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS CORRECT IN THE MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT...BUT WILL MODERATE BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE KACT REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WESTERN END SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THEM FORECAST
WITH SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 12 KFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AT
TIMES TONIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT SO CLOSE TO
KACT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT (08-12Z) AND ON TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES US FROM ADDING IT TO THE TAF. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
WACO, TX              93  73  97  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  80  67  76 /  10  30  40  80  50
DENTON, TX            90  72  87  71  81 /  10  30  20  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  72  84  70  80 /  10  30  30  60  50
DALLAS, TX            93  75  90  73  81 /  10  20  20  40  30
TERRELL, TX           94  73  87  72  79 /  10  20  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         91  73  93  74  84 /  10  10  20  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  97  74  90 /  30  20  10  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  72  96  71  83 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 290452 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE KACT REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WESTERN END SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THEM FORECAST
WITH SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 12 KFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AT
TIMES TONIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTION...IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT SO CLOSE TO
KACT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT (08-12Z) AND ON TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES US FROM ADDING IT TO THE TAF. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION...HAD EXITED THE CWA
AS OF 930 PM. WE EXPECT A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

ALTHOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHER THAN REMOVING EVENING POPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POST-FRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  30  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  10  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  20  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  20  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  30  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 290259
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION...HAD EXITED THE CWA
AS OF 930 PM. WE EXPECT A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

ALTHOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHER THAN REMOVING EVENING POPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KACT WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE EAST OVER CENTRAL EAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION AROUND KACT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...DO NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE KACT TAF.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AROUND/AFTER
MIDDAY TUESDAY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POST-FRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  30  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  10  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  20  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  20  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  30  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 290259
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION...HAD EXITED THE CWA
AS OF 930 PM. WE EXPECT A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

ALTHOUGH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHER THAN REMOVING EVENING POPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KACT WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE EAST OVER CENTRAL EAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION AROUND KACT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...DO NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE KACT TAF.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AROUND/AFTER
MIDDAY TUESDAY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POST-FRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  30  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  10  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  20  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  20  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  30  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 282318 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KACT WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE EAST OVER CENTRAL EAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION AROUND KACT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...DO NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE KACT TAF.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AROUND/AFTER
MIDDAY TUESDAY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POST-FRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  40  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  20  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  30  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  40  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  40  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 282318 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KACT WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE EAST OVER CENTRAL EAST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION AROUND KACT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...DO NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE KACT TAF.

OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AROUND/AFTER
MIDDAY TUESDAY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POST-FRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  40  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  20  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  30  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  40  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  40  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 282042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERED CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS MEAGER MECHANICAL FORCING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE IS HELPING VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE. JULY
SUNSHINE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED POSTFRONTAL AIR TO MIX WITH THE AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...RESULTING IN THE UNUSUAL SITUATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...
AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING. THE WEAK SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO SHORT-LIVED FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE BEGUN TO NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME CELLS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...
PARTICULARLY WITH COLLAPSING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SO FAR BEEN
MODEST...THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR LAKE
TAWAKONI...WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AN UNUSUAL GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST TEXAS
AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SWING INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRIEND
EVENTUALLY GLIDING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK WEDNESDAY
IF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FAIL TO MAKE AN IMPACT
THERE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF RAINFALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT EVEN CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SEE MILDER AIR ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-SUMMER COLD FRONTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO
HANDLE...BUT THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE CWA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CHOSE TO LEAVE SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN CASE THE FRONT IS NOT SO INCLINED.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND NORTH
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL STILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S...BUT THE HUMIDITY MAY BE A
BIT MORE TOLERABLE THAN IT USUALLY IS IN EARLY AUGUST.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD /KBWD/
TO WACO /KACT/ TO PALESTINE /KPSN/ LINE WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND TO THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CHILDRESS /KCDS/...GAINESVILLE
/KGLE/ AND WOODWARD OKLAHOMA /KWWR/ SHOULD WEAKEN THOUGH 20Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN GAINESVILLE /KGLE/ AND GILMER /KJXI/
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SHIFT SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR THE 18-22Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
AFTERWARD...A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR WACO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...FOR NOW HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20Z-00Z PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  95  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
WACO, TX              74  96  73  98  74 /  40  30  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             69  90  69  81  67 /  20  10  30  50  60
DENTON, TX            71  94  73  94  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  40  50
DALLAS, TX            75  94  75  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  40
TERRELL, TX           71  94  71  94  73 /  30  20  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  72  96  72 /  40  20  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  72  98  74 /  40  30  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  71  97  73 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 281746 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD /KBWD/
TO WACO /KACT/ TO PALESTINE /KPSN/ LINE WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND TO THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CHILDRESS /KCDS/...GAINESVILLE
/KGLE/ AND WOODWARD OKLAHOMA /KWWR/ SHOULD WEAKEN THOUGH 20Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN GAINESVILLE /KGLE/ AND GILMER /KJXI/
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SHIFT SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR THE 18-22Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
AFTERWARD...A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR WACO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...FOR NOW HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20Z-00Z PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.



58

&&

.UPDATE...
POSTFRONTAL MCS IS HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY.

BENIGN CONVECTION DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BEST MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

THE FRONT IS NOW PLODDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK POSTFRONTAL
WINDS ARE EVIDENCE OF MINIMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FURTHER
INHIBIT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP...AND
MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY 900-750MB...EXPECT
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG
UPDRAFTS ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE BRIEF NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AS THEY COLLAPSE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 281746 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD /KBWD/
TO WACO /KACT/ TO PALESTINE /KPSN/ LINE WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND TO THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CHILDRESS /KCDS/...GAINESVILLE
/KGLE/ AND WOODWARD OKLAHOMA /KWWR/ SHOULD WEAKEN THOUGH 20Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN GAINESVILLE /KGLE/ AND GILMER /KJXI/
SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SHIFT SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR THE 18-22Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
AFTERWARD...A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR WACO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...FOR NOW HAVE PLACED VCTS IN
THE WACO TAF FOR THE 20Z-00Z PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.



58

&&

.UPDATE...
POSTFRONTAL MCS IS HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY.

BENIGN CONVECTION DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BEST MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

THE FRONT IS NOW PLODDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK POSTFRONTAL
WINDS ARE EVIDENCE OF MINIMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FURTHER
INHIBIT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP...AND
MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY 900-750MB...EXPECT
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG
UPDRAFTS ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE BRIEF NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AS THEY COLLAPSE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 281716 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
POSTFRONTAL MCS IS HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY.

BENIGN CONVECTION DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BEST MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

THE FRONT IS NOW PLODDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK POSTFRONTAL
WINDS ARE EVIDENCE OF MINIMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FURTHER
INHIBIT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP...AND
MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY 900-750MB...EXPECT
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG
UPDRAFTS ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE BRIEF NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AS THEY COLLAPSE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
MULTIPLE CONCERNS ARE IN PLAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

FROPA HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL METRO TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AROUND 7 KTS. KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE DFW METRO FOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT
ABUNDANT.

FOR KACT...FROPA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AROUND 15Z.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ADDED
AFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. HAVE
PUT VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WACO BECAUSE
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

AJS


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 281716 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
POSTFRONTAL MCS IS HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY.

BENIGN CONVECTION DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE
OF THE BEST MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

THE FRONT IS NOW PLODDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK POSTFRONTAL
WINDS ARE EVIDENCE OF MINIMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FURTHER
INHIBIT ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP...AND
MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY 900-750MB...EXPECT
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000J/KG IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND PW VALUES TOPPING 2 INCHES...STRONG
UPDRAFTS ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOADING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE BRIEF NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AS THEY COLLAPSE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/
MULTIPLE CONCERNS ARE IN PLAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

FROPA HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL METRO TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AROUND 7 KTS. KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE DFW METRO FOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT
ABUNDANT.

FOR KACT...FROPA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AROUND 15Z.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ADDED
AFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. HAVE
PUT VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WACO BECAUSE
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

AJS


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 281201
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MULTIPLE CONCERNS ARE IN PLAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

FROPA HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL METRO TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AROUND 7 KTS. KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE DFW METRO FOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT
ABUNDANT.

FOR KACT...FROPA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AROUND 15Z.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ADDED
AFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. HAVE
PUT VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WACO BECAUSE
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 281201
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MULTIPLE CONCERNS ARE IN PLAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

FROPA HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH ALL METRO TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AROUND 7 KTS. KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE DFW METRO FOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT
ABUNDANT.

FOR KACT...FROPA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AROUND 15Z.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ADDED
AFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. HAVE
PUT VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WACO BECAUSE
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  74  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              97  75  92  73  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             91  68  87  70  80 /  40  10  10  30  50
DENTON, TX            93  71  90  72  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          95  70  93  72  92 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            95  76  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           96  73  95  74  93 /  30  20  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  95  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  73  93  72  97 /  40  30  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  91  71  96 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 280916 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              99  75  93  73  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             90  69  90  70  86 /  40  20  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            91  73  93  73  91 /  40  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          92  70  93  72  91 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           95  72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  93  71  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  94  72  97 /  30  30  30  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  92  71  93 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 280916 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES DISRUPTED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HEATING PROMOTES
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED RESERVOIR OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF
THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED UP ENOUGH FOR
AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW COOL AIR...AND ALMOST
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WACO
TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              99  75  93  73  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             90  69  90  70  86 /  40  20  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            91  73  93  73  91 /  40  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          92  70  93  72  91 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           95  72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  93  71  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  94  72  97 /  30  30  30  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  92  71  93 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 280902
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO
THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED
RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED
UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW
COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              99  75  93  73  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             90  69  90  70  86 /  40  20  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            91  73  93  73  91 /  40  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          92  70  93  72  91 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           95  72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  93  71  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  94  72  97 /  30  30  30  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  92  71  93 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 280902
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
LUBBOCK TO BOWIE TO SHERMAN AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENED OVER NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY BREAKING DOWN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND REORGANIZING WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT TO SEE 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 TO 4 DM ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB THIS MORNING WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST OF THE CWA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA BY THIS TIME...SO MAINTAINED 30
POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO TO ATHENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE MID-MORNING HRS TO
THE MID-AFTERNOON HRS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE BEST LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
HEATING PROMOTES BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINS
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 800 TO 750 MB WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED FOR AIR TO REACH ITS
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE ELEVATED
RESERVOIR OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS INTERRUPTED...NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY FOR SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS TO BE HEATED
UP ENOUGH FOR AIR TO BE LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP BY THE WEAK FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REPRESENTS A LAYER OF ONLY SHALLOW
COOL AIR...AND ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT...RATHER THAN ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT LEAVING ONLY A WIND-SHIFT LINE DEFINING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY.
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE
TO WACO TO PALESTINE THIS AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES...SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASIDE FROM THE LIGHTNING THREAT PRESENT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DESPITE STORMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LONG
AS THE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION MIXES OUT AS EXPECTED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL ADVERTISE AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILE...INDICATIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD NOT BE COMMON DUE TO A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER THETA-E DIFFERENCE WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ACCELERATIONS. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LIGHT...LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLOW THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STORMS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM ANY ONE LOCATION WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY DOMINATING STORM
MOTIONS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW IN ADVERTISING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS ARE
NOW ALSO CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE HOLDING UP
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS THETA-E RIDGE MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE TIME OF THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION.

COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THIS THETA-E RIDGE.
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...MORE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IF WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...CONVERGENCE WILL SHUNTED MORE TO THE
WEST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE. JUST MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W FOR NOW WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PAN OUT. EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE DRY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB ANTI-CYCLONE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA OVER TOWARDS LOUISIANA FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF
DRY COOL AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO BE INTERRUPTED AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BACK OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS AS SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS THETA-E
RIDGE...SO TRANSITIONED POPS TO MATCH THE MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE OVERNIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS MENTIONED A LOT HERE BECAUSE IT IS
THE EASIEST WAY TO TRACK OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...BECOMING REORIENTED AND CHANGING IN
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN A COLD TO STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTEAD OF CHANGING THE NAME OF THE
FRONT SEVERAL TIMES...THE THETA-E RIDGE CAN BE USED AS A PROXY
FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
IS EASY TO REFER TO AS ONE THING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT DIPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS FLOW REGIME HEADED OVER
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF
YESTERDAY EVENINGS MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACTUALLY TRACK-ABLE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS WELL...MAKING FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN GENERAL. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.

WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IN PLACE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE US
OUR BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEK. WENT AHEAD WITH 40
TO 60 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE
TO MCKINNEY TO EMORY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTING WITH
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE A GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
MESOSCALE/SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS DICTATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IN LATER FORECASTS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL TEND TO BE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

THE THETA-E RIDGE/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND KEPT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS IN PLACE AS A
RESULT. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE THINGS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. LEFT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS
THE ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK UP TOWARDS NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              99  75  93  73  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             90  69  90  70  86 /  40  20  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            91  73  93  73  91 /  40  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          92  70  93  72  91 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            94  75  93  75  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           95  72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  93  71  94 /  30  30  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  94  72  97 /  30  30  30  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  72  92  71  93 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 280450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82







000
FXUS64 KFWD 280450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 280244 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND
WACO AROUND 18Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT
THE METRO TERMINALS AND FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT WACO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MENTION STORMS IN
THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FT ON MONDAY.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 280244 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND
WACO AROUND 18Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT
THE METRO TERMINALS AND FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT WACO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MENTION STORMS IN
THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FT ON MONDAY.

79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82







000
FXUS64 KFWD 272331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND
WACO AROUND 18Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT
THE METRO TERMINALS AND FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT WACO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MENTION STORMS IN
THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FT ON MONDAY.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             75  90  69  90  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  91  73  93  73 /  20  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   5  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 272331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 6 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND
WACO AROUND 18Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS.

THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT
THE METRO TERMINALS AND FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT WACO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP IN THE TAFS BUT WILL MENTION STORMS IN
THE VICINITY.

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FT ON MONDAY.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             75  90  69  90  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  91  73  93  73 /  20  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   5  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82







000
FXUS64 KFWD 272056
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 113 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER...AIDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP
SPEED AFTER DARK...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUTS THE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE RED RIVER AT 06Z...OR 1 AM CDT. AT THAT RATE...IT COULD REACH
THE METROPLEX AS EARLY AS 12Z...OR 7 AM CDT. BUMPED UP FROPA TO
14Z...OR 9 AM CDT...WITH THE 18Z PACKAGE. FROPA AT WACO WILL BE A
SHIFT TO EAST WINDS...LIKELY NEAR OF AFTER 18Z.

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WAS LIMITED ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION. POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS
MEAGER MECHANICAL LIFT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SOME
POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY IMPACTING OPERATIONS. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             75  90  69  90  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  91  73  93  73 /  20  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   5  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 272056
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 113 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO VEER...AIDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP
SPEED AFTER DARK...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUTS THE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE RED RIVER AT 06Z...OR 1 AM CDT. AT THAT RATE...IT COULD REACH
THE METROPLEX AS EARLY AS 12Z...OR 7 AM CDT. BUMPED UP FROPA TO
14Z...OR 9 AM CDT...WITH THE 18Z PACKAGE. FROPA AT WACO WILL BE A
SHIFT TO EAST WINDS...LIKELY NEAR OF AFTER 18Z.

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WAS LIMITED ACROSS KANSAS ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION. POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS
MEAGER MECHANICAL LIFT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SOME
POSTFRONTAL ACTIVITY IMPACTING OPERATIONS. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE...REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             75  90  69  90  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  91  73  93  73 /  20  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  10  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   5  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58







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