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000
FXUS64 KFWD 261208 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING...
WHICH WOULD MEAN A CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN GRAHAM...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CALM...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED FREEZING. DESPITE THE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPRING FEVER WILL BE IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S REGIONWIDE. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN ECMWF MOS IS 79F FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DFW AND WACO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REACH THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70F IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE WILL
PERSIST...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING ITS PASSAGE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR MAY SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH A LARGE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD GUIDE THAT AIR MASS TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT FOR TEXAS THIS WEEKEND IS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A CHILLY BUT ABOVE-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON DAY 6 WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  45  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              71  43  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  42  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  41  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  42  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            70  46  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  43  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         68  45  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  44  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  41  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25









000
FXUS64 KFWD 261208 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING...
WHICH WOULD MEAN A CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN GRAHAM...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CALM...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED FREEZING. DESPITE THE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPRING FEVER WILL BE IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S REGIONWIDE. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN ECMWF MOS IS 79F FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DFW AND WACO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REACH THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70F IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE WILL
PERSIST...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING ITS PASSAGE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR MAY SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH A LARGE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD GUIDE THAT AIR MASS TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT FOR TEXAS THIS WEEKEND IS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A CHILLY BUT ABOVE-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON DAY 6 WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  45  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              71  43  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  42  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  41  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  42  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            70  46  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  43  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         68  45  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  44  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  41  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 260900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING...
WHICH WOULD MEAN A CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN GRAHAM...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CALM...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED FREEZING. DESPITE THE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPRING FEVER WILL BE IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S REGIONWIDE. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN ECMWF MOS IS 79F FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DFW AND WACO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REACH THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70F IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE WILL
PERSIST...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING ITS PASSAGE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR MAY SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH A LARGE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD GUIDE THAT AIR MASS TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT FOR TEXAS THIS WEEKEND IS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A CHILLY BUT ABOVE-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON DAY 6 WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...AS WNW WINDS 5-7 KTS BACK AROUND WSW/SW 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED BETWEEN DEL RIO/LAREDO
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  45  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              71  43  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             65  42  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  41  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  42  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            70  46  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  43  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         68  45  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  44  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  41  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 260900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
THE REGION. POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING...
WHICH WOULD MEAN A CHILLY AND RAINY WEEKEND.

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN GRAHAM...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CALM...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED FREEZING. DESPITE THE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPRING FEVER WILL BE IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S REGIONWIDE. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WHEN ECMWF MOS IS 79F FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DFW AND WACO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REACH THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN 70F IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUBSIDENCE WILL
PERSIST...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING ITS PASSAGE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIR MAY SPILL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH A LARGE CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD GUIDE THAT AIR MASS TOWARD
THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT FOR TEXAS THIS WEEKEND IS SOUTHWEST
FLOW...RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A CHILLY BUT ABOVE-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING ON DAY 6 WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...AS WNW WINDS 5-7 KTS BACK AROUND WSW/SW 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED BETWEEN DEL RIO/LAREDO
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  45  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              71  43  74  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             65  42  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  41  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  42  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            70  46  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  43  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         68  45  73  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  44  74  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  41  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 260509 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...AS WNW WINDS 5-7 KTS BACK AROUND WSW/SW 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED BETWEEN DEL RIO/LAREDO
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS
LOOK REASONABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THUS WILL LET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MID 60S TO MID 70S...ON MONDAY
DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.     79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 260509 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...AS WNW WINDS 5-7 KTS BACK AROUND WSW/SW 10-15
KTS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED BETWEEN DEL RIO/LAREDO
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVERHEAD.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS
LOOK REASONABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THUS WILL LET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MID 60S TO MID 70S...ON MONDAY
DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.     79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 260309 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS
LOOK REASONABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THUS WILL LET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MID 60S TO MID 70S...ON MONDAY
DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BACKING WINDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
MONDAY.    05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.     79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 260309 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS
LOOK REASONABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THUS WILL LET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MID 60S TO MID 70S...ON MONDAY
DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BACKING WINDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
MONDAY.    05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.     79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 252329 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BACKING WINDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
MONDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 252329 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BACKING WINDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
MONDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 252049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING FROM A SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 252049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ONCE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH EVEN SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

AFTER A MILD MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET ROTATES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE BOTH INCREASE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. TEMPERATURES BELOW
800 MB SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BRUNT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO STALL VERY NEAR BAJA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS A FEW DAYS AGO WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ON THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
PATTERN PROGGED THE PAST 2 DAYS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOT TO SAY THE PATTERN
COULD NOT CHANGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN THE
MODELS BECOME LESS MAGNIFIED WITH DECREASING TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE
DANGER IN HANGING YOUR HAT OR PERFECT PROGGING A MODEL 7 TO 10
DAYS OUT.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING FROM A SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  71  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              37  72  42  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  65  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            34  70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          36  69  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  67  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  69  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  72  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     37  74  40  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 251737
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING FROM A SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. WE STILL EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOLAR
HEATING IS OFFSET BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 251650
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. WE STILL EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOLAR
HEATING IS OFFSET BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE CROSSWIND ISSUES 16Z-00Z DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

WINDS WERE BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS AROUND 15Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LATE MORNING /16Z/ THROUGH
SUNSET /00Z/. HAVE INDICATED WINDS AT 330 DEGREES STARTING AT 16Z
BUT IF THEY ARE MORE LIKE 310-320 DEGREES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 251650
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. WE STILL EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOLAR
HEATING IS OFFSET BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE CROSSWIND ISSUES 16Z-00Z DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

WINDS WERE BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS AROUND 15Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LATE MORNING /16Z/ THROUGH
SUNSET /00Z/. HAVE INDICATED WINDS AT 330 DEGREES STARTING AT 16Z
BUT IF THEY ARE MORE LIKE 310-320 DEGREES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 251213 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE CROSSWIND ISSUES 16Z-00Z DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

WINDS WERE BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS AROUND 15Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LATE MORNING /16Z/ THROUGH
SUNSET /00Z/. HAVE INDICATED WINDS AT 330 DEGREES STARTING AT 16Z
BUT IF THEY ARE MORE LIKE 310-320 DEGREES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25









000
FXUS64 KFWD 251213 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...POSSIBLE CROSSWIND ISSUES 16Z-00Z DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

WINDS WERE BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS AROUND 15Z
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LATE MORNING /16Z/ THROUGH
SUNSET /00Z/. HAVE INDICATED WINDS AT 330 DEGREES STARTING AT 16Z
BUT IF THEY ARE MORE LIKE 310-320 DEGREES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25










000
FXUS64 KFWD 250950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 250950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 250950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 250950
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 250511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW MORNINGS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 9 PM. IT/S WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES 3-4 AM AND PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM REMAINS WET IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH DRIER. IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ONE...CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA...THEN THE WET SOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS ALSO ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND BE REVISITED DAILY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.   79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 250511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WILL BE TO SPEED UP INITIAL FROPA INTO DFW
AREA BY 2-3 HRS PER CURRENT POSITION/SPEED AND INTERPOLATION...AS
IT CURRENTLY ENTERS THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES. AIRPORTS WILL SE
SW WINDS 5-7 KTS SHIFTING WNW 10-15 KTS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING
NW AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW MORNINGS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 9 PM. IT/S WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES 3-4 AM AND PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM REMAINS WET IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH DRIER. IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ONE...CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA...THEN THE WET SOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS ALSO ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND BE REVISITED DAILY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.   79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 250335 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW MORNINGS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 9 PM. IT/S WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES 3-4 AM AND PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM REMAINS WET IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH DRIER. IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ONE...CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA...THEN THE WET SOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS ALSO ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND BE REVISITED DAILY. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THE
ONLY MINOR CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING IN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
BKN-OVC CIRRUS ACROSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT AND SYSTEM WILL BE
DRY AS LOWER-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS THIS EVENING TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL COLD FROPA JUST BEFORE 15Z SUNDAY. AS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME WITH DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.    05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.   79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 250335 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TOMORROW MORNINGS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 9 PM. IT/S WIND SHIFT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES 3-4 AM AND PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT MID MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT WORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM REMAINS WET IN THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH DRIER. IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ONE...CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA...THEN THE WET SOLUTION OF THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE GFS IS ALSO ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND BE REVISITED DAILY. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THE
ONLY MINOR CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING IN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
BKN-OVC CIRRUS ACROSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT AND SYSTEM WILL BE
DRY AS LOWER-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS THIS EVENING TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL COLD FROPA JUST BEFORE 15Z SUNDAY. AS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME WITH DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.    05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.   79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 242359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THE
ONLY MINOR CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING IN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
BKN-OVC CIRRUS ACROSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT AND SYSTEM WILL BE
DRY AS LOWER-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS THIS EVENING TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL COLD FROPA JUST BEFORE 15Z SUNDAY. AS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME WITH DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 242359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THE
ONLY MINOR CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING IN A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NE COLORADO AND NEBRASKA.

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
BKN-OVC CIRRUS ACROSS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT AND SYSTEM WILL BE
DRY AS LOWER-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-9 KTS THIS EVENING TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL COLD FROPA JUST BEFORE 15Z SUNDAY. AS
THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME WITH DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 242054
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE
WEST...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SIMPLY BECAUSE IT EXPECTED TO SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...10 KT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FALL TO 5-7 KT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. FROPA IN THE METROPLEX
SHOULD BE 12-13Z...THEN 15Z AT KACT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         39  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 242054
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NATION AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A MORNING FROPA...DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S
BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGHING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AS PER BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE
WEST...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SIMPLY BECAUSE IT EXPECTED TO SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...10 KT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FALL TO 5-7 KT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. FROPA IN THE METROPLEX
SHOULD BE 12-13Z...THEN 15Z AT KACT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              38  66  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             35  63  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            35  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          35  63  36  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            41  65  40  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           37  63  38  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         39  64  40  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            36  66  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     35  68  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 241715
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE
WEST...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SIMPLY BECAUSE IT EXPECTED TO SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...10 KT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FALL TO 5-7 KT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. FROPA IN THE METROPLEX
SHOULD BE 12-13Z...THEN 15Z AT KACT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THIN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WILL DO A QUICK GRID ADJUSTMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 241715
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE
WEST...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SIMPLY BECAUSE IT EXPECTED TO SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...10 KT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
FALL TO 5-7 KT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. FROPA IN THE METROPLEX
SHOULD BE 12-13Z...THEN 15Z AT KACT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THIN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WILL DO A QUICK GRID ADJUSTMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 241655
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THIN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WILL DO A QUICK GRID ADJUSTMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 12Z TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS 15 TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 KNOTS
15-17Z SUNDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 241655
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THIN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WILL DO A QUICK GRID ADJUSTMENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 12Z TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS 15 TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 KNOTS
15-17Z SUNDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 241204 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 12Z TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS 15 TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 KNOTS
15-17Z SUNDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 241204 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 12Z TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS 15 TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 KNOTS
15-17Z SUNDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 240952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 240952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 240952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 240952
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AFTER WHICH UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED
RUN OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES...THE SECOND OF WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF
WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1).

DESPITE A FROSTY START TO THE MORNING AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...FULL SUN AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED FRIDAY VALUES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE COLD ADVECTION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
VIRTUALLY UNABATED. ALL AREAS WILL REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST ZONES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 120M (400FT) ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR LATE JANUARY...
WHICH BY ITSELF MIGHT SUGGEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WOULD SOAR
INTO THE 70S. BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY...THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S EAST
TO THE LOWER 70S WEST EACH AFTERNOON.

SPRING FEVER WILL COME TO AN WHEN THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
GLANCING BLOW TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SIMPLY RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. BUT WITH A POTENT CUTOFF NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUMPING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL
AIR...FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING A DREARY RAINY DAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER NEXT SATURDAY
(JANUARY 31). ITS TEMPORAL PROXIMITY TO THE THURSDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONDUCIVE TO
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AROUND THE TIME THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  41  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  37  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             57  38  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  38  65  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          58  37  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  39  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         59  40  66  40  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            61  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  36  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 240520 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.     79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 240520 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND 16Z AT KACT. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL RETURN
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z
WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 6 KNOTS AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT NEARS.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.     79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 232315 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR DURING THIS FORECAST. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME WESTERLY BY 03Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID MORNING SATURDAY. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 232315 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR DURING THIS FORECAST. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME WESTERLY BY 03Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID MORNING SATURDAY. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 232052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
...18Z PACKAGE...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 232052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LONE STAR STATE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW AND LEAVE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABUNDANT SUN AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE 50S...WARMING TO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BUILDING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TWO SOLUTIONS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A DEEP
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW AND CONFINES THE PRECIP TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION...SIDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ON ITS
TRACK RECORD WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
...18Z PACKAGE...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  35  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              29  59  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             29  57  38  65  36 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            30  58  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  59  37  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  59  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           31  58  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  59  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            31  60  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     28  62  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231709
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. SOME SNOW WAS FALLING NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW IN THE
HILL COUNTRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW
REPORTING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. WE EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FOR THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
...18Z PACKAGE...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEFORE A PROTRACTED DRY PERIOD BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHED THE SURFACE...THE BANDS OF PRECIP
ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAD THE APPEARANCE OF SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB LOW. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS LARGELY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH SOME
OF THE PRECIP PROCESSES EXTENDED AS HIGH AS 12-14KFT AGL. DESPITE
A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH WHICH TO FALL...THE FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE
GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WEAK FORCING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE RICH
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
COMPARED TO SAN ANGELO...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS
IN LIQUID FORM...ANY SNOW WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE AN ADDITIONAL
1000FT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE. FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY...
AT WHICH POINT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

25

.EXTENDED...
ON THE HEELS OF OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS A 500MB SHORTWAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 200MB LOW HAS ALREADY CUT OFF
NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL PLUME AROUND 1200 MILES
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM MAKING ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN...IT
WILL ALSO GET STRANDED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
TEMPORARY REX BLOCK. ALTHOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INITIALLY BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM...THE STREAM OF POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY PAIR UP WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE...AND THESE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL
ABOVE OUR HEADS THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70S...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVEN
THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
NEXT FRIDAY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  33  58  39  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  31  60  36  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  30  56  36  65 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  30  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  30  57  36  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  34  57  40  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  32  57  37  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  58  39  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  32  60  36  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  59  34  69 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79









000
FXUS64 KFWD 231709
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. SOME SNOW WAS FALLING NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW IN THE
HILL COUNTRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW
REPORTING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. WE EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FOR THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
...18Z PACKAGE...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEFORE A PROTRACTED DRY PERIOD BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHED THE SURFACE...THE BANDS OF PRECIP
ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAD THE APPEARANCE OF SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB LOW. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS LARGELY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH SOME
OF THE PRECIP PROCESSES EXTENDED AS HIGH AS 12-14KFT AGL. DESPITE
A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH WHICH TO FALL...THE FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE
GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WEAK FORCING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE RICH
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
COMPARED TO SAN ANGELO...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS
IN LIQUID FORM...ANY SNOW WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE AN ADDITIONAL
1000FT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE. FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY...
AT WHICH POINT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

25

.EXTENDED...
ON THE HEELS OF OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS A 500MB SHORTWAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 200MB LOW HAS ALREADY CUT OFF
NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL PLUME AROUND 1200 MILES
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM MAKING ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN...IT
WILL ALSO GET STRANDED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
TEMPORARY REX BLOCK. ALTHOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INITIALLY BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM...THE STREAM OF POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY PAIR UP WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE...AND THESE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL
ABOVE OUR HEADS THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70S...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVEN
THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
NEXT FRIDAY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  33  58  39  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  31  60  36  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  30  56  36  65 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  30  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  30  57  36  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  34  57  40  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  32  57  37  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  58  39  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  32  60  36  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  59  34  69 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79








000
FXUS64 KFWD 231707
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEFORE A PROTRACTED DRY PERIOD BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHED THE SURFACE...THE BANDS OF PRECIP
ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAD THE APPEARANCE OF SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB LOW. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS LARGELY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH SOME
OF THE PRECIP PROCESSES EXTENDED AS HIGH AS 12-14KFT AGL. DESPITE
A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH WHICH TO FALL...THE FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE
GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WEAK FORCING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE RICH
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
COMPARED TO SAN ANGELO...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS
IN LIQUID FORM...ANY SNOW WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE AN ADDITIONAL
1000FT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE. FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY...
AT WHICH POINT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

25

.EXTENDED...
ON THE HEELS OF OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS A 500MB SHORTWAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 200MB LOW HAS ALREADY CUT OFF
NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL PLUME AROUND 1200 MILES
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM MAKING ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN...IT
WILL ALSO GET STRANDED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
TEMPORARY REX BLOCK. ALTHOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INITIALLY BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM...THE STREAM OF POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY PAIR UP WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE...AND THESE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL
ABOVE OUR HEADS THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70S...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVEN
THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
NEXT FRIDAY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  33  58  39  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  31  60  36  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  30  56  36  65 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  30  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  30  57  36  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  34  57  40  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  32  57  37  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  58  39  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  32  60  36  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  59  34  69 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231707
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVERHEAD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 7 TO 12 KTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING ONE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEFORE A PROTRACTED DRY PERIOD BEGINS.

ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REACHED THE SURFACE...THE BANDS OF PRECIP
ON RADAR OVERNIGHT HAD THE APPEARANCE OF SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700MB LOW. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WAS LARGELY BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THOUGH SOME
OF THE PRECIP PROCESSES EXTENDED AS HIGH AS 12-14KFT AGL. DESPITE
A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH WHICH TO FALL...THE FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS FULLY MELTED IN THE 2000FT LAYER ADJACENT TO THE
GROUND THAT REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WEAK FORCING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT APPROACHING WITH THE 500MB TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE RICH
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE
WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
COMPARED TO SAN ANGELO...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS
IN LIQUID FORM...ANY SNOW WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE AN ADDITIONAL
1000FT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN THIS MORNING. ANY SNOW WOULD POSE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE. FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY...
AT WHICH POINT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

25

.EXTENDED...
ON THE HEELS OF OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS A 500MB SHORTWAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 200MB LOW HAS ALREADY CUT OFF
NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL PLUME AROUND 1200 MILES
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THIS WILL PREVENT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM MAKING ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN...IT
WILL ALSO GET STRANDED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
TEMPORARY REX BLOCK. ALTHOUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
INITIALLY BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM...THE STREAM OF POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY PAIR UP WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE...AND THESE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL
ABOVE OUR HEADS THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY 70S...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVEN
THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
NEXT FRIDAY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  33  58  39  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              48  31  60  36  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  30  56  36  65 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  30  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  30  57  36  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            50  34  57  40  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  32  57  37  66 /  30   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  58  39  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  32  60  36  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  59  34  69 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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