Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KFWD 230433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS MAY REACH THE METROPLEX
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING BY THEN
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT CAP...AND IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN
IF THEY WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER FOR DALLAS-
FORT WORTH AREA TAF SITES. IT MAY JUST DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BECOMES. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING THE
CAP LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE DFW TRACON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CIN WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92







000
FXUS64 KFWD 222326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NARROWS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SPRING STORM SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE AS LIFT INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT TO THE METROPLEX OR TO WACO
WOULD OCCUR AFTER 24/06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL INCLUDE TS...BUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE IT WOULD BE BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CIN WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 222042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CINH WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING THE SHIFT IN WINDS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY IS THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SLOWLY VEERING WIND
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTH OF
DUE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED AROUND ALL AREA AIRPORTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR AROUND 4000 FT IN
ALTITUDE AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN BY
HEATING...AND WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH SOME MORE FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR DFW AREA TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES ARE ANY
STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE CAP
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING AREA
AIRPORTS. HOWEVER THERE ARE PLENTY OF FORECASTS BETWEEN NOW AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REVISIT THIS THINKING.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KGKY AND KACT WITH MVFR AT KDAL. FOG SHOULD
REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE AND WILL ONLY MENTION FOG AT THESE SITES
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF VISIBILITIES DROP AT OTHER
SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14-15Z AND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /










000
FXUS64 KFWD 220830
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 220423
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL LOCATIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR AT WACO
WHERE MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
PM...DESPITE ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HEADING
TOWARD ATHENS AND BROWNSBORO CURRENTLY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND MOVE
OUT BY/OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND BRING MAINLY LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL
PUSH TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /   5   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  10   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /   5   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /   5   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /   5   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  10   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  30  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /   5   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220251 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
PM...DESPITE ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HEADING
TOWARD ATHENS AND BROWNSBORO CURRENTLY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND MOVE
OUT BY/OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND BRING MAINLY LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL
PUSH TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORMS EARLY.

METROPLEX...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED METROPLEX TAF SITES (ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
IS STILL WITHIN THE VICINITY RANGE RING OF KGKY). DFW AIRPORT
REMAINS IN SOUTH FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
BELOW 12KTS (THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS). THE PRIMARY
ISSUE FOR METROPLEX COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NE/SE ARRIVALS AND S/E DEPARTURES. OF THE
FOUR AFOREMENTIONED ROUTES...THE BONHAM VORTAC CORNERPOST IS
ALREADY LARGELY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT STARVED OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CUMULUS WILL REMAIN.

WACO...
STRONG STORM UPSTREAM IS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONCE IT PASSES...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

25


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
/FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND EXPECTED TRENDS/

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW MOVING READILY TOWARD I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS
FROM DFW EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
ALIGNED FROM BENBROOK...TO SOUTH OF GLEN ROSE...TOWARD HWY 281
FROM HAMILTON TO LAMPASAS. FEEL BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEXAS TECH
WRF...ARW-EAST WRF...HRRR AND NAM12 HAVE ALL ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF
A CANTON...WACO...LAMPASAS LINE BY 9 PM AND AFTER...WITH BEST
COVERAGE EAST OF I-35/I-35 WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING LINE SEGMENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS 50-60% SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH-MOVING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR THE WATCH...WILL CANCEL ALL COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF A
SULPHUR SPRING...FORT WORTH...MERIDIAN...GATESVILLE LINE. REST OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 WILL REMAIN IN TACT LIKELY UNTIL
EXPIRATION TIME AT 10 PM CDT.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  10   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  40  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  20   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  10   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  10   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  40   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  10   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220038 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
738 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
/FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND EXPECTED TRENDS/

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW MOVING READILY TOWARD I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS
FROM DFW EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
ALIGNED FROM BENBROOK...TO SOUTH OF GLEN ROSE...TOWARD HWY 281
FROM HAMILTON TO LAMPASAS. FEEL BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEXAS TECH
WRF...ARW-EAST WRF...HRRR AND NAM12 HAVE ALL ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF
A CANTON...WACO...LAMPASAS LINE BY 9 PM AND AFTER...WITH BEST
COVERAGE EAST OF I-35/I-35 WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING LINE SEGMENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS 50-60% SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH-MOVING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR THE WATCH...WILL CANCEL ALL COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF A
SULPHUR SPRING...FORT WORTH...MERIDIAN...GATESVILLE LINE. REST OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 WILL REMAIN IN TACT LIKELY UNTIL
EXPIRATION TIME AT 10 PM CDT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORMS EARLY.

METROPLEX...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED METROPLEX TAF SITES (ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
IS STILL WITHIN THE VICINITY RANGE RING OF KGKY). DFW AIRPORT
REMAINS IN SOUTH FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
BELOW 12KTS (THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS). THE PRIMARY
ISSUE FOR METROPLEX COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NE/SE ARRIVALS AND S/E DEPARTURES. OF THE
FOUR AFOREMENTIONED ROUTES...THE BONHAM VORTAC CORNERPOST IS
ALREADY LARGELY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT STARVED OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CUMULUS WILL REMAIN.

WACO...
STRONG STORM UPSTREAM IS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONCE IT PASSES...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  10   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  40  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  20   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  10   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  10   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  40   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  10   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 212325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORMS EARLY.

METROPLEX...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED METROPLEX TAF SITES (ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
IS STILL WITHIN THE VICINITY RANGE RING OF KGKY). DFW AIRPORT
REMAINS IN SOUTH FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
BELOW 12KTS (THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS). THE PRIMARY
ISSUE FOR METROPLEX COMMERCIAL AIRPORTS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NE/SE ARRIVALS AND S/E DEPARTURES. OF THE
FOUR AFOREMENTIONED ROUTES...THE BONHAM VORTAC CORNERPOST IS
ALREADY LARGELY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT STARVED OF MOISTURE AND
SOME CUMULUS WILL REMAIN.

WACO...
STRONG STORM UPSTREAM IS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ONCE IT PASSES...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  60   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  30   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  50   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  60   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  20   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 212046
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THE CAP HAD ERODED AS OF 3
PM WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE
HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS LOW OVERALL SINCE THERE IS NO REAL MECHANISM TO BACK THE
SURFACE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE OF INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A DOSE OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE FOUR CORERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING A LATE
SEASON SNOW STORM TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND AWAIT SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY...NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  60  85  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
WACO, TX              62  81  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             59  76  55  79  61 /  60   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            58  81  57  85  63 /  30   5   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  78  55  82  62 /  50   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            62  80  62  84  63 /  50   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           60  79  57  82  62 /  60   5   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  80  60  83  62 /  60  10   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  82  59  84  63 /  60  10   5   5  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  81  54  85  62 /  20   5   5   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211812 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM TIMING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN
AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE TWO
OF NOTE... (1) A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
THE RED RIVER AND (2) A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR JACKSBORO TO
NEAR CLEBURNE. EXPECT THE RED RIVER FOCUS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
GO...WITH STORM MOTION NEARLY DUE EAST. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. STORMS WILL NOT
LINGER AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE 6-HOUR
VCTS GROUPS...WHICH WILL BE MORE PRECISELY DEFINED ONCE INITIATION
BEGINS. ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE GREATER THAN THE OPPOSING
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC FORCING. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION AND STORM FORMATION WILL BE AIDED BY
WEST TO EAST CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGES
NECESSARY WILL BE SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND
WIND.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JACKSBORO
TO MUENSTER AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP...EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY 7 PM /00Z/. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND 25 TO 30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHEAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ALSO LEFT 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  61  82  60  85 /  60  50   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  61  83  59  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  79  56  81 /  70  60   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            80  57  81  57  83 /  50  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  58  81  57  83 /  60  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  61  82  61  86 /  60  50   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           79  60  81  59  84 /  60  60   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  62  83  59  85 /  40  60  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  61  82  60  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  57  82  57  85 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211616
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE GREATER THAN THE OPPOSING
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC FORCING. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION AND STORM FORMATION WILL BE AIDED BY
WEST TO EAST CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGES
NECESSARY WILL BE SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND
WIND.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS...CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ACT/GKY...CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND WILL BE OVER ALL SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE CIGS
WILL LIFT AROUND NOON BACK INTO VFR CATEGORIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL SHOW VCTS FOR THE METROPLEX AND A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FOR WACO WHERE SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR AND CONVECTION WILL
END.

HAMPSHIRE


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JACKSBORO
TO MUENSTER AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP...EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY 7 PM /00Z/. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND 25 TO 30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHEAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ALSO LEFT 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  61  82  60  85 /  60  50   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  61  83  59  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  79  56  81 /  70  60   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            80  57  81  57  83 /  50  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  58  81  57  83 /  60  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  61  82  61  86 /  60  50   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           79  60  81  59  84 /  60  60   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  62  83  59  85 /  40  60  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  61  82  60  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  57  82  57  85 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211158
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS...CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ACT/GKY...CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND WILL BE OVER ALL SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE CIGS
WILL LIFT AROUND NOON BACK INTO VFR CATEGORIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL SHOW VCTS FOR THE METROPLEX AND A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FOR WACO WHERE SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR AND CONVECTION WILL
END.

HAMPSHIRE

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JACKSBORO
TO MUENSTER AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP...EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY 7 PM /00Z/. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND 25 TO 30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHEAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ALSO LEFT 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  61  82  60  85 /  60  50   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  61  83  59  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  79  56  81 /  70  60   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            80  57  81  57  83 /  50  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  58  81  57  83 /  60  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  61  82  61  86 /  60  50   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           79  60  81  59  84 /  60  60   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  62  83  59  85 /  40  60  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  61  82  60  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  57  82  57  85 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210829
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM JACKSBORO
TO MUENSTER AT 3 AM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX BY DAYBREAK AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY POP UP...EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY 7 PM /00Z/. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND 25 TO 30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO OR
TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTHEAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA. WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20-30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
ALSO LEFT 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  61  82  60  85 /  60  50   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  61  83  59  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  79  56  81 /  80  60   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            80  57  81  57  83 /  50  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  58  81  57  83 /  60  50   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  61  82  61  86 /  60  50   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           79  60  81  59  84 /  60  60   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  62  83  59  85 /  40  60  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  61  82  60  85 /  30  60  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  57  82  57  85 /  30  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210447 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD DRIVE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAINLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SOUTHERN OK THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...WAA REGIME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE DFW METRO THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL THROUGH 1-2 AM. CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST AND CIGS VARYING FROM
VFR...TO MVFR...THEN BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR TRENDS ON ALL EVENTS FROM 00Z ISSUANCE. WILL
CARRY SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH 07-08Z AT DFW AIRPORTS...THEN
ONLY CARRY VCSH AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS. STILL APPEARS WEAK OUTFLOW WILL TRIGGER STORMS BETWEEN MID-
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
ARRIVING BY MID EVENING ACROSS THE DFW AREA...THEN AT WACO LIKELY
BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT ESE WINDS 5-10 MPH...SHOULD BECOME S 10-13 KTS
BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN VEER SWLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN NW 7-10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS AGREE FOR
THE MOST PART THAT THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD
NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. AT 3
PM...THE ACTIVITY WAS BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY WICHITA FALLS...
BRIDGEPORT AND ABILENE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY
NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS...BUT CHANCES ARE THAT ANY SUCH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DRASTICALLY BEFORE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS GRAHAM OR BRECKENRIDGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND CONTINUED ASCENT FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE LIFT FROM COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...CELL MERGERS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG STORM
OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN ALL AREAS.

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE PERIODS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AT BEST FROM A FAST MOVING PLAINS
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL
FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY APR 27...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

09/GP



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  82  61 /  50  50  40   5   5
WACO, TX              60  80  61  82  60 /  20  40  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  77  59  79  56 /  60  50  60   5   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  59  82  58 /  50  50  40   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  58  80  57 /  60  50  50   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  80  62  82  61 /  50  50  50   5   5
TERRELL, TX           60  79  60  81  58 /  40  50  60   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  61  81  60 /  30  40  60   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  81  58  82  58 /  40  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS AGREE FOR
THE MOST PART THAT THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD
NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

A STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...WITH ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING UP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND TRIGGER THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. ACTIVITY IS ALL ELEVATED...SO WINDS
NOT AN ISSUE. CIGS AND TIMING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE CHALLENGING
NEEDLESS TO SAY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AT THE AIRPORTS...WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER LIFT AND
MIXING CEASE FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOULD LIKELY START ABOVE
020...BUT THEN GO BELOW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY COOLS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND BECOME VFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTERING AFTER MIDDAY.

AN MCS IS PROGGED TO BE ON GOING WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER OK
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY SHOOT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES
ON FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT WHAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE LEFT THE VCTS MENTION
AT DFW METRO AIRPORTS AT 20Z MONDAY WITH OUTFLOW AND FORCING
ARRIVING AT WACO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AGAIN...COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO GO MORE THAN VCTS.

WILL INDICATE A WIND SHIFT INTO DFW AIRPORT IN THE 24-30 HR PERIOD
AROUND 02Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECT TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS AS
CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER WITH TIME.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. AT 3
PM...THE ACTIVITY WAS BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY WICHITA FALLS...
BRIDGEPORT AND ABILENE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY
NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS...BUT CHANCES ARE THAT ANY SUCH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DRASTICALLY BEFORE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS GRAHAM OR BRECKENRIDGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND CONTINUED ASCENT FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE LIFT FROM COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...CELL MERGERS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG STORM
OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN ALL AREAS.

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE PERIODS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AT BEST FROM A FAST MOVING PLAINS
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL
FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY APR 27...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

09/GP



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  82  61 /  50  50  40   5   5
WACO, TX              60  80  61  82  60 /  20  40  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  77  59  79  56 /  60  50  60   5   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  59  82  58 /  50  50  40   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  58  80  57 /  60  50  50   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  80  62  82  61 /  50  50  50   5   5
TERRELL, TX           60  79  60  81  58 /  40  50  60   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  61  81  60 /  30  40  60   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  81  58  82  58 /  40  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 202357
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
657 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

A STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...WITH ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING UP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND TRIGGER THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. ACTIVITY IS ALL ELEVATED...SO WINDS
NOT AN ISSUE. CIGS AND TIMING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE CHALLENGING
NEEDLESS TO SAY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AT THE AIRPORTS...WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER LIFT AND
MIXING CEASE FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOULD LIKELY START ABOVE
020...BUT THEN GO BELOW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY COOLS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND BECOME VFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTERING AFTER MIDDAY.

AN MCS IS PROGGED TO BE ON GOING WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER OK
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY SHOOT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES
ON FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT WHAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE LEFT THE VCTS MENTION
AT DFW METRO AIRPORTS AT 20Z MONDAY WITH OUTFLOW AND FORCING
ARRIVING AT WACO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AGAIN...COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO GO MORE THAN VCTS.

WILL INDICATE A WIND SHIFT INTO DFW AIRPORT IN THE 24-30 HR PERIOD
AROUND 02Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECT TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS AS
CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER WITH TIME.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. AT 3
PM...THE ACTIVITY WAS BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY WICHITA FALLS...
BRIDGEPORT AND ABILENE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY
NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS...BUT CHANCES ARE THAT ANY SUCH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DRASTICALLY BEFORE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS GRAHAM OR BRECKENRIDGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND CONTINUED ASCENT FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE LIFT FROM COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...CELL MERGERS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG STORM
OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN ALL AREAS.

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE PERIODS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AT BEST FROM A FAST MOVING PLAINS
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL
FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY APR 27...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

09/GP

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  82  61 /  50  50  40   5   5
WACO, TX              60  80  61  82  60 /  20  40  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  77  59  79  56 /  60  50  60   5   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  59  82  58 /  50  50  40   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  58  80  57 /  60  50  50   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  80  62  82  61 /  50  50  50   5   5
TERRELL, TX           60  79  60  81  58 /  40  50  60   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  61  81  60 /  30  40  60   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  81  58  82  58 /  40  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/09









000
FXUS64 KFWD 202033
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. AT 3
PM...THE ACTIVITY WAS BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY WICHITA FALLS...
BRIDGEPORT AND ABILENE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY
NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS...BUT CHANCES ARE THAT ANY SUCH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DRASTICALLY BEFORE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS GRAHAM OR BRECKENRIDGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND CONTINUED ASCENT FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE LIFT FROM COLD FRONT/WINDSHIFT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...CELL MERGERS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG STORM
OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN ALL AREAS.

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE PERIODS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AT BEST FROM A FAST MOVING PLAINS
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL
FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY APR 27...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

09/GP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  82  61 /  50  50  40   5   5
WACO, TX              60  80  61  82  60 /  20  40  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  77  59  79  56 /  60  50  60   5   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  59  82  58 /  50  50  40   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  58  80  57 /  60  50  50   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  80  62  82  61 /  50  50  50   5   5
TERRELL, TX           60  79  60  81  58 /  40  50  60   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  61  81  60 /  30  40  60   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  81  58  82  58 /  40  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201802 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY...
AND SOME OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE ONGOING
(ELEVATED) STORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH ON
THEIR NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY...THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT
METROPLEX TAF SITES.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL
MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF...BUT INTRODUCED
VCTS 20-00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF IMPACTS
WILL BE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING...
WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FIRST PERIOD. ONE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THAT PART OF
NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN. NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA...SO
THE CURRENT 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS REGION APPEAR ON TRACK.

OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN CLEBURNE...WACO...AND
LAMPASAS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE 30 TO 40 POPS WE HAVE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA APPEAR REASONABLE. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED. WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN AREAS NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...
STEPHENVILLE...AND COMANCHE THIS MORNING WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW 80 IN
THOSE AREAS.

ALL OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLY FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS ANY PART OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY MAY BE TIED TO HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL BE WHEN
THE STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT
SURVIVAL AS THEY MOVE EAST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

09/GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              78  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             80  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            79  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            79  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            77  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201559
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FIRST PERIOD. ONE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THAT PART OF
NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN. NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA...SO
THE CURRENT 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS REGION APPEAR ON TRACK.

OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN CLEBURNE...WACO...AND
LAMPASAS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE 30 TO 40 POPS WE HAVE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA APPEAR REASONABLE. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED. WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN AREAS NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...
STEPHENVILLE...AND COMANCHE THIS MORNING WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW 80 IN
THOSE AREAS.

ALL OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLY FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BE ELEVATED WITH
UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS ANY PART OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY MAY BE TIED TO HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL BE WHEN
THE STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT
SURVIVAL AS THEY MOVE EAST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

09/GP

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING SPIRALING OVER
NEW MEXICO WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SERIES
OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IT
SHOULD TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD ALLOW MORE OF AN EASTERLY
STORM MOTION...BRINGING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE METROPLEX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL INCLUDE
VCTS FOR THE 22-02Z TIMEFRAME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE TIMING
LATER AND POSSIBLY EVEN INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN LATER FORECASTS
IF FUTURE TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              78  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             80  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            79  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            79  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            77  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201132 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING SPIRALING OVER
NEW MEXICO WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SERIES
OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IT
SHOULD TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD ALLOW MORE OF AN EASTERLY
STORM MOTION...BRINGING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE METROPLEX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL INCLUDE
VCTS FOR THE 22-02Z TIMEFRAME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE TIMING
LATER AND POSSIBLY EVEN INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN LATER FORECASTS
IF FUTURE TRENDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              77  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             78  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            77  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            78  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           78  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200838
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO AS OF 0730Z /230 AM/. THIS WILL RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE BEING THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z /7 PM
CDT/ MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WITH CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STRONG
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  63  79  61  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
WACO, TX              77  60  80  61  82 /  30  20  40  30   5
PARIS, TX             78  60  75  59  79 /  20  50  50  40   5
DENTON, TX            77  62  77  58  80 /  40  40  50  30   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  62  76  59  80 /  30  40  50  30   0
DALLAS, TX            78  64  79  62  83 /  30  40  50  30   0
TERRELL, TX           78  62  78  60  81 /  20  30  50  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  61  80  62  82 /  30  20  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  61  83  59  82 /  50  40  50  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities