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000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS AT 0430Z WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY 15Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
EXPECT ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEREAFTER.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
WE/VE ADDED AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AND
PATCHY FROST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM ON SATURDAY. ONCE TEMPS FALL BELOW 38 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMMENCE. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BEFORE
DAYBREAK...THEN EXPOSED SURFACES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COLLECT FROST.
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY...THE FROST COULD BE HEAVIER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WITH
TEMPS TURNING WARMER ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS VERY
PROMISING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AND A STRONG
POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...POSSIBLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW PER THE
ECMWF...TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE ENDING AND SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SOME LAKE AND
RESERVOIRS LEVELS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF
POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS
CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT
AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE
IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM.
HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP.

MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING
US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30
POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60
TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A
DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT
WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES
AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN
ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE
STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF
OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND
TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING
A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY
PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST.  POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOETH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  57  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  60  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  61  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  62  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            37  64  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  65  42  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

58/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 010226 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
926 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WE/VE ADDED AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AND
PATCHY FROST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM ON SATURDAY. ONCE TEMPS FALL BELOW 38 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COMMENCE. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR BEFORE
DAYBREAK...THEN EXPOSED SURFACES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COLLECT FROST.
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY...THE FROST COULD BE HEAVIER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WITH
TEMPS TURNING WARMER ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS VERY
PROMISING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AND A STRONG
POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...POSSIBLY A CLOSED UPPER LOW PER THE
ECMWF...TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE ENDING AND SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SOME LAKE AND
RESERVOIRS LEVELS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF
POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS
CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT
AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE
IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM.
HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP.

MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING
US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30
POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60
TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A
DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT
WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES
AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN
ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE
STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF
OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND
TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING
A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY
PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST.  POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOETH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  57  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  60  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  61  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  62  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            37  64  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  65  42  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

 /75







000
FXUS64 KFWD 312313 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF
POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS
CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT
AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE
IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM.
HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP.

MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING
US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30
POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60
TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A
DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT
WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES
AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN
ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE
STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF
OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND
TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING
A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY
PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST.  POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOETH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  57  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  60  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  61  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  62  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            37  64  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  65  42  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

58/75









000
FXUS64 KFWD 312003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF
POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS
CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT
AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE
IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM.
HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP.

MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING
US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30
POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60
TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A
DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT
WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES
AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN
ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE
STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF
OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND
TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING
A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY
PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST.  POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOETH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
RESULTING NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CREATE A BIT OF A CROSSWIND ON
13/31 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KT
AROUND 01/00Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10
KT MID MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MS VALLEY.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  57  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  60  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  61  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  62  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            37  64  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  65  42  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311720
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
RESULTING NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CREATE A BIT OF A CROSSWIND ON
13/31 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KT
AROUND 01/00Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10
KT MID MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MS VALLEY.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOOKING AT 9AM
OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 8PM
THIS EVENING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE AT 9AM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING TUESDAY AS
THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AT LEAST 1 INCH AREA
WIDE. THE CHALLENGING PART IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND TUESDAY.

HOETH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25



&&
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311435
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOOKING AT 9AM
OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 8PM
THIS EVENING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE AT 9AM WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
STILL LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING TUESDAY AS
THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AT LEAST 1 INCH AREA
WIDE. THE CHALLENGING PART IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND TUESDAY.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

09/GP


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25



&&
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311144 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

09/GP

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

09/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310954 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY AS THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3-5 KFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

09/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310954 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

.LONG TERM...
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. IT
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...PASSING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL SURGE RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTH TEXAS...BENEATH DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES
WILL SOAR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. TRAINING ECHOES OF CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY MAY PRECEDE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...
AFTER WHICH ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NOW
THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY IN ITS PLACEMENT. BUT EVEN WITH THIS DISPARITY...THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A CUT-OFF ON DAY 5-6...HENCE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS YOU WILL EVER SEE THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING 70-80 ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL ANCHORING POINT OF THE
CUT-OFF...THE END OF THE RAIN EVENT MAY BE LATER IN THE WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY AS THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3-5 KFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

09/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310921
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY AS THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3-5 KFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310501 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY AS THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3-5 KFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS TREKKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT FIELDS. THE CURRENT LOCATION IS LIKELY FROM NEAR PARIS
TO DENTON TO ABILENE LINE AS OF 9 PM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE JUST TRIMMED
BACK THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TRENDS.
UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE IS FUNNELING IN TO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FOCUS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
I-35. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH EVEN SOME SUB 50 READINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE COOLER
TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM DFW NORTHWARD AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. AND WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AREA WIDE IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY CHILLIER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO A JACKET IS STILL
RECOMMENDED FOR THOSE WITH FRIDAY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND AREAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. IN FACT OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA HAVE ISSUED
FREEZE WATCHES FOR SATURDAY MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY FREEZE WATCHES OR FROST ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR DOES SEEM TO BE WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO A WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. REGARDLESS THERE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

THE END OF THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
GIVE US A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ON TUESDAY BUT RAIN COULD START AS EARLY
AS MONDAY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO FORM
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME
HEALTHY RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY AND CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE AREA WIDE ON AVERAGE. THIS TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
SURELY BE REFINED IN THE DAYS TO COME THOUGH SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS WE WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.

HOETH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  65  38  61  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  70  40  63  43 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  64  33  58  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  63  34  60  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  64  35  60  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            54  65  39  61  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  66  37  60  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  69  38  61  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  70  42  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  64  36  62  42 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310229 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS TREKKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING BUT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT FIELDS. THE CURRENT LOCATION IS LIKELY FROM NEAR PARIS
TO DENTON TO ABILENE LINE AS OF 9 PM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE JUST TRIMMED
BACK THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TRENDS.
UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ARE ALREADY CLEAR OF THE
RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KACT FROM 01-05Z. MAY HAVE TO AMEND
KACT TO VCTS BUT THINK THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.

THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NORTH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE IS FUNNELING IN TO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FOCUS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
I-35. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH EVEN SOME SUB 50 READINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE COOLER
TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM DFW NORTHWARD AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. AND WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AREA WIDE IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY CHILLIER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO A JACKET IS STILL
RECOMMENDED FOR THOSE WITH FRIDAY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND AREAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. IN FACT OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA HAVE ISSUED
FREEZE WATCHES FOR SATURDAY MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY FREEZE WATCHES OR FROST ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR DOES SEEM TO BE WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO A WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. REGARDLESS THERE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

THE END OF THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
GIVE US A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ON TUESDAY BUT RAIN COULD START AS EARLY
AS MONDAY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO FORM
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME
HEALTHY RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY AND CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE AREA WIDE ON AVERAGE. THIS TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
SURELY BE REFINED IN THE DAYS TO COME THOUGH SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS WE WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.

HOETH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  65  38  61  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  70  40  63  43 /  40   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  64  33  58  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  63  34  60  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  64  35  60  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            54  65  39  61  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  66  37  60  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  69  38  61  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  70  42  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  64  36  62  42 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 302323 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ARE ALREADY CLEAR OF THE
RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KACT FROM 01-05Z. MAY HAVE TO AMEND
KACT TO VCTS BUT THINK THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.

THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NORTH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE IS FUNNELING IN TO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FOCUS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
I-35. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH EVEN SOME SUB 50 READINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE COOLER
TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM DFW NORTHWARD AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. AND WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AREA WIDE IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY CHILLIER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO A JACKET IS STILL
RECOMMENDED FOR THOSE WITH FRIDAY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND AREAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. IN FACT OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA HAVE ISSUED
FREEZE WATCHES FOR SATURDAY MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY FREEZE WATCHES OR FROST ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR DOES SEEM TO BE WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO A WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. REGARDLESS THERE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

THE END OF THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
GIVE US A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ON TUESDAY BUT RAIN COULD START AS EARLY
AS MONDAY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO FORM
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME
HEALTHY RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY AND CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE AREA WIDE ON AVERAGE. THIS TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
SURELY BE REFINED IN THE DAYS TO COME THOUGH SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS WE WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.

HOETH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  65  38  61  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  70  40  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  64  33  58  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  63  34  60  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  64  35  60  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            54  65  39  61  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  66  37  60  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  69  38  61  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  70  42  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  64  36  62  42 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 302050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE IS FUNNELING IN TO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FOCUS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
I-35. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH EVEN SOME SUB 50 READINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE COOLER
TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FROM DFW NORTHWARD AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. AND WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH AREA WIDE IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY CHILLIER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO A JACKET IS STILL
RECOMMENDED FOR THOSE WITH FRIDAY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND AREAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. IN FACT OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA HAVE ISSUED
FREEZE WATCHES FOR SATURDAY MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY FREEZE WATCHES OR FROST ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR DOES SEEM TO BE WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO A WATCH OR ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. REGARDLESS THERE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE RED
RIVER SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

THE END OF THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
PROMISING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
GIVE US A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ON TUESDAY BUT RAIN COULD START AS EARLY
AS MONDAY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISCREPANCY IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO FORM
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND LEAVE RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME
HEALTHY RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY AND CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE AREA WIDE ON AVERAGE. THIS TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
SURELY BE REFINED IN THE DAYS TO COME THOUGH SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS WE WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FROM
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH METROPLEX AND WACO TERMINALS.

CONCERNING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIXING AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE WSW. HAVE RETAINED
VCSH BASED ON SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
TRENDS IN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT. DATA FROM THE MORNING WEATHER
BALLOON...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...AND IN-HOUSE THUNDERSTORM
PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLEMENTS OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SHOULD ARRIVE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND THE 23-00 UTC TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THINK THAT WE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO MIX
OVERNIGHT....BUT THE STIFF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS. STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTER
SUNRISE AND MIXING COMMENCES. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDOWN FRIDAY.

CONCERNING THE WACO TAF SITE...SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND A SUBTLE HIGH OVER THE PINEY WOODS SHOULD HELP TO BACK
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH. A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TRIES
TO BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE WEST OF THE WACO TAF SITE. 5-10 KNOT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AROUND 02-03 UTC. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR.

15-BAIN/30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  65  38  61  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              54  70  40  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  64  33  58  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  63  34  60  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  64  35  60  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            54  65  39  61  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           53  66  37  60  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  69  38  61  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  70  42  63  43 /  50   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  64  36  62  42 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301806
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FROM
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH METROPLEX AND WACO TERMINALS.

CONCERNING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIXING AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARDS THE WSW. HAVE RETAINED
VCSH BASED ON SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
TRENDS IN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT. DATA FROM THE MORNING WEATHER
BALLOON...RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...AND IN-HOUSE THUNDERSTORM
PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLEMENTS OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...SHOULD ARRIVE
ACROSS THE MEXTROPLEX AROUND THE 23-00 UTC TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THINK THAT WE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO MIX
OVERNIGHT....BUT THE STIFF PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS. STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTER
SUNRISE AND MIXING COMMENCES. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDOWN FRIDAY.

CONCERNING THE WACO TAF SITE...SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND A SUBTLE HIGH OVER THE PINEY WOODS SHOULD HELP TO BACK
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH. A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TRIES
TO BUILD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDER WILL BE WEST OF THE WACO TAF SITE. 5-10 KNOT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AROUND 02-03 UTC. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR.

15-BAIN/30

&&

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

HOETH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.

COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.

05/



&&

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  53  66  40  62 /  30  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              79  53  70  40  64 /   5  30   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  46  63  34  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            78  48  65  36  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  50  65  34  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  55  67  40  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  52  67  38  62 /  10  20   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  54  69  40  62 /   5  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  54  71  41  64 /   5  40   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  48  67  36  63 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
946 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FROM MCKINNEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO MINERAL WELLS AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX. LEFT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND THE MOST
FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER THE WACO AND KILLEEN AREAS AND AREAS
WEST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS COMANCHE. HAVE LEFT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS AT 40 PERCENT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS HAVING A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AND WE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
THINKING THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.

CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.

COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.

05/



&&

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  53  66  40  62 /  30  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              79  53  70  40  64 /   5  30   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  46  63  34  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            78  48  65  36  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  50  65  34  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  55  67  40  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  52  67  38  62 /  10  20   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  54  69  40  62 /   5  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  54  71  41  64 /   5  40   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  48  67  36  63 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORM POTENTIAL...WIND SHIFT.

CLOUD COVER...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DISCERNIBLE BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. FLOW WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE IS
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FROM REACHING WACO. HOWEVER...
VEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MEAN SOME VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...DURING THE HANDFUL OF HOURS PRECEDING FROPA. SKIES
SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

STORM POTENTIAL...
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE METROPLEX. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY AMONG SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONTAL TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...EVEN IF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

WIND SHIFT...
SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER 10KTS. UNLESS CONVECTION
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE EVENTUAL
VEERING TO THE NORTH WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.

COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.

05/

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  53  66  40  62 /  30  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              79  53  70  40  64 /   5  30   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  46  63  34  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            78  48  65  36  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  50  65  34  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  55  67  40  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  52  67  38  62 /  10  20   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  54  69  40  62 /   5  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  54  71  41  64 /   5  40   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  48  67  36  63 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300919
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSS THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.15-1.3 INCHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SIGNALING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS
FROM THE DFW METRO SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE
GFS AND HRRR ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS AND KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ISOLATED...WHILE THE ECMWF/VARIOUS WRF MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WHILE THE SREF/NAM12 MODELS THE WETTEST. ALL THESE
VARIABLE SOLUTIONS CREATED QUITE A QUANDARY FOR FORECASTING RAIN
CHANCES LATER TODAY AND HOW MUCH TO RAMP THEM UP.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE DECISION
AGREED UPON WAS TO RAISE POPS...BUT STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF/WRF PROJECTIONS. MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE...BUT IS NOT OVERLY RICH WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FEELING WAS THAT THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING TRAILING FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO RAISE AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. INSTABILITY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS MAY LEND TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OF THE GENERAL VARIETY.

COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIGIN OF THIS NEXT AIRMASS IS OUT OF NORTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CHILLY. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
OR THOSE HEADING TO AREA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES. NEVERTHELESS...
TEMPERATURES BY NIGHTFALL WILL BE IN THE 50S AND WILL FALL READILY
INTO THE MID- UPPER 40S BY LATE EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...SO
BRINGING A LIGHT COAT OR JACKET IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FROST ON THE PUMPKINS
ACROSS RURAL AREAS NORTH OF I-20...AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL WELL
INTO THE 30S. ANY EXTENT OF FROST WILL REALLY DEPEND ON ANY NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT MAY BE PRESENT. MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND MAKE SURE OUTDOOR PETS ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROUND OF
COLDER AIR. A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY INTO THE 60S...DESPITE
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE U.S. WEST COAST
WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY.
WE EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. MODELS
NOW HAVE THIS SYSTEM MORE OF AN OPEN AND DEEP WAVE THIS RUN VERSUS
BEING CUT OFF ON RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THOUGH MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...
WE DO EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO EJECT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP FROM AN OLD
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE PLAN TO CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO WIDELY DIVERGE
ON HOW THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT IS HANDLED. THE GFS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CUTS IT OFF AND DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA WET INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT THE
GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS TO BETTER RESOLVE THINGS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS RIGHT AROUND
31/00Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. AT THIS TIME WONT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAF BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT WACO AND POINTS WEST OF THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  53  66  40  62 /  30  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              79  53  70  40  64 /   5  30   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  46  63  34  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            78  48  65  36  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  50  65  34  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  55  67  40  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  52  67  38  62 /  10  20   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  54  69  40  62 /   5  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  54  71  41  64 /   5  40   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  48  67  36  63 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300450 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS RIGHT AROUND
31/00Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. AT THIS TIME WONT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAF BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT WACO AND POINTS WEST OF THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MORNING. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH. FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...LONGER
NIGHTS...AND LIGHT WINDS ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 EXCEPT
IN THE DFW METROPLEX...AND ISOLATED COLD PRONE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A (DARE I SAY IT?) BRIEF FREEZE. I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY ADD TO THE QPF TOTALS. TODAY THE ECMWF TAPS
INTO THAT MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT MORE
TOWARDS COASTAL TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD A GOOD SURGE WHILE
THE ECMWF KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. AS OF NOW...I FEEL
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
THE AREA...BUT HAVE NO CONFIDENCE YET IN HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL
OCCUR IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  78  53  66  40 /   0  10  10   0   0
WACO, TX              52  79  53  69  42 /   5   5  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  73  46  63  36 /   5  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  77  48  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  76  50  65  38 /   0  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            55  78  55  67  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  77  52  67  39 /   5  10  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  77  54  68  40 /   5   5  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  54  70  44 /  10   5  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  80  48  67  37 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300450 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS RIGHT AROUND
31/00Z. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. AT THIS TIME WONT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAF BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AT WACO AND POINTS WEST OF THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MORNING. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH. FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...LONGER
NIGHTS...AND LIGHT WINDS ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 EXCEPT
IN THE DFW METROPLEX...AND ISOLATED COLD PRONE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A (DARE I SAY IT?) BRIEF FREEZE. I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY ADD TO THE QPF TOTALS. TODAY THE ECMWF TAPS
INTO THAT MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT MORE
TOWARDS COASTAL TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD A GOOD SURGE WHILE
THE ECMWF KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. AS OF NOW...I FEEL
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
THE AREA...BUT HAVE NO CONFIDENCE YET IN HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL
OCCUR IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  78  53  66  40 /   0  10  10   0   0
WACO, TX              52  79  53  69  42 /   5   5  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  73  46  63  36 /   5  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  77  48  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  76  50  65  38 /   0  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            55  78  55  67  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  77  52  67  39 /   5  10  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  77  54  68  40 /   5   5  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  54  70  44 /  10   5  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  80  48  67  37 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 300231 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
931 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
/LESS THAN 8 KTS/ UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 0Z ON FRIDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING.

AJS


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MORNING. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH. FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...LONGER
NIGHTS...AND LIGHT WINDS ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 EXCEPT
IN THE DFW METROPLEX...AND ISOLATED COLD PRONE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A (DARE I SAY IT?) BRIEF FREEZE. I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY ADD TO THE QPF TOTALS. TODAY THE ECMWF TAPS
INTO THAT MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT MORE
TOWARDS COASTAL TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD A GOOD SURGE WHILE
THE ECMWF KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. AS OF NOW...I FEEL
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
THE AREA...BUT HAVE NO CONFIDENCE YET IN HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL
OCCUR IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  78  53  66  40 /   0  10  10   0   0
WACO, TX              52  79  53  69  42 /   5   5  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  73  46  63  36 /   5  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  77  48  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  76  50  65  38 /   0  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            55  78  55  67  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  77  52  67  39 /   5  10  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  77  54  68  40 /   5   5  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  54  70  44 /  10   5  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  80  48  67  37 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

91/58










000
FXUS64 KFWD 292339
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
/LESS THAN 8 KTS/ UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 0Z ON FRIDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MORNING. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH. FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...LONGER
NIGHTS...AND LIGHT WINDS ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 EXCEPT
IN THE DFW METROPLEX...AND ISOLATED COLD PRONE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A (DARE I SAY IT?) BRIEF FREEZE. I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY ADD TO THE QPF TOTALS. TODAY THE ECMWF TAPS
INTO THAT MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT MORE
TOWARDS COASTAL TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD A GOOD SURGE WHILE
THE ECMWF KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. AS OF NOW...I FEEL
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
THE AREA...BUT HAVE NO CONFIDENCE YET IN HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL
OCCUR IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  78  53  66  40 /   0  10  10   0   0
WACO, TX              52  79  53  69  42 /   5   5  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  73  46  63  36 /   5  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  77  48  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  76  50  65  38 /   0  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            55  78  55  67  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  77  52  67  39 /   5  10  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  77  54  68  40 /   5   5  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  54  70  44 /  10   5  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  80  48  67  37 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 292002
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MORNING. THIS WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER ON SOUTH. FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...LONGER
NIGHTS...AND LIGHT WINDS ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 EXCEPT
IN THE DFW METROPLEX...AND ISOLATED COLD PRONE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
SEE A (DARE I SAY IT?) BRIEF FREEZE. I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY ADD TO THE QPF TOTALS. TODAY THE ECMWF TAPS
INTO THAT MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT MORE
TOWARDS COASTAL TEXAS. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD A GOOD SURGE WHILE
THE ECMWF KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. AS OF NOW...I FEEL
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOME DECENT RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
THE AREA...BUT HAVE NO CONFIDENCE YET IN HIGHER TOTALS WHICH WILL
OCCUR IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE AT THE
METROPLEX OR WACO TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 7KFT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WNW AND NW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN SPEED.

FOR THE WACO TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NE-
ENE BREEZES. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE AS WELL.

15-BAIN




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  78  53  66  40 /   0  10  10   0   0
WACO, TX              52  79  53  69  42 /   5   5  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  73  46  63  36 /   5  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            49  77  48  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  76  50  65  38 /   0  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            55  78  55  67  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           50  77  52  67  39 /   5  10  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         52  77  54  68  40 /   5   5  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  54  70  44 /  10   5  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  80  48  67  37 /   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 291756
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE AT THE
METROPLEX OR WACO TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH CLEAR SKIES. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 7KFT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WNW AND NW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN SPEED.

FOR THE WACO TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NE-
ENE BREEZES. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE AS WELL.

15-BAIN



&&

.UPDATE...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY THIS MORNING WITH A VERY
PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO CLEAR
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.

15-BAIN



&&


.SHORT TERM/LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND/...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LINGERING FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE 60S THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT BEFORE
WASHING OUT CLOSE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
READILY WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS SHORTWAVE. WE HAVE RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-35 WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.15 INCHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE GENERAL VARIETY AS
INSTABILITY WILL MARGINAL.

IT APPEARS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH
BREEZE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL DETACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM GETS PULLED NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE DETAILS WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL GO BELOW THE HIGH MODEL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

05/

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF ONE OF THE EARLIEST WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. ON OCTOBER 29 OF 1993...A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATED IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SNOW FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO...BUT
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MELTED AS IT FELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  54  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
WACO, TX              79  54  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  20   0
PARIS, TX             73  47  74  49  65 /   5   5  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            75  48  79  49  66 /   0   0  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  47  77  50  67 /   5   0  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  56  79  55  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           76  52  77  52  70 /   5   5  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  53  78  53  70 /  10   5   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  56  80  53  73 /  20  10   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  50  80  48  68 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 291503
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1003 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY THIS MORNING WITH A VERY
PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND SKY TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO CLEAR
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.

15-BAIN



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR CEILINGS EARLY. SOUTH WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.

VFR CEILINGS ARE NOW SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. THE BACK EDGE WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF WACO BY MIDDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 850MB
INVADES CENTRAL TEXAS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE METROPLEX. THE PUSH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN SOUTH
FLOW...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY.

25


&&




.SHORT TERM/LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND/...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LINGERING FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE 60S THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT BEFORE
WASHING OUT CLOSE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
READILY WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS SHORTWAVE. WE HAVE RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-35 WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.15 INCHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE GENERAL VARIETY AS
INSTABILITY WILL MARGINAL.

IT APPEARS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH
BREEZE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL DETACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM GETS PULLED NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE DETAILS WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL GO BELOW THE HIGH MODEL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

05/

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF ONE OF THE EARLIEST WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. ON OCTOBER 29 OF 1993...A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATED IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SNOW FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO...BUT
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MELTED AS IT FELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  54  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
WACO, TX              79  54  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  20   0
PARIS, TX             73  47  74  49  65 /   5   5  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            75  48  79  49  66 /   0   0  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  47  77  50  67 /   5   0  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  56  79  55  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           76  52  77  52  70 /   5   5  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  53  78  53  70 /  10   5   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  56  80  53  73 /  20  10   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  50  80  48  68 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 291148 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR CEILINGS EARLY. SOUTH WINDS RETURN TONIGHT.

VFR CEILINGS ARE NOW SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. THE BACK EDGE WILL
SLIP SOUTH OF WACO BY MIDDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 850MB
INVADES CENTRAL TEXAS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE METROPLEX. THE PUSH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN SOUTH
FLOW...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF ONE OF THE EARLIEST WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. ON OCTOBER 29 OF 1993...A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATED IN THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SNOW FELL AS FAR SOUTH AS WACO...BUT
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MELTED AS IT FELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM/LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND/...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LINGERING FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE 60S THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT BEFORE
WASHING OUT CLOSE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
READILY WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS SHORTWAVE. WE HAVE RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-35 WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.15 INCHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE GENERAL VARIETY AS
INSTABILITY WILL MARGINAL.

IT APPEARS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH
BREEZE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL DETACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM GETS PULLED NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE DETAILS WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL GO BELOW THE HIGH MODEL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  54  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
WACO, TX              79  54  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  20   0
PARIS, TX             73  47  74  49  65 /   5   5  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            75  48  79  49  66 /   0   0  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  47  77  50  67 /   5   0  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  56  79  55  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           76  52  77  52  70 /   5   5  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  53  78  53  70 /  10   5   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  56  80  53  73 /  20  10   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  50  80  48  68 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 290849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM/LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND/...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH LINGERING FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE WEAK CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. WE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL INTO
THE 50S WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND IN THE 60S THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT BEFORE
WASHING OUT CLOSE TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
READILY WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 50S ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS SHORTWAVE. WE HAVE RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-35 WHERE RICHER MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.15 INCHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE GENERAL VARIETY AS
INSTABILITY WILL MARGINAL.

IT APPEARS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF CANADIAN AIR AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH
BREEZE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE SETS UP IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM/NEXT WEEK/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY WILL DETACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. A CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FETCH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
PROVIDE GOOD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM GETS PULLED NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE AREA.
WE ANTICIPATE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE DETAILS WITH THIS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL GO BELOW THE HIGH MODEL RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10KTS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF SCT/BKN CIGS
AROUND 5000FT FROM WACO NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE SCT/BKN CIGS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  54  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10   0
WACO, TX              79  54  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  20   0
PARIS, TX             73  47  74  49  65 /   5   5  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            75  48  79  49  66 /   0   0  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  47  77  50  67 /   5   0  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77  56  79  55  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           76  52  77  52  70 /   5   5  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  53  78  53  70 /  10   5   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            78  56  80  53  73 /  20  10   5  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  50  80  48  68 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05







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