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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

LITTLE CHANGE FROM TRENDS EXPECTED EARLIER AT 00Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME DOWN INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS SLOWLY
COOL TOWARD THE DEW POINT VALUES. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED AS WELL AS THIS OCCURS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SLOW RISE BACK INTO MVFR
AFTER MIDDAY IS EXPECTED. LIGHT E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH 850MB...LIKELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO
THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. GRADUAL COOLING/INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE WILL ADD THESE ELEMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210511 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

LITTLE CHANGE FROM TRENDS EXPECTED EARLIER AT 00Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME DOWN INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS SLOWLY
COOL TOWARD THE DEW POINT VALUES. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED AS WELL AS THIS OCCURS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING AT
LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SLOW RISE BACK INTO MVFR
AFTER MIDDAY IS EXPECTED. LIGHT E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH 850MB...LIKELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO
THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. GRADUAL COOLING/INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE WILL ADD THESE ELEMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210141
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH 850MB...LIKELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO
THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. GRADUAL COOLING/INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE WILL ADD THESE ELEMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
/00Z TAF/

SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
RUC/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A SHALLOW COOL SURFACE RIDGE. MOST MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE CIGS GO ABOVE 020 BEFORE TANKING
BACK INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK WITH IFR VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH IFR AND INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DID NOT ADD PATCHY -DZ AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY JUST YET WITH WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...THOUGH IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

LIGHT EAST WINDS 3-5 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210141
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH 850MB...LIKELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO
THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. GRADUAL COOLING/INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE WILL ADD THESE ELEMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING GRIDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
/00Z TAF/

SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
RUC/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A SHALLOW COOL SURFACE RIDGE. MOST MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE CIGS GO ABOVE 020 BEFORE TANKING
BACK INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK WITH IFR VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH IFR AND INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DID NOT ADD PATCHY -DZ AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY JUST YET WITH WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...THOUGH IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

LIGHT EAST WINDS 3-5 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 202334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
RUC/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A SHALLOW COOL SURFACE RIDGE. MOST MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE CIGS GO ABOVE 020 BEFORE TANKING
BACK INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK WITH IFR VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH IFR AND INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DID NOT ADD PATCHY -DZ AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY JUST YET WITH WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...THOUGH IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

LIGHT EAST WINDS 3-5 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

...QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/66






000
FXUS64 KFWD 202334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
RUC/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A SHALLOW COOL SURFACE RIDGE. MOST MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE CIGS GO ABOVE 020 BEFORE TANKING
BACK INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK WITH IFR VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH IFR AND INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DID NOT ADD PATCHY -DZ AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY JUST YET WITH WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...THOUGH IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

LIGHT EAST WINDS 3-5 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

...QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/66







000
FXUS64 KFWD 202150
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VSBY TRENDS...TIMING SWITCH TO SOUTH FLOW.

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
AT MIDDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS PROLONGED THE DRIZZLE AND IFR CEILINGS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOP 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNLIKELY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAFS.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
TOO LATE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A STOUT INVERSION. THE
SURFACE LAYER WILL SATURATE AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. SUCH A SCENARIO SUGGESTS LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL OVC005
FOR 9 HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...THE
INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...RESULTING IN A 4TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH A PLODDING TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201814 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VSBY TRENDS...TIMING SWITCH TO SOUTH FLOW.

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
AT MIDDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS PROLONGED THE DRIZZLE AND IFR CEILINGS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOP 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNLIKELY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAFS.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
TOO LATE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A STOUT INVERSION. THE
SURFACE LAYER WILL SATURATE AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. SUCH A SCENARIO SUGGESTS LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL OVC005
FOR 9 HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...THE
INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...RESULTING IN A 4TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH A PLODDING TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...DUE MAINLY TO DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NO EXPECTATION
OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TODAY...TONIGHT...OR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              51  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             48  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            45  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           48  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201814 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VSBY TRENDS...TIMING SWITCH TO SOUTH FLOW.

PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
AT MIDDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS PROLONGED THE DRIZZLE AND IFR CEILINGS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY TOP 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNLIKELY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANOTHER LINE IN THE TAFS.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS...ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
TOO LATE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A STOUT INVERSION. THE
SURFACE LAYER WILL SATURATE AGAIN...RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. SUCH A SCENARIO SUGGESTS LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL OVC005
FOR 9 HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...THE
INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...RESULTING IN A 4TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH A PLODDING TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...DUE MAINLY TO DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NO EXPECTATION
OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TODAY...TONIGHT...OR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

BRADSHAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              51  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             48  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            45  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           48  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201638
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...DUE MAINLY TO DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NO EXPECTATION
OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TODAY...TONIGHT...OR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 551 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CONCERNS...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
AFTER 07Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
OF 1130Z AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT EAST BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CEILINGS 20/21Z THROUGH 21/03Z
PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM 16Z THROUGH 07Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY 08Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              51  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             48  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            45  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           48  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201638
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...DUE MAINLY TO DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 925-850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FORCING...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NO EXPECTATION
OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TODAY...TONIGHT...OR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 551 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
CONCERNS...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
AFTER 07Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
OF 1130Z AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT EAST BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CEILINGS 20/21Z THROUGH 21/03Z
PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM 16Z THROUGH 07Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY 08Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              51  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             48  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            45  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          48  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           48  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201151 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
AFTER 07Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
OF 1130Z AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT EAST BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CEILINGS 20/21Z THROUGH 21/03Z
PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM 16Z THROUGH 07Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY 08Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              53  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            51  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         53  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201151 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
AFTER 07Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
OF 1130Z AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT EAST BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CEILINGS 20/21Z THROUGH 21/03Z
PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM 16Z THROUGH 07Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY 08Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              53  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            51  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         53  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS OF 11 PM CST. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A BREAK OUT INTO
LOWER END VFR DURING THE 20/18Z THROUGH 21/03Z PERIOD. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 17-18Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              53  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            51  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         53  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS OF 11 PM CST. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A BREAK OUT INTO
LOWER END VFR DURING THE 20/18Z THROUGH 21/03Z PERIOD. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 17-18Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              53  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            51  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         53  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200540 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS OF 11 PM CST. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A BREAK OUT INTO
LOWER END VFR DURING THE 20/18Z THROUGH 21/03Z PERIOD. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 17-18Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200540 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS OF 11 PM CST. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A BREAK OUT INTO
LOWER END VFR DURING THE 20/18Z THROUGH 21/03Z PERIOD. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 17-18Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/30








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200023 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/81






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200023 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/81







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192105
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 192105
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191541
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191541
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 191240
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84







000
FXUS64 KFWD 191154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84








000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181838 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  45  50  41  52 /  10  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              52  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            47  43  49  39  52 /  10  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  43  49  40  51 /  10  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            49  46  50  42  53 /  10  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           48  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  48  50  43  54 /  10  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  49  51  43  56 /  10  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  43  49  37  52 /  10  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/99






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181838 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  45  50  41  52 /  10  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              52  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            47  43  49  39  52 /  10  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  43  49  40  51 /  10  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            49  46  50  42  53 /  10  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           48  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  48  50  43  54 /  10  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  49  51  43  56 /  10  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  43  49  37  52 /  10  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/99







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD
HAS ERODED...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY
KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE SOUPY. EXPECT A CIG/VIS LIFT TODAY...BUT
WITH SUN AT ITS LOWEST ANGLES OF THE YEAR IT WILL NOT BE MORE
THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO AND ALSO WILL NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THEN IT`S BACK TO IFR/LIFR. OF INTEREST IN THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THEY
BRING THE FRIDAY MORNING SHORT WAVE PRECIP A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR KDFW. 84


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  45  50  41  52 /  10  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              52  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            47  43  49  39  52 /  10  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  43  49  40  51 /  10  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            49  46  50  42  53 /  10  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           48  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  48  50  43  54 /  10  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  49  51  43  56 /  10  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  43  49  37  52 /  10  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 529 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD
HAS ERODED...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY
KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE SOUPY. EXPECT A CIG/VIS LIFT TODAY...BUT
WITH SUN AT ITS LOWEST ANGLES OF THE YEAR IT WILL NOT BE MORE
THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO AND ALSO WILL NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THEN IT`S BACK TO IFR/LIFR. OF INTEREST IN THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THEY
BRING THE FRIDAY MORNING SHORT WAVE PRECIP A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR KDFW. 84


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  45  50  41  52 /  10  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              52  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            47  43  49  39  52 /  10  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  43  49  40  51 /  10  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            49  46  50  42  53 /  10  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           48  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  48  50  43  54 /  10  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  49  51  43  56 /  10  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  43  49  37  52 /  10  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181129
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD
HAS ERODED...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY
KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE SOUPY. EXPECT A CIG/VIS LIFT TODAY...BUT
WITH SUN AT ITS LOWEST ANGLES OF THE YEAR IT WILL NOT BE MORE
THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO AND ALSO WILL NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THEN IT`S BACK TO IFR/LIFR. OF INTEREST IN THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THEY
BRING THE FRIDAY MORNING SHORT WAVE PRECIP A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR KDFW. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  45  50  41  52 /   5  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              61  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             49  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            54  43  49  39  52 /   5  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          53  43  49  40  51 /   5  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            56  46  50  42  53 /   5  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           55  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  48  50  43  54 /  20  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  49  51  43  56 /  20  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  43  49  37  52 /   5  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181129
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD
HAS ERODED...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY
KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE SOUPY. EXPECT A CIG/VIS LIFT TODAY...BUT
WITH SUN AT ITS LOWEST ANGLES OF THE YEAR IT WILL NOT BE MORE
THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO AND ALSO WILL NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THEN IT`S BACK TO IFR/LIFR. OF INTEREST IN THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THEY
BRING THE FRIDAY MORNING SHORT WAVE PRECIP A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR KDFW. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  45  50  41  52 /   5  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              61  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             49  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            54  43  49  39  52 /   5  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          53  43  49  40  51 /   5  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            56  46  50  42  53 /   5  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           55  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  48  50  43  54 /  20  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  49  51  43  56 /  20  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  43  49  37  52 /   5  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180956
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

MOIST AIR RAISING OVER COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSURE THAT
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS FORECAST.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RETURNING TO IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 19/00Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST.

KACT WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18/09Z THEN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR
CONDITIONS 19/00 TO 19/03Z THEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.     75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  45  50  41  52 /   5  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              61  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             49  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            54  43  49  39  52 /   5  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          53  43  49  40  51 /   5  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            56  46  50  42  53 /   5  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           55  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  48  50  43  54 /  20  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  49  51  43  56 /  20  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  43  49  37  52 /   5  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







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