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000
FXUS64 KFWD 240055 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH KDAL...KDFW...KGKY THROUGH 02Z. 88D KFWS SHOWING SOME
SPEEDS TO 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST-EAST...BUT WOULD EXPECT
25-35 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 / 100  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  40  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  30  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  40  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  40  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 232318 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLD-SCT TSRA OVER PARTS OF THE METROPLEX AND OUTFLOW
WINDS THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS PARKED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW WAS DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOUTHWARD OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD REACH SOME OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS BETWEEN
1-3Z. GUSTY WINDS BOTH WITH AND BEHIND THE STORMS COULD INCREASE
WINDS AT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY 03020G30KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

ONCE THE STORMS DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY LATER THIS EVENING...IT
WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST LATE.    75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 /  40  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  30  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 232318 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLD-SCT TSRA OVER PARTS OF THE METROPLEX AND OUTFLOW
WINDS THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS PARKED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW WAS DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SOUTHWARD OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD REACH SOME OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS BETWEEN
1-3Z. GUSTY WINDS BOTH WITH AND BEHIND THE STORMS COULD INCREASE
WINDS AT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY 03020G30KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

ONCE THE STORMS DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY LATER THIS EVENING...IT
WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST LATE.    75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 /  40  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  30  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 /  30  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  30  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

82/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 231943
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 /  30  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  30  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

82/30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231736 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WE
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT THESE STORMS
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...BUT MAY STILL
AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231736 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WE
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT THESE STORMS
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...BUT MAY STILL
AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 231447
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WE
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT THESE STORMS
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...BUT MAY STILL
AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231447
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDEX VALUES
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WE
EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT THESE STORMS
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...BUT MAY STILL
AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230958
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KFWD 230958
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230445 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230445 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230022 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230022 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE DOME LEANS FROM COLORADO
AT 20KFT TO NEAR EL PASO AT 40KFT. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL HELP GUIDE A COLD FRONT...NOW
IN KANSAS...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE VERY UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHALLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE RED RIVER
LATE IN THE DAY. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INVADE TEXAS...IT
WOULD BE NEAR NIGHTFALL. THE CELLS WOULD BE FAR FROM THEIR INITIAL
FORCING MECHANISM...AND WITH INSUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
UPDRAFTS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING THEM TO AN
END. ANY IMPACTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE
INITIATION MUCH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER...IF NOT WITHIN TEXAS...
WHICH WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MILD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE TYPICAL EVOLUTION OF
WEAK FRONTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS
UNLIKELY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH
DEPARTURES AND NORTHEAST ARRIVALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KFWD 222012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS
ARE WIND DIRECTION AT AREA AIRPORTS...AND THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DFW TAF.

WITH REGARDS TO THE WIND DIRECTION...THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IDENTIFIED AN ANTICYCLONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER CHILDRESS...TX. THIS CAUSED 850 MB WINDS TO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HRS. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY WEAK TO NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ALLOWING THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS
FROM ALOFT TO LARGELY DETERMINE THE VECTOR OF THE SURFACE WINDS.

AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY HAVE MORE OR LESS MIRRORED THE 850 MB WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABLY WILL HOLD ON TO A EAST
OR NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR WIND DIRECTION ALOFT TO
STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE SURFACE WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY FAVORS A SOUTHEAST WIND...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.

WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE BY 6 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROBABLY AFTER SUNSET. LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE END OF THE
DFW TAF FOR NOW BECAUSE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO COME IN AFTER THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING
AIRPORTS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A VERY NON-TRADITIONAL STORM MOTION FOR THIS
AREA...AND IS SOMETHING THAT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF
FOR FLIGHT PLANNING AND RADAR MONITOR PURPOSES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221841
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS
ARE WIND DIRECTION AT AREA AIRPORTS...AND THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DFW TAF.

WITH REGARDS TO THE WIND DIRECTION...THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IDENTIFIED AN ANTICYCLONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER CHILDRESS...TX. THIS CAUSED 850 MB WINDS TO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HRS. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY WEAK TO NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ALLOWING THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS
FROM ALOFT TO LARGELY DETERMINE THE VECTOR OF THE SURFACE WINDS.

AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY HAVE MORE OR LESS MIRRORED THE 850 MB WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABLY WILL HOLD ON TO A EAST
OR NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR WIND DIRECTION ALOFT TO
STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE SURFACE WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY FAVORS A SOUTHEAST WIND...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.

WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE BY 6 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROBABLY AFTER SUNSET. LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE END OF THE
DFW TAF FOR NOW BECAUSE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO COME IN AFTER THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING
AIRPORTS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A VERY NON-TRADITIONAL STORM MOTION FOR THIS
AREA...AND IS SOMETHING THAT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF
FOR FLIGHT PLANNING AND RADAR MONITOR PURPOSES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.


&&

.UPDATE...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HUMID THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD AT LEAST FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE AND
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  99  78  99  78 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              72  98  72  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             70  96  73  97  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            72  97  72  99  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  97  73  99  75 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            77  98  79  99  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           73  98  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  97  74  98  75 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  98  71  99  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72 100  72 100  73 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221841
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS
ARE WIND DIRECTION AT AREA AIRPORTS...AND THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DFW TAF.

WITH REGARDS TO THE WIND DIRECTION...THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IDENTIFIED AN ANTICYCLONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER CHILDRESS...TX. THIS CAUSED 850 MB WINDS TO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HRS. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY WEAK TO NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ALLOWING THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS
FROM ALOFT TO LARGELY DETERMINE THE VECTOR OF THE SURFACE WINDS.

AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY HAVE MORE OR LESS MIRRORED THE 850 MB WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABLY WILL HOLD ON TO A EAST
OR NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR WIND DIRECTION ALOFT TO
STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE SURFACE WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY FAVORS A SOUTHEAST WIND...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.

WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE BY 6 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROBABLY AFTER SUNSET. LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE END OF THE
DFW TAF FOR NOW BECAUSE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO COME IN AFTER THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING
AIRPORTS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A VERY NON-TRADITIONAL STORM MOTION FOR THIS
AREA...AND IS SOMETHING THAT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF
FOR FLIGHT PLANNING AND RADAR MONITOR PURPOSES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.


&&

.UPDATE...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HUMID THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD AT LEAST FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE AND
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  99  78  99  78 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              72  98  72  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             70  96  73  97  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            72  97  72  99  73 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  97  73  99  75 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            77  98  79  99  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           73  98  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  97  74  98  75 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  98  71  99  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72 100  72 100  73 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221540 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HUMID THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD AT LEAST FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE AND
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 557 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

THICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
BUT THIS WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 5 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED MAINLY EAST OF
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AROUND 5 MILES IN THE METROPLEX...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE THIS. AS OF NOW...LOW STRATUS IS
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS BUT THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING. THINK THAT THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR EAST OF I-35 BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221540 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HUMID THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW AND MID 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD AT LEAST FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE AND
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 557 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

THICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
BUT THIS WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 5 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED MAINLY EAST OF
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AROUND 5 MILES IN THE METROPLEX...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE THIS. AS OF NOW...LOW STRATUS IS
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS BUT THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING. THINK THAT THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR EAST OF I-35 BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221057 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

THICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
BUT THIS WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 5 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED MAINLY EAST OF
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AROUND 5 MILES IN THE METROPLEX...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE THIS. AS OF NOW...LOW STRATUS IS
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS BUT THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING. THINK THAT THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR EAST OF I-35 BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221057 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

THICK CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
BUT THIS WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 5 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED MAINLY EAST OF
THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AROUND 5 MILES IN THE METROPLEX...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE THIS. AS OF NOW...LOW STRATUS IS
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS BUT THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING. THINK THAT THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR EAST OF I-35 BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 220849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220849
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
GAINING STRENGTH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ALSO OF INTEREST IS
A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE. 850MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO NEAR MOBILE. LATEST SATELLITE ACTUALLY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH BEGINS ACROSS THE PALESTINE
AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST WHERE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
SHOULD HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIMITED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND HOT FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS WITH JUST A SLOW DAILY WARMING
TREND. ALSO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THROUGH THE OZARKS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SET OFF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH 30KT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SOME QPF OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE BEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-35 AND THIS IS WHERE 20 POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 FOR MORE LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
FURTHER WARMING OF LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA BY
THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY...AND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE A BIT MORE IN 8 OR 9 DAYS...BUT NO PROMISES AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  76  99  78  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              97  72  98  72  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  70  96  73  97 /   5   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            96  72  97  72  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          96  71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  79  99 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           96  73  98  74  99 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         95  72  97  74  98 /   5   5  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            97  72  98  71  99 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220524 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220524 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAS SENT A
CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL CLUTTER SKIES INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO
OPERATIONS AT ANY NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORT.

FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER (1000-2000FT AGL) AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY. A SCATTERED CU FIELD...WITH BASES CLIMBING FROM 3000FT
TO 6000FT...IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z NAM MOS
FOR WACO...WHICH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR. THE LATEST RAP
PERFECT PROGS STILL KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF
TROPICAL STRATUS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THOUGH THE WESTERN
EDGE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TAF SITES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...
EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE
06Z PACKAGE...BUT SCATTERED DECKS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THE 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220241 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 220241 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE JUST MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR ON-GOING TRENDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220004 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220004 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

AS THE SUN SETS...THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FEW OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
(1000-2000FT AGL) NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH MID-
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LOOK UNLIKELY.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONFOUNDED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-70S DURING JULY...BUT THE 00Z NAM SUNDAY EVENING DID KEY
ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THE CURRENT MOS OUTPUT
IS VFR FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RAP PERFECT PROGS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LAYER OF TROPICAL STRATUS WOULD BE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
POTENTIAL STRATUS SCENARIO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF THE LAYER TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TAF SITES...NOT ON THE ADVECTION OF
UPSTREAM STRATUS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD VEER THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS UPSTREAM...EFFECTIVELY CLOSING OFF THE GULF FROM
ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND...WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADVECTION...IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MESOSCALE OUTPUT THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NEEDING TO INTRODUCE CEILINGS WITH THE 03Z AMENDMENTS OR 06Z
ROUTINE TAFS.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KFWD 212011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KFWD 211750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY GONE
BY NOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY GONE
BY NOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211606
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY GONE
BY NOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1200 FEET
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW SITES OVER THE
LAST HOUR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 211606
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS IS ERODING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY GONE
BY NOON...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1200 FEET
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW SITES OVER THE
LAST HOUR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211121 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1200 FEET
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW SITES OVER THE
LAST HOUR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211121 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1200 FEET
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT A FEW SITES OVER THE
LAST HOUR. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210840
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENETERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA 10-11Z MONDAY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED BKN020 FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD...WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR
BKN012 FOR THE 11-14Z PERIOD. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
12-13Z...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A CEILING...BUT WILL
PLACE A SCT020 STARTING AT 12Z. IF THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE METROPLEX...THEY SHOULD LIFT AND START TO SCATTER AROUND 16Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210840
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUNDAY EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
GAINING STRENGTH AND WAS CENETERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN CENTERED NW OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THIS MEANS THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. BUT BECAUSE
WE ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...WE WILL HAVE EPISODES OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS A HOT AND MAINLY DRY ONE FOR OUR REGION.

AFTER SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF...GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S EAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARGINALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SEND A PIECE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY SOUTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OVER
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IF THIS CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO A MCS. THIS IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM AND SOME SREF MEMBERS ARE INDICATING...
AND THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PV MAX AND PERHAPS AN OLD
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...AND THUS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AND THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION
AND PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS WAS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND...BUT THE ECMWF MOS
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED STAY CLOSE TO ECMWF
MOS GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR
1.5 INCHES...LIKELY A SIGN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING ABOUT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING BACK NORTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS AND ANOTHER LOW OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA 10-11Z MONDAY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED BKN020 FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD...WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR
BKN012 FOR THE 11-14Z PERIOD. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
12-13Z...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A CEILING...BUT WILL
PLACE A SCT020 STARTING AT 12Z. IF THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE METROPLEX...THEY SHOULD LIFT AND START TO SCATTER AROUND 16Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  78  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              96  74  98  74  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             91  70  95  72  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            96  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  98  73  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  97  75  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  98  73  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  99  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 210442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA 10-11Z MONDAY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED BKN020 FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD...WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR
BKN012 FOR THE 11-14Z PERIOD. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
12-13Z...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A CEILING...BUT WILL
PLACE A SCT020 STARTING AT 12Z. IF THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE METROPLEX...THEY SHOULD LIFT AND START TO SCATTER AROUND 16Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN UPDATING THE HOURLY GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO TWEAK THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIODS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WACO AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE UNTIL MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A PLUME OF LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA OF 70S AND GREATER DEW POINTS
WERE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
SINCE SCATTERED OUT ALLOWING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE
GROUND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SUNSHINE
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 2 PM CDT WHICH IS THE WARMEST WE HAVE BEEN SINCE
WEDNESDAY OF LAST WEEK. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE MUCH WARMER THAN WE
HAVE BEEN IN A FEW DAYS...2 PM TEMPERATURES WERE STILL RUNNING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MOST AREA
HEAT INDICES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A
TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.

ANYTIME WE HOLD ON TO A 70 DEG F DEW POINT IN THE SUMMER DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
USUALLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT
FEELS WARM AND HUMID OUTSIDE...OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO ZERO. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING
FROM THE DFW AREA SHOWS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS LOCATED ON TOP OF OUR NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. EVEN IF
WE WERE TO LIFT THE WARM MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR BUOYANT ASCENT. ALSO...THERE IS A
VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THAT WOULD REQUIRE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES TO OVERCOME WITHOUT COOLING THE CAP ITSELF.
AS A RESULT...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.

IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON ITS OUTER PERIPHERY. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER MOVING TO THE NORTH WHILE THE OTHER
WAS LOCATED OVER THE OK/AR BORDER MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE
UPPER TROUGHS...COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK ARE THE
MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST A BIT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...WITH THE RIDGE PROGGED TO GET
STRONGER...WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT IN THE 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SETTING OFF A
STORM OR TWO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES HOLDING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS OF
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY...VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OK/AR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AL/MS GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING...HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NV/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...OR SOME REMNANTS
OF IT AT LEAST...MERGE WITH THE STALLED OUT TROUGH OVER THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TOWARDS NORTH TX.

THIS TROUGH EVOLUTION/MERGER WAS ANALYZED BY FOLLOWING THESE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAP. THE UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) RESERVOIRS IN EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE
CORRELATED WITH DIPS OR VALLEYS ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE. THAT
MEANS THAT WHEREVER THESE DIPS ON THE TROPOPAUSE ARE...DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH THEM THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY COOLER THAN IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE TROPOSPHERE UNDER THESE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HAS LESS THICKNESS THAN IN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TO THE WEST...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. I JUST WANTED TO
POINT THIS OUT BECAUSE THIS IS BASICALLY THE OPPOSITE BEHAVIOR
FROM WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGHS ON WEATHER
MAPS/FORECAST MODELS.

SO IN OUR CASE...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV BLOB APPROACHING NORTH
TEXAS FROM THE EAST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH/BLOB SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ASSUMING THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
TROUGH IS SUFFICIENT TO LIFT AND COOL THE CAP IN PLACE...WE
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THAT EVENING
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. THE 20/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS
BOTH INDICATE THAT THIS RETROGRADING PATTERN OCCURS IN CONCERT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...THE RETROGRADING UPPER
TROUGH COULD HELP DRAG SOME OF THE RELATIVELY COOLER LOW-LEVEL
AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM
OF A "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT.

IF A COLD FRONT DOES PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WITH THE
RETROGRADING TROUGH...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE
20/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS. WITHOUT A FRONT TO HELP
ORGANIZE CONVECTION...THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT POPS IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...BUT DID EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
WEST TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS FAR FETCHED
AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WERE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES...ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KTS. THAT IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESULTS IN BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 40 KTS WHICH IS BORDERLINE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO MULTI-CELL AND ELEVATED STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY...ASSUMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS FOR THE CWA
OCCURS AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY.

LEFT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN STORMS MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST THAN IS HAS BEEN
LOOKING AT MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ASSUMING STORMS PAN
OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...IF NOT A STALLED OUT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OVER THE CWA THAT MAY SET OFF ISOLATED STORMS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OF COURSE IF STORMS DO NOT PAN OUT AT ALL
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...OUR CHANCES OF
STORMS ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE LOW. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY ASSUMING WE WOULD AT LEAST HAVE SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORMS THAT WILL SLOW
DOWN HEATING A BIT...IF ONLY FOR A DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THEN PUSH EAST ALONG THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ROCKIES...AND AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REORIENT THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ASSUMING A WEAK RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THESE SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAYS IN THE
7 DAY FORECAST AND CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 103
DEGREE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THAT VERIFYING AS SOME OF THE
12Z MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS SO
FAR REMOVED FROM THE CWA...THE FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT
HERE...SO JUST MAINTAINED A HOT AND DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES ON MONDAY...IT COULD PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAKE IT EASIER FOR COOLER AIR TO INVADE THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THIS STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS HEADED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              74  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  91  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            70  95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          69  95  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            74  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  95  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA 10-11Z MONDAY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED BKN020 FOR THE 10-16Z PERIOD...WITH A TEMPO 5SM BR
BKN012 FOR THE 11-14Z PERIOD. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
12-13Z...THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A CEILING...BUT WILL
PLACE A SCT020 STARTING AT 12Z. IF THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE METROPLEX...THEY SHOULD LIFT AND START TO SCATTER AROUND 16Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN UPDATING THE HOURLY GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE NEED TO TWEAK THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIODS.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WACO AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE RULE UNTIL MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A PLUME OF LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA OF 70S AND GREATER DEW POINTS
WERE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
SINCE SCATTERED OUT ALLOWING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE
GROUND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SUNSHINE
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 2 PM CDT WHICH IS THE WARMEST WE HAVE BEEN SINCE
WEDNESDAY OF LAST WEEK. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE MUCH WARMER THAN WE
HAVE BEEN IN A FEW DAYS...2 PM TEMPERATURES WERE STILL RUNNING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MOST AREA
HEAT INDICES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A
TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.

ANYTIME WE HOLD ON TO A 70 DEG F DEW POINT IN THE SUMMER DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
USUALLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT
FEELS WARM AND HUMID OUTSIDE...OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO ZERO. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING
FROM THE DFW AREA SHOWS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS LOCATED ON TOP OF OUR NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. EVEN IF
WE WERE TO LIFT THE WARM MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR BUOYANT ASCENT. ALSO...THERE IS A
VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THAT WOULD REQUIRE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES TO OVERCOME WITHOUT COOLING THE CAP ITSELF.
AS A RESULT...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.

IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON ITS OUTER PERIPHERY. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER MOVING TO THE NORTH WHILE THE OTHER
WAS LOCATED OVER THE OK/AR BORDER MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE
UPPER TROUGHS...COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK ARE THE
MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...IN GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST A BIT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...WITH THE RIDGE PROGGED TO GET
STRONGER...WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT IN THE 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SETTING OFF A
STORM OR TWO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES HOLDING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS OF
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY...VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FORECAST FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OK/AR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AL/MS GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING...HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NV/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...OR SOME REMNANTS
OF IT AT LEAST...MERGE WITH THE STALLED OUT TROUGH OVER THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TOWARDS NORTH TX.

THIS TROUGH EVOLUTION/MERGER WAS ANALYZED BY FOLLOWING THESE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAP. THE UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) RESERVOIRS IN EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE
CORRELATED WITH DIPS OR VALLEYS ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE. THAT
MEANS THAT WHEREVER THESE DIPS ON THE TROPOPAUSE ARE...DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH THEM THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY COOLER THAN IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE TROPOSPHERE UNDER THESE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HAS LESS THICKNESS THAN IN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TO THE WEST...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. I JUST WANTED TO
POINT THIS OUT BECAUSE THIS IS BASICALLY THE OPPOSITE BEHAVIOR
FROM WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGHS ON WEATHER
MAPS/FORECAST MODELS.

SO IN OUR CASE...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV BLOB APPROACHING NORTH
TEXAS FROM THE EAST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH/BLOB SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ASSUMING THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
TROUGH IS SUFFICIENT TO LIFT AND COOL THE CAP IN PLACE...WE
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THAT EVENING
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. THE 20/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS
BOTH INDICATE THAT THIS RETROGRADING PATTERN OCCURS IN CONCERT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...THE RETROGRADING UPPER
TROUGH COULD HELP DRAG SOME OF THE RELATIVELY COOLER LOW-LEVEL
AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM
OF A "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT.

IF A COLD FRONT DOES PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA WITH THE
RETROGRADING TROUGH...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE
20/12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS. WITHOUT A FRONT TO HELP
ORGANIZE CONVECTION...THINK THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST...SO KEPT POPS IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW...BUT DID EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
WEST TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS FAR FETCHED
AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WERE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES...ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KTS. THAT IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESULTS IN BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 40 KTS WHICH IS BORDERLINE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO MULTI-CELL AND ELEVATED STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY...ASSUMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS FOR THE CWA
OCCURS AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY.

LEFT 20 POPS IN ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN STORMS MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST THAN IS HAS BEEN
LOOKING AT MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ASSUMING STORMS PAN
OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...IF NOT A STALLED OUT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OVER THE CWA THAT MAY SET OFF ISOLATED STORMS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OF COURSE IF STORMS DO NOT PAN OUT AT ALL
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...OUR CHANCES OF
STORMS ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE LOW. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON THURSDAY ASSUMING WE WOULD AT LEAST HAVE SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORMS THAT WILL SLOW
DOWN HEATING A BIT...IF ONLY FOR A DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THEN PUSH EAST ALONG THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ROCKIES...AND AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REORIENT THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ASSUMING A WEAK RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THESE SHOULD BE OUR HOTTEST DAYS IN THE
7 DAY FORECAST AND CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 103
DEGREE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THAT VERIFYING AS SOME OF THE
12Z MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS SO
FAR REMOVED FROM THE CWA...THE FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT
HERE...SO JUST MAINTAINED A HOT AND DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER IF THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES ON MONDAY...IT COULD PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAKE IT EASIER FOR COOLER AIR TO INVADE THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THIS STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS HEADED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  96  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              74  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  91  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            70  95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          69  95  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            74  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  95  74  98  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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