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000
FXUS64 KFWD 020430
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDESCRIMINANTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020430
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDESCRIMINANTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...AND WE WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER
ALL BUT THE AFW AND FTW AIRPORTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TUESDAY AND WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE TUESDAY/S CONDITIONS TO BECOME QUITE AS GUSTY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 012025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 06Z AND INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX
BEFORE 12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP BY 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND BY 17Z AT WACO. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY 18-23Z...AND AGAIN
BY 17Z TUESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011710 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 06Z AND INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX
BEFORE 12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP BY 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND BY 17Z AT WACO. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY 18-23Z...AND AGAIN
BY 17Z TUESDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT/CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER...SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH PRIMARILY DUE TO ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE DIRECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF OUR UPPER RIDGE...A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CALLING DISTURBANCE 1...WHICH THEY INDICATE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z FWD
RAOB OBSERVED AN 850 MB DEW POINT OF 15 DEG C...WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS INDICATIVE OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION...THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY MID-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND MOVE IT BACK OVER
LAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES BECOME AT
LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALTER THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO CHANGE THE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE REGION FROM DRY/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MOIST
/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.

THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOST MODELS SEND A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF COAST UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE CERTAINLY SEEMS
TO IMPROVE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR STORMS IS LIFT. DESPITE THE SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED 20 POPS OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO KILLEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SOME FORM OF LIFT BECOMES OBVIOUS IN
LATER FORECASTS... POPS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY FROM MONDAY...SIMPLY WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE HEATING A BIT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT...LEFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY
FOR NOW DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WORK AWAY AT THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN...FAVORING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A LOT OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM...OR
A DIFFERENT PATH...WILL CHANGE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WE HOLD
ON TO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...IF WE GET PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THIS MAY LEAVE BOUNDARIES OR A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEHIND THAT LEADS TO SOME LOCALIZED LIFT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS
FOR A DRY FORECAST...SO MAINTAINED THAT IN OUR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...SO IN A LARGE SCALE SENSE THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THE MODELS THAT BRING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DO NOT DO SO WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS IS ALWAYS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY SENDING
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT WILL ACTUALLY TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM THAT THE MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING HERE WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

THE MAIN REASON FOR OPTIMISM IS THAT THE MODELS SINK THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AFTER 48 HOURS OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS
HAPPENING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. IF STORMS
REALLY ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW CAN HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
WOULD TRAVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONE.
BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA DO SO WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE IF MCS
ACTIVITY REALLY IS THE MECHANISM THAT SENDS THE FRONT SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL NOT KNOW IF IT`S LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL THURSDAY
OR SO WHEN WE CAN WATCH FOR PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  76  96  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  92 /   5   5  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  76  95  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  76  94  75  94 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           95  76  96  75  95 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  95  74  95 /   5   5  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  96  75  96 /   5   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  96  75  96 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92









000
FXUS64 KFWD 011710 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 06Z AND INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX
BEFORE 12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP BY 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND BY 17Z AT WACO. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY 18-23Z...AND AGAIN
BY 17Z TUESDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT/CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER...SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH PRIMARILY DUE TO ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE DIRECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF OUR UPPER RIDGE...A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CALLING DISTURBANCE 1...WHICH THEY INDICATE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z FWD
RAOB OBSERVED AN 850 MB DEW POINT OF 15 DEG C...WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS INDICATIVE OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION...THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY MID-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND MOVE IT BACK OVER
LAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES BECOME AT
LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALTER THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO CHANGE THE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE REGION FROM DRY/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MOIST
/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.

THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOST MODELS SEND A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF COAST UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE CERTAINLY SEEMS
TO IMPROVE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR STORMS IS LIFT. DESPITE THE SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED 20 POPS OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO KILLEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SOME FORM OF LIFT BECOMES OBVIOUS IN
LATER FORECASTS... POPS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY FROM MONDAY...SIMPLY WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE HEATING A BIT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT...LEFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY
FOR NOW DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WORK AWAY AT THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN...FAVORING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A LOT OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM...OR
A DIFFERENT PATH...WILL CHANGE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WE HOLD
ON TO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...IF WE GET PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THIS MAY LEAVE BOUNDARIES OR A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEHIND THAT LEADS TO SOME LOCALIZED LIFT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS
FOR A DRY FORECAST...SO MAINTAINED THAT IN OUR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...SO IN A LARGE SCALE SENSE THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THE MODELS THAT BRING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DO NOT DO SO WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS IS ALWAYS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY SENDING
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT WILL ACTUALLY TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM THAT THE MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING HERE WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

THE MAIN REASON FOR OPTIMISM IS THAT THE MODELS SINK THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AFTER 48 HOURS OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS
HAPPENING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. IF STORMS
REALLY ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW CAN HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
WOULD TRAVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONE.
BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA DO SO WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE IF MCS
ACTIVITY REALLY IS THE MECHANISM THAT SENDS THE FRONT SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL NOT KNOW IF IT`S LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL THURSDAY
OR SO WHEN WE CAN WATCH FOR PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  76  96  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  92 /   5   5  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  76  95  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  76  94  75  94 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           95  76  96  75  95 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  95  74  95 /   5   5  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  96  75  96 /   5   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  96  75  96 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92










000
FXUS64 KFWD 011128 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

MVFR STRATUS SURGED NORTH OVERNIGHT BUT IS NOW LOCATED MAINLY EAST
OF THE TAF AIRPORTS. KDAL AND KACT MAY SEE PERIODS OF BKN CIGS
THROUGH 14-15Z BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN VFR CATEGORY. WILL TEMPO FOR BKN020 AT KDAL AND KACT FROM
12-14Z. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KDFW...KAFW...KFTW...AND KGKY.

EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 13-18 KTS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT/CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER...SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH PRIMARILY DUE TO ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE DIRECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF OUR UPPER RIDGE...A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CALLING DISTURBANCE 1...WHICH THEY INDICATE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z FWD
RAOB OBSERVED AN 850 MB DEW POINT OF 15 DEG C...WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS INDICATIVE OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION...THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY MID-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND MOVE IT BACK OVER
LAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES BECOME AT
LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALTER THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO CHANGE THE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE REGION FROM DRY/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MOIST
/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.

THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOST MODELS SEND A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF COAST UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE CERTAINLY SEEMS
TO IMPROVE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR STORMS IS LIFT. DESPITE THE SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED 20 POPS OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO KILLEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SOME FORM OF LIFT BECOMES OBVIOUS IN
LATER FORECASTS... POPS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY FROM MONDAY...SIMPLY WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE HEATING A BIT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT...LEFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY
FOR NOW DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WORK AWAY AT THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN...FAVORING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A LOT OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM...OR
A DIFFERENT PATH...WILL CHANGE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WE HOLD
ON TO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...IF WE GET PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THIS MAY LEAVE BOUNDARIES OR A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEHIND THAT LEADS TO SOME LOCALIZED LIFT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS
FOR A DRY FORECAST...SO MAINTAINED THAT IN OUR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...SO IN A LARGE SCALE SENSE THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THE MODELS THAT BRING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DO NOT DO SO WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS IS ALWAYS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY SENDING
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT WILL ACTUALLY TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM THAT THE MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING HERE WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

THE MAIN REASON FOR OPTIMISM IS THAT THE MODELS SINK THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AFTER 48 HOURS OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS
HAPPENING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. IF STORMS
REALLY ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW CAN HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
WOULD TRAVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONE.
BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA DO SO WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE IF MCS
ACTIVITY REALLY IS THE MECHANISM THAT SENDS THE FRONT SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL NOT KNOW IF IT`S LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL THURSDAY
OR SO WHEN WE CAN WATCH FOR PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  76  96  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  92 /   5   5  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  76  95  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  76  94  75  94 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           95  76  96  75  95 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  95  74  95 /   5   5  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  96  75  96 /   5   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  96  75  96 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/69







000
FXUS64 KFWD 010837
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT/CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDER...SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH PRIMARILY DUE TO ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE DIRECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF OUR UPPER RIDGE...A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ALONG THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CALLING DISTURBANCE 1...WHICH THEY INDICATE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD AS WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z FWD
RAOB OBSERVED AN 850 MB DEW POINT OF 15 DEG C...WHILE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS INDICATIVE OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION...THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DRY MID-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND MOVE IT BACK OVER
LAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES BECOME AT
LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALTER THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO CHANGE THE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE REGION FROM DRY/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MOIST
/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.

THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOST MODELS SEND A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF COAST UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE CERTAINLY SEEMS
TO IMPROVE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MAIN INGREDIENT MISSING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR STORMS IS LIFT. DESPITE THE SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED 20 POPS OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO KILLEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SOME FORM OF LIFT BECOMES OBVIOUS IN
LATER FORECASTS... POPS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AND EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY FROM MONDAY...SIMPLY WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO SLOW DOWN
THE HEATING A BIT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT...LEFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY
FOR NOW DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT...SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WORK AWAY AT THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN...FAVORING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A LOT OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEM...OR
A DIFFERENT PATH...WILL CHANGE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WE HOLD
ON TO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...IF WE GET PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THIS MAY LEAVE BOUNDARIES OR A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEHIND THAT LEADS TO SOME LOCALIZED LIFT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS
FOR A DRY FORECAST...SO MAINTAINED THAT IN OUR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...SO IN A LARGE SCALE SENSE THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THE MODELS THAT BRING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DO NOT DO SO WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS IS ALWAYS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY SENDING
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT WILL ACTUALLY TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM THAT THE MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING HERE WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER.

THE MAIN REASON FOR OPTIMISM IS THAT THE MODELS SINK THE COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AFTER 48 HOURS OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS
HAPPENING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. IF STORMS
REALLY ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW CAN HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
WOULD TRAVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONE.
BECAUSE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA DO SO WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE IF MCS
ACTIVITY REALLY IS THE MECHANISM THAT SENDS THE FRONT SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL NOT KNOW IF IT`S LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL THURSDAY
OR SO WHEN WE CAN WATCH FOR PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND NEW BRAUNFELS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REACH WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z AND THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 FT INITIALLY BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND
MID MORNING MONDAY ONCE VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING STARTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN JUST BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY AND CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN A SOUTH WIND IN THE 12
TO 16 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              97  76  96  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  92 /   5   5  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            96  76  95  76  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  76  94  75  94 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            96  77  96  77  96 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           95  76  96  75  95 /   5   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  95  74  95 /   5   5  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  96  75  96 /   5   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  96  75  96 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 010431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND NEW BRAUNFELS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REACH WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z AND THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 FT INITIALLY BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND
MID MORNING MONDAY ONCE VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING STARTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN JUST BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY AND CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN A SOUTH WIND IN THE 12
TO 16 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 010431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND NEW BRAUNFELS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REACH WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z AND THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 FT INITIALLY BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND
MID MORNING MONDAY ONCE VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING STARTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN JUST BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY AND CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN A SOUTH WIND IN THE 12
TO 16 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /   5   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312341
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE WACO AREA. THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND THIS SHOULD MERELY SUPPLEMENT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS THE NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS TEXAS. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LIKELY THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT GOOD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DECENT SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WILL INDICATE MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /  10   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /  10   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312341
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH EARLIER APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE WACO AREA. THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND THIS SHOULD MERELY SUPPLEMENT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS THE NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS TEXAS. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LIKELY THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT GOOD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DECENT SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WILL INDICATE MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /  10   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /  10   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 312020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORNING MVFR STRATUS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT KDAL
FROM 14-17Z WHERE CHANCE IS BEST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT.

FOR WACO...CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A REPEAT
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /  20   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /  20   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THUS HAVE LEFT 20 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE.

LABOR DAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE PLACED SOME 10 PERCENT POPS WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S...BUT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS COMING WEEK KEEPING THE REGION SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD. HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ITS
GRIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORNING MVFR STRATUS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT KDAL
FROM 14-17Z WHERE CHANCE IS BEST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT.

FOR WACO...CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A REPEAT
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75  97  76  96  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  98  75  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  95  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  97  78  97  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  95  77  95  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  77  96  75 /  20   5   5  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  96  73 /  20   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311746
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORNING MVFR STRATUS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT KDAL
FROM 14-17Z WHERE CHANCE IS BEST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT.

FOR WACO...CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A REPEAT
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON
LINE AS OF 1115 AM...HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311746
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORNING MVFR STRATUS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT KDAL
FROM 14-17Z WHERE CHANCE IS BEST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT.

FOR WACO...CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. A REPEAT
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON
LINE AS OF 1115 AM...HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 311627 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON
LINE AS OF 1115 AM...HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 311627 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO CANTON
LINE AS OF 1115 AM...HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310822
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310822
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
SHEAR AXIS DRAPED SOUTH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A SECOND...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST
AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THAT YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOOK. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS EVIDENT MOVING TO THE EAST ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...EVIDENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST
OVER THE REGION.

ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THERE WAS STILL EVIDENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...A TUTT LOW WAS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA. EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THERE WAS
EVIDENCE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF BELIZE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TODAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED BUILDING EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...OR APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO WACO TO KILLEEN. THESE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE TX GULF COAST. THIS WEAKNESS IS ILL DEFINED...AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY LIFT FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FROM WORKING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY.
WITHOUT SUBSIDENCE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...WITH HEATING/BUOYANCY PROVIDING THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...SO SIMPLY LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE A BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH PULLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLORADO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS OF 15 MPH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH "COOL" AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND BELOW 100...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. IN GENERAL THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE FROM TAKING CONTROL OF THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTH PLAINS WILL KEEP LEE
SIDE TROUGHING IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EACH DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL
LIKE IT...THIS WIND DIRECTION REPRESENTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION EACH DAY. IT`S STILL LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER
SUNSHINE...SO IT WILL FEEL HOT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS MAY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS INTRUSIONS FROM
THE GULF COAST EACH DAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EACH DAY. ANY CLOUD
COVER WILL WORK TO OFFSET SOME OF THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
EACH DAY.

THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SOME MODELS AMPLIFY
THIS FEATURE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH HAS THE
INDIRECT IMPACT OF SENDING A GOOD SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS
PANS OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MID-
WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ACTIVELY MONITORING
THIS FEATURE AND THEIR DISCUSSION MENTIONS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT BECOMING A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST MID-WEEK TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION EARLY
IN THE WEEK AHEAD.

THE FINAL FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT MAY JUST BE A NON-FACTOR
IN OUR FORECAST. HOWEVER IF A DEPRESSION DOES TAKE SHAPE...IT
COULD DEFLECT THIS TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING SOME BETTER
LIFT FOR STORMS OVER TEXAS IF IT MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  96  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              97  74  97  77  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  74  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            96  74  95  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  94  76  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            96  76  96  78  95 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           95  74  95  76  96 /  10  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  75  96  75  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  96  76  95 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  97  75  96 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310427
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /   5  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /   5  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /   0  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /   5  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /   5  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310427
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND
12Z SUNDAY AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES ABOUT AN HOUR LATER.
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT WILL BE BRIEF...ESPECIALLY AT THE
METRO TERMINALS...AND SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER BY 16Z. ONLY
SCATTERED CU ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /   5  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /   5  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /   0  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /   5  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /   5  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU
THROUGH SUNSET AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY TEMPORARILY
AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SINCE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A BIT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE
BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF FTW AND AFW. ALL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING AND SCATTERED
CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 4 AND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /  10  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 310000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU
THROUGH SUNSET AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY TEMPORARILY
AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. SINCE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A BIT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE
BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF FTW AND AFW. ALL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING AND SCATTERED
CU WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 4 AND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /  10  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 302052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WHILE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE
THE BRUNT OF TODAY/S CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS
OVERHEAD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
1.5 INCH PWATS...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS TEMPTATION TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BUT AS ALWAYS WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF HIGHER COVERAGE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST WE WOULD
AMEND TO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH MID DAY AT KDAL
BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING SHORTLY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /  10  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 302052
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY HAVE STARTED TO LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE LAST HOUR AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWN BURSTS...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WE MAY SEE
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WHILE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE
THE BRUNT OF TODAY/S CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS
OVERHEAD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
1.5 INCH PWATS...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS TEMPTATION TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BUT AS ALWAYS WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF HIGHER COVERAGE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST WE WOULD
AMEND TO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH MID DAY AT KDAL
BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING SHORTLY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  77  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  93  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  95  74  95  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  96  78  97  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  95  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  75  96  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  74  97  76 /  10  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 301722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WHILE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE
THE BRUNT OF TODAY/S CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS
OVERHEAD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
1.5 INCH PWATS...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS TEMPTATION TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BUT AS ALWAYS WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF HIGHER COVERAGE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST WE WOULD
AMEND TO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH MID DAY AT KDAL
BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING SHORTLY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE NEARLY
DISSIPATED. WE DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM SO WE LEFT
THE 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WHILE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE
THE BRUNT OF TODAY/S CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS
OVERHEAD AND ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
1.5 INCH PWATS...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS TEMPTATION TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT DUE TO
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BUT AS ALWAYS WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF HIGHER COVERAGE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST WE WOULD
AMEND TO INCLUDE A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH MID DAY AT KDAL
BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING SHORTLY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE NEARLY
DISSIPATED. WE DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM SO WE LEFT
THE 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 301502 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE NEARLY
DISSIPATED. WE DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM SO WE LEFT
THE 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH ONLY
THE OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW AREAS OF FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY
AT 5 MILES OR GREATER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THAT ANY ONE
STORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST
WITHOUT MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THROUGH THE DAY.


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 301502 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE NEARLY
DISSIPATED. WE DID AN UPDATE EARLIER TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM SO WE LEFT
THE 20 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH ONLY
THE OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW AREAS OF FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY
AT 5 MILES OR GREATER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THAT ANY ONE
STORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST
WITHOUT MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THROUGH THE DAY.


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 301151
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH ONLY
THE OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW AREAS OF FOG...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY
AT 5 MILES OR GREATER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THAT ANY ONE
STORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST
WITHOUT MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THROUGH THE DAY.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/69






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300908
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS
RESULT OF A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE AND
TIME FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 16Z. THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES SHOULD SEE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 3000
FT FROM ABOUT 11Z UNTIL 16Z.

A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 300908
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z/3AM. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THIS SECOND
TROUGH ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS THIS FEATURE WAS MASKED BY
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH EXITING THE REGION TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OBSERVED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WHICH ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. OTHERWISE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL
WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW. THE FWD
00Z RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
THE 525 MB LEVEL YESTERDAY EVENING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THIS
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL ACCUS WILL NOT RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH NO COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ACTIVITY TO GRAB
RAOB DATA FROM RECENTLY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ELEVATED CAP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WENT AHEAD
AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE THIS MORNING WITH A 10 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT LIFT HAS COOLED/REMOVED THIS ELEVATED CAP THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE 12Z RAOB IS IN...OR AFTER WE GET SOME MORNING AIR TRAFFIC
PROCESSED THROUGH DFW AND DAL...WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TODAY IS
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WAY TO
TRACK THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT BE TO LOOK FOR
500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. OUTSIDE OF LOOKING AT A DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE MAP...IT`S JUST NOT THAT EASY TO FIND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
LINE UP WELL WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

00Z RAOBS AND EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER EAST TX AND THE TX GULF COAST...WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OBSERVED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE
WILL BE GETTING THE BEST LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
MOST LACKING...AND WE WILL HAVE MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL FORCING WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND JUST EXPANDED
THE 20 POPS WE HAD OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY.

BECAUSE LIFT AND MOISTURE DO NOT LINE UP WELL...THINK THAT
WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
UPON PEAK HEATING/BUOYANCY AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM...
LEADING TO A MORE CHAOTIC DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED FREE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...SO CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS DEVELOPING IS HIGH...DESPITE THE EXPECTATIONS THAT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNBURSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ASIDE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS GOING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IS FOR ZONAL FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE
MODELS HOLD ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FEATURE HOLDING IN PLACE...BUT THE
REST OF THE CWA SEEMINGLY DOMINATED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSEST TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND HOLD ON TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO SOME UNORGANIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
WEAK CAPPING OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO BUILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE TX/LA GULF
COAST...BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REGION...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE POPS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY WAY THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ALONG THE TX/LA
GULF COAST IS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED IS THROUGH DAILY PERSISTENT
AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THAT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO PLACE THESE POPS BACK IN. BECAUSE THE GFS MAINTAINS
THIS FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH MADE MORE
CONCEPTUAL SENSE AT THIS POINT.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
NOT SUPER STRONG...AND WE MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME MORNING
STRATUS INTRUSIONS...AND AN AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A BIG HEAT WAVE FROM
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS
RESULT OF A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE AND
TIME FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN WACO BETWEEN 10 AND 16Z. THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES SHOULD SEE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 3000
FT FROM ABOUT 11Z UNTIL 16Z.

A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  97 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             88  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  95  76  96 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  95  77  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           93  74  94  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  94  75  96 /  20  10  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            94  73  95  75  97 /  20  10  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  73  96  75  97 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







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