Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KFWD 201653
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
NORTHWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500
AND 2500 FT WILL MOST LIKELY REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z
THURSDAY.


79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201653
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
NORTHWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500
AND 2500 FT WILL MOST LIKELY REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z
THURSDAY.


79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201155 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT WACO THIS MORNING...THEN ALL SITES
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CONCERNS.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER THIS A.M. A 30 KT+ LLJ TO THE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF DFW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LEAVE VCSH OUT FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS STREAMING
NORTH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
WACO BY MID MORNING AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLJ BETWEEN 30-40 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION MVFR
AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL TIMING BECOMES
BETTER DEFINE. I WILL ADVERTISE MVFR CIGS INTO WACO RIGHT BEFORE
SUNRISE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201155 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT WACO THIS MORNING...THEN ALL SITES
THURSDAY MORNING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CONCERNS.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER THIS A.M. A 30 KT+ LLJ TO THE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF DFW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LEAVE VCSH OUT FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS STREAMING
NORTH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
WACO BY MID MORNING AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLJ BETWEEN 30-40 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION MVFR
AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL TIMING BECOMES
BETTER DEFINE. I WILL ADVERTISE MVFR CIGS INTO WACO RIGHT BEFORE
SUNRISE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200919
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST WITH CIGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 12-16G26 KNOTS EARLIER THIS EVENING AFTER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER...EXPECT SPEEDS TO COME
DOWN AFTER 06 OR 07Z AND AVERAGE AROUND 12 KNOTS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE SPEEDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD COVER AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-24 KNOTS.
75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200919
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. MUCH OF WHAT APPEARS ON RADAR IS MID
CLOUD WITHIN THIS AREA OF LIFT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE EXITING DISTURBANCE MIGHT SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE TODAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE RATHER
NEUTRAL TODAY. AS SKIES CLEAR...AND THE AUGUST SUN HEATS THE
SURFACE LAYER...THE LACK OF INHIBITION COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
15 MPH...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EFFECTIVELY OBLITERATED. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. BUT EVEN WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNLESS
OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IS ABLE TO MECHANICALLY
LIFT THE SURFACE LAYER.

BY THURSDAY...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON TEXAS. ITS INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE RATHER ORDINARY SUMMER RIDGE CENTERED WELL
TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE EXTRAORDINARY FOR
AUGUST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL EXCEED NORMAL VALUES...CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HEAT WILL BE (1) A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE DUE TO PERSISTENT LEE
TROUGHING AND (2) DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-35.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPICAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD
RIDE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STIFLE IT...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEEP US
ENTERTAINED...IT MAY BEAR WATCHING. THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO REACTIVATE. FOR NOW...
ONLY INTRODUCED HIDDEN 10 POPS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST WITH CIGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 12-16G26 KNOTS EARLIER THIS EVENING AFTER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER...EXPECT SPEEDS TO COME
DOWN AFTER 06 OR 07Z AND AVERAGE AROUND 12 KNOTS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE SPEEDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD COVER AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-24 KNOTS.
75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            98  76  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  78  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  74  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  98  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200428 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST WITH CIGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 12-16G26 KNOTS EARLIER THIS EVENING AFTER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER...EXPECT SPEEDS TO COME
DOWN AFTER 06 OR 07Z AND AVERAGE AROUND 12 KNOTS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE SPEEDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD COVER AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-24 KNOTS.
75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
LOWER THE POPS AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200428 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST WITH CIGS
ABOVE 10000 FEET TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 12-16G26 KNOTS EARLIER THIS EVENING AFTER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER...EXPECT SPEEDS TO COME
DOWN AFTER 06 OR 07Z AND AVERAGE AROUND 12 KNOTS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE SPEEDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD COVER AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-24 KNOTS.
75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
LOWER THE POPS AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200234 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
LOWER THE POPS AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX...WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT..ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
VFR /SCT-BKN ABV120/ WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND 12-15G23KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AS FORCING FOR LIFT DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/58








000
FXUS64 KFWD 200234 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
LOWER THE POPS AND ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX...WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT..ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
VFR /SCT-BKN ABV120/ WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND 12-15G23KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AS FORCING FOR LIFT DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX...WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT..ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
VFR /SCT-BKN ABV120/ WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND 12-15G23KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AS FORCING FOR LIFT DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 192319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX...WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE EAST
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT..ALL TAF SITES WILL BE
VFR /SCT-BKN ABV120/ WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND 12-15G23KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES AS FORCING FOR LIFT DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.      DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 192025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DUNN



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 192025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES
IN IDENTIFYING MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A COUPLE OF FEATURES CONTINUE TO
STAND OUT ACROSS THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE VORTICES WHICH CAN HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK
UPPER LOW. SOME FORCING IS EVIDENT IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
WEAK THESE SUBTLE AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOME OF THIS COULD CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO GET TOTALLY
ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
CHANCES APPEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DUNN



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              75  96  77  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             73  95  74  96  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            72  96  76  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  97  78  98  78 /  20   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           74  95  75  97  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  75  99  75 /  20   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  96  75  98  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  96  74  99  74 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 191745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT A MCV IS LOCATED
NEAR KERRVILLE AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS LOCATION OF NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. ONE IS
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX EVIDENT BY NUMEROUS MID
LEVEL ECHOES ON RADAR. THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A BAND OF CLOUDINESS HAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES. CURRENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE RED RIVER AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SINCE GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND THEY HAVE
WARMED UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE LAST HOUR. ALSO...THE WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR ABILENE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WOULD SPREAD EAST AND
NORTH OF THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  30  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  30  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  40  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  40  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  30  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  30  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE (MCV) WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SET UP BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY DURING PEAK HEATING (BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z). WILL KEEP
WACO DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND OR DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT A MCV IS LOCATED
NEAR KERRVILLE AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS LOCATION OF NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. ONE IS
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX EVIDENT BY NUMEROUS MID
LEVEL ECHOES ON RADAR. THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A BAND OF CLOUDINESS HAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES. CURRENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE RED RIVER AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SINCE GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND THEY HAVE
WARMED UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE LAST HOUR. ALSO...THE WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR ABILENE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WOULD SPREAD EAST AND
NORTH OF THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  30  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  30  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  40  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  40  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  30  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  30  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/91







000
FXUS64 KFWD 191529 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1029 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT A MCV IS LOCATED
NEAR KERRVILLE AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS LOCATION OF NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. ONE IS
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX EVIDENT BY NUMEROUS MID
LEVEL ECHOES ON RADAR. THE OTHER IS AN AREA OF FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOUNDARY. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A BAND OF CLOUDINESS HAS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES. CURRENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE RED RIVER AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES SINCE GIVEN THAT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND THEY HAVE
WARMED UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE LAST HOUR. ALSO...THE WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR ABILENE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING WOULD SPREAD EAST AND
NORTH OF THERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 658 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH HAS INTRODUCED LIGHT NORTH AND EAST WINDS.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
MORNING PUSH TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH FLOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY
MID-MORNING.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY SENT AN
IMPULSE NORTHEAST...WHICH RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DIVING SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS...A WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS IN ITS WAKE...
EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS HOLE IN THE RIDGE HAS SENT ANOTHER
LOBE OF VORTICITY IN OUR DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THIS APPROACHING
IMPULSE...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS AROUND HAMILTON AND CORYELL
COUNTIES...CAN BE TRACED ON BOTH RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS FEATURE OVER THE METROPLEX 18-19Z (1-2PM
CDT).

EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS...ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT
AROUND THE TIME THE IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE METROPLEX. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO ERODE LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INVITATION. NEW
TEXAS TECH WRF IS NOW KEYING ON INITIATION IN THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME
AROUND THE METROPLEX...WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY
OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS 18-21Z (1-4PM
CDT) INTO METROPLEX TAFS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS BOTH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WHICH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  30  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  30  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  40  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  40  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  30  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  30  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  30  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  30  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191158 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTH HAS INTRODUCED LIGHT NORTH AND EAST WINDS.
THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
MORNING PUSH TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH FLOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY
MID-MORNING.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY SENT AN
IMPULSE NORTHEAST...WHICH RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DIVING SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS...A WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS IN ITS WAKE...
EVIDENCED BY THE NOCTURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS HOLE IN THE RIDGE HAS SENT ANOTHER
LOBE OF VORTICITY IN OUR DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THIS APPROACHING
IMPULSE...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS AROUND HAMILTON AND CORYELL
COUNTIES...CAN BE TRACED ON BOTH RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS FEATURE OVER THE METROPLEX 18-19Z (1-2PM
CDT).

EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS...ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT
AROUND THE TIME THE IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE METROPLEX. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO ERODE LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INVITATION. NEW
TEXAS TECH WRF IS NOW KEYING ON INITIATION IN THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME
AROUND THE METROPLEX...WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY
OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS 18-21Z (1-4PM
CDT) INTO METROPLEX TAFS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

UNLESS THE ACTIVITY IS BOTH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WHICH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190930 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/09Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

DECAYING PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX WILL
MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY OUTFLOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF FTW/AFW. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING PUSH...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PROCEED IN SOUTH FLOW.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THIS MORNING. THE RESULTING
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST
OF TAF SITES...BUT IF EVENTUAL OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO INVADE THE I-35
CORRIDOR...STORMS COULD IMPACT OUR AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. UNLESS
THE ACTIVITY IS BOTH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
CONCERNS...AFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING ON THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. ONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AFFECT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
AFFECT KFTW AND KAFW WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KFTW MIGHT SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD...WHICH COULD AFFECT
KFTW/KAFW THROUGH 09Z...THUS TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

KACT WINDS ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...UNLESS DIRECTLY AFFECT BY CONVECTION...THE TAF WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190930 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/09Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

DECAYING PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX WILL
MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY OUTFLOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF FTW/AFW. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING PUSH...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PROCEED IN SOUTH FLOW.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THIS MORNING. THE RESULTING
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR LATER TODAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST
OF TAF SITES...BUT IF EVENTUAL OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO INVADE THE I-35
CORRIDOR...STORMS COULD IMPACT OUR AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. UNLESS
THE ACTIVITY IS BOTH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...THOUGH THE HRRR...WRF
EAST AND SREF SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NOT ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT
24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WE WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH COLLAPSING
ACTIVITY. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WELL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT CANNOT BE
STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGH
THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS MAY HELP
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
CONCERNS...AFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING ON THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. ONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AFFECT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
AFFECT KFTW AND KAFW WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KFTW MIGHT SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD...WHICH COULD AFFECT
KFTW/KAFW THROUGH 09Z...THUS TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

KACT WINDS ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...UNLESS DIRECTLY AFFECT BY CONVECTION...THE TAF WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 190856
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS CONTAINED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY. THE HRRR...NATIONAL WRF AND SREF
MODELS SEEM TO BE THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOT
ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT OCCURS...WE
WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS
WELL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS
THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON
EVOLUTION OF FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE
THROUGH THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS MAY
HELP WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES
MODIFYING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
COMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 190856
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF SAN ANGELO/BROWNWOOD WILL
ONCE AGAIN GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR
LOCATED BETWEEN 900-650MB ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING...IT/S QUITE
SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION HAS LASTED THIS LONG AND QUITE A
DISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN EARLIER CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE COLLAPSED
AND PUT OUT A NORTHEAST PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MADE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BETWEEN WEATHERFORD AND COMANCHE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PARKER...TARRANT...WISE...DALLAS AND
DENTON COUNTIES. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
NOTED PER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS FROM KFWS AND TDWR/S IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. MEANWHILE ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
WEATHER FEATURES BOTH AT THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. THE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS CONTAINED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY. THE HRRR...NATIONAL WRF AND SREF
MODELS SEEM TO BE THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. GIVEN ALL THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOT
ANY ONE MODEL CAN BE COMPLETELY TRUSTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES BREAK DOWN. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT OCCURS...WE
WILL ADVERTISE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDORS. IF DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SHOW ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THEN GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS
WELL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS
THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ON
EVOLUTION OF FEATURES AND RESULTING CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE
THROUGH THE DAY ON REALITY VERSUS MODEL PROGNOSIS.

THE WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE UPPER HIGH WITH HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS A FEW AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY
BE WEAK ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS
LOW AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS MAY
HELP WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES
MODIFYING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
COMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  78  98  78 100 /  20  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  75  97  77 100 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             96  72  97  75  98 /  20  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  98  77 100 /  30  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  96  75  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            96  78  97  78  99 /  20  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  97  76  99 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            96  75  97  75  99 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  71  98  73 100 /  40  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190444 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...AFFECTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CONVERGING ON THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. ONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AFFECT KDAL/KDFW/KGKY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
AFFECT KFTW AND KAFW WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KFTW MIGHT SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD...WHICH COULD AFFECT
KFTW/KAFW THROUGH 09Z...THUS TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

KACT WINDS ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOON WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...UNLESS DIRECTLY AFFECT BY CONVECTION...THE TAF WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15
KNOTS ON TUESDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.      DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 182314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXISTS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE MCS OVER THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KACT WILL HAVE TSRA IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 02Z...THEN ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD RETRACT BACK INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BUT COULD
SPREAD BACK OVER KACT LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED NEAR/AROUND KACT ON TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE FORCING...
INSTABILITY AND HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH 01Z...THEN
RAIN FREE AFTERWARDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.

UNLESS A TSRA BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO KACT...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
BKN-SCT AT 150-250 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.      DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 182314 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXISTS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR SAN ANGELO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE MCS OVER THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

KACT WILL HAVE TSRA IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 02Z...THEN ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD RETRACT BACK INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BUT COULD
SPREAD BACK OVER KACT LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED NEAR/AROUND KACT ON TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE FORCING...
INSTABILITY AND HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX SITES THROUGH 01Z...THEN
RAIN FREE AFTERWARDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.

UNLESS A TSRA BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO KACT...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
BKN-SCT AT 150-250 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.      DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  20  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 182025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMP
IS IN THE MID 90S. OVERALL BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 20-23Z. FOR
WACO...A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPO TSRA AND VCTS WILL
BE ADVERTISED THERE AS WELL. TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  10  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 182025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA.
THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED MCV BETWEEN ABILENE AND STEPHENVILLE WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. AREAS UNDERNEATH CLOUD COVER ARE
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE IT IS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S WHERE IT IS SUNNY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE MCV AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COOL
SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WHICH IS
EVIDENT ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS RADAR NEAR KILLEEN...SO WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER NORTH...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL WEAK ASCENT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL ECHOES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH FURTHER HEATING...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MCV. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THINK RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS WEAKNESS
QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMP
IS IN THE MID 90S. OVERALL BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 20-23Z. FOR
WACO...A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPO TSRA AND VCTS WILL
BE ADVERTISED THERE AS WELL. TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  77  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  76  97  77 /  30  20   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             71  97  72  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            74  99  74  98  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  97  75  96  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  97  75  97  78 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  75  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  71  98  73 /  10  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181731
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS
WILL BECOME UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMP
IS IN THE MID 90S. OVERALL BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
SOUTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES BUT A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP CLOSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 20-23Z. FOR
WACO...A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPO TSRA AND VCTS WILL
BE ADVERTISED THERE AS WELL. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV ROTATING EAST
OF SAN ANGELO WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF A CISCO
TO COMANCHE LINE. NORTH TEXAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
ASCENT AS NOTED IN MORE TOWERING MID LEVEL CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR TODAY WILL BE THE REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
THAT SURGES OUTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  50  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             97  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            97  74  99  74  98 /  30  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  74  97  74  97 /  30  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  40  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  40  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  99  73  97 /  30  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181536 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV ROTATING EAST
OF SAN ANGELO WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF A CISCO
TO COMANCHE LINE. NORTH TEXAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
ASCENT AS NOTED IN MORE TOWERING MID LEVEL CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR TODAY WILL BE THE REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
THAT SURGES OUTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FOCUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.

WACO...
THE PUBLIC FORECAST CARRIES A POP OF 40 PERCENT FOR WACO...BUT
WITH THE NATURE OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...UNABLE TO
PINPOINT A NARROW WINDOW FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE. WILL FORGO ITS
INCLUSION NOW.

25


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  50  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             97  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            97  74  99  74  98 /  30  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  74  97  74  97 /  30  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  40  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  40  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  99  73  97 /  30  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181536 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV ROTATING EAST
OF SAN ANGELO WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF A CISCO
TO COMANCHE LINE. NORTH TEXAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
ASCENT AS NOTED IN MORE TOWERING MID LEVEL CU FIELD AND EVEN A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR TODAY WILL BE THE REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
THAT SURGES OUTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS
OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FOCUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.

WACO...
THE PUBLIC FORECAST CARRIES A POP OF 40 PERCENT FOR WACO...BUT
WITH THE NATURE OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...UNABLE TO
PINPOINT A NARROW WINDOW FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE. WILL FORGO ITS
INCLUSION NOW.

25


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  50  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             97  72  96  73  96 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            97  74  99  74  98 /  30  10   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          96  74  97  74  97 /  30  10   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  40  20   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  40  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  40  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  99  73  97 /  30  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181155 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FOCUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.

WACO...
THE PUBLIC FORECAST CARRIES A POP OF 40 PERCENT FOR WACO...BUT
WITH THE NATURE OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...UNABLE TO
PINPOINT A NARROW WINDOW FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE. WILL FORGO ITS
INCLUSION NOW.

25

&&



&&

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  40  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  20   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  30  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  40  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181155 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FOCUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF METROPLEX TAF SITES.

WACO...
THE PUBLIC FORECAST CARRIES A POP OF 40 PERCENT FOR WACO...BUT
WITH THE NATURE OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...UNABLE TO
PINPOINT A NARROW WINDOW FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE. WILL FORGO ITS
INCLUSION NOW.

25

&&



&&

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  40  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  20   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  30  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  40  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 181114 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  40  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  20   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  30  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  40  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181114 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS THE MCV THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHICH HAS IN TURN SHIFTED OUR MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE FROM A DECAYING
STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RACING SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE BETTER BAND OF POPS INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING D/FW AND INSERTED A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS UP
THROUGH THE RED RIVER DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NOTED ON
THE FWD SOUNDING LAST EVENING. THOUGH IS SOME RICHER COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS EVEN NORTH OF I-2O THIS MORNING.

IT IS POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITIES WILL REMAIN EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE
MCV WILL BE AND ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL LET THE DAY CREW
ASSESS ON THE FLY FOR ANY AFTERNOON ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPERATURES.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  40  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  20   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  30   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  30  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  40  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180804
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  10   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  20  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  10  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 180804
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE PLAYING A ROLE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK
VORTICITY AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT SITS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LINKING YESTERDAY/S MCV OVER THE
ARKLATEX WITH A SECOND MCV SITTING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
PLAIN/HILL COUNTRY AREAS.

ANYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. PWATS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE SEEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING AS NOTED BY THE 3/4 OF AN INCH DROP OFF IN PWAT VALUES. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING WAS DOWN TO 1.65 INCHES FROM 2.35 OF PWAT YESTERDAY
MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE CONVERGENT
AND WEAK NEAR THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
MEANS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CASE STORM OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
NORTHWARD OR THE SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATES BACK NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO WANE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHEAR AXIS EXITS THE AREA.

FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF STATES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTROL REGIONAL
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT
MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  78  98  78  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  98  75  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  73  96 /  20   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  74  99  74  98 /  10   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  97  74  97 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  98  78  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  75  98  76  98 /  20   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  97  76  98 /  30  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            97  74  98  74  98 /  20  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  73  99  73  97 /  10  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180438
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 00Z
TAFS...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED BELOW.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH




&&

.UPDATE...
LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT SINCE THE MCV IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NOW AND THE GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  30  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 180438
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 00Z
TAFS...THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED BELOW.

CAVANAUGH

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH




&&

.UPDATE...
LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT SINCE THE MCV IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NOW AND THE GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  30  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 180433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT SINCE THE MCV IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NOW AND THE GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  30  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 172355
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  40  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 172355
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT DFW AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO WATCH OUT FOR. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE DFW AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MORE OR LESS CLEARED OUT OF THE
DFW AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA THOUGH IS ABOUT
TO MOVE BACK UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 2-3
HOURS...BUT WILL AMEND THE TAF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS PROVIDING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL ZONE OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE HILL COUNTRY BACK OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WACO AREA AROUND NOON TOMORROW. FOR NOW JUST
PUT A CHANGE GROUP IN TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AT 7000 FT
AGL DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR LIFTED FROM THE 7000 FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  40  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KFWD 172009
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
METROPLEX HAS SHIFTED MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS
AS OF MIDDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST AT KDAL AND KGKY AND
WILL INCLUDE THESE IN THE CURRENT TAF. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS AS A STRONG OUTFLOW IS PUSHING IN THAT GENERAL
DIRECTION. FARTHER SOUTH AT WACO...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM
21-23Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  40  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KFWD 172009
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE METROPLEX REGION CONTINUES TO
WANE AS SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON ALL SIDES OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL THAT IS SPREADING
OUTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTION CREATES A CIRCULATION THAT
IS SUBSIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX AND PROMOTES LIFTING
AROUND THE OUTER EDGES WHERE THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS
IN LIFTING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF WACO AND
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE...AND THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SUNNY AREAS OF THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT CONVERGENCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE COLD POOL
BOUNDARY IS NOTABLY WEAKER. ACROSS THE METROPLEX THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN FROM RESIDUAL STORM ANVILS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
WITH A RATHER QUIET EVENING EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS RESIDES.

THE PARENT MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR PARIS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP E/SE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MCV CENTER LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH THIS EVENT...AND
IT GENERALLY FORECASTS THIS REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS...WHERE MASS FIELDS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ALONG A TEXARKANA TO WACO
TO SAN ANGELO LINE...THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO
BACK BUILD WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHAT THE 3KM TTU WRF IS INDICATING. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...IT SHOULD STAY QUIET WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT TOMORROW
AND THEREFORE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED. BUT BECAUSE OF
STRONG HEATING AND REASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE...A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL POP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE
THEN SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD STAY THERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
METROPLEX HAS SHIFTED MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS
AS OF MIDDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST AT KDAL AND KGKY AND
WILL INCLUDE THESE IN THE CURRENT TAF. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS AS A STRONG OUTFLOW IS PUSHING IN THAT GENERAL
DIRECTION. FARTHER SOUTH AT WACO...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM
21-23Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              77  98  75  98  75 /  30  20  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  30  20  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  96  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            73  98  78  98  78 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /  40  30  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  98  73  99  73 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities