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000
FXUS64 KFWD 010251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.

OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  20  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  20  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  10  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  20  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.

OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  20  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  20  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  10  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  20  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010006 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  30  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  30  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  20  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  10  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010006 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  30  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  30  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  20  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  10  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010006 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  30  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  30  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  20  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  10  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 312034
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  30  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  30  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  20  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  10  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 312034
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  30  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  30  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  20  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  10  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 311736
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 311736
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 311736
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 311736
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH FLOW NEAR 15KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAIN REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GENERAL
MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT OF
TAFS. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING THE JOURNEY FAR
ENOUGH EAST INTO THE METROPLEX.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT BUT RAP
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THIS WOULD KEEP BULK OF STRATUS EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE DRY AIR IN THIS LAYER...WILL SHOW A
SMALLER WINDOW OF MVFR FOR FTW/AFW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING WITH ACT/DAL SEEING SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CAP LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF DFW FOR THE EXTENDED TAF.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 311146 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...MORNING MVFR CIGS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS ISOLD
IFR CIGS AND A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. KACT WENT MVFR SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND EXPECT THE DFW
METROPLEX TO SEE SOME SHORTLY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS VEER
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20+ KNOTS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET...WHICH MAY LIMIT MVFR CIGS OVER KFTW
AND KAFW THIS MORNING. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR CIGS TO
IMPROVE AT ALL AFFECTED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY RETURN AROUND 08Z.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THAT ANY TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CIGS AROUND 800 FEET...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN TWO HOURS
IN DURATION IF IT OCCURS. FLIGHTS HEADED THROUGH AREAS AROUND KSPS
AND KADM WILL HAVE IFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MID MORNING...KSPS
CURRENTLY 1/4SM FG V002 AND KADM M1/4SM FG BKN001.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10-16 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




000
FXUS64 KFWD 311146 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...MORNING MVFR CIGS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS ISOLD
IFR CIGS AND A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. KACT WENT MVFR SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND EXPECT THE DFW
METROPLEX TO SEE SOME SHORTLY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS VEER
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20+ KNOTS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET...WHICH MAY LIMIT MVFR CIGS OVER KFTW
AND KAFW THIS MORNING. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR CIGS TO
IMPROVE AT ALL AFFECTED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY RETURN AROUND 08Z.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THAT ANY TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CIGS AROUND 800 FEET...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN TWO HOURS
IN DURATION IF IT OCCURS. FLIGHTS HEADED THROUGH AREAS AROUND KSPS
AND KADM WILL HAVE IFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MID MORNING...KSPS
CURRENTLY 1/4SM FG V002 AND KADM M1/4SM FG BKN001.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10-16 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 311146 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...MORNING MVFR CIGS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS ISOLD
IFR CIGS AND A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. KACT WENT MVFR SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND EXPECT THE DFW
METROPLEX TO SEE SOME SHORTLY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS VEER
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20+ KNOTS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET...WHICH MAY LIMIT MVFR CIGS OVER KFTW
AND KAFW THIS MORNING. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR CIGS TO
IMPROVE AT ALL AFFECTED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY RETURN AROUND 08Z.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THAT ANY TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CIGS AROUND 800 FEET...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN TWO HOURS
IN DURATION IF IT OCCURS. FLIGHTS HEADED THROUGH AREAS AROUND KSPS
AND KADM WILL HAVE IFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MID MORNING...KSPS
CURRENTLY 1/4SM FG V002 AND KADM M1/4SM FG BKN001.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10-16 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




000
FXUS64 KFWD 311146 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...MORNING MVFR CIGS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS ISOLD
IFR CIGS AND A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. KACT WENT MVFR SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND EXPECT THE DFW
METROPLEX TO SEE SOME SHORTLY. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS VEER
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20+ KNOTS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET...WHICH MAY LIMIT MVFR CIGS OVER KFTW
AND KAFW THIS MORNING. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR CIGS TO
IMPROVE AT ALL AFFECTED TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THEY RETURN AROUND 08Z.

THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW THAT ANY TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE IFR
CIGS AROUND 800 FEET...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN TWO HOURS
IN DURATION IF IT OCCURS. FLIGHTS HEADED THROUGH AREAS AROUND KSPS
AND KADM WILL HAVE IFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH MID MORNING...KSPS
CURRENTLY 1/4SM FG V002 AND KADM M1/4SM FG BKN001.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 10-16 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 310853
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VALID TIME WITH
MAINLY THIN...HIGH CLOUDS. A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS INDICATED
ON THE KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE...WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
TO WACO BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 10Z. OVERALL...PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW 1000
FT...BUT WACO MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO 800 FT AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. ALL LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER LATE MORNING
TUESDAY WITH VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL AS HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AFTER
06Z...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SINCE STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS TUESDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 310853
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). ASIDE FROM STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS EML ALSO REPRESENTS A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE IN
PLACE BELOW THIS EML CAP...WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 60S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED DUE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LEFT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...WITH A STOUT CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT WHEREVER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS WINDS UP...IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE CAP SHOULD ALSO ENSURE A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY...WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING JUST WEST OF THE CWA AS A
DRYLINE ORGANIZES FROM WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR ABILENE AROUND 21Z.
31/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISES CONVECTION
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE AT OR AROUND 00Z/7PM THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
TEND TO MOVE EAST INTO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO INTO
STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT GENERALLY FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
ABILENE RATHER THAN NEAR WICHITA FALLS WHICH IS WHAT
GLOBAL/COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR. EITHER WAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.

IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEY WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH IS MARGINAL
FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
AND FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE...THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE...POSSIBLY GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER OR LINE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
INITIATION. THINK THAT THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A 20 POP
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON...AND A 30 POP AFTER SUNSET
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE EAST...SO ALSO KEPT POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORMS BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CWA. IF
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE INTO THE CWA...ANTICIPATE THAT LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO UNLESS A
STRONG DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPS...THINK THAT THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF
THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTER CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF
I-20 AS A RESULT...BUT DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO CHANCES ARE THAT THE EML CAP WILL
SIMPLY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE PLUME OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
DO NOT THINK ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM TO
PROVIDE LIFT. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THAT MAY PAN OUT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE RED RIVER BY 00Z/7PM THURSDAY
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THAT A STRONG DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PRECEDING 48
HOURS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT TRAPPED UNDER
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE 825 MB LEVEL. THIS INVERSION IS
THE BASE OF ANOTHER EML THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MODELS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE
FROM 2-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ON THURSDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE
ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE WEST...ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE. WHILE THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS
IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER STORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXTEND OUT FAR ENOUGH TO
RESOLVE CONVECTION INITIATION CHANCES ALONG THE DRYLINE AT THIS
TIME. STANDARD MODEL/CONVECTION PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND ALL FAIL TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY CLEAR CUT MESSAGE...THE
CAP WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING A QUICK INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
LIFT...AND POSSIBLY THE MODELS ACTIVATING THEIR SHALLOW CONVECTION
SCHEMES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THOUGHT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS SUFFICIENT TO ADVERTISE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS TOO
STRONG...WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SOME SIMPLE CONVECTION
ATTEMPTS/ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WANTED TO AT LEAST ADVERTISE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECAUSE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THURSDAY`S DRYLINE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

THIS WEEKEND...THE CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE
THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY...CHANCES ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO SPEED UP AND MEET THE DRYLINE THURSDAY EVENING...THE
TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR WOULD BE A VERY
FAVORABLE INITIATION POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AFTER THE NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT IS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTH OVER THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC...OR JUST BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN WITH GOOD QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS GENERAL
COMBINATION YIELDS A CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF SOME
STRONG/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VALID TIME WITH
MAINLY THIN...HIGH CLOUDS. A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS INDICATED
ON THE KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE...WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
TO WACO BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 10Z. OVERALL...PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW 1000
FT...BUT WACO MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO 800 FT AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. ALL LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER LATE MORNING
TUESDAY WITH VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL AS HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AFTER
06Z...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SINCE STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS TUESDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
WACO, TX              81  64  78  64  86 /  10  20  30  10  20
PARIS, TX             77  60  76  63  79 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            82  64  78  64  88 /  10  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  62  78  64  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            82  65  78  65  87 /  10  20  30  10  20
TERRELL, TX           79  62  78  64  83 /  10  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         79  63  77  64  82 /  10  20  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            81  64  78  64  85 /  10  20  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  62  80  63  93 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 310446 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VALID TIME WITH
MAINLY THIN...HIGH CLOUDS. A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AS INDICATED
ON THE KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE...WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
TO WACO BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 10Z. OVERALL...PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW 1000
FT...BUT WACO MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO 800 FT AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. ALL LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER LATE MORNING
TUESDAY WITH VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL AS HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AFTER
06Z...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SINCE STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS TUESDAY.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE EAST
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN LONGER...TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
WEST WHERE THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS. SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL...IS EXPECTED TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE INTO MEXICO TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BUT A DECENT CAP FAVORS A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO WEAKEN
THE CAP AROUND SUNSET. IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS ON THE
DRYLINE...THEY COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL UNDER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM BUT OTHERS WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE STORMS DEVELOP. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO A LOCATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES WEAKENING TO BREAKABLE LEVELS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT TOO
BUT THE MISSING PIECE FOR STORMS MAY BE A DECENT FORCING
MECHANISM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE DRYLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS SITUATION
NEEDS FURTHER WATCHING AND ANALYSIS AS THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A 10 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NONE OF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING STORM
INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ISOLATED.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER OVER THE GFS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS QUICKLY RETURN MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO QUICK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  81  64  75  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
WACO, TX              62  80  64  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             60  75  61  73  62 /  10  10  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            63  80  63  75  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  79  62  73  65 /  10  10  20  40  10
DALLAS, TX            64  80  64  74  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           61  78  62  73  63 /  10  10  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  78  63  76  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  63 /  10  10  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  83  63  78  64 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302338 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUNSET AT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TO WACO BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z
AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. WACO MAY EVEN
TEMPORARILY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. ALL LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DRY AIR AIR
MIXES DOWN.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A CAP OF
WARM AIR SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT STORM FORMATION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 12
KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RANGE
FROM 13 TO 17 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE EAST
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN LONGER...TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
WEST WHERE THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS. SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL...IS EXPECTED TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE INTO MEXICO TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BUT A DECENT CAP FAVORS A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO WEAKEN
THE CAP AROUND SUNSET. IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS ON THE
DRYLINE...THEY COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL UNDER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM BUT OTHERS WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE STORMS DEVELOP. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO A LOCATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES WEAKENING TO BREAKABLE LEVELS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT TOO
BUT THE MISSING PIECE FOR STORMS MAY BE A DECENT FORCING
MECHANISM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE DRYLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS SITUATION
NEEDS FURTHER WATCHING AND ANALYSIS AS THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A 10 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NONE OF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING STORM
INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ISOLATED.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER OVER THE GFS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS QUICKLY RETURN MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO QUICK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  81  64  75  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
WACO, TX              62  80  64  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             60  75  61  73  62 /  10  10  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            63  80  63  75  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  79  62  73  65 /  10  10  20  40  10
DALLAS, TX            64  80  64  74  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           61  78  62  73  63 /  10  10  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  78  63  76  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  63 /  10  10  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  83  63  78  64 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 302338 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUNSET AT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TO WACO BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z
AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. WACO MAY EVEN
TEMPORARILY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. ALL LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DRY AIR AIR
MIXES DOWN.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A CAP OF
WARM AIR SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT STORM FORMATION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 12
KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RANGE
FROM 13 TO 17 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE EAST
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN LONGER...TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
WEST WHERE THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS. SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL...IS EXPECTED TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE INTO MEXICO TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BUT A DECENT CAP FAVORS A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO WEAKEN
THE CAP AROUND SUNSET. IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS ON THE
DRYLINE...THEY COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL UNDER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM BUT OTHERS WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE STORMS DEVELOP. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO A LOCATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES WEAKENING TO BREAKABLE LEVELS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT TOO
BUT THE MISSING PIECE FOR STORMS MAY BE A DECENT FORCING
MECHANISM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE DRYLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS SITUATION
NEEDS FURTHER WATCHING AND ANALYSIS AS THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A 10 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NONE OF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING STORM
INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ISOLATED.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER OVER THE GFS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS QUICKLY RETURN MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO QUICK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  81  64  75  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
WACO, TX              62  80  64  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             60  75  61  73  62 /  10  10  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            63  80  63  75  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  79  62  73  65 /  10  10  20  40  10
DALLAS, TX            64  80  64  74  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           61  78  62  73  63 /  10  10  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  78  63  76  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  63 /  10  10  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  83  63  78  64 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302338 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUNSET AT
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TO WACO BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z
AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. WACO MAY EVEN
TEMPORARILY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. ALL LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DRY AIR AIR
MIXES DOWN.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A CAP OF
WARM AIR SHOULD LIMIT OR PREVENT STORM FORMATION.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 12
KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RANGE
FROM 13 TO 17 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE EAST
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN LONGER...TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
WEST WHERE THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS. SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL...IS EXPECTED TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE INTO MEXICO TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BUT A DECENT CAP FAVORS A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO WEAKEN
THE CAP AROUND SUNSET. IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS ON THE
DRYLINE...THEY COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL UNDER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM BUT OTHERS WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE STORMS DEVELOP. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO A LOCATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES WEAKENING TO BREAKABLE LEVELS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT TOO
BUT THE MISSING PIECE FOR STORMS MAY BE A DECENT FORCING
MECHANISM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE DRYLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS SITUATION
NEEDS FURTHER WATCHING AND ANALYSIS AS THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A 10 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NONE OF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING STORM
INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ISOLATED.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER OVER THE GFS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS QUICKLY RETURN MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO QUICK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  81  64  75  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
WACO, TX              62  80  64  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             60  75  61  73  62 /  10  10  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            63  80  63  75  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  79  62  73  65 /  10  10  20  40  10
DALLAS, TX            64  80  64  74  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           61  78  62  73  63 /  10  10  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  78  63  76  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  63 /  10  10  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  83  63  78  64 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 302053
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE. WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE EAST
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN LONGER...TO THE LOW 80S IN THE
WEST WHERE THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS. SOME ELEVATED
RETURNS MAY APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF NOT ALL...IS EXPECTED TO
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND DAYBREAK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE INTO MEXICO TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BUT A DECENT CAP FAVORS A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DRYLINE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DO WEAKEN
THE CAP AROUND SUNSET. IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS ON THE
DRYLINE...THEY COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE
DEPTH IS GREATEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL UNDER A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM BUT OTHERS WILL NOT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A DECENT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE STORMS DEVELOP. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO A LOCATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES WEAKENING TO BREAKABLE LEVELS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT TOO
BUT THE MISSING PIECE FOR STORMS MAY BE A DECENT FORCING
MECHANISM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE DRYLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS SITUATION
NEEDS FURTHER WATCHING AND ANALYSIS AS THERE COULD BE SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A 10 POP
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NONE OF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING STORM
INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ISOLATED.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER OVER THE GFS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS QUICKLY RETURN MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO QUICK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT
WACO.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO
GRANBURY TO DENTON TO MCKINNEY LINE AS OF 17Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20-21Z. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
18Z TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...WITH OVC020
EXPECTED IN THE METROPLEX 09-18Z...AND OVC015 AT WACO 07-18Z AT
WACO. CEILINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND BKN008 AT WACO BETWEEN 11 AND
14Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  81  64  75  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
WACO, TX              62  80  64  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             60  75  61  73  62 /  10  10  20  40  20
DENTON, TX            63  80  63  75  65 /  10  10  20  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  79  62  73  65 /  10  10  20  40  10
DALLAS, TX            64  80  64  74  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TERRELL, TX           61  78  62  73  63 /  10  10  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  78  63  76  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            62  80  64  78  63 /  10  10  20  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  83  63  78  64 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301754 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT
WACO.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO
GRANBURY TO DENTON TO MCKINNEY LINE AS OF 17Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20-21Z. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
18Z TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...WITH OVC020
EXPECTED IN THE METROPLEX 09-18Z...AND OVC015 AT WACO 07-18Z AT
WACO. CEILINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND BKN008 AT WACO BETWEEN 11 AND
14Z.

58

&&

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301754 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT
WACO.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO
GRANBURY TO DENTON TO MCKINNEY LINE AS OF 17Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20-21Z. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
18Z TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...WITH OVC020
EXPECTED IN THE METROPLEX 09-18Z...AND OVC015 AT WACO 07-18Z AT
WACO. CEILINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND BKN008 AT WACO BETWEEN 11 AND
14Z.

58

&&

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301754 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z AT
WACO.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO
GRANBURY TO DENTON TO MCKINNEY LINE AS OF 17Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20-21Z. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
18Z TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...WITH OVC020
EXPECTED IN THE METROPLEX 09-18Z...AND OVC015 AT WACO 07-18Z AT
WACO. CEILINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND BKN008 AT WACO BETWEEN 11 AND
14Z.

58

&&

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301701 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301701 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301701 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301701 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A
HIGHER SKY COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

YESTERDAY/S STALLED COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED NORTH A LITTLE AS A
WARM FRONT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOTED AT NEARLY ALL SITES
THIS HOUR...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS BUT
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRETTY DRY IN THAT AREA PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR WITH VIRGA VISUALLY NOTED UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF QUESTION BUT
WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              80  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            77  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          77  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            78  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           77  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         77  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            80  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     80  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/82





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 301139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300817
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300817
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300817
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300456
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WAS ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WEATHERFORD
TO MCKINNEY TO BONHAM AT 1130 PM. THE FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH...AFW...FTW AND DFW COULD TEMPORARILY SEE AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY
IN SOUTH FLOW.

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT WILL REACH WACO JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BUT WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300245 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300245 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300245 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300245 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINED AT SUNSET.
DESPITE THE MECHANICAL FORCING OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
INADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROVED THE LIMITING REACTANT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 9 PM...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM IN COLLIN COUNTY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO HUNT COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING...
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAINED UNTAPPED.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR GLACIATED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
APPEARS LOW. EVENING UPDATE REDUCES POPS OVERALL...ALONG WITH
REMOVAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM HAZARD GRIDS.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  10  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  10  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  10  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /   5  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 300011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
VISUALLY THE CU ALONG THE FRONT IS FLAT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS AT DFW...DAL AND GKY BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z JUST BASED ON THE INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY LIMIT OR
PREVENT ANY STORM FORMATION. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT AFW AND FTW
SINCE THE FRONT IS LESS THAN ONE HOUR AWAY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT STALL NORTH OF WACO. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
IN WACO BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS...A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
INITIALLY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POST
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE WIND
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT WACO...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 292049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 292049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 292049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 292049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 291636
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291636
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 290903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD
FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 290903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD
FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25





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