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000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 172126
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL THREAT...CHOSE
NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT RATHER
ISSUE THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
SOLID  FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...THEN HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION IS
WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MID-WEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 172126
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL THREAT...CHOSE
NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT RATHER
ISSUE THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
SOLID  FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...THEN HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION IS
WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MID-WEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170854
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170854
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170158
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
758 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITIES...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170158
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
758 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITIES...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 162022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR
SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITY...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 162022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR
SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITY...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 160902
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE
DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160902
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE
DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 160902
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE
DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHTER WIND AREA WIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN
SHOWERS GOING FOR THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

TONIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WIND WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
MAY STILL DRIFT NORTH INTO TERMINALS ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
VALLEY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MID-LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD
CONDITIONS. WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
BRING CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHTER WIND AREA WIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN
SHOWERS GOING FOR THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

TONIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WIND WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
MAY STILL DRIFT NORTH INTO TERMINALS ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
VALLEY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MID-LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS.

THURSDAY...A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD
CONDITIONS. WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 152028
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
228 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL ALSO AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
NICE FLYING WEATHER THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

CIGS A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGDV. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WINDS: NORTHWEST 20-30KTS DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS GOING WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 152028
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
228 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL ALSO AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
NICE FLYING WEATHER THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

CIGS A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGDV. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WINDS: NORTHWEST 20-30KTS DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS GOING WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 152028
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
228 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL ALSO AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
NICE FLYING WEATHER THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

CIGS A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGDV. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WINDS: NORTHWEST 20-30KTS DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS GOING WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 152028
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
228 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID THE FAR SOUTHEAST...I.E. THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND WIBAUX COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAKING
FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING TEMPS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE CURRENT RUN OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ITS POSITIONED BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND NEARLY STAGNANT TROUGH TO THE
EAST. QUICK SHOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE WIND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND FOR THE TIME FRAME WHERE EASTERN MONTANA
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS QUICK- MOVING CLIPPER SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER
MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL OFF WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL ALSO AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
NICE FLYING WEATHER THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

CIGS A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGDV. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WINDS: NORTHWEST 20-30KTS DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS GOING WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 151534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST TWEAKS WERE
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z... THE FRONT WAS NEAR PLENTYWOOD...
CULBERTSON AND GLENDIVE AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 62 MPH AT MALTA SOUTH DOT NEAR ZORTMAN. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING UNTIL 15Z FOR THAT AREA. WHILE THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL BE IN UTAH TODAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS CUT
OFF BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH DEEPENS AND DRIER
AND MORE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO MONTANA DIMINISHING THE WINDS TONIGHT.

THAT HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE
STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT SPLITS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

THE PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT SPLIT AWAY FORMS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. AS
THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT
FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE TROUGH AND CREATES AREAS OF RAIN THAT WILL
REACH NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR IS POSSIBLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 151534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST TWEAKS WERE
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z... THE FRONT WAS NEAR PLENTYWOOD...
CULBERTSON AND GLENDIVE AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 62 MPH AT MALTA SOUTH DOT NEAR ZORTMAN. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING UNTIL 15Z FOR THAT AREA. WHILE THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL BE IN UTAH TODAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS CUT
OFF BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH DEEPENS AND DRIER
AND MORE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO MONTANA DIMINISHING THE WINDS TONIGHT.

THAT HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE
STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT SPLITS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

THE PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT SPLIT AWAY FORMS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. AS
THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT
FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE TROUGH AND CREATES AREAS OF RAIN THAT WILL
REACH NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR IS POSSIBLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 151534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST TWEAKS WERE
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z... THE FRONT WAS NEAR PLENTYWOOD...
CULBERTSON AND GLENDIVE AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 62 MPH AT MALTA SOUTH DOT NEAR ZORTMAN. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING UNTIL 15Z FOR THAT AREA. WHILE THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL BE IN UTAH TODAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS CUT
OFF BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH DEEPENS AND DRIER
AND MORE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO MONTANA DIMINISHING THE WINDS TONIGHT.

THAT HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE
STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT SPLITS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

THE PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT SPLIT AWAY FORMS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. AS
THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT
FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE TROUGH AND CREATES AREAS OF RAIN THAT WILL
REACH NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR IS POSSIBLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 151534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST TWEAKS WERE
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER AND WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z... THE FRONT WAS NEAR PLENTYWOOD...
CULBERTSON AND GLENDIVE AND SHOULD BE IN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND HAVE GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 62 MPH AT MALTA SOUTH DOT NEAR ZORTMAN. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING UNTIL 15Z FOR THAT AREA. WHILE THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH TODAY.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL BE IN UTAH TODAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. THIS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS CUT
OFF BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH DEEPENS AND DRIER
AND MORE ZONAL NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO MONTANA DIMINISHING THE WINDS TONIGHT.

THAT HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER
SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS THIS COMPACT STORM SYSTEM BEGINNING TO STACK UP OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO MANITOBA THE
STRONG WRAP-AROUND WINDS WILL BE REINFORCED BY CAA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSUMES THE COMMA SHAPE AS IT
GAINS STRENGTH BY MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE COMA HEAD BACKDOORS OUR AREA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A COOLER DAY. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE AREA COULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE GROWING EASTERN
TROUGH AND WARMER WESTERN RIDGE STALLS OVER NEMONT. HOWEVER THE EC
SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY EAST OF NEMONT ALLOWING A WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEK BY TUESDAY. SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THIS. THIS
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE
BY OCCASIONALLY. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT SPLITS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25-35KT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

THE PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DID NOT SPLIT AWAY FORMS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. AS
THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT
FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE TROUGH AND CREATES AREAS OF RAIN THAT WILL
REACH NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR IS POSSIBLE.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








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