Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KGGW 182038
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY MORNING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES OVERHEAD. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
MORNING...BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
TONIGHTS FRONT...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING BY LATE
MORNING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY PLACING THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF MONTANA...KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG RANGE CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN THE PERIODS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BEGINS TO FRAY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR POPS. EFFECTIVELY RIDGE OVER THE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE US AND CANADA BECOMES SO LARGE THAT IT PULLS IN AN
UNDERCUTTING TROUGH FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND RUNS IT
NORTHEAST IN A STRAIGHT SHOT TO WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SOUTHERN
EDGES OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD... ENSEMBLE BREAKDOWN AND CONFIDENCE LOWERING
TAKES PLACE HERE. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH SPECIFICS YET... TO DECIDE WHETHER IT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE IT BUMPS UP AGAINST FROM MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN.   GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










000
FXUS65 KGGW 182038
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY MORNING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES OVERHEAD. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
MORNING...BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
TONIGHTS FRONT...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING BY LATE
MORNING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY PLACING THE BEST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF MONTANA...KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG RANGE CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN THE PERIODS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BEGINS TO FRAY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR POPS. EFFECTIVELY RIDGE OVER THE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE US AND CANADA BECOMES SO LARGE THAT IT PULLS IN AN
UNDERCUTTING TROUGH FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND RUNS IT
NORTHEAST IN A STRAIGHT SHOT TO WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SOUTHERN
EDGES OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD... ENSEMBLE BREAKDOWN AND CONFIDENCE LOWERING
TAKES PLACE HERE. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH SPECIFICS YET... TO DECIDE WHETHER IT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE IT BUMPS UP AGAINST FROM MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN.   GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 180156
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
756 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH LOWS ALONG THE CMR AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA VALLEYS AS PER PREVIOUS
NIGHT/S TRENDS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD
BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE UP AND AROUND THE
CREST OF A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK-
DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH/BLM




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 180156
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
756 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH LOWS ALONG THE CMR AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA VALLEYS AS PER PREVIOUS
NIGHT/S TRENDS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD
BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE UP AND AROUND THE
CREST OF A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK-
DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH/BLM




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 172048
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO INTO THE
LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 172048
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO INTO THE
LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 171613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE POPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THUS UPDATED TO PUT MENTION INTO
THE FORECAST. THESE SAME DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS INCREASED POPS THERE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED JUST
BEYOND THE CYCLE AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 171613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE POPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THUS UPDATED TO PUT MENTION INTO
THE FORECAST. THESE SAME DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS INCREASED POPS THERE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED JUST
BEYOND THE CYCLE AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 170900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...MORE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS/SKY COVER...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND AROUND THE
RIDGE CREST THAT PERIODS OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE SKY...ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES.

WINDS...
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM BOTH EARLY AND
LATE WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS.

KGDV...
WITH THE OBSERVATION AT KGDV OUT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND NO
KNOWN RETURN TO SERVICE TIME...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
THERE WITH NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...MORE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS/SKY COVER...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND AROUND THE
RIDGE CREST THAT PERIODS OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE SKY...ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES.

WINDS...
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM BOTH EARLY AND
LATE WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS.

KGDV...
WITH THE OBSERVATION AT KGDV OUT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND NO
KNOWN RETURN TO SERVICE TIME...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
THERE WITH NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170201
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
801 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...NO UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING FAIR SKIES OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
UNLIMITED EARLY ON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15
KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY.
MARTIN/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170201
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
801 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...NO UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING FAIR SKIES OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
UNLIMITED EARLY ON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15
KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY.
MARTIN/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 162033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERAUTRES...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 162033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERAUTRES...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 161613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO COOL
TEMPS JUST A BIT NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER GIVEN A CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. GILCHRIST

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOW THE LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SUSTAINING ITSELF AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND OR SLIGHTLY ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ABSOLUTELY ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SOMETIME LATE ON THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL QPF AND PRECIP
OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
REPRESENT THIS WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR DELAYING AND DRYING TRENDS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO COOL
TEMPS JUST A BIT NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER GIVEN A CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. GILCHRIST

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOW THE LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SUSTAINING ITSELF AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND OR SLIGHTLY ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ABSOLUTELY ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SOMETIME LATE ON THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL QPF AND PRECIP
OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
REPRESENT THIS WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR DELAYING AND DRYING TRENDS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160907
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOW THE LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SUSTAINING ITSELF AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND OR SLIGHTLY ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ABSOLUTELY ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SOMETIME LATE ON THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL QPF AND PRECIP
OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
REPRESENT THIS WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR DELAYING AND DRYING TRENDS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160907
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOW THE LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SUSTAINING ITSELF AND SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND OR SLIGHTLY ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES CLOSER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ABSOLUTELY ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS OUR CWA. WITH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE
AREA WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA SOMETIME LATE ON THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL QPF AND PRECIP
OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
REPRESENT THIS WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS IF THE MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR DELAYING AND DRYING TRENDS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 160251 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AS CLOUDS HAVE STAYED FAR AWAY FROM THE CWA TODAY AND MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM MOST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...I FELT IT COULD NOT HURT TO DROP SKY COVER GRID
COMPLETELY TO ZERO WHERE THIS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS BEST. ENDED UP
CHANGING THE FORECAST WORDING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SEEMS
REASONABLE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL DOMINATE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LEAD TO
CALM AND UN-SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS. RIDGE MAKES GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE CENTRAL AXIS LINED-UP JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING
THROUGH THIS PATTERN...FEW CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
GENERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO MAKE FOR COOL LOWS AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
BE DOWN TO THE LOW 40S TO MID 30S AROUND THE CWA...THOUGH FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE. WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WILL KICK-IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 AND INTO THE MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARTIN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW MOSTLY STANDS. ONLY TWEAKS
WERE TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FOR THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MIDWEEK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FLATTEN AS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. AFTER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE. WESTERN TROF SPLITS
ITS ENERGY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MUCH FLATTER AND WEAKER AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRIDAY. MODELS DRYING OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 160251 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AS CLOUDS HAVE STAYED FAR AWAY FROM THE CWA TODAY AND MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM MOST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...I FELT IT COULD NOT HURT TO DROP SKY COVER GRID
COMPLETELY TO ZERO WHERE THIS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS BEST. ENDED UP
CHANGING THE FORECAST WORDING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. SEEMS
REASONABLE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL DOMINATE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LEAD TO
CALM AND UN-SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS. RIDGE MAKES GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE CENTRAL AXIS LINED-UP JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING
THROUGH THIS PATTERN...FEW CLOUDS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
GENERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO MAKE FOR COOL LOWS AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD
BE DOWN TO THE LOW 40S TO MID 30S AROUND THE CWA...THOUGH FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE. WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WILL KICK-IN FULL
FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 AND INTO THE MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARTIN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW MOSTLY STANDS. ONLY TWEAKS
WERE TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FOR THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MIDWEEK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FLATTEN AS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. AFTER WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE. WESTERN TROF SPLITS
ITS ENERGY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE.
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MUCH FLATTER AND WEAKER AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRIDAY. MODELS DRYING OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities