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000
FXUS65 KGGW 250858
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
MONTANA TODAY. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FIRST OF 2 COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN...WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. GOOD SURFACE MIXING
WILL COMPENSATE MOST OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SO THAT SUNDAY WILL
BE NEARLY OR EQUALLY WARM AS TODAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN THE SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY MORNING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2 TO -3C ON MONDAY WHICH IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER... GOOD MIXING WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FAR ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AND MODELS
KEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WARMER THAN -10C FOR THE MOST PART WHICH
LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS EITHER RAIN MIXED SNOW OR ALL RAIN IN
MOST AREAS. WILL MAKE AN EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS LIKE OPHEIM AND ZORTMAN THAT ARE PRONE TO RECEIVING ALL SNOW
IN THIS SCENARIO. LOOK FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY.  FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY
OUT OF OUR CWA...LEAVING A FEW TRAILING AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ARE BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOWFALL...BUT SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH AND MAY BE MORE INDICATIVE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX. ALTHOUGH
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT
SNOW COULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY. AS THE GROUND HAS NOT HAD A
CHANCE TO FREE AND STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MAYBE A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THAW AGAIN AND PRECIP TO
BE DRIVEN AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THIS SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY AND LEAST CONFIDENCE.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT MAINLY IN SOME CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL
NOT VERY BULLISH ON MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
DIRECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WITH PERIODS OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OR CALM THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BELOW 10 MPH BY SUNSET. BLM


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 241944
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
144 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND STRONG WEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW...WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK ON
SUNDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SITS NORTH OF THE US BORDER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND COMES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT
TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS AND TIMING BUT
THEY DO START DIVERGING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. THE LONG TERM FORECASTER WILL HAVE MORE IN
THEIR DISCUSSION. FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THESE PERIODS AS
EACH MODEL IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING MID LEVEL JETS UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT IS NOT SURE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET RESIDES AS IT
PASSES OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IN TURN AFFECTS LIFT ZONES FOR
AREAS OF FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION FROM QUADRANT DYNAMICS.
CONSEQUENTLY EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT PLACE AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. OVERALL
FEELING IS THAT THIS IS A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT WHICH SHOULD NOT
KICK IN FOR THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AS A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA. THE DEEPENING
WILL DRIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LEADING TO A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DROP
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AT THE SURFACE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... MONDAY NIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
AND HIGH STABLE PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INVERSION WITH STRATIFIED TEMPERATURE PROFILE DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION. BY TUESDAY THE STORM SHOULD HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED
WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADES PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING VARIOUS MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REGION.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE WEST IAROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 241542
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS MORNING WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS ON SATELLITE RIGHT NOW AND I DON`T SEE
THAT DECREASING MUCH TODAY. MAIN SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND THE WINDS ARE PICKING UP BUT
EXPECT THOSE TO DROP OFF BY SUNSET.  FRANSEN

THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS
FORCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS
BEING WRUNG OUT AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL DIRECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. FEEL LIKE 20G30 MPH IS A GOOD BET. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE
AROUND A SIMILAR SOLUTION BRINGING A DEEPER AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINE UP OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SEEM TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADES PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING VARIOUS MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REGION.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE WEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 18Z
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 240916
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS
FORCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS
BEING WRUNG OUT AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL DIRECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. FEEL LIKE 20G30 MPH IS A GOOD BET. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE
AROUND A SIMILAR SOLUTION BRINGING A DEEPER AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINE UP OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SEEM TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADED PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z TODAY. THE WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 232024
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS
LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND
AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: SOME MID CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z FRI. OTHERWISE WINDS DIE
DOWN AROUND 06KT AT SUNSET AND PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 10-15KTS
BTWN 15-18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 231522
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PUSH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN
AND MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE TO OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY. SO INCREASED SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS
AT GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS
SUN (TEMPS WERE 14 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ON THE 15TH...SO THIS CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT). TWEAKED WINDS AROUND GLASGOW AS WEST WINDS PROBABLY
WON/T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED (WITH THE LESSER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230210 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM LAYER MOISTURE MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS THIS INCREASE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT COULD
RESULT MOSTLY AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS USUALLY OF MINIMAL
IMPACT. CHOSE TO INCREASE WORDING TO NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. BMICKELSON

PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT
BUT WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOR FAIR SKIES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFT 18Z LOOK FOR INCREASING
VFR CLOUDINESS. PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230210 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM LAYER MOISTURE MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS THIS INCREASE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT COULD
RESULT MOSTLY AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS USUALLY OF MINIMAL
IMPACT. CHOSE TO INCREASE WORDING TO NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. BMICKELSON

PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT
BUT WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOR FAIR SKIES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFT 18Z LOOK FOR INCREASING
VFR CLOUDINESS. PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 222102
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT BUT
WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
PERIOD. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221735
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO KSDY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
SWEEPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221735
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO KSDY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
SWEEPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221502
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
902 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

LOW CLOUDS VCNTY OF KGGW AND KOLF WILL LIFT TODAY.

WINDS: WILL REMAIN ABOUT CONSTANT TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE ABOUT
SUNSET. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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