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000
FXUS65 KGGW 052141
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
241 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE
RUNNING FROM THE ALBERTA FRONT RANGE DOWN TO NEVADA. DIRECTLY
BEHIND IT IS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WITH COOL PACIFIC AIR MOVING
ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON. BEHIND THAT SETS ANOTHER RIDGE WELL SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
THE ALBERTA RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE MILK VALLEY PATCHY FOG MAY BE ABLE TO
FORM BEFORE SUN-UP. MEANWHILE THE TIP OF THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA BY 6AM.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP A HIGHLY ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AND SEND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND LEAD TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REGION.
GFS IS PEGGING 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AT 60+ MPH WITH LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 8 C/KM THAT COULD MECHANICALLY BRING SOME OF THESE HIGH WINDS
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS COULD REACH UP TO
40 MPH EASILY WITH THIS SYSTEM IN MOST PLACES. GRADIENT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GAH


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER A BIT IN REGARD TO PRECIP FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, SO INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE NE ZONES. WITH ARCTIC AIR
BACKING IN PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES WITH
TUESDAY`S HIGHS NEAR 60, WHILE THE NE ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE UPPER 30S. TFJ


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

WINDS: WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW THROUGH TONIGHT THEN RAMPING UP
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET OF THE RUNWAYS. THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 25-35 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 55.

CLOUDS: AOA 8K FT AGL THROUGH SATURDAY, BRIEFLY LOWER SATURDAY IN
THE VICINTY OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 051632
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE... CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINOR.
SOME FOCUS WAS GIVE TO UPDATING FOR THE LOCAL PATCHY RADIATION FOG
AROUND THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. SO WILL LOOK INTO THAT FURTHER WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME OTHER MINOR UPDATES WERE ADDED TO THE SKY
AND WIND GRIDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CHINOOK DEVELOPING ACROSS ALBERTA SPREADS WARM AIR SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A STACKED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE...WITH TIGHT DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OF THE
50-60KT 850-700MB WINDS...RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
REGION...BEGINNING IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BUT INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS RAIN. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS...COULD GET A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WHICH REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ISOLOTED PATCHES OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF WITH VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 051632
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE... CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINOR.
SOME FOCUS WAS GIVE TO UPDATING FOR THE LOCAL PATCHY RADIATION FOG
AROUND THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. SO WILL LOOK INTO THAT FURTHER WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME OTHER MINOR UPDATES WERE ADDED TO THE SKY
AND WIND GRIDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CHINOOK DEVELOPING ACROSS ALBERTA SPREADS WARM AIR SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A STACKED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE...WITH TIGHT DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OF THE
50-60KT 850-700MB WINDS...RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
REGION...BEGINNING IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BUT INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS RAIN. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS...COULD GET A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WHICH REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ISOLOTED PATCHES OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF WITH VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 051632
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE... CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE MINOR.
SOME FOCUS WAS GIVE TO UPDATING FOR THE LOCAL PATCHY RADIATION FOG
AROUND THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. SO WILL LOOK INTO THAT FURTHER WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME OTHER MINOR UPDATES WERE ADDED TO THE SKY
AND WIND GRIDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CHINOOK DEVELOPING ACROSS ALBERTA SPREADS WARM AIR SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A STACKED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE...WITH TIGHT DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OF THE
50-60KT 850-700MB WINDS...RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
REGION...BEGINNING IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BUT INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS RAIN. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS...COULD GET A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WHICH REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ISOLOTED PATCHES OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF WITH VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 051116
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CHINOOK DEVELOPING ACROSS ALBERTA SPREADS WARM AIR SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A STACKED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE...WITH TIGHT DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OF THE
50-60KT 850-700MB WINDS...RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
REGION...BEGINNING IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BUT INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS RAIN. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS...COULD GET A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WHICH REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL DEPART THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ENDING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 051116
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CHINOOK DEVELOPING ACROSS ALBERTA SPREADS WARM AIR SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A STACKED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE...WITH TIGHT DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OF THE
50-60KT 850-700MB WINDS...RESULTING IN 30 TO 40 MPH SURFACE WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
REGION...BEGINNING IN THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AND IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BUT INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
AS RAIN. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG
WINDS...COULD GET A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WHICH REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LARGE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STALL
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INITIALLY WEST OF NE MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST NUDGING THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MODELS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY ENDING UP EAST OF NE MONTANA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLACES NE MONTANA IN A WARM AND DRY NW FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE
DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EACH NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING...WHILE
EACH DAY TMAX WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MID-WEEK A DISTURBANCE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO NE MONTANA. LIMITED OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF THE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MISS US FARTHER TO THE EAST.

WHAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SPLITTING
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC-NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOT YET CLEAR ON TIMING AND LOCATION FOR NE MONTANA.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL DEPART THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ENDING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 050344
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
844 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BRING THE FORECAST AROUND TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT AS IT SPINS UP A BIT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT
EXTENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NW WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA FRIDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SWING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH WITH SOME PEAKING OVER 40 POSSIBLE. 850
MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS SO IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. LAPSE RATES
DIDN/T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN A WEATHER STORY/HWO.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT OPHEIM TO PLENTYWOOD. IF WINDS COMBINE WITH
THESE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
BLOWING SNOW. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOCUSED ON INCRFEASING POPS AROUND THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE RATHER STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND NEARLY 30 MPH
SUSTAINED. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY.
AROUND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH A PASSING RIDGE AND
NEEDED TO BUMP HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...


A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION
NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING. MOST SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
END BEFORE 12Z. WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RESULTING
RESTRICTIONS...WILL AMEND PER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS.

SURFACE WINDS: EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHWEST 10KT
TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 050344
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
844 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BRING THE FORECAST AROUND TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT AS IT SPINS UP A BIT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT
EXTENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NW WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA FRIDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SWING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH WITH SOME PEAKING OVER 40 POSSIBLE. 850
MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS SO IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. LAPSE RATES
DIDN/T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN A WEATHER STORY/HWO.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT OPHEIM TO PLENTYWOOD. IF WINDS COMBINE WITH
THESE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
BLOWING SNOW. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOCUSED ON INCRFEASING POPS AROUND THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE RATHER STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND NEARLY 30 MPH
SUSTAINED. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY.
AROUND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH A PASSING RIDGE AND
NEEDED TO BUMP HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...


A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION
NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING. MOST SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
END BEFORE 12Z. WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RESULTING
RESTRICTIONS...WILL AMEND PER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS.

SURFACE WINDS: EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHWEST 10KT
TONIGHT...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 042112
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT AS IT SPINS UP A BIT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT
EXTENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NW WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA FRIDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SWING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH WITH SOME PEAKING OVER 40 POSSIBLE. 850
MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS SO IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. LAPSE RATES
DIDN/T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN A WEATHER STORY/HWO.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT OPHEIM TO PLENTYWOOD. IF WINDS COMBINE WITH
THESE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
BLOWING SNOW. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOCUSED ON INCREASING POPS AROUND THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE RATHER STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND NEARLY 30 MPH
SUSTAINED. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY. AROUND
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH A PASSING RIDGE AND NEEDED
TO BUMP HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...


SYNOPSIS: A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING LOWERING CEILINGS AND
DROPS IN VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. IMPACTS SHOULD END BY
12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

WX: WHILE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY. WILL AMEND AS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
DEEM NECESSARY.

SURFACE WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 042112
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT AS IT SPINS UP A BIT. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT
EXTENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NW WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA FRIDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AND INTO MONTANA
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SWING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH WITH SOME PEAKING OVER 40 POSSIBLE. 850
MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 KTS SO IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, GUSTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. LAPSE RATES
DIDN/T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN A WEATHER STORY/HWO.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT OPHEIM TO PLENTYWOOD. IF WINDS COMBINE WITH
THESE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
BLOWING SNOW. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOCUSED ON INCREASING POPS AROUND THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE RATHER STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND NEARLY 30 MPH
SUSTAINED. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY. AROUND
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH A PASSING RIDGE AND NEEDED
TO BUMP HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...


SYNOPSIS: A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING LOWERING CEILINGS AND
DROPS IN VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. IMPACTS SHOULD END BY
12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

WX: WHILE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY. WILL AMEND AS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
DEEM NECESSARY.

SURFACE WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 041610
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING A BIT MORE ECHOES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY THE
CENTRAL ZONES. TRIMMED AFTERNOON POPS A BIT OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES WITH MODELS SLOWING THINGS UP A BIT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN MOST AREAS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW ZONES
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARM
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN MOST AREAS AND SNOW COVER IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE
THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN BY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE DAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD TURN THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS BY EVENING. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...


SYNOPSIS: A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING LOWERING CEILINGS AND
DROPS IN VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. IMPACTS SHOULD END BY
12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

WX: WHILE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY. WILL AMEND AS RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
DEEM NECESSARY.

SURFACE WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 040935
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
235 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN MOST AREAS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW ZONES
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 40 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARM
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN MOST AREAS AND SNOW COVER IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE
THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN BY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE DAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD TURN THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS BY EVENING. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE SOME
SHORT-LIVED BUT POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE
LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DOWN TO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NEEDED BUT WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST
CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...A LARGE AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND STALL OVER THE WESTERN STATES...PLACING NE MONTANA
IN A WARM AND DRY NW OR N FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT A NW TO SE DIVIDING LINE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SW. EVEN
THOUGH EACH NIGHT WILL RE-FREEZE...EACH DAY WILL EASILY THAW OVER
OUR SW ZONES AND BARELY THAW OVER OUR NE ZONES. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH THE OFF CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING RETURNING TO A FEW AREAS...MAYBE KOLF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY. MICKELSON



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 040233 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
733 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT...MERELY TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY
TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES AND WIND BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE A COMEBACK
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING MUCH LESS EVIDENCE OF ITS RETURN
COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO. WILL HOLD OF ON MENTIONING ANY
OVERNIGHT FOG AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR IT. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN MONTANA
IS BEING FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THUS WILL
BRING CLOUDS BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SKETCHY. THE NAM AND THE GFS
ARE BEING MORE GENEROUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO OUR EAST AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NW FRIDAY.

PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW. SO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MAY
HAVE TO CONTENT WITH THIS IN THE MORNING THEN THE NE ZONES WOULD
HAVE THAT THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG RANGE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BETTER ASSESS WINDY
PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING
LOWER. DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE WHAT
ESTABLISHED TRENDS RESULT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT MAY COME ABOUT WITH THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A LARGELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...DRIVING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH THE OFF CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG
RETURNING TO SOME AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MALIAWCO/MICKELSON



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 032129
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN MONTANA IS BEING FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AND THUS WILL BRING CLOUDS BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SKETCHY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BEING MORE GENEROUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS DRIER THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO OUR EAST AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NW FRIDAY.

PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW. SO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MAY
HAVE TO CONTENT WITH THIS IN THE MORNING THEN THE NE ZONES WOULD
HAVE THAT THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG RANGE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BETTER ASSESS WINDY
PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING
LOWER. DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE WHAT
ESTABLISHED TRENDS RESULT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT MAY COME ABOUT WITH THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A LARGELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...DRIVING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 032129
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN MONTANA IS BEING FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AND THUS WILL BRING CLOUDS BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SKETCHY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BEING MORE GENEROUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS DRIER THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO OUR EAST AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NW FRIDAY.

PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW. SO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MAY
HAVE TO CONTENT WITH THIS IN THE MORNING THEN THE NE ZONES WOULD
HAVE THAT THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG RANGE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BETTER ASSESS WINDY
PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING
LOWER. DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE WHAT
ESTABLISHED TRENDS RESULT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT MAY COME ABOUT WITH THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A LARGELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...DRIVING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 032129
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN MONTANA IS BEING FLATTENED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AND THUS WILL BRING CLOUDS BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SKETCHY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BEING MORE GENEROUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS DRIER THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO OUR EAST AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NW FRIDAY.

PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW. SO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MAY
HAVE TO CONTENT WITH THIS IN THE MORNING THEN THE NE ZONES WOULD
HAVE THAT THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG RANGE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BETTER ASSESS WINDY
PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING
LOWER. DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE FOR NOW TO SEE WHAT
ESTABLISHED TRENDS RESULT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT MAY COME ABOUT WITH THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A LARGELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...DRIVING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 031624
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW THE CLOUDS WILL BEHAVE TODAY.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING SW OF A MALTA TO GLENDIVE LINE WHILE
THE NE ZONES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY.

OTHERWISE...SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER S SASK LOOK TO DROP SE ACROSS
THE NE ZONES TODAY, SO ADDED MENTION OF THAT.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT FLURRIES AND
LOW CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
TOUCHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS CREATING DENSE FOG. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z (11 AM MST).

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING SOMEWHAT NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THAT IDEA. IF ANYTHING
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG
FOR THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 031624
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW THE CLOUDS WILL BEHAVE TODAY.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING SW OF A MALTA TO GLENDIVE LINE WHILE
THE NE ZONES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY.

OTHERWISE...SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER S SASK LOOK TO DROP SE ACROSS
THE NE ZONES TODAY, SO ADDED MENTION OF THAT.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT FLURRIES AND
LOW CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
TOUCHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS CREATING DENSE FOG. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z (11 AM MST).

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING SOMEWHAT NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THAT IDEA. IF ANYTHING
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG
FOR THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 030953
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
253 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT FLURRIES AND
LOW CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
TOUCHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS CREATING DENSE FOG. WILL
CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z (11 AM MST).

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING SOMEWHAT NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FOCUS
ON THE PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM OR UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE PACNW REGION TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID-FIRE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE AND COULD EASILY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP
INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW PRIMARILY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.

THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PRESSURE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP WITH AND FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WIND
WARNING PRODUCT WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STARTING NEXT WEEK...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THAWING
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NE MONTANA...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KSDY
AND KGDV. PERIODS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH AMENDMENTS NEED FOR THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEARING
BY MID-DAY AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO FOG LATER TONIGHT. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...
MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 030330
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
830 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO SWITCH THE WIND OVER THE WEST
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
POP UP AROUND THE REGION HOWEVER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
WILL BE VERY SMALL.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN EVIDENT ON RADAR
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE EVENING HOURS
UNFOLD. IN FACT...SKY CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST
LATE TO NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A
DUSTING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THANKS TO THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE CARDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY
SEE HIGHS APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK BY
THURSDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD
BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND A DROP IN TEMPERATURES. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHINOOK WARMING TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.

FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

THE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO/MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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