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000
FXUS65 KGGW 311023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
423 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES
TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GET A GOOD BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TONIGHT WITH A RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE BEGINNING FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE LOW
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEST COAST TROF. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

STORM SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING. CURRENT SOLUTIONS
KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WARM DRY
AIR BEING PULLED NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
AND FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A 00Z RUN OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY SUPPORT A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM
ABRUPTLY MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAST MOTION...DO
NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. RIGHT NOW THE LITTLE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND PLACES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUCH AS OPHEIM
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSLATES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT IT LOSES INFLUENCE ON THE
CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS DOWN SOME WITH THIS
PACKAGE GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...AM
CAUTIOUS GIVEN THAT THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND MODEL SOLUTIONS CAN CERTAINLY WOBBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
CYCLES. CONFIDENCE WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE IF FUTURE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MONTANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL HAVE AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL OTHER THAN SUBTLE AND
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AT
TIMES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO FALL MUCH FURTHER OVERNIGHT. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WHAT
HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. THESE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE COVERED THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND EXTEND EAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SCENARIOS ON
WHEN WE CLEAR OUT WITH THE NAM FAMILIES SEEMING TO VERIFY SO FAR.
WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE NAM AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL CREATE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING THE MID TEENS *C BUT LACK OF MIXING WILL NOT
TRANSLATE MUCH OF THAT WARMTH TO THE GROUND. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S NORTH WITH 60S SOUTH. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SPENT SOME TIME UPDATING THE FORECAST TODAY FOR THIS COMING LATE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM AS EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE BEST CONSENSUS
THEN AND IT COULD BE OF SOME IMPACT TO THE AREA.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE LAST STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST WEEKEND...THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE JUST A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TO IT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS STRONGER
AND DIGS DEEPER INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGIONS ON SATURDAY...THEN EJECTS NORTHEAST-WARD OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN...NORTHWESTERN...AND
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW COMING IN BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES THE STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATES FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME PLACES
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES...1
TO 3 INCHES NEAR OPHEIM...AND UNDER 1 INCH ELSEWHERE. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
IT IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY FROM NOW AND TOO EARLY TO CALL. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT
TO INITIATE A PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A
WET AND COLD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS
WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AND FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO
THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MVFR OR EVEN BORDERLINE IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS BY MORNING THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-25KTS THROUGH
MORNING. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 302049
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
COVERED THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND EXTEND EAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SCENARIOS ON WHEN WE CLEAR
OUT WITH THE NAM FAMILIES SEEMING TO VERIFY SO FAR. WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THE NAM AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL CREATE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING THE MID TEENS *C BUT LACK OF MIXING WILL NOT
TRANSLATE MUCH OF THAT WARMTH TO THE GROUND. THEREFORE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S NORTH WITH 60S SOUTH. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SPENT SOME TIME UPDATING THE FORECAST TODAY FOR THIS COMING LATE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM AS EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE BEST CONSENSUS
THEN AND IT COULD BE OF SOME IMPACT TO THE AREA.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE LAST STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST WEEKEND...THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE JUST A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TO IT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEMS STRONGER
AND DIGS DEEPER INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
REGIONS ON SATURDAY...THEN EJECTS NORTHEAST-WARD OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN...NORTHWESTERN...AND
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW COMING IN BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES THE STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATES FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME PLACES
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES...1
TO 3 INCHES NEAR OPHEIM...AND UNDER 1 INCH ELSEWHERE. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
IT IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY FROM NOW AND TOO EARLY TO CALL. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE ENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A PATTERN CHANGE.
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO
CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND FURTHER ON MONDAY.
READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN
VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY
NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

VISIBLE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK STILL IN PLACE OVER THE TAF SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS MVFR STRATUS DECK BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR UNDER A
MOSTLY A CLEAR SKY THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE WINDS IN THE 25G35 KT RANGE BY FRIDAY MID-DAY. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
MCCONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST HANDLING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WELL...BUT SOME OF
THE MESO-MODELS SHOWING THAT IT MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...SO
EXTENDED THEM IN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE POOR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LAPSE RATES...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRELIMINARY WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA...EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SENDING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A
PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG/MIST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. SCT/BLM

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300953
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
353 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE POOR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LAPSE RATES...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRELIMINARY WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA...EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SENDING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A
PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG/MIST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WIND TODAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 300206
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
806 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT
FOR THE APPROACHING STRATUS DECK FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE THE
ONLY OTHER TWEAK WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
WITH THE STRATUS DECK LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IN
IT/S WAKE...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME A LITTLE UNSTABLE AND WEST WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AND FLURRIES DEEPER IN THE COLDER AIR (OVER THE NE ZONES).

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AS THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BUCKLES AND NORTHERLY FLOW FORMS
ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF A BUILDING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 15
DEGREES UNDER TODAY/S READINGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL TIGHTEN AND THUS
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
NIGHT WERE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY RESIDES IN THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. JET STREAMS ARE BEING FLAKY AND CHANGING
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIODS. PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR THIS BY DOING A BLEND OF
GFS/CMC/ECMWF/DGEX QPF FOR ANY PARTICULAR 6 HOUR PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HIT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER THAT. ADIABATIC PROCESSES MAY PRODUCES SNOW EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS AS CURRENT SNOW LEVEL OPTIONS SEEM
TOO HIGH TO REACH THE SURFACE. HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO REDUCE
RADIATIVE COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS.
GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG- WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR THROUGH 06Z. MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AFTER.

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE MT/ND/SK TRIPLE
POINT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. THIS LINE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

VISIBILITY: MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY DROPS AT THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING CLOUD DECK
INTERFACE. AS THE CLOUD DECK MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH CEILINGS SHOULD SHOULD RISE AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY.

AREA WINDS: 10 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST... CALMING AFTER
SUNDOWN TO LESS AND 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 292018
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IN IT/S WAKE...ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE UNSTABLE AND WEST WINDS HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCES...A COLD FRONT
HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AND FLURRIES DEEPER IN THE COLDER AIR (OVER THE NE ZONES).

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AS THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BUCKLES AND NORTHERLY FLOW FORMS
ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF A BUILDING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 15
DEGREES UNDER TODAY/S READINGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL TIGHTEN AND THUS
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
NIGHT WERE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY RESIDES IN THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. JET STREAMS ARE BEING FLAKY AND CHANGING
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIODS. PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR THIS BY DOING A BLEND OF
GFS/CMC/ECMWF/DGEX QPF FOR ANY PARTICULAR 6 HOUR PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HIT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER THAT. ADIABATIC PROCESSES MAY PRODUCES SNOW EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS AS CURRENT SNOW LEVEL OPTIONS SEEM
TOO HIGH TO REACH THE SURFACE. HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO REDUCE
RADIATIVE COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS.
GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG- WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR THROUGH 06Z. MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AFTER.

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE MT/ND/SK TRIPLE
POINT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. THIS LINE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

VISIBILITY: MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY DROPS AT THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING CLOUD DECK
INTERFACE. AS THE CLOUD DECK MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH CEILINGS SHOULD SHOULD RISE AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY.

AREA WINDS: 10 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST... CALMING AFTER
SUNDOWN TO LESS AND 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291426
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFRESH THE POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
MAINLY FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GLENDIVE AREA. REST OF FORECAST
LEFT MAINLY UNCHANGED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SO EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ALONG WITH A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH LAKE WIND
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE.

WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AS TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY JET DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL BE
HAMPERED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER THIS MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL TEMPORARILY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS MORNING....THEN UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ALONG WITH
A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED THE
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AS TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY JET DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL BE
HAMPERED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER THIS MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL TEMPORARILY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS MORNING....THEN UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290233
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
833 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE EVIDENT ON
RADAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. CURRENT TIMING PLACES THESE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THUS UPDATED TO ADD MENTION TO THE FORECAST.
ONLY OTHER TWEAK WORTH NOTING WAS TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPS
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 20S. TEMPS THERE SHOULD MODERATE SOME
AS CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN LATER ON TONIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD
DESCRIBED AS FAST AND MAINLY ZONAL BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW.

STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING EAST AND WAS JUST EAST OF
A WOLF POINT-GLENDIVE LINE AT 145 PM. IN IT/S WAKE WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS CAN SOMETIMES LEAD
TO FOG BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD MIX THINGS UP LATER TONIGHT TO
PREVENT THAT.

SAID DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.05" IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION) AND WITH PRECIP MAINLY DRIVEN BY UPPER
DYNAMICS...PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME IS A BIT CHALLENGING. OTHERWISE...
LEANED ON SREF SOLUTION AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE WIND POSSIBILITIES.

THEN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL PUSH COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED LONG TERM TO ADJUST TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BASED ON LATEST EC AND GFS GUIDANCE. EC AND
GFS AGREEMENT NOT BAD THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EC MODEL
DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BETTER AND HAS MORE PPT. THE EC ALSO
MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY...ENDING PPT BY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. THE EC
MODEL IS ALSO COLDER AND HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SNOW.

WITH THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 540 DAM ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...IF LOW-LEVELS CAN COOL ENOUGH.

SOMEWHAT WINDY FRIDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WITH A HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP IMPROVE MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WINDS RELAX SOME ON SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A
FROPA SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK THEN EDGE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING
EASTWARD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY PASSAGE THOUGH EASTERN
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STACKED LOW FOR GOOD LIFT...ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. TIMING BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING. EC IS SLOWING DOWN WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS
MONTANA AND CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL AS A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT TONIGHT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10-15KT BY MORNING. THEN ON WEDNESDAY WIND
BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15-25KT AS A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 282052
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD DESCRIBED AS FAST AND MAINLY ZONAL BUT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TOMORROW.

STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING EAST AND WAS JUST EAST OF
A WOLF POINT-GLENDIVE LINE AT 145 PM. IN IT/S WAKE WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS CAN SOMETIMES LEAD
TO FOG BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD MIX THINGS UP LATER TONIGHT TO
PREVENT THAT.

SAID DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.05" IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION) AND WITH PRECIP MAINLY DRIVEN BY UPPER
DYNAMICS...PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME IS A BIT CHALLENGING. OTHERWISE...
LEANED ON SREF SOLUTION AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE WIND POSSIBILITIES.

THEN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL PUSH COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED LONG TERM TO ADJUST TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BASED ON LATEST EC AND GFS GUIDANCE. EC AND
GFS AGREEMENT NOT BAD THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EC MODEL
DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BETTER AND HAS MORE PPT. THE EC ALSO
MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY...ENDING PPT BY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. THE EC
MODEL IS ALSO COLDER AND HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SNOW.

WITH THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 540 DAM ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...IF LOW-LEVELS CAN COOL ENOUGH.

SOMEWHAT WINDY FRIDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WITH A HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP IMPROVE MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WINDS RELAX SOME ON SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A
FROPA SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK THEN EDGE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING
EASTWARD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY PASSAGE THOUGH EASTERN
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STACKED LOW FOR GOOD LIFT...ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. TIMING BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING. EC IS SLOWING DOWN WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS
MONTANA AND CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 2000
FT PERSISTS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER...AREA
CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT IN
ALL AREAS IN A FEW HOURS.

CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL AS A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BACK TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281537
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
937 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY REFRESHED SKY GRIDS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE
WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT WHILE CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES IN THE MORNING. SO THE DAY WILL BEGIN COLD. SURFACE
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED WITH POOR MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
HIGHS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN MONDAY. HOWEVER WIND WILL
NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE WEAK RIDGE WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE. BUT THE THE NORTHWEST WIND FROM THE DISTURBANCE
WILL IMPROVE MIXING WITH THE WARMER AIR TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN
THE WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE. THE COLD BOUNDARY
IS PUSHED SOUTHWEST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. CLEARING NIGHT SKIES BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. DAYTIME
RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE EAST.
SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROF DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK THEN EDGE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING
EASTWARD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY PASSAGE THOUGH EASTERN
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STACKED LOW FOR GOOD LIFT...ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. TIMING BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING. EC IS SLOWING DOWN WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS
MONTANA AND CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING DOWN TO
2000 FT AGL WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE. CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL AS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BACK TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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