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000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










000
FXUS65 KGGW 201533
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...EXCELLENT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP TEMPS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH GIVEN WARM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM
NEW MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN
THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201533
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...EXCELLENT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP TEMPS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH GIVEN WARM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM
NEW MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN
THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 200859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH
A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 200859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH
A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 200141
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
741 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND CONTINING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 200141
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
741 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND CONTINING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 192023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE
LEFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE
IS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
FLOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 192023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE
LEFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE
IS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
FLOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 182022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 182022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181513 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A VERY SHALLOW DISTURBANCE KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN TODAY. HOWEVER
IMPROVED MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
YESTERDAY...INTO THE 60S TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO TO CREATE A WIND SHIFT
TODAY TO THE WEST. OVERALL...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH JUST DOWN THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EQUALLY LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS THOUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES ON THE EDGE OF THIS INCOMING
RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST...AN EQUALLY LONG
BUT WEAKER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPLIT IN
TWO WITH THE NORTHERN IMPULSE DIMINISHING AND RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF THE RIDGE. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURES CHANGE DUE TO COLD AIR MIXING OUT. LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO ANY MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY RAIN FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA OR NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR A SLOW STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181513 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A VERY SHALLOW DISTURBANCE KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN TODAY. HOWEVER
IMPROVED MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
YESTERDAY...INTO THE 60S TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO TO CREATE A WIND SHIFT
TODAY TO THE WEST. OVERALL...A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH JUST DOWN THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EQUALLY LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS THOUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES ON THE EDGE OF THIS INCOMING
RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST...AN EQUALLY LONG
BUT WEAKER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPLIT IN
TWO WITH THE NORTHERN IMPULSE DIMINISHING AND RIDING AROUND THE
EDGES OF THE RIDGE. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURES CHANGE DUE TO COLD AIR MIXING OUT. LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO ANY MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY RAIN FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA OR NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR A SLOW STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180947
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH JUST DOWN THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EQUALLY LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS THOUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES ON THE EDGE OF THIS INCOMING
RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST... AN EQUALLY LONG
BUT WEAKER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPLIT
IN TWO WITH THE NORTHERN IMPULSE DIMINISHING AND RIDING AROUND
THE EDGES OF THE RIDGE. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURES CHANGE DUE TO COLD AIR MIXING OUT. LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO ANY MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY RAIN FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA OR NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR A SLOW STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA MAY BACK INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 180947
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH JUST DOWN THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EQUALLY LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS THOUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES ON THE EDGE OF THIS INCOMING
RIDGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST... AN EQUALLY LONG
BUT WEAKER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SPLIT
IN TWO WITH THE NORTHERN IMPULSE DIMINISHING AND RIDING AROUND
THE EDGES OF THE RIDGE. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURES CHANGE DUE TO COLD AIR MIXING OUT. LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO TAP INTO ANY MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY RAIN FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA OR NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR A SLOW STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA MAY BACK INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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