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000
FXUS65 KGGW 060125
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
725 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE FIRST FOCUSED AROUND INCREASING POPS.
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE YELLOWSTONE ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
EXITING ENTIRELY BY THE LATE MORNING. SECOND FOCUS WAS ON WINDS
WHICH ARE QUICKLY DYING OFF THIS EVENING. UPDATING THE GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST MESOSCALE DATA CLEARLY POINTED TOWARDS ELIMINATING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS EVERYTHING CALMS DOWN. THE FINAL ITEM OF
FOCUS WAS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WHICH IS STILL SHOWING HAZE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE SMOKE OF SASKATCHEWAN. LOCAL ASOS OBS HAVE
THE HAZE DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 8 SM. HAZE WAS PUT IN THROUGH NOON
FOR THIS.

FIRES WITH CONTINUOUS SMOKE BILLOWING OUT OF THEM ARE ALSO
STILL EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...
THIS WILL FORCE A RETHINKING OF THESE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND MAY
EXTEND HAZE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.
GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE BASE OF A
TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 555DM WHILE
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. SO WITH CAA...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. ALSO THE LAST
OF MOST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY MORNING MIGHT SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME DRY BY AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FAR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN
LOW SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEMONT. THIS FRONT REACHES
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z WED. THEREFORE A FEW STORMS COULD
BE INITIATED LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KGDV THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TFJ/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 060125
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
725 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE FIRST FOCUSED AROUND INCREASING POPS.
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE YELLOWSTONE ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
EXITING ENTIRELY BY THE LATE MORNING. SECOND FOCUS WAS ON WINDS
WHICH ARE QUICKLY DYING OFF THIS EVENING. UPDATING THE GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST MESOSCALE DATA CLEARLY POINTED TOWARDS ELIMINATING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS EVERYTHING CALMS DOWN. THE FINAL ITEM OF
FOCUS WAS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WHICH IS STILL SHOWING HAZE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE SMOKE OF SASKATCHEWAN. LOCAL ASOS OBS HAVE
THE HAZE DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 8 SM. HAZE WAS PUT IN THROUGH NOON
FOR THIS.

FIRES WITH CONTINUOUS SMOKE BILLOWING OUT OF THEM ARE ALSO
STILL EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...
THIS WILL FORCE A RETHINKING OF THESE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND MAY
EXTEND HAZE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.
GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE BASE OF A
TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 555DM WHILE
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. SO WITH CAA...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. ALSO THE LAST
OF MOST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY MORNING MIGHT SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME DRY BY AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FAR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN
LOW SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEMONT. THIS FRONT REACHES
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z WED. THEREFORE A FEW STORMS COULD
BE INITIATED LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KGDV THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TFJ/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 052029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE BASE OF A
TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 555DM WHILE
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. SO WITH CAA...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. ALSO THE LAST
OF MOST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY MORNING MIGHT SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME DRY BY AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FAR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN
LOW SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEMONT. THIS FRONT REACHES
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z WED. THEREFORE A FEW STORMS COULD
BE INITIATED LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF
WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES.

SMOKE: SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OFF
AND ON REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO 3-5 SM AT TIMES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN STRONGER SHOWERS...
BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AREA WINDS: NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 KTS GILCHRIST

&&

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 052029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE BASE OF A
TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 555DM WHILE
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. SO WITH CAA...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. ALSO THE LAST
OF MOST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MONDAY MORNING MIGHT SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME DRY BY AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FAR WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN
LOW SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEMONT. THIS FRONT REACHES
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z WED. THEREFORE A FEW STORMS COULD
BE INITIATED LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE AS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF
WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES.

SMOKE: SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OFF
AND ON REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO 3-5 SM AT TIMES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN STRONGER SHOWERS...
BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AREA WINDS: NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 KTS GILCHRIST

&&

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 051759 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1159 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WHICH WERE OBSERVED ON THE LAKE. SCT

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES.

SMOKE: SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OFF
AND ON REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO 3-5 SM AT TIMES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AREA WINDS: NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 KTS GILCHRIST

&&

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 051759 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1159 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WHICH WERE OBSERVED ON THE LAKE. SCT

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES.

SMOKE: SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OFF
AND ON REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO 3-5 SM AT TIMES.

SHOWERS: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AREA WINDS: NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 KTS GILCHRIST

&&

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 051503 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS IS NEAR
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE SMOKE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT ON METARS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS...EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

SHOWERS: EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
TAPERING OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN
STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 051503 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS IS NEAR
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE SMOKE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT ON METARS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS...EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

SHOWERS: EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
TAPERING OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN
STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 051503 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS IS NEAR
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE SMOKE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT ON METARS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS...EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

SHOWERS: EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
TAPERING OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN
STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 051503 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BUSY VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOW
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM...RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE. SO WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED WX TYPE TO COVERAGE. ALSO
REVEALED IS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THAT IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERN
SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
RANGE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIASADJ. FINALLY
OFF TO THE WEST THE UPPER FLOW HAS ENTRAINED ADDITIONAL SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE. WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3SM TO 7SM THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SMOKE TO THE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY. THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS IS NEAR
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL TOPPLE
OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE SMOKE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT ON METARS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS...EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

SHOWERS: EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
TAPERING OFF SOME THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN -RA IN
STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 051007
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
407 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT
ON METARS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT
ARRIVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: RADAR TRENDS FOR STORMS IN THE AREA
CURRENTLY SHOW THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH. A FEW
CELLS MAY BE SEVERE BUT OTHER THAN KGDV... SEVERE IS QUICKLY
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS RAIN SHOWERS TAKE HOLD.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING... BACKING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. VARIABLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 051007
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
407 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER. COLD AIR ADVECTION
COULD ALSO AID IN MIXING WINDS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAKE WIND CRITERIA.

DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS MONTANA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES OVER TO THE HIGH PLAIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA. A LARGE HOT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUN UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SETS A CLOSED LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THESE PERIODS WILL BE DRY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IF ANY AT
ALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THIS GROUPING AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST THICKENS AND FILLS INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY.
THE APEX OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
IS NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL
TOPPLE OVER WITH A SHORTWAVE AND MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY AND
A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD ARRIVE AT LATER DURING THESE
PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE DESTABILIZED AREA. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM OVER REGINA AND SWIFT CURRENT
ON METARS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT
ARRIVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: RADAR TRENDS FOR STORMS IN THE AREA
CURRENTLY SHOW THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH. A FEW
CELLS MAY BE SEVERE BUT OTHER THAN KGDV... SEVERE IS QUICKLY
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS RAIN SHOWERS TAKE HOLD.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING... BACKING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. VARIABLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 050311
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AT 9 PM...SOUTHERN ALBERTA THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO MAKE IN-ROADS
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THEY HAVE REACHED HILL COUNTY
AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY BY 11 PM. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE STRONG AS THEY TAP INTO A A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THAT MEANS THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL HAVE TO WORK HARDER TO COUNTERACT THE INVERSION AT THE
LOW LEVELS.

UPDATED EARLIER AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST. WINDS BEHIND THESE WERE FROM THE NE
AND WILL HAVE SEE IF SMOKE MOVES IN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT OF THIS BREAKDOWN ARE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A WOLF POINT TO TERRY LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. HOWEVER LATER ON THIS EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OUT OF
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY TO WESTERN MONTANA THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME...HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. HOT HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE FAR WEST AS A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL RESULT IN TMINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BEING TO REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND TO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW FINALLY DECIDE TO MOVE
ASHORE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THAN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS BUT TIMING IS
SIMILAR.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DRY OUT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE THERE WERE FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE
SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY START TO
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

SEVERE: SPC HAS KEPT MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SO THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH INCOMING SHOWERS
RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP
THAT WOULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

AREA WINDS: NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...
BACKING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 050311
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AT 9 PM...SOUTHERN ALBERTA THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO MAKE IN-ROADS
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THEY HAVE REACHED HILL COUNTY
AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY BY 11 PM. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE STRONG AS THEY TAP INTO A A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THAT MEANS THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL HAVE TO WORK HARDER TO COUNTERACT THE INVERSION AT THE
LOW LEVELS.

UPDATED EARLIER AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST. WINDS BEHIND THESE WERE FROM THE NE
AND WILL HAVE SEE IF SMOKE MOVES IN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT OF THIS BREAKDOWN ARE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A WOLF POINT TO TERRY LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. HOWEVER LATER ON THIS EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OUT OF
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY TO WESTERN MONTANA THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME...HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. HOT HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE FAR WEST AS A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL RESULT IN TMINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BEING TO REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND TO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW FINALLY DECIDE TO MOVE
ASHORE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THAN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS BUT TIMING IS
SIMILAR.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DRY OUT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE THERE WERE FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE
SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY START TO
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

SEVERE: SPC HAS KEPT MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SO THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH INCOMING SHOWERS
RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP
THAT WOULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

AREA WINDS: NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...
BACKING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 050311
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AT 9 PM...SOUTHERN ALBERTA THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO MAKE IN-ROADS
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. THEY HAVE REACHED HILL COUNTY
AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY BY 11 PM. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE STRONG AS THEY TAP INTO A A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THAT MEANS THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL HAVE TO WORK HARDER TO COUNTERACT THE INVERSION AT THE
LOW LEVELS.

UPDATED EARLIER AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST. WINDS BEHIND THESE WERE FROM THE NE
AND WILL HAVE SEE IF SMOKE MOVES IN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT OF THIS BREAKDOWN ARE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A WOLF POINT TO TERRY LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
LIFT INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. HOWEVER LATER ON THIS EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OUT OF
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY TO WESTERN MONTANA THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME...HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. HOT HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE FAR WEST AS A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL RESULT IN TMINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BEING TO REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND TO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW FINALLY DECIDE TO MOVE
ASHORE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THAN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS BUT TIMING IS
SIMILAR.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DRY OUT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE THERE WERE FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR.

SMOKE: VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE
SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CLEAR SOME OF THIS BEFORE IT ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
IF IT IS NOT CLEARED BY THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS... EXPECT THE
SMOKE TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY START TO
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

SEVERE: SPC HAS KEPT MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SO THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH INCOMING SHOWERS
RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP
THAT WOULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

AREA WINDS: NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING...
BACKING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 042038
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT OF THIS BREAKDOWN
ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF A WOLF POINT TO TERRY LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
LATER ON THIS EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING MOST OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY TO WESTERN MONTANA THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME...HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. HOT HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE FAR WEST AS A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL RESULT IN TMINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BEING TO REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND TO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW FINALLY DECIDE TO MOVE
ASHORE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THAN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS BUT TIMING IS
SIMILAR.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DRY OUT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE THERE WERE FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 042038
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE RESULT OF THIS BREAKDOWN
ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF A WOLF POINT TO TERRY LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
LATER ON THIS EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OUT OF SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING MOST OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY TO WESTERN MONTANA THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME...HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY LOW. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. HOT HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE FAR WEST AS A CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL RESULT IN TMINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BEING TO REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND TO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW FINALLY DECIDE TO MOVE
ASHORE. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THAN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS BUT TIMING IS
SIMILAR.

THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DRY OUT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE THERE WERE FEW
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z MODELS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 041534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND
THE WIND FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO
REFLECT MORE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH
THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON
FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 041534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND
THE WIND FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO
REFLECT MORE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH
THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON
FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 041534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND
THE WIND FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO
REFLECT MORE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH
THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON
FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 041534
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND
THE WIND FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO
REFLECT MORE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH
THE SURFACE HEATING...AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON
FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKEY HAZE CONTINUES...WITH SOME MVFR AS A RESULT. VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHOWS MORE SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ARE ALSO
SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING.

AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE AND TURN VEER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AT
10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA FOR TODAY AND EVENING. SO THERE IS THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE IT IS TOO ISOLATED TO PREDICT...EXPECT
TAF AMENDS IF AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP THAT WOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 041010
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
410 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH THE SURFACE HEATING...AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION...STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON FORT PECK LAKE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THIS MORNING TO TURN NORTH BY THIS EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 041010
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
410 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH THE SURFACE HEATING...AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION...STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON FORT PECK LAKE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THIS MORNING TO TURN NORTH BY THIS EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 041010
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
410 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AIRMASS DESTABILIZED WITH THE SURFACE HEATING...AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH THE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PW AROUND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION...STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATING INTERESTS ON FORT PECK LAKE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY...FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLEARING EXPECTED TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE STATE. DRIER BUT STILL COOL WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
BRITISH COLOMBIA. DO EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARD A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
TIMING OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...BROAD AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS AND SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA COULD EASILY ASSIST IN CONVECTION
INITIATION AND SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY FOR NOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
ALSO PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
THIS MORNING TO TURN NORTH BY THIS EVENING AT 10 TO 20 KTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 040214
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
814 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
T-STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS OF SW
SASK. THEY SHOULD TEND TO GO MORE EAST THAN SE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE EXISTS THERE. BUT WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE
SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH E MT SO THERE
COULD BE A LATE SHOWER/TSTORM THAT POPS UP...PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

OTHERWISE...ADDED HAZE TO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HAZE/SMOKE PROBABLY WON/T EXIT CWA UNTIL FRONT SWEEPS
IT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SATURDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GILCHRIST

INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MALTA TO SCOBEY...THEN DURING
THE EVENING. THEN DURING THE EVENING...THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS. MOST MODELS KEEP NE MONTANA DRY
WITH MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN OUR NE AND SE ZONES. THE EVENING LOOKS
ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP MOST LIKELY FOR FAR E AND FAR
W ZONES. I CAN TELL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT THE
PRECIP...BUT STILL BEING A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DO SO. MIGHT STILL
WANT TO CONSIDER THE RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS MODEL
OUTPUT.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE MISSOURI BREAKS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECTING SHIFTING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY. DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD BE WARRANTED GIVEN
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY DANGEROUS FUELS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WINDS
ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. MIGHT GET UP TO 20 G 30 MPH...BUT MIGHT ALSO BE JUST BELOW
THOSE LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS FOR BETTER TIMING
DECISIONS.

SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL. EXPECTING IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. STUBBORN MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EC AND CMC SHOWING A WET NORTHERN ZONES
REGION...AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A WET SOUTHERN ZONES REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUNDAY
EVENING APPROACHES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS TO BEGIN TO TREND DOWN POPS AND UP
TEMPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS
LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 040214
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
814 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
T-STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS OF SW
SASK. THEY SHOULD TEND TO GO MORE EAST THAN SE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE EXISTS THERE. BUT WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE
SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH E MT SO THERE
COULD BE A LATE SHOWER/TSTORM THAT POPS UP...PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

OTHERWISE...ADDED HAZE TO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HAZE/SMOKE PROBABLY WON/T EXIT CWA UNTIL FRONT SWEEPS
IT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SATURDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GILCHRIST

INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MALTA TO SCOBEY...THEN DURING
THE EVENING. THEN DURING THE EVENING...THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS. MOST MODELS KEEP NE MONTANA DRY
WITH MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN OUR NE AND SE ZONES. THE EVENING LOOKS
ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP MOST LIKELY FOR FAR E AND FAR
W ZONES. I CAN TELL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT THE
PRECIP...BUT STILL BEING A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DO SO. MIGHT STILL
WANT TO CONSIDER THE RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS MODEL
OUTPUT.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE MISSOURI BREAKS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECTING SHIFTING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY. DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD BE WARRANTED GIVEN
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY DANGEROUS FUELS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WINDS
ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. MIGHT GET UP TO 20 G 30 MPH...BUT MIGHT ALSO BE JUST BELOW
THOSE LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS FOR BETTER TIMING
DECISIONS.

SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL. EXPECTING IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. STUBBORN MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EC AND CMC SHOWING A WET NORTHERN ZONES
REGION...AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A WET SOUTHERN ZONES REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUNDAY
EVENING APPROACHES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS TO BEGIN TO TREND DOWN POPS AND UP
TEMPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS
LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 032039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GILCHRIST

INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MALTA TO SCOBEY...THEN DURING
THE EVENING. THEN DURING THE EVENING...THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS. MOST MODELS KEEP NE MONTANA DRY
WITH MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN OUR NE AND SE ZONES. THE EVENING LOOKS
ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP MOST LIKELY FOR FAR E AND FAR
W ZONES. I CAN TELL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT THE
PRECIP...BUT STILL BEING A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DO SO. MIGHT STILL
WANT TO CONSIDER THE RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS MODEL
OUTPUT.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE MISSOURI BREAKS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECTING SHIFTING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY. DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD BE WARRANTED GIVEN
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY DANGEROUS FUELS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WINDS
ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. MIGHT GET UP TO 20 G 30 MPH...BUT MIGHT ALSO BE JUST BELOW
THOSE LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS FOR BETTER TIMING
DECISIONS.

SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL. EXPECTING IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. STUBBORN MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EC AND CMC SHOWING A WET NORTHERN ZONES
REGION...AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A WET SOUTHERN ZONES REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUNDAY
EVENING APPROACHES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS TO BEGIN TO TREND DOWN POPS AND UP
TEMPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS
LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 032039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GILCHRIST

INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MALTA TO SCOBEY...THEN DURING
THE EVENING. THEN DURING THE EVENING...THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS. MOST MODELS KEEP NE MONTANA DRY
WITH MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN OUR NE AND SE ZONES. THE EVENING LOOKS
ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP MOST LIKELY FOR FAR E AND FAR
W ZONES. I CAN TELL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT THE
PRECIP...BUT STILL BEING A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DO SO. MIGHT STILL
WANT TO CONSIDER THE RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS MODEL
OUTPUT.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE MISSOURI BREAKS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECTING SHIFTING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY. DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD BE WARRANTED GIVEN
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY DANGEROUS FUELS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WINDS
ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. MIGHT GET UP TO 20 G 30 MPH...BUT MIGHT ALSO BE JUST BELOW
THOSE LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS FOR BETTER TIMING
DECISIONS.

SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL. EXPECTING IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. STUBBORN MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EC AND CMC SHOWING A WET NORTHERN ZONES
REGION...AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A WET SOUTHERN ZONES REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUNDAY
EVENING APPROACHES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS TO BEGIN TO TREND DOWN POPS AND UP
TEMPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS
LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 031600
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO REMOVE CLOUD COVER AND POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AS THE LATEST MODEL/SATELLITE/RADAR DATA ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
THREAT THERE THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE AN
ONGOING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
SMOKE. IN ADDITION...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES SO WILL ALSO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH
00Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR
ECHOES APPROACHING PETROLEUM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT UPPER WAVE IS ABLE TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAY EXIST BY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM NEAR +20C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FACTORING IN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
LENDS SUPPORT TO MID AND UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY YELLOWSTONE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S NORTH. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
SURFACED BASED CAPE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
AT NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH
DURING THE TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY HELP KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...PULSING MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF
SHEAR INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WANTED TO DESCRIBE THIS
POTENTIAL IN A BIT OF DETAIL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT
HOLIDAY PLANS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT
IS NON-ZERO AND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
FORECAST ALSO IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THINKING BY SPC...WHICH HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY.

OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FROPA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT BUT THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY
TO REFINE TIMING. UPPER TROUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH
INSTABILITY MUCH LESS AT THIS POINT SO NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR
THUNDER BY THAT TIME. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 031600
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO REMOVE CLOUD COVER AND POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AS THE LATEST MODEL/SATELLITE/RADAR DATA ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
THREAT THERE THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE AN
ONGOING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
SMOKE. IN ADDITION...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES SO WILL ALSO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH
00Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR
ECHOES APPROACHING PETROLEUM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT UPPER WAVE IS ABLE TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAY EXIST BY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM NEAR +20C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FACTORING IN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
LENDS SUPPORT TO MID AND UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY YELLOWSTONE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S NORTH. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
SURFACED BASED CAPE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
AT NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH
DURING THE TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY HELP KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...PULSING MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF
SHEAR INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WANTED TO DESCRIBE THIS
POTENTIAL IN A BIT OF DETAIL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT
HOLIDAY PLANS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT
IS NON-ZERO AND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
FORECAST ALSO IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THINKING BY SPC...WHICH HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY.

OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FROPA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT BUT THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY
TO REFINE TIMING. UPPER TROUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH
INSTABILITY MUCH LESS AT THIS POINT SO NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR
THUNDER BY THAT TIME. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 030933
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE AN ONGOING CONCERN ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SMOKE. IN
ADDITION...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME
PLACES SO WILL ALSO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH
00Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR
ECHOES APPROACHING PETROLEUM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT UPPER WAVE IS ABLE TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAY EXIST BY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM NEAR +20C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FACTORING IN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
LENDS SUPPORT TO MID AND UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY YELLOWSTONE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S NORTH. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
SURFACED BASED CAPE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
AT NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH
DURING THE TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY HELP KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...PULSING MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF
SHEAR INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WANTED TO DESCRIBE THIS
POTENTIAL IN A BIT OF DETAIL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT
HOLIDAY PLANS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT
IS NON-ZERO AND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
FORECAST ALSO IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THINKING BY SPC...WHICH HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY.

OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FROPA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT BUT THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY
TO REFINE TIMING. UPPER TROUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH
INSTABILITY MUCH LESS AT THIS POINT SO NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR
THUNDER BY THAT TIME. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 030933
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO BE AN ONGOING CONCERN ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SMOKE. IN
ADDITION...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME
PLACES SO WILL ALSO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY THOUGH
00Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RADAR
ECHOES APPROACHING PETROLEUM COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT UPPER WAVE IS ABLE TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAY EXIST BY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM NEAR +20C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FACTORING IN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
LENDS SUPPORT TO MID AND UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...ESPECIALLY YELLOWSTONE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S NORTH. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
SURFACED BASED CAPE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
AT NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 1 INCH
DURING THE TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY HELP KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...PULSING MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF
SHEAR INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
COULD BE POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT A LONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WANTED TO DESCRIBE THIS
POTENTIAL IN A BIT OF DETAIL GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY TO IMPACT
HOLIDAY PLANS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...BUT
IS NON-ZERO AND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE
FORECAST ALSO IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THINKING BY SPC...WHICH HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY.

OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FROPA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT BUT THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY
TO REFINE TIMING. UPPER TROUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH
INSTABILITY MUCH LESS AT THIS POINT SO NOT AS MUCH CHANCE FOR
THUNDER BY THAT TIME. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MVFR LEVEL VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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