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000
FXUS65 KGGW 262039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY...

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPS INDICATING SBCAPE REACHING 2000 J/KG IN SPOTS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A REMOTE STORM POPS WITH 1 INCH HAIL BUT LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP IT
FROM LASTING TOO LONG THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WEDNESDAY TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
THEY COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURPASS 1
INCH...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO NORMAL. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING AND PROGRESSION.

THINGS WIND DOWN A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS GOING. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THREE RELATIVELY
DISTINCT FEATURES. ONE...CLEARING BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ARRIVE COURTESY OF A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ATTACHED TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW. IT WILL
BASICALLY ACT TO WEAKEN AND ABSORB THE UPPER-LOW CENTER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER IT MOVES OVER NE MONTANA. WEAK RIDGING
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

TWO...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL WITH SLIGHT SHORT
WAVE INFLUENCE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

AND THREE...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. A LARGER-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN US WITH
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY PRECIP. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MID-DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY OF THOSE
COME NEAR A TAF SITE. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 262039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
...UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY...

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPS INDICATING SBCAPE REACHING 2000 J/KG IN SPOTS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF
A REMOTE STORM POPS WITH 1 INCH HAIL BUT LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP IT
FROM LASTING TOO LONG THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WEDNESDAY TO MUCH OF THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
THEY COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS SURPASS 1
INCH...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO NORMAL. NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING AND PROGRESSION.

THINGS WIND DOWN A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS GOING. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THREE RELATIVELY
DISTINCT FEATURES. ONE...CLEARING BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ARRIVE COURTESY OF A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ATTACHED TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW. IT WILL
BASICALLY ACT TO WEAKEN AND ABSORB THE UPPER-LOW CENTER FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER IT MOVES OVER NE MONTANA. WEAK RIDGING
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

TWO...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL WITH SLIGHT SHORT
WAVE INFLUENCE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

AND THREE...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. A LARGER-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN US WITH
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY PRECIP. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MID-DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY OF THOSE
COME NEAR A TAF SITE. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 261511
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MODIFIED 12Z KGGW
SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE OF 1326 J/KG WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 78.
THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HAVE ADDED SMALL HAIL THIS WORDING TO AREAS
WHERE MAX TEMP REACHES 75 (CENTRAL ZONES). REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB HEIGHT
CHART WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY PROVIDING UPPER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BUT REACH THE WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES YET FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH VERY LITTLE
CIN DURING HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITATIONS. FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 0-6 KM DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. THUS...MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WHICH COULD PULSE DOWN AS
QUICKLY AS IT PULSES UP. SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT THE MARGINAL
RISK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED DECIDED THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED ENOUGH AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THAT AN HWO IS NOT YET NECESSARY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER DRY WITH DEEP
SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING +2SD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD MEAN LOCALLY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. DO
NOT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO YET NECESSITATE A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WX GRIDS BUT THESE
ARGUMENTS TAKEN TOGETHER LEND SOME CREDENCE TO FURTHER MONITORING
IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. RIGHT NOW THERE JUST SEEM TO BE TOO MANY
LIMITATIONS SUCH AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR TO
GET OVERLY EXCITED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MID-DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY OF THOSE
COME NEAR A TAF SITE. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 261511
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MODIFIED 12Z KGGW
SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE OF 1326 J/KG WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 78.
THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HAVE ADDED SMALL HAIL THIS WORDING TO AREAS
WHERE MAX TEMP REACHES 75 (CENTRAL ZONES). REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB HEIGHT
CHART WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY PROVIDING UPPER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BUT REACH THE WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES YET FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH VERY LITTLE
CIN DURING HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITATIONS. FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 0-6 KM DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. THUS...MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WHICH COULD PULSE DOWN AS
QUICKLY AS IT PULSES UP. SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT THE MARGINAL
RISK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED DECIDED THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED ENOUGH AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THAT AN HWO IS NOT YET NECESSARY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER DRY WITH DEEP
SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING +2SD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD MEAN LOCALLY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. DO
NOT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO YET NECESSITATE A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WX GRIDS BUT THESE
ARGUMENTS TAKEN TOGETHER LEND SOME CREDENCE TO FURTHER MONITORING
IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. RIGHT NOW THERE JUST SEEM TO BE TOO MANY
LIMITATIONS SUCH AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR TO
GET OVERLY EXCITED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MID-DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY OF THOSE
COME NEAR A TAF SITE. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 260951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB HEIGHT
CHART WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY PROVIDING UPPER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BUT REACH THE WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES YET FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH VERY LITTLE
CIN DURING HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITATIONS. FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 0-6 KM DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. THUS...MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WHICH COULD PULSE DOWN AS
QUICKLY AS IT PULSES UP. SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT THE MARGINAL
RISK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED DECIDED THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED ENOUGH AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THAT AN HWO IS NOT YET NECESSARY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER DRY WITH DEEP
SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING +2SD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD MEAN LOCALLY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. DO
NOT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO YET NECESSITATE A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WX GRIDS BUT THESE
ARGUMENTS TAKEN TOGETHER LEND SOME CREDENCE TO FURTHER MONITORING
IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. RIGHT NOW THERE JUST SEEM TO BE TOO MANY
LIMITATIONS SUCH AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR TO
GET OVERLY EXCITED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 260951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB HEIGHT
CHART WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY PROVIDING UPPER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BUT REACH THE WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES YET FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH VERY LITTLE
CIN DURING HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITATIONS. FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 0-6 KM DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. THUS...MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WHICH COULD PULSE DOWN AS
QUICKLY AS IT PULSES UP. SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT THE MARGINAL
RISK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED DECIDED THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED ENOUGH AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THAT AN HWO IS NOT YET NECESSARY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER DRY WITH DEEP
SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING +2SD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD MEAN LOCALLY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. DO
NOT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO YET NECESSITATE A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WX GRIDS BUT THESE
ARGUMENTS TAKEN TOGETHER LEND SOME CREDENCE TO FURTHER MONITORING
IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. RIGHT NOW THERE JUST SEEM TO BE TOO MANY
LIMITATIONS SUCH AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR TO
GET OVERLY EXCITED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 260951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB HEIGHT
CHART WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY PROVIDING UPPER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BUT REACH THE WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES YET FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH VERY LITTLE
CIN DURING HOURS OF PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITATIONS. FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...AND
THIS COULD SERVE TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 0-6 KM DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. THUS...MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WHICH COULD PULSE DOWN AS
QUICKLY AS IT PULSES UP. SPC ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT THE MARGINAL
RISK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED DECIDED THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED ENOUGH AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THAT AN HWO IS NOT YET NECESSARY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER DRY WITH DEEP
SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING +2SD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD MEAN LOCALLY BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. DO
NOT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO YET NECESSITATE A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WX GRIDS BUT THESE
ARGUMENTS TAKEN TOGETHER LEND SOME CREDENCE TO FURTHER MONITORING
IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. RIGHT NOW THERE JUST SEEM TO BE TOO MANY
LIMITATIONS SUCH AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR TO
GET OVERLY EXCITED AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS UP WITH UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT THROUGH MONTANA...COULD TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT.

TROF LIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SENDING RAIN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 260245
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OTHERWISE WITH PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TOWARD MORNING. DO EXPECT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A BETTER
SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS A WEAK...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE DAKOTAS...SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT
CIRCULATION IS SETTING OFF SOME SMALL...SCATTERED...AND SLOW-
MOVING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY MIXED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE. ACTUALLY THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CORRESPONDS QUITE NICELY WITH THE GFS DEPICTION OF
THE AXIS OF CAPE TODAY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT. AS A FEW LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED MIST AND PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MARGINAL
MOISTURE SURGE TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS BEST TO MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF AN IMPACT.

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTER VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER OVER NE MONTANA FAIRLY BENIGN IN
WEAK FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

IT SEEMS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...600-900 J/KG AND -2 TO -4 LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL
NEED TO WATCH MODEL EVOLUTION OF THIS AND BEGIN MENTIONING
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS IN AN HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA IF TRENDS CONTINUE
THIS WAY.

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EITHER CALM OR LIGHT FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL A COOL FRONT ARRIVES LATER ON
THURSDAY. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS DIDN/T SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FIELD IN THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A COOL AIR IN FRO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION AND LOWERED TEMPS A
BIT. COULD BE A TOUCH OF FROST IN SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING WEST
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY MISS THE TERMINALS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNDOWN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 260245
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED OTHERWISE WITH PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TOWARD MORNING. DO EXPECT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A BETTER
SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS A WEAK...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE DAKOTAS...SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT
CIRCULATION IS SETTING OFF SOME SMALL...SCATTERED...AND SLOW-
MOVING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY MIXED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE. ACTUALLY THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CORRESPONDS QUITE NICELY WITH THE GFS DEPICTION OF
THE AXIS OF CAPE TODAY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT. AS A FEW LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED MIST AND PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MARGINAL
MOISTURE SURGE TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS BEST TO MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF AN IMPACT.

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTER VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER OVER NE MONTANA FAIRLY BENIGN IN
WEAK FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

IT SEEMS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...600-900 J/KG AND -2 TO -4 LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL
NEED TO WATCH MODEL EVOLUTION OF THIS AND BEGIN MENTIONING
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS IN AN HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA IF TRENDS CONTINUE
THIS WAY.

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EITHER CALM OR LIGHT FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL A COOL FRONT ARRIVES LATER ON
THURSDAY. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS DIDN/T SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FIELD IN THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A COOL AIR IN FRO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION AND LOWERED TEMPS A
BIT. COULD BE A TOUCH OF FROST IN SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING WEST
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY MISS THE TERMINALS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNDOWN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 252111
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AS A WEAK...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
DAKOTAS...SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT
CIRCULATION IS SETTING OFF SOME SMALL...SCATTERED...AND SLOW-
MOVING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY MIXED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE. ACTUALLY THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CORRESPONDS QUITE NICELY WITH THE GFS DEPICTION OF
THE AXIS OF CAPE TODAY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT. AS A FEW LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED MIST AND PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MARGINAL MOISTURE
SURGE TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS BEST TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT.

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTER VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER OVER NE MONTANA FAIRLY BENIGN IN
WEAK FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

IT SEEMS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...600-900 J/KG AND -2 TO -4 LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL
NEED TO WATCH MODEL EVOLUTION OF THIS AND BEGIN MENTIONING
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS IN AN HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA IF TRENDS CONTINUE
THIS WAY.

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EITHER CALM OR LIGHT FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL A COOL FRONT ARRIVES LATER ON
THURSDAY. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS DIDN/T SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FIELD IN THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A COOL AIR IN FRO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION AND LOWERED TEMPS A
BIT. COULD BE A TOUCH OF FROST IN SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING WEST
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 252111
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AS A WEAK...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE
DAKOTAS...SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT
CIRCULATION IS SETTING OFF SOME SMALL...SCATTERED...AND SLOW-
MOVING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY MIXED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE. ACTUALLY THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CORRESPONDS QUITE NICELY WITH THE GFS DEPICTION OF
THE AXIS OF CAPE TODAY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DIE
DOWN TONIGHT. AS A FEW LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED MIST AND PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MARGINAL MOISTURE
SURGE TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS BEST TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT.

THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTER VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER OVER NE MONTANA FAIRLY BENIGN IN
WEAK FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

IT SEEMS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...600-900 J/KG AND -2 TO -4 LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL
NEED TO WATCH MODEL EVOLUTION OF THIS AND BEGIN MENTIONING
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS IN AN HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA IF TRENDS CONTINUE
THIS WAY.

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EITHER CALM OR LIGHT FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL A COOL FRONT ARRIVES LATER ON
THURSDAY. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS DIDN/T SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FIELD IN THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS. STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A COOL AIR IN FRO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD MODEL BLENDED SOLUTION AND LOWERED TEMPS A
BIT. COULD BE A TOUCH OF FROST IN SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING WEST
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 251604 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1004 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAPPENING
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CHOSE TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERALL WITH BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A BIT MORE GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.

A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR.

RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF KGDV TODAY.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 251604 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1004 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAPPENING
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CHOSE TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERALL WITH BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A BIT MORE GUSTY NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.

A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE
SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR.

RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF KGDV TODAY.

WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 250947
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.

A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS
THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN
MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY
FOG AT KGDV AND KSDY. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGDV AND KSDY.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED OVER THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TODAY. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES AT
KGDV AND KSDY TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  TO THE NORTH...LOOK FOR A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS: EAST 5-15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 250947
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY AND THIS IDEA MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS...WITH REFLECTIVITY ECHOES
APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE
EAST AND PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...APPROACHING +2SD.

A NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
SUGGESTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE CIN AND
LOOKS LIKE 500 J/KG OF CAPE AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR BUT NOT MUCH SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. LIFTED INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR 0. THE CWA WILL ALSO BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...HELPING TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SO FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

SPC PAINTS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
DISCUSSED THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH COULD MEAN HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION AND THAT IS A FACTOR
TO BE CONSIDERED. NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DESCRIBED SETUP...AND A FEW COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT. GFS GENERALLY SPLITS
THE TROUGH AND TAKES IT TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN
MONTANA WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES
NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...THEY AGREE ON A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP WITH IT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT COULD STALL
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THE FRONT MOVES BACK EAST AS WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY
FOG AT KGDV AND KSDY. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGDV AND KSDY.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED OVER THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TODAY. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES AT
KGDV AND KSDY TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  TO THE NORTH...LOOK FOR A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS: EAST 5-15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 250202
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
802 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEAR SPOTS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ADJUST POPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT
RECENT TRENDS AND NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO WYOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...BUT THE CONSENSUS
SEEMS REASONABLE...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...MAINLY
TERRY...WIBAUX...AND GLENDIVE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON DECENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER SHEAR AND A TRIGGER LOOK TO BE
ABSENT OR LACKING. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN WITH THE BEST THREAT
FALLING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING
WIBAUX...TERRY...GLENDIVE...AND SIDNEY.

MONDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS THIS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEADS TOWARD NE MONTANA BY MID WEEK...IT
LOSES MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-
SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.

FELT I COULD ADD ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN
FAR OUT OF AGREEMENT TO EVEN BEGIN TO ADJUST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WHILE THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WET PERIOD...EXACTLY HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO HOW MUCH PRECIP AT THE SURFACE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MUDDLED AT
THIS TIME WITH POORER SMALL SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT. BMICKELSON

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KOLF AND KGGW...VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KSDY AND KGDV...VFR TO MVFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED
OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST...KOLF AND KGGW WILL SEE LESSER IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH THAT
SAID CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY
TERMINAL ON MONDAY.

WINDS: EAST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST/PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 250202
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
802 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEAR SPOTS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL ADJUST POPS AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT
RECENT TRENDS AND NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO WYOMING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...BUT THE CONSENSUS
SEEMS REASONABLE...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...MAINLY
TERRY...WIBAUX...AND GLENDIVE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON DECENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER SHEAR AND A TRIGGER LOOK TO BE
ABSENT OR LACKING. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN WITH THE BEST THREAT
FALLING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING
WIBAUX...TERRY...GLENDIVE...AND SIDNEY.

MONDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS THIS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEADS TOWARD NE MONTANA BY MID WEEK...IT
LOSES MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-
SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.

FELT I COULD ADD ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN
FAR OUT OF AGREEMENT TO EVEN BEGIN TO ADJUST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WHILE THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WET PERIOD...EXACTLY HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO HOW MUCH PRECIP AT THE SURFACE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MUDDLED AT
THIS TIME WITH POORER SMALL SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT. BMICKELSON

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KOLF AND KGGW...VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KSDY AND KGDV...VFR TO MVFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED
OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST...KOLF AND KGGW WILL SEE LESSER IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH THAT
SAID CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY
TERMINAL ON MONDAY.

WINDS: EAST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST/PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 242042
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO LIFTS INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...BUT THE CONSENSUS
SEEMS REASONABLE...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...MAINLY TERRY...WIBAUX...AND
GLENDIVE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON DECENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER SHEAR AND A TRIGGER LOOK TO BE
ABSENT OR LACKING. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN WITH
THE BEST THREAT FALLING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING
WIBAUX...TERRY...GLENDIVE...AND SIDNEY.

MONDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS THIS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEADS TOWARD NE MONTANA BY MID WEEK...IT
LOSES MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-
SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.

FELT I COULD ADD ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN
FAR OUT OF AGREEMENT TO EVEN BEGIN TO ADJUST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WHILE THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WET PERIOD...EXACTLY HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO HOW MUCH PRECIP AT THE SURFACE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MUDDLED AT
THIS TIME WITH POORER SMALL SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT. BMICKELSON

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KOLF AND KGGW...VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KSDY AND KGDV...VFR TO MVFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED
OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TODAY INTO MONDAY. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST...KOLF AND KGGW WILL SEE LESSER IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH THAT
SAID CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY
TERMINAL ON MONDAY.

WINDS: EAST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 242042
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO LIFTS INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...BUT THE CONSENSUS
SEEMS REASONABLE...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...MAINLY TERRY...WIBAUX...AND
GLENDIVE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON DECENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER SHEAR AND A TRIGGER LOOK TO BE
ABSENT OR LACKING. THUS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN WITH
THE BEST THREAT FALLING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING
WIBAUX...TERRY...GLENDIVE...AND SIDNEY.

MONDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS THIS SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEADS TOWARD NE MONTANA BY MID WEEK...IT
LOSES MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-
SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.

FELT I COULD ADD ONLY MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE GOING EXTENDED
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAIN
FAR OUT OF AGREEMENT TO EVEN BEGIN TO ADJUST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WHILE THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WET PERIOD...EXACTLY HOW THAT TRANSLATES
TO HOW MUCH PRECIP AT THE SURFACE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MUDDLED AT
THIS TIME WITH POORER SMALL SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT. BMICKELSON

THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KOLF AND KGGW...VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY AT KSDY AND KGDV...VFR TO MVFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DRIVE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TARGETED
OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY TODAY INTO MONDAY. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST...KOLF AND KGGW WILL SEE LESSER IMPACTS FROM THE
LOW...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH THAT
SAID CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY
TERMINAL ON MONDAY.

WINDS: EAST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 241510
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO DECREASE POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS GARFIELD COUNTY AND THE BIG
SHEEP MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING GIVEN AN AREA OF CLEARING PUSHING
THROUGH. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO AND UTAH
WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO WYOMING TODAY. FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY AND BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO... THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN
ZONES COOLER THAN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT OVER WYOMING
BECOMES A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF
THEM KEEP THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL
LIMIT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR
PARTS OR MOST OF TUESDAY BUT SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH...MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KGDV AND KSDY. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WELL AS
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 241510
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO DECREASE POPS AND SKY COVER ACROSS GARFIELD COUNTY AND THE BIG
SHEEP MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING GIVEN AN AREA OF CLEARING PUSHING
THROUGH. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO AND UTAH
WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO WYOMING TODAY. FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THIS
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY AND BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO... THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN
ZONES COOLER THAN THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT OVER WYOMING
BECOMES A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF
THEM KEEP THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL
LIMIT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR
PARTS OR MOST OF TUESDAY BUT SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH...MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KGDV AND KSDY. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WELL AS
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 240933
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO AND UTAH WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
WYOMING TODAY. FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. DRY
AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN ZONES COOLER THAN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT OVER WYOMING
BECOMES A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF
THEM KEEP THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL
LIMIT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR
PARTS OR MOST OF TUESDAY BUT SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH...MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KGDV AND KSDY. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WELL AS
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 240933
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
333 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO AND UTAH WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
WYOMING TODAY. FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. DRY
AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN ZONES COOLER THAN THE NORTHERN
ZONES TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT OVER WYOMING
BECOMES A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF
THEM KEEP THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL
LIMIT POPS IN THE NORTHWEST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR
PARTS OR MOST OF TUESDAY BUT SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY 5
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL ZONES
FOR NOW.

WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS COMPARED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS MORE AGREEABLE
SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO RISING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE NEAR +20C OVER THE CWA BY 01 JUNE.
WHILE IT IS VERY PRELIMINARY THINKING...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JUNE MAY START OUT ON A WARMER NOTE. WILL SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD HELP TO BUILD CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTH...MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KGDV AND KSDY. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WELL AS
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA FROM THIS LOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE CHANCE REMAINS VERY SLIGHT WITH THE
BEST THREAT BEING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND OVER FORT PECK LAKE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALLOWING
FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 9 PM AS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE UPDATING WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING FOR THE
REGION. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS PLACED A SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WITH THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WAY UP IN YUKON TERRITORY AND ALASKA. THIS HAS PLACED NORTHEAST
MONTANA SMACK DAB IN THE UNENERGETIC CENTER WHERE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HAVE RELINQUISHED ALL CONTROL TO MESOSCALE FEATURES.

A WEAK RIDGE RUNS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND IS BLOCKING A SMALL CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
OREGON. A SECOND CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ITS WAY NORTHEAST
FROM THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. A SURFACE COLD POOL EXISTS OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND IS ADVECTING UP IN THE THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE COLD POOL SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
TONIGHT AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM UT/AZ
TO FORM WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL PULL SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT WHERE THEY WILL CLIP THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY OF THE GGW
CWA. THIS NEWLY DEVELOPED TROUGH AND ITS GLANCING RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE STORM
TOTALS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AROUND... THE BEST GUESS IS FOR A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO IMPACT THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY WITH
FAR LESS TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FROM THE BIG SHEEP
HILLS ONWARD.

A COUPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AS A
DEVELOPING MESORIDGE GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING LONG TERM FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE FLOW
REMAINS WEAK. THUS THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO TREND THE GOING
FORECAST TOWARDS THE LATEST CONSENSUS WHICH FAVORS SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER UN- FOCUSED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
BEGINS WITH A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PRAIRIE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. SO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH NO DISTINCT FRONT OR STRONG UPPER FLOW PATTERN. IT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INITIALLY WITH NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD A POOL OF
COLD AIR FORMS UP A COLD FRONT IN CANADA THAT WILL BEGIN TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION THAT
PRODUCES BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
PERIOD WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AT KSDY AND KGDV.

SYNOPSIS: MAINLY DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING THANKS TO UPPER RIDGING. OVERNIGHT...AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL WRAP MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS INTO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...INCLUDING KSDY AND
KGDV. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AT KSDY
AND KGDV.

WINDS: EASTERLY 5-15KTS. GILCHRIST/MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA FROM THIS LOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE CHANCE REMAINS VERY SLIGHT WITH THE
BEST THREAT BEING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND OVER FORT PECK LAKE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALLOWING
FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT 9 PM AS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE UPDATING WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING FOR THE
REGION. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS PLACED A SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT WITH THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WAY UP IN YUKON TERRITORY AND ALASKA. THIS HAS PLACED NORTHEAST
MONTANA SMACK DAB IN THE UNENERGETIC CENTER WHERE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HAVE RELINQUISHED ALL CONTROL TO MESOSCALE FEATURES.

A WEAK RIDGE RUNS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND IS BLOCKING A SMALL CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
OREGON. A SECOND CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ITS WAY NORTHEAST
FROM THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. A SURFACE COLD POOL EXISTS OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND IS ADVECTING UP IN THE THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE COLD POOL SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
TONIGHT AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM UT/AZ
TO FORM WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL PULL SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT WHERE THEY WILL CLIP THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY OF THE GGW
CWA. THIS NEWLY DEVELOPED TROUGH AND ITS GLANCING RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE STORM
TOTALS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AROUND... THE BEST GUESS IS FOR A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO IMPACT THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY WITH
FAR LESS TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FROM THE BIG SHEEP
HILLS ONWARD.

A COUPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AS A
DEVELOPING MESORIDGE GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING LONG TERM FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE FLOW
REMAINS WEAK. THUS THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO TREND THE GOING
FORECAST TOWARDS THE LATEST CONSENSUS WHICH FAVORS SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER UN- FOCUSED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
BEGINS WITH A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PRAIRIE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. SO THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH NO DISTINCT FRONT OR STRONG UPPER FLOW PATTERN. IT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INITIALLY WITH NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD A POOL OF
COLD AIR FORMS UP A COLD FRONT IN CANADA THAT WILL BEGIN TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE ON THE QUIET SIDE UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION THAT
PRODUCES BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
PERIOD WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AT KSDY AND KGDV.

SYNOPSIS: MAINLY DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING THANKS TO UPPER RIDGING. OVERNIGHT...AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL WRAP MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS INTO THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...INCLUDING KSDY AND
KGDV. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AT KSDY
AND KGDV.

WINDS: EASTERLY 5-15KTS. GILCHRIST/MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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