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000
FXUS65 KGGW 011752 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1052 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INDICATE MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THE COLDER START TO THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

THANKS TO A SHORT-WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS IN
CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ON ITS
HEELS...A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRING SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TOWARD THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011752 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1052 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INDICATE MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THE COLDER START TO THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

THANKS TO A SHORT-WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...VFR CONDITIONS IN
CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ON ITS
HEELS...A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRING SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TOWARD THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 011605 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INDICATE MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THE COLDER START TO THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER SOME MORNING HAZE BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 011605 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INDICATE MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THE COLDER START TO THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER SOME MORNING HAZE BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011605 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INDICATE MORE CLEAR SKIES THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED AND TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THE COLDER START TO THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER SOME MORNING HAZE BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 011041
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO
MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MIDLEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011041
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONE SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...TWO
MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SKIES CLEARING AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AS THE CLOUDS DEPART
OVER SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST TODAY WITH WARMER MIDLEVEL AIR MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH FRESH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE THEN SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT MORE
PROGRESSIVELY...SKY CONDITIONS COULD ABRUPTLY CLEAR. GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE AND ABUNDANT NEW SNOW
COVER...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT. THE RESULT
WOULD BE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EXIT MORE SLOWLY THE RESULT WOULD BE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LESS COLD. WILL HAVE A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT
FACTOR IN ALL THE NEW SNOW COVER OUT THERE.

MODELS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AT SOME POINT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MAY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE ON SPECIFIC
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD THIS FAR
OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LENDING TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS AS GUIDANCE ARRIVES
AT CONSENSUS. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010343
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
843 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11PM FOR THE AFFECTED
AREA...THEN TAPPER OFF TO FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAD
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS AS FORECAST LOWS WERE BEING
SURPASSED ALREADY THIS EVENING.       PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MAKES ITS DEPARTURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z
ACROSS KGGW AND KOLF AND AFTER 09Z AT KSDY AND KGDV. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010343
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
843 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11PM FOR THE AFFECTED
AREA...THEN TAPPER OFF TO FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAD
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS AS FORECAST LOWS WERE BEING
SURPASSED ALREADY THIS EVENING.       PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MAKES ITS DEPARTURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z
ACROSS KGGW AND KOLF AND AFTER 09Z AT KSDY AND KGDV. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010343
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
843 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11PM FOR THE AFFECTED
AREA...THEN TAPPER OFF TO FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAD
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS AS FORECAST LOWS WERE BEING
SURPASSED ALREADY THIS EVENING.       PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MAKES ITS DEPARTURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z
ACROSS KGGW AND KOLF AND AFTER 09Z AT KSDY AND KGDV. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010343
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
843 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 11PM FOR THE AFFECTED
AREA...THEN TAPPER OFF TO FLURRIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADARS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAD
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS AS FORECAST LOWS WERE BEING
SURPASSED ALREADY THIS EVENING.       PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW MAKES ITS DEPARTURE. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z
ACROSS KGGW AND KOLF AND AFTER 09Z AT KSDY AND KGDV. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 312342 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
442 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO MERE FLURRIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING...THEN VFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 312342 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
442 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO MERE FLURRIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
BECOME MVFR LATER THIS EVENING...THEN VFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 312137
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 312137
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 312137
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 312137
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TOWARD FLURRIES IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOST MODEL DATA LEANS TOWARD THIS FORECAST
CONSENSUS. AS NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO CUT BACK
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 06Z. THOUGHTS ARE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY IMPROVED BY THEN DUE TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 12Z ONLY VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IF
ANY AT ALL ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SE ZONES...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IT NOT CALM. THIS
QUICK CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THANKS TO A QUICK
PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOLLOWING AN INTERLUDE OF NO PCPN ON SUNDAY...SNOW RETURNS MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
RELATED FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING MONDAY`S
FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WITH SOME HELP FROM NEW SNOW COVER. SNOW
COVER COULD LEAD TO EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT MODELS
INDICATE IF HANDLING OF SNOW COVER IS IMPERFECT. HOWEVER...GFS
SPAGHETTI AND EC SHOW RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY ONWARD...WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY ONWARD AND MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN. MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW OVER THE AREA WITH HRRR FORECASTS MATCHING THE
REFLECTIVITY PATTERN QUITE WELL. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LAST
THROUGH 20Z WITH LIGHTER MORE SCATTERED AMOUNTS TRAILING OFF
THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH SO FAR
BUT BLOWING SNOW HAS REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN PLACES.
COLD AND WIND HAS GENERATED SMALL DRY SNOW PARTICLES WHICH WILL
BLOW AND DRIFT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY REACHING SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED FORECAST FOR WINDS AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS  WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY. WIND WILL EASILY GENERATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW OVER THE AREA WITH HRRR FORECASTS MATCHING THE
REFLECTIVITY PATTERN QUITE WELL. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LAST
THROUGH 20Z WITH LIGHTER MORE SCATTERED AMOUNTS TRAILING OFF
THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND AN INCH SO FAR
BUT BLOWING SNOW HAS REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE IN PLACES.
COLD AND WIND HAS GENERATED SMALL DRY SNOW PARTICLES WHICH WILL
BLOW AND DRIFT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY REACHING SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED FORECAST FOR WINDS AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS  WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY. WIND WILL EASILY GENERATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 311534 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
834 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND WILL EASILY GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN
THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311534 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
834 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND WILL EASILY GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN
THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 311029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
329 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY. STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY. WIND COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH ALONG WITH BR OR FOG WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES FURTHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALED A WIDESPREAD IFR/
LIFR STRATUS DECK COVERING ALL TERMINALS. CANADIAN AND LOCAL KGGW
RADAR SHOWS SNOW SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES FROM THE FALLING SNOW TODAY. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
329 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW CLOUD AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SNOW STILL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...SNOW
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING THE FOG ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THE FALLING SNOW. ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO
PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ALSO EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

COLD AIR LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST AND AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BUT WITH A
MASSIVE COLD AIR MASS SPREAD OVER MOST OF CANADA. A WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION. A QUICK-MOVING SHORT-WAVE CROSSES
THE DIVIDE AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS QPF OF GREATER THAN
0.10 INCH. WX TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW...BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE MODEL THAT SOME COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED
IN AT TIMES. MODEL QPF PRODUCES AROUND 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
TUESDAY. SO THIS IS A STORM TO WATCH.

A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING TO CUT OFF ANY
REMAINING SNOW. NEMONT WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
NEMONT WHICH WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A DISTURBANCES RUNS
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER IT WARMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A
WAVE THAN THE EC. SO THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY
THE WEEKEND. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY. STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY. WIND COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH ALONG WITH BR OR FOG WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES FURTHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALED A WIDESPREAD IFR/
LIFR STRATUS DECK COVERING ALL TERMINALS. CANADIAN AND LOCAL KGGW
RADAR SHOWS SNOW SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES FROM THE FALLING SNOW TODAY. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310325
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS....LATEST NAM...GFS...SREF...HRRR...EC...AND SSEO
HAVE SNOW ENTERING THE CWA AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
AND WINDS TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL BLEND GIVES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH LESS IN SOUTHWEST AREAS AND MORE IN THE NORTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW SETS-UP SOUTH OF MONTANA GIVING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KTS COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO 20 BELOW. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN THE AREA TO MORE
SEASONAL COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  MARTIN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF 4 DAYS WITH MORE SEASONAL COLD WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED
BY A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM SATURDAY.

AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BRINGS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DOWN AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY MODELS SHOWS
SOME INITIAL WARM OVER-RUNNING INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL IN
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AND EC THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE REBOUNDS AND THE PERIOD OF
COLD DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH A NEW PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATE: SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING REVEALS A WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS DECK IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND COULD REACH KGGW...KOLF AND KSDY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCT

FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR...UNCERTAIN IFR IN THE EVENING...
THEN HIGH CERTAINTY OF IFR LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS MAY
HELP TO REFORM SOME FOG AFTER SUNDOWN AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
INITIAL FOG. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN...ANY
FOG WOULD DISSIPATE...AND INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EVENING FOG: HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS. MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CREEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE
IS SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO FORM FOG...
THE MECHANICAL EFFECTS OF ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PRECLUDE IT....NEVER THE LESS WITH 3 SEPARATE MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED FOR TAFS.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING. 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING
SNOW MAY CAUSE DIFFICULTIES FOR CLEARING RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGH.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL...WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
BANDS LATE IN OR JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310325
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS
TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS....LATEST NAM...GFS...SREF...HRRR...EC...AND SSEO
HAVE SNOW ENTERING THE CWA AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
AND WINDS TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL BLEND GIVES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH LESS IN SOUTHWEST AREAS AND MORE IN THE NORTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW SETS-UP SOUTH OF MONTANA GIVING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KTS COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO 20 BELOW. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN THE AREA TO MORE
SEASONAL COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  MARTIN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF 4 DAYS WITH MORE SEASONAL COLD WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED
BY A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM SATURDAY.

AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BRINGS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DOWN AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY MODELS SHOWS
SOME INITIAL WARM OVER-RUNNING INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL IN
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AND EC THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE REBOUNDS AND THE PERIOD OF
COLD DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH A NEW PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATE: SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING REVEALS A WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS DECK IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND COULD REACH KGGW...KOLF AND KSDY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCT

FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR...UNCERTAIN IFR IN THE EVENING...
THEN HIGH CERTAINTY OF IFR LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS MAY
HELP TO REFORM SOME FOG AFTER SUNDOWN AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
INITIAL FOG. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN...ANY
FOG WOULD DISSIPATE...AND INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EVENING FOG: HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS. MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CREEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE
IS SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO FORM FOG...
THE MECHANICAL EFFECTS OF ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PRECLUDE IT....NEVER THE LESS WITH 3 SEPARATE MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED FOR TAFS.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING. 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING
SNOW MAY CAUSE DIFFICULTIES FOR CLEARING RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGH.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL...WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
BANDS LATE IN OR JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 302205
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS....LATEST
NAM...GFS...SREF...HRRR...EC...AND SSEO HAVE SNOW ENTERING THE CWA
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW AND WINDS TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL BLEND GIVES 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LESS IN SOUTHWEST AREAS
AND MORE IN THE NORTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW SETS-UP SOUTH OF MONTANA GIVING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KTS COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO 20 BELOW. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN THE AREA TO MORE
SEASONAL COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  MARTIN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF 4 DAYS WITH MORE SEASONAL COLD WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY
A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM SATURDAY.

AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BRINGS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DOWN AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY MODELS SHOWS SOME INITIAL WARM
OVER-RUNNING INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
POST FRONTAL AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND EC THAT THE WESTERN
RIDGE REBOUNDS AND THE PERIOD OF COLD DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH A NEW
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BEGINING ON FRIDAY. MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... UNCERTAIN IFR IN THE EVENING... THEN
HIGH CERTAINTY OF IFR LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS
MAY HELP TO REFORM SOME FOG AFTER SUNDOWN AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
INITIAL FOG. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN... ANY FOG
WOULD DISSIPATE... AND INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EVENING FOG: HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS. MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CREEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE
IS SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO FORM FOG...
THE MECHANICAL EFFECTS OF ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PRECLUDE IT.... NEVER THE LESS WITH 3 SEPERATE MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED FOR TAFS.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING. 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING
SNOW MAY CAUSE DIFFICULTIES FOR CLEARING RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGH.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
LATE IN OR JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER ARE CURRENTLY
BACK WITHIN THEIR BANKS ALONG DAWSON... PRAIRIE... AND RICHLAND
COUNTY. PREVIOUS FLOODING IN WIBAUX COUNTY ALONG THE BEAVER CREAK
HAS ALSO RECEDED.

WITH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND DROPPING BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK... FURTHER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR THIS EVENT. GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 302205
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS....LATEST
NAM...GFS...SREF...HRRR...EC...AND SSEO HAVE SNOW ENTERING THE CWA
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW AND WINDS TAPERING OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL BLEND GIVES 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LESS IN SOUTHWEST AREAS
AND MORE IN THE NORTHEAST.

SURFACE LOW SETS-UP SOUTH OF MONTANA GIVING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KTS COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO 20 BELOW. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN THE AREA TO MORE
SEASONAL COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  MARTIN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF 4 DAYS WITH MORE SEASONAL COLD WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY
A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM SATURDAY.

AN UPSTREAM LONG WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA BRINGS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DOWN AND GIVES A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATE MONDAY MODELS SHOWS SOME INITIAL WARM
OVER-RUNNING INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
POST FRONTAL AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND EC THAT THE WESTERN
RIDGE REBOUNDS AND THE PERIOD OF COLD DOES NOT LAST LONG WITH A NEW
PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BEGINING ON FRIDAY. MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... UNCERTAIN IFR IN THE EVENING... THEN
HIGH CERTAINTY OF IFR LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS
MAY HELP TO REFORM SOME FOG AFTER SUNDOWN AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
INITIAL FOG. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN... ANY FOG
WOULD DISSIPATE... AND INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN. SNOW BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EVENING FOG: HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS. MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE POINTING TOWARD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CREEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE
IS SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO FORM FOG...
THE MECHANICAL EFFECTS OF ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PRECLUDE IT.... NEVER THE LESS WITH 3 SEPERATE MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED FOR TAFS.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING. 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING
SNOW MAY CAUSE DIFFICULTIES FOR CLEARING RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGH.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
LATE IN OR JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE.

AREA WINDS: NORTH AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER ARE CURRENTLY
BACK WITHIN THEIR BANKS ALONG DAWSON... PRAIRIE... AND RICHLAND
COUNTY. PREVIOUS FLOODING IN WIBAUX COUNTY ALONG THE BEAVER CREAK
HAS ALSO RECEDED.

WITH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND DROPPING BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK... FURTHER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR THIS EVENT. GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301814
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1114 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS ROUND OF SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MORNING FOG: FOG AT KGGW HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SHOULD NO LONGER
BE A PROBLEM FOR THE TERMINAL.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER ARE CURRENTLY
BACK WITHIN THEIR BANKS ALONG DAWSON... PRAIRIE... AND RICHLAND
COUNTY. PREVIOUS FLOODING IN WIBAUX COUNTY ALONG THE BEAVER CREAK
HAS ALSO RECEDED.

WITH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND DROPPING BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK... FURTHER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR THIS EVENT. GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301814
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1114 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS ROUND OF SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MORNING FOG: FOG AT KGGW HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SHOULD NO LONGER
BE A PROBLEM FOR THE TERMINAL.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER ARE CURRENTLY
BACK WITHIN THEIR BANKS ALONG DAWSON... PRAIRIE... AND RICHLAND
COUNTY. PREVIOUS FLOODING IN WIBAUX COUNTY ALONG THE BEAVER CREAK
HAS ALSO RECEDED.

WITH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND DROPPING BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK... FURTHER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR THIS EVENT. GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301642
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS ROUND OF SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MORNING FOG: FOG AT KGGW HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SHOULD NO LONGER
BE A PROBLEM FOR THE TERMINAL.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

GAH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301642
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: INITIAL VFR... IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE CYCLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS ROUND OF SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MORNING FOG: FOG AT KGGW HAS EXITED THE AREA AND SHOULD NO LONGER
BE A PROBLEM FOR THE TERMINAL.

SNOW STORM: CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND 09Z AND
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY... THEN LAST THROUGH THE DAY TO
ABOUT 00Z BEFORE IMPROVING.

VISIBILITY: BETWEEN 1SM TO 4SM FOR MOST SNOWFALL... WITH TEMPORARY
DROPS TO AIRPORT SHUTDOWN OF 1/2 MILE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDS
JUST BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

AREA WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TODAY... VEERING TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

GAH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGGW OR KOLF
REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MORNING UPDATE:

NO NOTICEABLE UPDATE TO FORECAST GRIDS.

FOG IN THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SATELLITE DEPICTION AND VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF THE FOG HAS IT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT
OCCASIONAL 1/4 VISIBILITY IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH NOON.

HIGH POPS AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY 4 OR 5 DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MUCH COLDER THAN
RECENT HISTORY) WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY DAY 7+.

WILL LIKELY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTING MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF SNOW.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS EVENT WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...POSSIBLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE WORTHY OF A
HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE BEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN IN
AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGGW OR KOLF
REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL
EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE
WORTHY OF A HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE
BEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN
IN AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGGW OR KOLF
REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG. BUT BUFKIT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST SPOTS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF FOG FROM A FEW AREAS TO THE
NORTH. PLUS FOG IS SHOWING UP ON THE IR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. SO DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVE...BUT KEEP IT GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WIND IS GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR
FAVORED AREAS OF EAST WIND. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...MULTIPLE ARCTIC AIR-MASS CENTERS ARE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE HUDSON BAY. WEAK WARM RIDGING
EXIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ARCTIC AIR-MASS IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND ALLOWING A SHALLOW COLD POOL TO FORM IN MOST OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. FORT PECK LAKE IS ADDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE TO THIS
FLOW WHICH IS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY
PARTICULARLY MORE THAN THE REST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS EFFECT
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXIT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WEAK REBOUND OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY LEADING TO THE WEAK CHINOOK WINDS THAT
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE OF THE COLD AIR CENTERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR-MASS IN SASKATCHEWAN WAFFLING THE
PREVIOUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY...BACKDOOR STYLE...INTO AND THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID LAYERS WILL RE-ORIENT IN A WAY TO PROVIDE UPGLIDE AND GENERATE
SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PASSAGE. AREAS
OF THE HI-LINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CURRENT BARE
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT LARGE AREAS OF IT. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...WITH CONTINUED MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LEFT ALONE AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE
AVERAGE 24-HR CHANGE AMONGST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES...EQUATING
TO APPROXIMATELY -13C AND -28C ACROSS NEMONT AFTER THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS HAS ENTERED THE AREA. WITH THAT MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WERE
ALSO LOWERED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE TOGETHER WITH
HUDSON BAY LOW LEAVES REGION BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON
BAY LOW DEEPENS ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PUSH INTO MONTANA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND
LOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DO NOT SUPPORT
GENERATION OF STRONG WINDS...SO EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR TO VFR... BECOMING ALL VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY.

SYNOPSIS: THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND IS PROVIDING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER ALONG WITH
MOISTURE POOLING UP IN IT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS SNOW MELT INTO
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TERMINALS UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER
WILL BE AT RISK FOR FOG FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AND
WITH IT...THE THREAT FOR FOG. TIMING WILL BE A TRICKY THING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS VISIBLE FROM
SATELLITE. MAINLY CLEAR TERMINALS COULD QUICKLY SOCK IN AND VFR
HOLES MAY RANDOMLY APPEAR IN TERMINALS WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG.
SO HEAVY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE TAF ISSUANCES. AMENDMENTS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE CYCLE.

WIND: OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...VEERING TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

GAH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE
CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED
AT 7 MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE AND BEAVER CREEK NEAR WIBAUX...WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE
ADVISORY FOR BEAVER CREEK WAS CANCELLED SINCE THE WATER HAS
RETURNED WITHIN ITS BANKS AND NO LONGER FLOODING THE SURROUNDING
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG. BUT BUFKIT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST SPOTS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF FOG FROM A FEW AREAS TO THE
NORTH. PLUS FOG IS SHOWING UP ON THE IR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. SO DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVE...BUT KEEP IT GOING FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WIND IS GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR
FAVORED AREAS OF EAST WIND. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...MULTIPLE ARCTIC AIR-MASS CENTERS ARE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE HUDSON BAY. WEAK WARM RIDGING
EXIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ARCTIC AIR-MASS IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND ALLOWING A SHALLOW COLD POOL TO FORM IN MOST OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. FORT PECK LAKE IS ADDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE TO THIS
FLOW WHICH IS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY
PARTICULARLY MORE THAN THE REST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS EFFECT
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXIT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WEAK REBOUND OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY LEADING TO THE WEAK CHINOOK WINDS THAT
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE OF THE COLD AIR CENTERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR-MASS IN SASKATCHEWAN WAFFLING THE
PREVIOUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY...BACKDOOR STYLE...INTO AND THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID LAYERS WILL RE-ORIENT IN A WAY TO PROVIDE UPGLIDE AND GENERATE
SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PASSAGE. AREAS
OF THE HI-LINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CURRENT BARE
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT LARGE AREAS OF IT. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...WITH CONTINUED MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LEFT ALONE AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE
AVERAGE 24-HR CHANGE AMONGST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES...EQUATING
TO APPROXIMATELY -13C AND -28C ACROSS NEMONT AFTER THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS HAS ENTERED THE AREA. WITH THAT MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WERE
ALSO LOWERED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE TOGETHER WITH
HUDSON BAY LOW LEAVES REGION BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON
BAY LOW DEEPENS ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PUSH INTO MONTANA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND
LOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DO NOT SUPPORT
GENERATION OF STRONG WINDS...SO EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. BRITTON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR TO VFR... BECOMING ALL VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY.

SYNOPSIS: THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND IS PROVIDING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER ALONG WITH
MOISTURE POOLING UP IN IT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS SNOW MELT INTO
THE EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TERMINALS UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER
WILL BE AT RISK FOR FOG FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT AND
WITH IT...THE THREAT FOR FOG. TIMING WILL BE A TRICKY THING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS VISIBLE FROM
SATELLITE. MAINLY CLEAR TERMINALS COULD QUICKLY SOCK IN AND VFR
HOLES MAY RANDOMLY APPEAR IN TERMINALS WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG.
SO HEAVY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE TAF ISSUANCES. AMENDMENTS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE CYCLE.

WIND: OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...VEERING TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

GAH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE
CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED
AT 7 MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE AND BEAVER CREEK NEAR WIBAUX...WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE
ADVISORY FOR BEAVER CREEK WAS CANCELLED SINCE THE WATER HAS
RETURNED WITHIN ITS BANKS AND NO LONGER FLOODING THE SURROUNDING
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 292147
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... MULTIPLE ARCTIC AIR-MASS CENTERS ARE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE HUDSON BAY. WEAK WARM RIDGING
EXIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ARCTIC AIR-MASS IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND ALLOWING A SHALLOW COLD POOL TO FORM IN MOST OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. FORT PECK LAKE IS ADDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE TO THIS
FLOW WHICH IS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY
PARTICULALY MORE THAN THE REST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS EFFECT
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXIT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WEAK REBOUND OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY LEADING TO THE WEAK CHINOOK WINDS THAT
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ONE OF THE COLD AIR CENTERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR-MASS IN SASKATCHEWAN WAFFLING THE
PREVIOUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY... BACKDOOR STYLE...INTO AND THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID LAYERS WILL RE-ORIENT IN A WAY TO PROVIDE UPGLIDE AND
GENERATE SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PASSAGE. AREAS
OF THE HIGHLINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... CURRENT BARE
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT LARGE AREAS OF IT.   GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE... WITH CONTINUED MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LEFT ALONE AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE
AVERAGE 24-HR CHANGE AMONGST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES...EQUATING
TO APPROXIMATELY -13C AND -28C ACROSS NEMONT AFTER THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS HAS ENTERED THE AREA. WITH THAT MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
LOWERED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.AEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE TOGETHER WITH
HUDSON BAY LOW LEAVES REGION BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON BAY LOW
DEEPENS ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PUSH INTO MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND LOW
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DO NOT SUPPORT
GENERATION OF STRONG WINDS...SO EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. BRITTON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR TO VFR... BECOMING ALL VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY.

SYNOPSIS: THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND IS PROVIDING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTURE
POOLING UP IN IT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS SNOW MELT INTO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. TERMINALS UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER WILL BE AT RISK FOR
FOG FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT... AND WITH IT THE
THREAT FOR FOG. TIMING WILL BE A TRICKY THING WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE. MAINLY
CLEAR TERMINALS COULD QUICKLY SOCK IN AND VFR HOLES MAY RANDOMLY
APPEAR IN TERMINALS WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG. SO HEAVY
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE TAF ISSUANCES. AMENDMENTS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE CYCLE.

WIND: OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292147
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... MULTIPLE ARCTIC AIR-MASS CENTERS ARE MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND THE HUDSON BAY. WEAK WARM RIDGING
EXIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ARCTIC AIR-MASS IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
AND ALLOWING A SHALLOW COLD POOL TO FORM IN MOST OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. FORT PECK LAKE IS ADDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE TO THIS
FLOW WHICH IS REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY
PARTICULALY MORE THAN THE REST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS EFFECT
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXIT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WEAK REBOUND OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY LEADING TO THE WEAK CHINOOK WINDS THAT
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... ONE OF THE COLD AIR CENTERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
AND REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR-MASS IN SASKATCHEWAN WAFFLING THE
PREVIOUS STATIONARY BOUNDARY... BACKDOOR STYLE...INTO AND THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MID LAYERS WILL RE-ORIENT IN A WAY TO PROVIDE UPGLIDE AND
GENERATE SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PASSAGE. AREAS
OF THE HIGHLINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST IMPACT.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... CURRENT BARE
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT LARGE AREAS OF IT.   GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE... WITH CONTINUED MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LEFT ALONE AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE
AVERAGE 24-HR CHANGE AMONGST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES...EQUATING
TO APPROXIMATELY -13C AND -28C ACROSS NEMONT AFTER THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS HAS ENTERED THE AREA. WITH THAT MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
LOWERED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.AEC


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE TOGETHER WITH
HUDSON BAY LOW LEAVES REGION BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT AS HUDSON BAY LOW
DEEPENS ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PUSH INTO MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND LOW
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY
IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DO NOT SUPPORT
GENERATION OF STRONG WINDS...SO EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. BRITTON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR TO VFR... BECOMING ALL VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY.

SYNOPSIS: THE EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR-MASS HAS SET IN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND IS PROVIDING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTURE
POOLING UP IN IT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS SNOW MELT INTO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. TERMINALS UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER WILL BE AT RISK FOR
FOG FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OUT... AND WITH IT THE
THREAT FOR FOG. TIMING WILL BE A TRICKY THING WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE. MAINLY
CLEAR TERMINALS COULD QUICKLY SOCK IN AND VFR HOLES MAY RANDOMLY
APPEAR IN TERMINALS WITH PERSISTENT DENSE FOG. SO HEAVY
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE TAF ISSUANCES. AMENDMENTS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE CYCLE.

WIND: OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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