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000
FXUS65 KGGW 301536 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING ONLY FOR VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND WINDS. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. TODAY AND
TOMORROW REMAIN VERY NICE DAYS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TO HELP
TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH SOME LATITUDE ON
ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN SOME
AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT LEAST A VERY
WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301536 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING ONLY FOR VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND WINDS. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. TODAY AND
TOMORROW REMAIN VERY NICE DAYS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TO HELP
TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH SOME LATITUDE ON
ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IN SOME
AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT LEAST A VERY
WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR
80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING
FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO HELP TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH
SOME LATITUDE ON ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT
LEAST A VERY WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR
80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING
FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO HELP TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH
SOME LATITUDE ON ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT
LEAST A VERY WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR
80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING
FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO HELP TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH
SOME LATITUDE ON ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT
LEAST A VERY WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN A MARKED WARM UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +15C TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING THIS COULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR
80 SOUTH LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...THOUGH LEFT OUT THE RECORD WORDING
FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO HELP TEMPERATURES SPIKE...WITH CLOUDINESS PUSHING IN
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE NEXT SHIFT WITH
SOME LATITUDE ON ADVERTISING NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AT
LEAST A VERY WARM DAY ON THE WAY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MODEST CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BELOW
0. MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH. THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH REALLY WILL SURROUND STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST FOR MOST
PLACES BUT STILL SEE DECENT CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE NEAR 50 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR 3-4
KM IN A FEW PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH/CAA MAY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE
USUAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MALTA SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...RIGHT
NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADVERTISING 25-35 MPH WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT AN
ISOLATED LOCATION REACHES HIGH WIND IS YET TO BE SEEN...BUT FOR
RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE THING AND WILL
WATCH CLOSELY FOR STRONGER WINDS.

DO HAVE A FEW WORDS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN WINDS ARE BLASTING THROUGH THE CWA...RH VALUES
MAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S. GIVEN FORECAST LAPSE
RATES DO SEE VERY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
DRY OUT THE VERTICAL. FUELS ARE ALSO STILL QUITE DRY AS GREEN UP
HAS BARELY BEGUN. CLOUDINESS IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING MAY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THOUGH FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS BEARS WATCHING SHOULD
A DRIER FORECAST PAN OUT BUT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN INSPECT FURTHER
WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TIGHT
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO WRAPPING
SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...THEN SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOL AND WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
BLOCKING PATTERN BY DIGGING THE TROF DOWN THE WEST COAST PUMPING
WARM AND DRY AIR INTO REGION BEFORE PUSHING THE TROF EAST BY
MIDWEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
AND CLIMO VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED FORECAST STANDS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN A FEW OF THE USUAL WARMER LOCATIONS. CONCERNS ARE GROWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY BEFORE
VERY GUSTY WINDS IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE RELEASE OF THE MORNING
PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE
PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE SNOW TO
AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE
ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A BETTER CHANCE OF
MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND: LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED FORECAST STANDS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN A FEW OF THE USUAL WARMER LOCATIONS. CONCERNS ARE GROWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY BEFORE
VERY GUSTY WINDS IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE RELEASE OF THE MORNING
PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE
PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE SNOW TO
AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE
ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A BETTER CHANCE OF
MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND: LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED FORECAST STANDS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN A FEW OF THE USUAL WARMER LOCATIONS. CONCERNS ARE GROWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY BEFORE
VERY GUSTY WINDS IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE RELEASE OF THE MORNING
PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE
PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE SNOW TO
AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE
ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A BETTER CHANCE OF
MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND: LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED FORECAST STANDS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S IN A FEW OF THE USUAL WARMER LOCATIONS. CONCERNS ARE GROWING
FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY BEFORE
VERY GUSTY WINDS IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE RELEASE OF THE MORNING
PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE
PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE SNOW TO
AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE
ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A BETTER CHANCE OF
MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND: LESS THAN 15 KTS ACROSS THE REGION.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 292039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY
WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE
SNOW TO AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SEEM TO BE ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A
BETTER CHANCE OF MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEST...15 KTS OR LESS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY
WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE
SNOW TO AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SEEM TO BE ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A
BETTER CHANCE OF MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEST...15 KTS OR LESS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 292039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY
WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE
SNOW TO AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SEEM TO BE ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A
BETTER CHANCE OF MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEST...15 KTS OR LESS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE PLEASANT...SLIGHTLY
WARM...SLIGHTLY COOL AND A BIT BREEZY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EASILY DRYING OUT AFTER A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF MIST AND RIVER VALLEY PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY...EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES
UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. IN OTHER
WORDS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST ABOUT PERFECT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND DRIFT OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AS A THE
LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PORTION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL GIVE
SNOW TO AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SEEM TO BE ADVERTISING A CUT-OFF LOW RATHER THAN AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD GIVE NE MT A
BETTER CHANCE OF MILD CONDITIONS WHILE THE PAC NW GETS MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE/SNOW. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER
CONCERN LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEST...15 KTS OR LESS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291511 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING SIMPLY TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...WINDS...ETC. RESULTED IN A FEW FORECAST
WORDING CHANGES TODAY. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT TODAY UNDER AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUIET INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10 AM.

WINDS: WEST AT 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO/TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 291511 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING SIMPLY TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...WINDS...ETC. RESULTED IN A FEW FORECAST
WORDING CHANGES TODAY. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT TODAY UNDER AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS QUIET INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 10 AM.

WINDS: WEST AT 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO/TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290941
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290941
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290941
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290941
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SENDING TEMPERATURES INTO 70S OR EVEN LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA. THUS...WHILE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LARGER CONCERN
LOOKS TO SURROUND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL.

DECENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN BUSINESS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. IN TIME THIS COULD EASILY BECOME A STRONGLY WORDED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL WINDY
LOCATIONS FOR HIGH WIND. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM NOW AND
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET THERE ON
THAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AS THIS EVENT ENTERS
THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WOULD LIKE TO INSPECT MORE CLOSELY LAPSE
RATES...AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS...AVAILABLE IN THE NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TO ASCERTAIN MORE DETAIL.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE ABLE TO
ALSO OFFER SOME INPUT AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SHORTWAVES...SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN
THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR CLIMO POPS WITH A DAYTIME
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND NOCTURNAL RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
COOLER THERMAL PROFILES AT NIGHT.

WHILE PRECISE TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...12Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE
BROAD CONSENSUS ON HAVING A PACIFIC RIDGE TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
MONTANA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TO
FINISH OUT THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FOR NOW. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290445
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1045 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE 1030PM...
STEADY RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND THE STRONG
WIND HAS DIMINISHED BELOW HIGH WIND LEVELS... HOWEVER REMAINS VERY
WINDY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.      PROTON

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290254
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290254
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290254
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290254
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
854 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EARLY EXPIRATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND THE DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WITH RAWS STATIONS REPORTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND
GUSTS FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4 AM WITH THE WIND
RELAXING BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND
GUST SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
(56 MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL
THE GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM.
TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 04Z. BY
MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281509
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TODAY
WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER. GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS JOINING THE WETTER
CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH GENERATING SHOWERS THAN
WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK
WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281509
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TODAY
WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER. GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS JOINING THE WETTER
CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH GENERATING SHOWERS THAN
WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK
WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280240
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280240
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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