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000
FXUS65 KGGW 180538
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1138 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...A MOIST FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAIN HAVE SHOWN UP SINCE 04Z (10 PM MDT).
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KGDV WHERE MORE VICINITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY OF 10 TO
15 KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT..
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 180538
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1138 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...A MOIST FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND A FEW
REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAIN HAVE SHOWN UP SINCE 04Z (10 PM MDT).
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KGDV WHERE MORE VICINITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY OF 10 TO
15 KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15
TO 20 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT..
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180135
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
735 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A MOIST FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF 0.05" ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE ZONES TONIGHT. SILENT OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY. REST OF FORECAST WAS LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. JAMBA

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180135
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
735 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A MOIST FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF 0.05" ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE ZONES TONIGHT. SILENT OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY. REST OF FORECAST WAS LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. JAMBA

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 172103
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
303 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 172103
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
303 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM FRONT/LEE TROF EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WILL BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE.

SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE REBOUNDING OVER
THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LONG RANGE IS ON TRACK DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT TRANSLATING EAST FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR A
SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS INDICATED BY
EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME CARVED OUT BY THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...SWITCHING THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
THE CWA BUT CONSIDERING IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS STILL CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK THAN THE
GFS. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 171608
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1008 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA. LEE TROF OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP EAST WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLEX THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
INCOMING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (DEPENDING ON
TEMPS) ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL START MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
KEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GOING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS STARTS OCCLUDING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT MOST AREAS
SHOULD HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER...GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY`S HIGHS. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 171608
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1008 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA. LEE TROF OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP EAST WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLEX THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
INCOMING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
TODAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (DEPENDING ON
TEMPS) ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL START MOVING EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
KEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GOING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS STARTS OCCLUDING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT MOST AREAS
SHOULD HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER...GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY`S HIGHS. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170855
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND INCOMING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS (DEPENDING ON TEMPS) ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL START MOVING EAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GOING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS STARTS OCCLUDING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT MOST AREAS
SHOULD HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER...GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY`S HIGHS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A LINE OF HIGH MVFR CLOUDS ABOVE 2KFT HAS OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALMOST IN PLACE WITH A
SLOW CREEP TO BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z. AT WHICH POINT
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR IT COULD BRING CEILINGS INTO FUEL
LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2KFT BUT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z...
THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170855
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND INCOMING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS (DEPENDING ON TEMPS) ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL START MOVING EAST
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GOING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AS STARTS OCCLUDING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT MOST AREAS
SHOULD HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER...GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY`S HIGHS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MANITOBA. A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND THEN TIPS OVER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE EXIST
S OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN EVEN LARGE TROUGH OF COLD
AIR IS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE RUNNING UP INTO THE
BEARING SEA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SKIRTING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPILL OVER PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH
A WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A
BIT MORE.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN
PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO BREAK THE NORTHERN HALF INTO A
WIND UP LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A
STRONG JET LADDENED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THIS LOW BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A LINE OF HIGH MVFR CLOUDS ABOVE 2KFT HAS OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALMOST IN PLACE WITH A
SLOW CREEP TO BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z. AT WHICH POINT
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR IT COULD BRING CEILINGS INTO FUEL
LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2KFT BUT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z...
THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170221
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
821 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
DIDN/T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT DID
LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY.

ATMOSPHERE A BIT UNSTABLE AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDINESS AROUND
TONIGHT BUT LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
HANDLED WELL.

MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND CURRENT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK JUSTIFIED. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD DURING PERIOD WINDING UP OVER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE GGW CWA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND BEHIND
THE RIDGE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEP THROUGH FLOW DURING
PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW- AND MID-LEVELS.
THESE FACTORS PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT PERIOD. BRITTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A STACKED-UP LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE
JET OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER. THE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST
SATURDAY MORNING TO FIRST BRING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER AND MILDER CONDITIONS. THEN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING ABOUT GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
ABOUT A WARMING TREND TO SEND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO
TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN.

A BIG CHANGE COMES ABOUT OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A
LARGE SPLIT TROUGH FORMS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PICK UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
SEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
NATURALLY THIS FAR OUT THE MODELS HAVE NOT YET ALIGNED WITH EACH
OTHER BUT THE LARGE FEATURES ARE THERE. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT THROUGH MONTANA ON ITS WAY INTO CANADA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
GFS IS ALREADY INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF NEMONT. FOR NOW THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SPRING
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A LINE OF HIGH MVFR CLOUDS ABOVE 2KFT HAS OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALMOST IN PLACE WITH A
SLOW CREEP TO BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z. AT WHICH POINT
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR IT COULD BRING CEILINGS INTO FUEL
LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2KFT BUT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z...
THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 170221
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
821 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
DIDN/T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT DID
LOWER POPS FOR THURSDAY.

ATMOSPHERE A BIT UNSTABLE AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDINESS AROUND
TONIGHT BUT LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
HANDLED WELL.

MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND CURRENT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK JUSTIFIED. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD DURING PERIOD WINDING UP OVER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE GGW CWA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND BEHIND
THE RIDGE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEP THROUGH FLOW DURING
PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW- AND MID-LEVELS.
THESE FACTORS PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT PERIOD. BRITTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A STACKED-UP LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE
JET OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER. THE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST
SATURDAY MORNING TO FIRST BRING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER AND MILDER CONDITIONS. THEN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING ABOUT GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
ABOUT A WARMING TREND TO SEND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO
TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN.

A BIG CHANGE COMES ABOUT OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A
LARGE SPLIT TROUGH FORMS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PICK UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
SEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
NATURALLY THIS FAR OUT THE MODELS HAVE NOT YET ALIGNED WITH EACH
OTHER BUT THE LARGE FEATURES ARE THERE. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT THROUGH MONTANA ON ITS WAY INTO CANADA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
GFS IS ALREADY INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF NEMONT. FOR NOW THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SPRING
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A LINE OF HIGH MVFR CLOUDS ABOVE 2KFT HAS OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALMOST IN PLACE WITH A
SLOW CREEP TO BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z. AT WHICH POINT
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR IT COULD BRING CEILINGS INTO FUEL
LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2KFT BUT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 18Z...
THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 161951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
151 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD DURING PERIOD WINDING UP OVER GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE
GGW CWA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND BEHIND THE
RIDGE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEP THROUGH FLOW DURING
PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW- AND MID-LEVELS.
THESE FACTORS PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT PERIOD. BRITTON


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A STACKED-UP LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE
JET OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER. THE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST
SATURDAY MORNING TO FIRST BRING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER AND MILDER CONDITIONS. THEN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING ABOUT GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
ABOUT A WARMING TREND TO SEND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO
TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN.

A BIG CHANGE COMES ABOUT OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A
LARGE SPLIT TROUGH FORMS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PICK UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
SEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
NATURALLY THIS FAR OUT THE MODELS HAVE NOT YET ALIGNED WITH EACH
OTHER BUT THE LARGE FEATURES ARE THERE. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT THROUGH MONTANA ON ITS WAY INTO CANADA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
GFS IS ALREADY INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF NEMONT. FOR NOW THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SPRING
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD GENERATE SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES TO MVFR/IFR. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND AT 10-15KT.

THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT PUSHING COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INTERMITTENT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WIND WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT.
SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
151 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD DURING PERIOD WINDING UP OVER GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL
SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE
GGW CWA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND BEHIND THE
RIDGE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEP THROUGH FLOW DURING
PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AT LOW- AND MID-LEVELS.
THESE FACTORS PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN EASTERLY
WINDS 10-20 MPH THROUGHOUT PERIOD. BRITTON


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A STACKED-UP LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS WILL DIRECT THE
JET OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER. THE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST
SATURDAY MORNING TO FIRST BRING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER AND MILDER CONDITIONS. THEN
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING ABOUT GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
ABOUT A WARMING TREND TO SEND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO
TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN.

A BIG CHANGE COMES ABOUT OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A
LARGE SPLIT TROUGH FORMS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PICK UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
SEND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
NATURALLY THIS FAR OUT THE MODELS HAVE NOT YET ALIGNED WITH EACH
OTHER BUT THE LARGE FEATURES ARE THERE. THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT THROUGH MONTANA ON ITS WAY INTO CANADA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
GFS IS ALREADY INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF NEMONT. FOR NOW THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SPRING
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD GENERATE SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES TO MVFR/IFR. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND AT 10-15KT.

THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT PUSHING COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INTERMITTENT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WIND WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT.
SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 161532
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEPING A CROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE
SHORT WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND DECREASING AFTER NOON. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE SITUATION WELL SO NO
OTHER UPDATES. BRITTON

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE WAVES MAY PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
PART OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK EAST AS A WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES TO MVFR/IFR. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND AT 10-15KT.

THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT PUSHING COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INTERMITTENT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WIND WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT.
SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 161532
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
932 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SWEEPING A CROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE
SHORT WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND DECREASING AFTER NOON. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE SITUATION WELL SO NO
OTHER UPDATES. BRITTON

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE WAVES MAY PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
PART OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK EAST AS A WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
MONTANA AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWN-SLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...SURPRISINGLY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR TO
BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON...RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT
DURING THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE
COULD GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES TO MVFR/IFR. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND AT 10-15KT.

THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT PUSHING COULD BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INTERMITTENT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WIND WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KT.
SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 160904
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE WAVES MAY PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
PART OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK EAST AS A WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER MONTANA AND THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST... A LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OVER
THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT... THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD... SURPRISINGLY... MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH... HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR
TO BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON... RAISED POPS
CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING
THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO HIGH MVFR WITHOUT FUEL LOADING.

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
LEAVING A COLD FRONT BEHIND PRESSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO HIGH MVFR AROUND 09Z THROUGH 18Z THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE BACK TO VFR AFTER NOON. FUEL LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2
KFT MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE TOO
LOW OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS TO BE PLACED DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR
5SM. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BUT THEN RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160904
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVES ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE WAVES MAY PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR
PART OF THE DAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND INTO
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK EAST AS A WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US HIGH
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHILE A SECOND RIDGE RUNS UP THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER MONTANA AND THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ALBERTA. FARTHER WEST... A LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OVER
THE BEARING SEA AND IS EJECTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT... THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW OVER
ALBERTA AND MOVE IT EAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THAT EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... COASTAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE
SURFACE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT MORE.

TUESDAY ONWARD... SURPRISINGLY... MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH FAIRLY WELL MATCHED SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE BEARING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA DROPPING DOWN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED THE
BASE/SOUTHERN COMPONENT OF THIS TROUGH... HOWEVER THEY DO APPEAR
TO BREAK THE TROUGH INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COMPONENT WITH THE
NORTHERN COMPONENT BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA IN MULTIPLE MODELS. FOR THIS REASON... RAISED POPS
CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMO OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING
THESE PERIODS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO HIGH MVFR WITHOUT FUEL LOADING.

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
LEAVING A COLD FRONT BEHIND PRESSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO HIGH MVFR AROUND 09Z THROUGH 18Z THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE BACK TO VFR AFTER NOON. FUEL LOADING CONDITIONS BELOW 2
KFT MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE TOO
LOW OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS TO BE PLACED DIRECTLY IN THE
TAFS. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR
5SM. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BUT THEN RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 160250
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRACKING THE GOING FORECAST RATHER WELL. A
WIND SHIFT FROM A FRONT ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS CREATING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA...WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING BY
MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TRANSITION ANY PPT FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTREME SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND WINNETT MAY HAVE SEEN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...VIRGA HAS BEEN PRESENT
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE 88D RADAR SHOWING THE CLASSIC VIRGA SIGNATURE.
HAVE PARED BACK PPT EXPECTIONS WITH THE UPDATE AS NOW EVEN THE NAM
MODEL SHOWS SCANT PPT OVER THE AREA THORUGH TOMORROW...WITH MOST
OF THE PPT ALONG THE FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
VIRGA TODAY AND WILL SUPPRESS MEASURED PPT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO HIGH MVFR WITHOUT FUEL LOADING.

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. IT IS BEING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO HIGH MVFR AROUND 09Z TO
18Z THEN SLOWLY INCREASE BACK TO VFR AFTER NOON. FUEL LOADING
CONDITIONS BELOW 2 KFT MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL BE TOO LOW OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS TO BE PLACED
DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. THESE COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO NEAR 5SM.

AREA WINDS: NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING... SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND MID MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 160250
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRACKING THE GOING FORECAST RATHER WELL. A
WIND SHIFT FROM A FRONT ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS CREATING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA...WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOLLOWING BY
MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TRANSITION ANY PPT FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTREME SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND WINNETT MAY HAVE SEEN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...VIRGA HAS BEEN PRESENT
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE 88D RADAR SHOWING THE CLASSIC VIRGA SIGNATURE.
HAVE PARED BACK PPT EXPECTIONS WITH THE UPDATE AS NOW EVEN THE NAM
MODEL SHOWS SCANT PPT OVER THE AREA THORUGH TOMORROW...WITH MOST
OF THE PPT ALONG THE FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
VIRGA TODAY AND WILL SUPPRESS MEASURED PPT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO HIGH MVFR WITHOUT FUEL LOADING.

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT. IT IS BEING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO HIGH MVFR AROUND 09Z TO
18Z THEN SLOWLY INCREASE BACK TO VFR AFTER NOON. FUEL LOADING
CONDITIONS BELOW 2 KFT MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE.

SNOW SHOWERS: SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL BE TOO LOW OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS TO BE PLACED
DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. THESE COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO NEAR 5SM.

AREA WINDS: NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING... SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND MID MORNING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 152025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIR-MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 152025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIR-MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 151740
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1140 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 151740
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1140 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION A CLOSED LOW SURFACE TROUGH
FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT NORTHERLY WIND
THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE NOT SETTLED INTO AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING QPF. THE MET INVERTED TROUGH FOCUSES THE
BEST LIFT OVER MUCH OF NEMONT, WHILE THE GFS FIXES IT MORE OUT OF
THE CWA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
COLD AIR-MASS TO THE EAST FROM THE WARM AIR-MASS TO THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE NORTHERN PART OF A SPLIT TROUGH.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE CAA WILL INSURE TMIN TONIGHT WILL BE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM DRY SLOT MOST OF NEMONT. HOWEVER
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA OVERCAST AND COOLER. BY
THE END OF THE DAY WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT RECOVER.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SPINNING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AGAIN THE
NAM IS THE WET MODEL...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS FOCUSED. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH. WITH A COLD BEGINNING TO THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 151535
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
935 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
WESTERLY WIND TO 15-25KT TODAY. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-40KT. LATER TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WIND AND
MIXING WILL GENERATE A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND POP GRIDS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A
COLD ARCTIC CORE OVER ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENSION JUTS OUT
FROM THE CORE AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
AND BACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGH
EXTENSIONS IS A WEDGED RIDGE FROM MONTANA TO NEVADA. AT THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE A JET EXTENDS DOWN FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA TO NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. A SECOND JET RUNS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE JET RUNNING OVER CWA HAS SPAWNED A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHICH IS PEGGED TO FOLLOW THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA BY NOON AND DOWN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD POST LOW AND MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SECOND JET TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN SUPPLYING MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THIS FRONT
AROUND NOON TO 6PM WHICH SHOULD OVERRUN THE COLD AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN THIS FRONT AS A CENTRAL
POINT OF FOCUS... PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RATHER
RANDOM AND DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A HANDLE ON AS SYNOPTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DIFFERING GREATLY WITH DETAILS.
HOWEVER...EVERY MODEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGE DRY ZONE ALONG
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND REASSERT ITSELF. THIS WILL WILL GRADUALLY
PRESS BACK THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR THE WHOLE OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS OVERALL. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIR-MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
MORNING AND MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...STRONGEST AT KGGW THAT WILL
TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF TODAY. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 151535
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
935 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
WESTERLY WIND TO 15-25KT TODAY. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-40KT. LATER TODAY THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE WIND AND
MIXING WILL GENERATE A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND POP GRIDS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A
COLD ARCTIC CORE OVER ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENSION JUTS OUT
FROM THE CORE AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
AND BACK INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGH
EXTENSIONS IS A WEDGED RIDGE FROM MONTANA TO NEVADA. AT THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE A JET EXTENDS DOWN FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA TO NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. A SECOND JET RUNS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE JET RUNNING OVER CWA HAS SPAWNED A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHICH IS PEGGED TO FOLLOW THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA BY NOON AND DOWN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD POST LOW AND MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SECOND JET TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN SUPPLYING MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THIS FRONT
AROUND NOON TO 6PM WHICH SHOULD OVERRUN THE COLD AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN THIS FRONT AS A CENTRAL
POINT OF FOCUS... PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RATHER
RANDOM AND DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A HANDLE ON AS SYNOPTIC
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DIFFERING GREATLY WITH DETAILS.
HOWEVER...EVERY MODEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGE DRY ZONE ALONG
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND REASSERT ITSELF. THIS WILL WILL GRADUALLY
PRESS BACK THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR THE WHOLE OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS OVERALL. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIR-MASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
MORNING AND MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...STRONGEST AT KGGW THAT WILL
TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF TODAY. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 150907
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A COLD
ARCTIC CORE OVER ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENTION JUTS OUT FROM
THE CORE AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND
BACK INTO BRITISH COUMBIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGH EXTENTIONS IS
A WEDGED RIDGE FROM MONTANA TO NEVADA. AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A
JET EXTENDS DOWN FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA TO NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. A SECOND JET RUNS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE JET RUNNING OVER CWA HAS SPAWNED A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHICH IS PEGGED TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT INTO THE CWA BY NOON AND DOWN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD POST LOW AND MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SECOND JET TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
SUPPLYING MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THIS FRONT AROUND NOON
TO 6PM WHICH SHOULD OVERRUN THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FRONT AND GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN THISFRONT AS A CENTRAL POINT OF
FOCUS... PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RATHER RANDOM AND
DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A HANDLE ON AS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DIFFERNG GREATLY WITH DETAILS. HOWEVER... EVERY
MODEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGE DRY ZONE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND REASSERT ITSELF. THIS WILL WILL GRADUALLY
PRESS BACK THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. SHOWERS DURING THERSE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR THE WHOLE OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS OVERALL. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
MORNING AND MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...STRONGEST AT KGGW THAT WILL
TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF TODAY. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 150907
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN US
PLAINS UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A COLD
ARCTIC CORE OVER ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENTION JUTS OUT FROM
THE CORE AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND
BACK INTO BRITISH COUMBIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGH EXTENTIONS IS
A WEDGED RIDGE FROM MONTANA TO NEVADA. AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE A
JET EXTENDS DOWN FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA TO NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. A SECOND JET RUNS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE JET RUNNING OVER CWA HAS SPAWNED A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHICH IS PEGGED TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT INTO THE CWA BY NOON AND DOWN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD POST LOW AND MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SECOND JET TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
SUPPLYING MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THIS FRONT AROUND NOON
TO 6PM WHICH SHOULD OVERRUN THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FRONT AND GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN THISFRONT AS A CENTRAL POINT OF
FOCUS... PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RATHER RANDOM AND
DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO GET A HANDLE ON AS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DIFFERNG GREATLY WITH DETAILS. HOWEVER... EVERY
MODEL DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGE DRY ZONE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND REASSERT ITSELF. THIS WILL WILL GRADUALLY
PRESS BACK THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. SHOWERS DURING THERSE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR THE WHOLE OF THE CWA WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS OVERALL. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES IT WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHILE ECMWF HAS A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WETTER PATTERN. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
MORNING AND MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...STRONGEST AT KGGW THAT WILL
TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF TODAY. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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