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000
FXUS65 KGGW 040148
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEAR
TERM OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND
MILD FOR THE NEAR TERM WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN THE GRIDS AND
FORECAST THEREFORE NO UPDATE TONIGHT.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH ESSENTIALLY
FEW CLOUDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS...EXPECT THE CURRENT WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
DRIFT EAST AND SET UP A SOUTHWEST BREEZE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH
MIXING FROM 700MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +5C...THIS
WILL FURTHER AID IN WARMING. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF AROUND 15F
TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND EVEN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY.

LATE THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXIT LATE THURSDAY COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY
LEAD TO A RAIN SHOWER AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS SMALL...A
STORM MIGHT DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE EVENING.

SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LESS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...SO TRENDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. MODELS DIFFER RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY
REGARDING THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS
OPTED TO LEAVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS IS.

HICKFORD

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE
DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SOME OF
THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL FLYING WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND JUST A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 10-15 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 032026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH ESSENTIALLY FEW CLOUDS AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS...EXPECT THE CURRENT WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
DRIFT EAST AND SET UP A SOUTHWEST BREEZE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH
MIXING FROM 700MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +5C...THIS
WILL FURTHER AID IN WARMING. EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS OF AROUND 15F
TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND EVEN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY.

LATE THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXIT LATE THURSDAY COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY
LEAD TO A RAIN SHOWER AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS SMALL...A
STORM MIGHT DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE EVENING.

SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LESS SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...SO TRENDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. MODELS DIFFER RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY REGARDING THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS
OPTED TO LEAVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS IS.

HICKFORD

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
CONSISTENT AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM
OFF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE DOWN INTO MONTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS AT KGGW MAY HOVER CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS AT
TIMES. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 031508 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
908 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. THICKNESS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...TO AROUND 565DM BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED...NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF AN UPDATE IS NEEDED. DID ADJUST THE DIURNALS BASED ON
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES UNDER NORTHER FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER WEST
AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH RESIDES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
CWA AND REACH PROMINENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20*C,
WHICH COULD EASILY GENERATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS THE RIDGE EXITS LATE THURSDAY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A RAIN
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN MOST
ZONES IN THE EVENING HOURS. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
CONSISTENT AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM
OFF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE DOWN INTO MOTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME. SOME OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 030850
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES UNDER NORTHER FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER WEST
AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH RESIDES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
CWA AND REACH PROMINENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20*C,
WHICH COULD EASILY GENERATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS THE RIDGE EXITS LATE THURSDAY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A RAIN
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN MOST
ZONES IN THE EVENING HOURS. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE
DOWN INTO MOTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS
TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 030222
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
822 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRID FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAKE FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE HOT AND DRY
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD POP UP...BUT RECENT RAINS AND
GREEN FUELS WILL NEGATE ANY CONCERNS. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN N-S FROM
THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA...THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
ALL THE WAY NORTH UP TO VICTORIA ISLAND AND THE AMUNDSEN GULF OF
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE LURKING OFF THE CONUS WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND SWING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE TIMING A COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEMONT ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW MODERATE CAPE
DEVELOPING...BUT MINIMUM MOISTURE LEVELS COULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CONVECTION. QUICKER TIMING MIGHT ALSO BE TOO EARLY IN THE
DAY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION...WHICH MIGHT WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS BY EVENING.

THE SPINNING CLOSED-OFF LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH...AFFECTING MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTH INTO NEMONT. A BETTER CHANCE SHOWS UP FROM A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO NEMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE FEW EDITS WERE MADE. RH FOR THURSDAY WAS ADJUSTED LOWER
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BREAK THE
RIDGE OVER MONTANA DOWN AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERALLY KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND.

WINDS: EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 022024
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAKE FOR SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE HOT AND DRY
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD POP UP...BUT RECENT RAINS AND
GREEN FUELS WILL NEGATE ANY CONCERNS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN N-S FROM
THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA...THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
ALL THE WAY NORTH UP TO VICTORIA ISLAND AND THE AMUNDSEN GULF OF
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE LURKING OFF THE CONUS WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND SWING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE TIMING A COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEMONT ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW MODERATE CAPE
DEVELOPING...BUT MINIMUM MOISTURE LEVELS COULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CONVECTION. QUICKER TIMING MIGHT ALSO BE TOO EARLY IN THE
DAY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION...WHICH MIGHT WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS BY EVENING.

THE SPINNING CLOSED-OFF LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH...AFFECTING MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTH INTO NEMONT. A BETTER CHANCE SHOWS UP FROM A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO NEMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE FEW EDITS WERE MADE. RH FOR THURSDAY WAS ADJUSTED LOWER
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BREAK THE
RIDGE OVER MONTANA DOWN AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERALLY KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 021531
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
931 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO CLOUD COVER TO BETTER MATCH THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PICTURE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO
WHILE A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO ALBERTA. NORTHWEST MONTANA LIES WEDGED
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE
AIRMASSES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AND PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STABLE AIRMASS
AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH STARTING INT HE MID 70S TODAY AND
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MID WEDNESDAY.  LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA MAY SPARK
OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THAT COULD DRIFT INTO A WESTERN
ZONE BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO STABLE EVENING CONDITIONS... BUT THESE
CHANCES ISOLATED AND VERY LOW. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BREAK THE
RIDGE OVER MONTANA DOWN AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERALLY KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 020830
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO WHILE A LARGE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO ALBERTA. NORTHWEST MONTANA LIES WEDGED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AND PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STABLE AIRMASS
AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH STARTING INT HE MID 70S TODAY AND
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MID WEDNESDAY.  LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA MAY SPARK
OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THAT COULD DRIFT INTO A WESTERN
ZONE BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO STABLE EVENING CONDITIONS... BUT THESE
CHANCES ISOLATED AND VERY LOW. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BREAK THE
RIDGE OVER MONTANA DOWN AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERALLY KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 020227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR THIS EVENING. ONLY PRODUCED A
FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO KEEP
THEM IN LINE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BEAT DOWN ON THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND IS KEEPING THE AREA STABLE AND DRY. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE HAS SPREAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO MONTANA TODAY TO BECOME A CUT-OFF HIGH
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY NEARBY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BRING IN
SOME CLOUDINESS IS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME RAIN THERE...BUT KEEP US DRY.

AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THICKNESS
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP HIGHER TO BRING INCREASINGLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES....WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ALSO DURING
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15KT
IN THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHING STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS ON MONDAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 012018
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE HAS SPREAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO MONTANA TODAY TO BECOME A CUT-OFF HIGH
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY NEARBY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MIGHT BRING IN
SOME CLOUDINESS IS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME RAIN THERE...BUT KEEP US DRY.

AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AND POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THICKNESS
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP HIGHER TO BRING INCREASINGLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES....WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ALSO DURING
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15KT
IN THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ECXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART.

SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE CLOSED LOW PUSHING STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY
DIRECTION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 011504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE HAS SPREAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO MONTANA. EXCEPT FOR LIMITED HIGH
CIRRUS...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MORE WARMING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WESTERLY TODAY. LOWERED
RH...OTHERWISE FEW UPDATE CHANGES.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SETUP... A BROAD TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE WEST A RIDGE RUNS UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN TURNS INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND NORTHERN ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN
THESE TWO AIRMASSES UNDER NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONSTANTLY BUILD AS IT`S PACIFIC PORTION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT WILL
MEET WITH THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE TO CONTINUE LOWERING THE RH AND WARMING UP THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS. ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HIGHS BEGINNING IN
THE MID 60S TO REACH THE MID 70S QUICKLY. STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO KEEP POPS WELL BELOW MENTION. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY
DIRECTION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A BROAD TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE WEST A RIDGE RUNS UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN TURNS INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND NORTHERN ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN
THESE TWO AIRMASSES UNDER NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONSTANTLY BUILD AS ITS PACIFIC PORTION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT WILL
MEET WITH THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE TO CONTINUE LOWERING THE RH AND WARMING UP THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS. ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HIGHS BEGINNING IN
THE MID 60S TO REACH THE MID 70S QUICKLY. STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO KEEP POPS WELL BELOW MENTION. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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