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000
FXUS65 KGGW 020900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 020900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 020317 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY...POP AND WX GRIDS TO ALIGN BETTER
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT MOST CHANGES WERE MINOR. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR...A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS
BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 020317 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY...POP AND WX GRIDS TO ALIGN BETTER
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT MOST CHANGES WERE MINOR. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR...A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS
BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010919
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLASGOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010919
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLASGOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL CREATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN PICKING
UP THESE SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EVIDENT IN THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
HAS BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL. OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE MORE CLEAR SKY THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH EVENING
WIND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND A CONTINUED WET GROUND...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVER BOTTOMS. SO
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY POPS AND WX GRIDS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS A LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SLOWLY
BROADEN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TROUGH INFLUENCE ON THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE AREA DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CHANCES
FROM RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE PULSES
WILL MOVE BY AND LATCH ONTO PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT...A CHANCE
EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. SLIGHT INVERSION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SET IN NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EXPEND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AND GENERATE A
WEAK...BROAD RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN IS SHOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS NORTHS AND GRADUALLY WARM THE CWA UP. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE FOCUSED MORE QPF/POP ON THE CWA FOR WED AND NOT SO
MUCH FOR FRI. SURROUNDING OFFICES ALSO SAW THIS TREND...SO GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS TREND. LOWERED HUMIDITY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF A
KGGW-KGDV AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ/PROTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE ABOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
GLASGOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT NASHUA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL CREATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN PICKING
UP THESE SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EVIDENT IN THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
HAS BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL. OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE MORE CLEAR SKY THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH EVENING
WIND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND A CONTINUED WET GROUND...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE RIVER BOTTOMS. SO
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY POPS AND WX GRIDS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS A LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SLOWLY
BROADEN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...COOLING TROUGH INFLUENCE ON THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE AREA DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CHANCES
FROM RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE PULSES
WILL MOVE BY AND LATCH ONTO PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT...A CHANCE
EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. SLIGHT INVERSION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SET IN NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EXPEND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AND GENERATE A
WEAK...BROAD RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN IS SHOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS NORTHS AND GRADUALLY WARM THE CWA UP. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE FOCUSED MORE QPF/POP ON THE CWA FOR WED AND NOT SO
MUCH FOR FRI. SURROUNDING OFFICES ALSO SAW THIS TREND...SO GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS TREND. LOWERED HUMIDITY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF A
KGGW-KGDV AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ/PROTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE ABOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
GLASGOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT NASHUA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 312040
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
A LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SLOWLY BROADEN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... COOLING TROUGH INFLUENCE ON THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE AREA DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CHANCES FRO
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE PULSES
WILL MOVE BY AND LATCH ONTO PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT... A CHANCE
EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. SLIGHT INVERSION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SET IN NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EXPEND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AND GENERATE A
WEAK... BROAD RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN IS SHOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS NORTHS AND GRADUALLY WARM THE CWA UP. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE FOCUSED MORE QPF/POP ON THE CWA FOR WED AND NOT SO MUCH
FOR FRI. SURROUNDING OFFICES ALSO SAW THIS TREND...SO GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS TREND. LOWERED HUMIDITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WELL. TFJ


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF A
KGGW-KGDV AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 312040
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
A LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SLOWLY BROADEN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... COOLING TROUGH INFLUENCE ON THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE AREA DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CHANCES FRO
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE PULSES
WILL MOVE BY AND LATCH ONTO PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT... A CHANCE
EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVER BOTTOMS. SLIGHT INVERSION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SET IN NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EXPEND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD AND GENERATE A
WEAK... BROAD RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN IS SHOULD PUSH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS NORTHS AND GRADUALLY WARM THE CWA UP. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE FOCUSED MORE QPF/POP ON THE CWA FOR WED AND NOT SO MUCH
FOR FRI. SURROUNDING OFFICES ALSO SAW THIS TREND...SO GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS TREND. LOWERED HUMIDITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
WELL. TFJ


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF A
KGGW-KGDV AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311459
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONE
THUNDERSTORM ON RADAR ACROSS MCCONE AND DAWSON COUNTY. POPS ACROSS
THIS AREA NEEDED TO BE RAISED TO AT LEAST MENTION. A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS WERE ALSO DONE TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS.


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA/US WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEST ENERGY/LIFT WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE...FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH WARMER AND DRIER
AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE DIVIDE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KGDV AREA ABOUT
0950 THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY.

IN GENERAL WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCT/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 311459
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LONE
THUNDERSTORM ON RADAR ACROSS MCCONE AND DAWSON COUNTY. POPS ACROSS
THIS AREA NEEDED TO BE RAISED TO AT LEAST MENTION. A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS WERE ALSO DONE TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS.


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA/US WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEST ENERGY/LIFT WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE...FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH WARMER AND DRIER
AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE DIVIDE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KGDV AREA ABOUT
0950 THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY.

IN GENERAL WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCT/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310952
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA/US WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEST ENERGY/LIFT WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE...FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH WARMER AND DRIER
AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE DIVIDE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
PARTIAL CLEARING AND RECENT RAINS HAVE DRIVEN RH VALUES CLOSE TO
100 PERCENT THIS MORNING WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF FOG AND BR
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY
BRINGING MORE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IN ADDITION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TAF SITES TO
PRODUCE INFREQUENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO
REMAINS ABOVE THE 17FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL. THE
LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO...GLASGOW AND NASHUA
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE
MILK RIVER IN VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310952
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA/US WILL SPREAD EAST
TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEST ENERGY/LIFT WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE...FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST WITH WARMER AND DRIER
AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE DIVIDE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHALLOW RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BE AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
PAC-NW. THE TROUGH...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON/ OREGON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
QUICK MOVING WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THE EC AND GFS HAVE NOT SETTLED ON THE EXACT TIMING
YET. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS CARRY MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 14C TO 16C WILL DROP TO
6C TO 8C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERAL COOLING WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ANOTHER TROUGH SPLITS
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY FRIDAY THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL
REGION BETWEEN TROUGH WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ANOTHER STRONG WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WHICH NUDGES ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COULD KEEP THE LID IN TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
PARTIAL CLEARING AND RECENT RAINS HAVE DRIVEN RH VALUES CLOSE TO
100 PERCENT THIS MORNING WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF FOG AND BR
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY
BRINGING MORE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. IN ADDITION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TAF SITES TO
PRODUCE INFREQUENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO
REMAINS ABOVE THE 17FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL. THE
LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO...GLASGOW AND NASHUA
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE
MILK RIVER IN VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301441
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
841 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THIS MORNING REVOLVED AROUND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING SO SPREAD POPS FARTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS.  GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROUGH FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CIGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000
AND 10000 FT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. BRIEFLY RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOMING WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301441
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
841 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THIS MORNING REVOLVED AROUND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING SO SPREAD POPS FARTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS.  GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROUGH FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CIGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000
AND 10000 FT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. BRIEFLY RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOMING WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROF LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROF DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND SETS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF STIES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS TO
PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE OFF CHANCE THAT MVFR VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG OR MIST WILL SNEAK OVER KSDY DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS...FROM THE ESE EARLY AROUND 10 MPH...GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE STORMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROF LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROF DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND SETS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF STIES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS TO
PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE OFF CHANCE THAT MVFR VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG OR MIST WILL SNEAK OVER KSDY DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS...FROM THE ESE EARLY AROUND 10 MPH...GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE STORMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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