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000
FXUS65 KGGW 011623
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
923 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST PLACES HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN
ISOLATED READING APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TAKING THE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE WEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL HAVE THE DRIER
NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING... WIND CHILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF REACHING -20 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER
THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE FEATURES AND RUNS THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO
COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START VERY COLD BUT
THE REST OF THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED BY DRY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY FROM 20 BELOW TO NEAR 0
CELSIUS. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITH COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM... DRY... DOWN-SLOPE
WINDED CHINOOKS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS AVERAGE WITH TWO FRONTS
CURRENTLY PEGGED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHINOOK RIDGES THURSDAY... SATURDAY... AND MONDAY.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS
END. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOMING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011623
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
923 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST PLACES HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN
ISOLATED READING APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TAKING THE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE WEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL HAVE THE DRIER
NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING... WIND CHILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF REACHING -20 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER
THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE FEATURES AND RUNS THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO
COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START VERY COLD BUT
THE REST OF THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED BY DRY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY FROM 20 BELOW TO NEAR 0
CELSIUS. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITH COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM... DRY... DOWN-SLOPE
WINDED CHINOOKS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS AVERAGE WITH TWO FRONTS
CURRENTLY PEGGED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHINOOK RIDGES THURSDAY... SATURDAY... AND MONDAY.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS
END. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOMING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010946
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TAKING THE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE WEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL HAVE THE DRIER
NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING... WIND CHILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF REACHING -20 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER
THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE FEATURES AND RUNS THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO
COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START VERY COLD BUT
THE REST OF THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED BY DRY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY FROM 20 BELOW TO NEAR 0
CELSIUS. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITH COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM... DRY... DOWN-SLOPE
WINDED CHINOOKS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS AVERAGE WITH TWO FRONTS
CURRENTLY PEGGED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHINOOK RIDGES THURSDAY... SATURDAY... AND MONDAY.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 06 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY VFR.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010946
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TAKING THE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE WEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL HAVE THE DRIER
NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING... WIND CHILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF REACHING -20 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER
THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE FEATURES AND RUNS THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO
COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START VERY COLD BUT
THE REST OF THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED BY DRY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY FROM 20 BELOW TO NEAR 0
CELSIUS. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITH COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM... DRY... DOWN-SLOPE
WINDED CHINOOKS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS AVERAGE WITH TWO FRONTS
CURRENTLY PEGGED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHINOOK RIDGES THURSDAY... SATURDAY... AND MONDAY.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 06 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY VFR.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010349
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 06 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY VFR.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010349
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 06 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY VFR.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 06Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 09 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 09Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 09 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 09Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 09 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 09Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 010312
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE READINGS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
THEREFORE AN ADJUSTMENT LOWER WAS REQUIRED IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPSTREAM SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
KEEP THE POPS AS IS FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.         PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS
TOWARD SCATTERED CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE
AREA SUCH AS THE OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN
IMPACTS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 09 TO 18Z. AFTERWARD SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CIGS: SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MVFR AFTER 09Z. CLOUDS WILL
DROP BELOW 2 KFT MAKING FUEL LOADING COMMON FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER
THAN KGGW THROUGH 18Z.

VSBY: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM 09Z TO
18Z. SNOW WILL COMMONLY REDUCE VSBY TO 5 TO 6 SM AS IT PASSES.
HEAVIER BANDS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING VSBY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 SM AS IS
EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN SWIFT CURRENT.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GAH/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282103
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
203 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS TOWARD SCATTERED
CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE AREA SUCH AS THE
OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES OUT OF CANADA...BRINGING LOWER CIGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

VSBY: MAINLY UNRESTRICTED. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 282103
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
203 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. THUS TRENDED UP POPS TOWARD SCATTERED
CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE UPSLOPE PRONE AREA SUCH AS THE
OPHEIM AREA AND THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL DECREASING POTENTIAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AGAIN
MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS
SUCH AS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
WIBAUX COUNTY.

SUNDAY NIGHT WEAK RIDING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR...MAKING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AN ENERGIZED TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HAVING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE REGION AND SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS THAT SETTLES IN WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH MAY PASS EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF STILL PAINTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20C TO -25C
RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ABSOLUTELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVERHEAD...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AS TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF CLEARING. AS SUCH CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS WILL NEED CLOSE ASSESSMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FASTER CLEARING WOULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHILE SLOWER CLEARING WOULD MEAN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR BLUSTERY WINDS AS WELL WHICH WHILE
MAY SERVE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...COULD PRODUCE
BITING...EVEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL ALSO
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS BUT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...CAN EASILY SEE LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE WESTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT TAKING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH...NOT CONVINCED THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MIXING IS LIMITED. THE GOOD NEWS IS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES OUT OF CANADA...BRINGING LOWER CIGS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

VSBY: MAINLY UNRESTRICTED. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WINDS: WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










000
FXUS65 KGGW 281557
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
857 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK
WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE EXTEND OF THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE THE
GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. A BKN LOW LEVEL DECK AT 2 TO 3
KFT AGL IS PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY.

VSBY:ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE ONLY LIMITED RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 281557
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
857 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK
WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE EXTEND OF THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE THE
GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. A BKN LOW LEVEL DECK AT 2 TO 3
KFT AGL IS PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY.

VSBY:ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE ONLY LIMITED RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 272149
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15KTS THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 272149
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15KTS THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 271005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN
FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND TERMINATES OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED WARMER AND SPREADS
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS. TO THE WEST A WEAK
LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE NORTH
AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER SIDE THESE TWO
CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 271005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN
FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND TERMINATES OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED WARMER AND SPREADS
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS. TO THE WEST A WEAK
LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE NORTH
AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER SIDE THESE TWO
CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 270307
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
807 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... MOST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OUT TO GENERATE A FROSTBITE
THREAT FROM WIND CHILLS. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 270307
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
807 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... MOST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OUT TO GENERATE A FROSTBITE
THREAT FROM WIND CHILLS. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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