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000
FXUS65 KGGW 220154 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
654 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EARLY UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO BEGIN WSW SOONER DUE TO CONTINUING RAIN
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SNOW BEGINS
LATER TONIGHT. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS...ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OFF
SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING. ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A
ZIPPER LINE A COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES OFF AND TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR
THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAY 7. THIS FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM
CURRENTLY SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
TROUGH LEAVES BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AFT 06Z WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS LOW VFR 035-080 WILL LOWER TO 015-035 AROUND
06Z...THEN TEMPOS OF 010 EXPECTED AFT 12Z LASTING THROUGH 00Z.

WIND: WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND 10-20 KNOTS SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY 06Z
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY LASTING THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING.      PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...
MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 220154 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
654 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EARLY UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO BEGIN WSW SOONER DUE TO CONTINUING RAIN
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SNOW BEGINS
LATER TONIGHT. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS...ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OFF
SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING. ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A
ZIPPER LINE A COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES OFF AND TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR
THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAY 7. THIS FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM
CURRENTLY SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
TROUGH LEAVES BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AFT 06Z WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS LOW VFR 035-080 WILL LOWER TO 015-035 AROUND
06Z...THEN TEMPOS OF 010 EXPECTED AFT 12Z LASTING THROUGH 00Z.

WIND: WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND 10-20 KNOTS SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY 06Z
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY LASTING THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING.      PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...
MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 212152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...


SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO... THE GREAT LAKES... THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS... ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING
OFF SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A ZIPPER LINE A
COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OFF AND
TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR
THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 7. THIS
FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS TROUGH LEAVES
BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO RAIN ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO AN ALL SNOW
SITUATION. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED EAST OF GLASGOW
WITH ALL SNOW AFTER 9PM

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE TO SNOW.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT THIS EVENING. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 212152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...


SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO... THE GREAT LAKES... THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS... ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING
OFF SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A ZIPPER LINE A
COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OFF AND
TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR
THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 7. THIS
FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS TROUGH LEAVES
BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO RAIN ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO AN ALL SNOW
SITUATION. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED EAST OF GLASGOW
WITH ALL SNOW AFTER 9PM

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE TO SNOW.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT THIS EVENING. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 212152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...


SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO... THE GREAT LAKES... THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS... ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING
OFF SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A ZIPPER LINE A
COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OFF AND
TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR
THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 7. THIS
FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS TROUGH LEAVES
BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO RAIN ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO AN ALL SNOW
SITUATION. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED EAST OF GLASGOW
WITH ALL SNOW AFTER 9PM

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE TO SNOW.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT THIS EVENING. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 212152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...


SYNOPTIC SET UP... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO... THE GREAT LAKES... THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TERMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS. A MINI RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES.
WEST OF THIS... ZONAL FLOW RUNS TO THE COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING
OFF SHORE. THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA ARE EXPERIENCE A COLD FRONT
RUNNING DOWN THEM WHICH SHOULD HIT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOME
TIME TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TRANSITION RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.
ONCE A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIKE A ZIPPER LINE A
COLD FRONT WILL PULL IN BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OFF AND
TRANSITIONING ALL REMAINING RAIN TO SNOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR
THE ZONE OF THE TREKKING SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECT TO REACH AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW PUT UP FOR THIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH ALLOWING CAA TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRY
SURFACE AIR MOVES IN THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT AND SNOW WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BY TUESDAY... PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BUT COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE NEW SURFACE HIGH.

GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEEPENING OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 7. THIS
FOLLOWS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM CURRENTLY
SEEN ON ANALYSES OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE. THIS TROUGH LEAVES
BEHIND SOME RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ON MONTANA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE DETAILS
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC MODEL BRINGING MOST OF THE SNOW
SOUTH OF THE GGW AREA WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AROUND 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY OVER MOST OF THE GGW AREA. SOME SNOW IS
PROBABLE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OF SOME SORT AT THIS TIME.

SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MARTIN


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-
WAVE EAST- LEANING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING
A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO RAIN ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO AN ALL SNOW
SITUATION. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED EAST OF GLASGOW
WITH ALL SNOW AFTER 9PM

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE TO SNOW.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT THIS EVENING. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 211639
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
939 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS A LINE FROM
MALTA TO JORDAN. CURRENT POPS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS HIT AND
MISS PRECIPITATION PRETTY WELL. SPOTTER REPORTS ARE ALSO MATCHING
UP WELL WITH QPF FIELDS IN PLACE. WINDS AND WEATHER TYPES WERE
TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO MATCH NEW MODEL FIELDS AND SPOTTER REPORTS
MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND THE WARM FRONT GENERATING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET
HOLDS ON IN THE NORTHEAST ACROSS DANIELS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION..,.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING
WESTERN MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST)
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND
WINNETT ARE IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR
FREEZING RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. THE CHANGE-OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE GGW AREA AROUND 3PM. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT
TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 211639
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
939 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS A LINE FROM
MALTA TO JORDAN. CURRENT POPS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS HIT AND
MISS PRECIPITATION PRETTY WELL. SPOTTER REPORTS ARE ALSO MATCHING
UP WELL WITH QPF FIELDS IN PLACE. WINDS AND WEATHER TYPES WERE
TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO MATCH NEW MODEL FIELDS AND SPOTTER REPORTS
MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND THE WARM FRONT GENERATING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET
HOLDS ON IN THE NORTHEAST ACROSS DANIELS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION..,.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING
WESTERN MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST)
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH
UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND
WINNETT ARE IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR
FREEZING RAIN. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. THE CHANGE-OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE GGW AREA AROUND 3PM. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT
TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN
MONTANA AT 09Z WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR RAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT (2 AM MST) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER TEENS
IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. ONLY SOME RIDGETOP AREAS AND WINNETT ARE
IN THE 30S. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS MORNING IN THE WEST FOR FREEZING RAIN.
WILL MAINTAIN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY NOON... MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY STAY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TURN THE
RAIN TO SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT... EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES AND AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE EAST-LEANING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A MEDIUM-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. THIS PLACES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A SPLIT TROUGH DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERN
CANADA KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE...SENDING A BROAD COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE
OVERRUNNING THE COLD BOUNDARY IN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO COME INTO SOME SORT OF
AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE...WITH THE EC
FURTHER SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL DETERMINE WX TYPE AND
WHERE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TOGETHER. SO RIGHT NOW A BLENDED SOLUTION POINTS TO NEMONT
GETTING AN INITIAL SHOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THEN TURNING TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW....MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS POINT TO A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE ORIGINAL SPLIT
TROUGH FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
NEMONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AS CAA IS SUSTAINED.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WILL CREATE LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

WIND INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO 15KT TO 25KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210329
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
829 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING QUIET
WEATHER IN PLACE. MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT
PROBABILITIES BEING FROM GLASGOW WEST WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT THIS TIME.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD. THIS SETUP
OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER....MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND ITS
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL BLEND
CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES AND
TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS SHARPEN
INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND
18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT. SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15KT-25KT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210329
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
829 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING QUIET
WEATHER IN PLACE. MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT
PROBABILITIES BEING FROM GLASGOW WEST WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT THIS TIME.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD. THIS SETUP
OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER....MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND ITS
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL BLEND
CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES AND
TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS SHARPEN
INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND
18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT. SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15KT-25KT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210329
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
829 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING QUIET
WEATHER IN PLACE. MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT
PROBABILITIES BEING FROM GLASGOW WEST WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT THIS TIME.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD. THIS SETUP
OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER....MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND ITS
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL BLEND
CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES AND
TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS SHARPEN
INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND
18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT. SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15KT-25KT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210329
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
829 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING QUIET
WEATHER IN PLACE. MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT
PROBABILITIES BEING FROM GLASGOW WEST WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT THIS TIME.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD. THIS SETUP
OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES. BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER....MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND ITS
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL BLEND
CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES AND
TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS SHARPEN
INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND
18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT. SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15KT-25KT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 202219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD.

THIS SETUP OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON
SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE SUB FREEZING COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY
TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM...PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED
FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AND OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER.... MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS
SNOW TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL
BLEND CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES
AND TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS
SHARPEN INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE
COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND 18Z PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BUT
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON... VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 202219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
POISED TO BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
DOMINATES. A POTENT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN INVERSION KEEPS TEMPS AT THE SURFACE COLD.

THIS SETUP OF WARM AIR ALOFT/COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT ON
SUNDAY. BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE SUB FREEZING COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUS WITH HOLIDAY
TRAVEL IN MIND...ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PETROLEUM...PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD REMAIN AT THE SURFACE FOR A CONTINUED
FREEZING RAIN THREAT. A THREAT THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIP TYPE TO JUST RAIN AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...LASTING INTO MONDAY. ALSO MONDAY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
NOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH HAS THE ABILITY TO CREATE A SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AND OVERRUNNING SNOW
EVENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING MID DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER.... MODEL ARE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE A MID LEVEL JET AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW WILL PASS AND FORM. BECAUSE OF THIS
SNOW TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 6 INCHES TO A TRACE. WITH A MODEL
BLEND CURRENT GUESS IS FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BUT CHANCES
AND TOTALS COULD EASILY CREEP UP IN LATER FORECAST AND MODELS
SHARPEN INTO VIEW. NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK REINFORCES THE
COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

FOG: LIGHT RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND
MILK RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW SHOULD
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP AROUND 18Z PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BUT
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON... VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 201559
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA HAS WRAPPED
UP TO THE POINT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY...THUS ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRECIP TYPE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MIX OF ABOVE AND
BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A VARIETY OF
PRECIP TYPES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WARMER AIR ALOFT... AT LEAST
SOME OF THE PRECIP IS FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THAT ANY AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY... WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS MORNING.

THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WHICH WILL BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS INTO SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON MONDAY WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

MORNING SHOWERS: WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

FOG: RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND MILK
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT VERY LIKELY.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN INT EH MORNING BUT
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON... VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 201559
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA HAS WRAPPED
UP TO THE POINT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY...THUS ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRECIP TYPE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MIX OF ABOVE AND
BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A VARIETY OF
PRECIP TYPES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WARMER AIR ALOFT... AT LEAST
SOME OF THE PRECIP IS FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THAT ANY AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY... WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS MORNING.

THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WHICH WILL BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS INTO SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON MONDAY WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... IFR LATE IN CYCLE.

MORNING SHOWERS: WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

FOG: RADIATION FOG IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MISSOURI AND MILK
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT VERY LIKELY.

STORM AND FREEZING RAIN: AFTER 12Z LATE IN THE CYCLE KGGW
EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER TERMINALS WILL DROP JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN INT EH MORNING BUT
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREA WIND: OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON... VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 201029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
329 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MIX OF ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WARMER AIR ALOFT... AT LEAST
SOME OF THE PRECIP IS FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THAT ANY AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY... WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS MORNING.

THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WHICH WILL BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS INTO SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON MONDAY WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL
BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. FROM CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA A BROAD AREA OF
LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG COULD MAKE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

EXPECT LIGHT WIND TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT-
20KT TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201029
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
329 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR ALOFT AND A MIX OF ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WARMER AIR ALOFT... AT LEAST
SOME OF THE PRECIP IS FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THAT ANY AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY... WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS MORNING.

THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE MORNING WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WHICH WILL BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS INTO SNOW BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER ON MONDAY WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BEGINS TO NUDGE TO
BOUNDARY TOWARDS MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
LEANS OVER TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
DIRECTLY FROM THE OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BC WHICH
WILL PICK UP MOISTURE. THE COLD AIR BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED SOUTH AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THIS POINT ON THE EC AND GFS
DIFFER IN STORM LOCATION. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW
LOCATION. THE EC SENDS IT MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE GFS
SPREADS SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

BY 00Z THURSDAY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW. WHILE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL END UP WITH AN INCH OR
TWO...MOST QPF TRENDS SOUTH...GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
OUR NEIGHBORS LATE IN THE WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL
BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. FROM CANADA AND NORTH DAKOTA A BROAD AREA OF
LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG COULD MAKE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

EXPECT LIGHT WIND TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT-
20KT TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 200255
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
755 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TONIGHT WAS TO BETTER TRACE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK ALONG THE BORDERS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN OVER ALL GOOD SHAPE. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
AS OF NOW WITH THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARD MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...PLACES THAT SEE
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

LATEST NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NICE WARM NOSE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SUGGEST THAT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WEATHER
TYPES. PRECIPITATION FOR ROUND TWO WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WINTRY MIX BUT AS WARMER AIR RUSHES IN...A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD
ENSUE. NORTHERN TIER ZONES MAY CONTINUE WITH A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...THE GROUND MAY STILL
BE FROZEN. THUS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF SO THE STAKES
ARE A BIT HIGHER IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR A MIX
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS BEARS
MONITORING. CONSIDERING THAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF...CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH ON THIS SECOND EVENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
YET THERE WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER FAVORING A
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THUS THE ONLY TWEAK WAS TO CONSERVATIVELY TREND UP
POPS FOR THE 25TH. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. EXPECT SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WIDESPREAD DECK OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT MIGHT BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AND
TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF THE DECK APPROACHES CLOSER.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT OF 10KT-20KT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECT WIND TO BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
LIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 200255
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
755 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TONIGHT WAS TO BETTER TRACE THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRATUS DECK ALONG THE BORDERS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN OVER ALL GOOD SHAPE. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
AS OF NOW WITH THE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARD MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...PLACES THAT SEE
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

LATEST NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NICE WARM NOSE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SUGGEST THAT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WEATHER
TYPES. PRECIPITATION FOR ROUND TWO WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WINTRY MIX BUT AS WARMER AIR RUSHES IN...A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD
ENSUE. NORTHERN TIER ZONES MAY CONTINUE WITH A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...THE GROUND MAY STILL
BE FROZEN. THUS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF SO THE STAKES
ARE A BIT HIGHER IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR A MIX
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS BEARS
MONITORING. CONSIDERING THAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF...CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH ON THIS SECOND EVENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
YET THERE WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER FAVORING A
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THUS THE ONLY TWEAK WAS TO CONSERVATIVELY TREND UP
POPS FOR THE 25TH. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. EXPECT SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WIDESPREAD DECK OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT MIGHT BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AND
TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF THE DECK APPROACHES CLOSER.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT OF 10KT-20KT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECT WIND TO BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
LIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 192136
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
236 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARD MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...PLACES THAT SEE
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

LATEST NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NICE WARM NOSE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SUGGEST THAT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WEATHER
TYPES. PRECIPITATION FOR ROUND TWO WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WINTRY MIX BUT AS WARMER AIR RUSHES IN...A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD
ENSUE. NORTHERN TIER ZONES MAY CONTINUE WITH A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...THE GROUND MAY STILL
BE FROZEN. THUS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF SO THE STAKES
ARE A BIT HIGHER IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR A MIX
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS BEARS
MONITORING. CONSIDERING THAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF...CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH ON THIS SECOND EVENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
YET THERE WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER FAVORING A
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. THUS THE ONLY TWEAK WAS TO CONSERVATIVELY TREND UP POPS FOR
THE 25TH. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
THIS EVENING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING
MIXED PRECIP AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY MORNING.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...BECOMING MVFR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...REBOUNDING TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

VISIBILITY: MAINLY UNRESTRICTED. POSSIBLE 3-5 SM WITH HEAVIER MIXED
PRECIP SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST 5-15KTS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 192136
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
236 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARD MORNING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...PLACES THAT SEE
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

LATEST NAM FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NICE WARM NOSE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH SUGGEST THAT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WEATHER
TYPES. PRECIPITATION FOR ROUND TWO WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WINTRY MIX BUT AS WARMER AIR RUSHES IN...A CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD
ENSUE. NORTHERN TIER ZONES MAY CONTINUE WITH A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...THE GROUND MAY STILL
BE FROZEN. THUS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF SO THE STAKES
ARE A BIT HIGHER IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
EXPECTATIONS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR A MIX
WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS BEARS
MONITORING. CONSIDERING THAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF QPF...CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH ON THIS SECOND EVENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
YET THERE WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEW ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TOGETHER FAVORING A
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. THUS THE ONLY TWEAK WAS TO CONSERVATIVELY TREND UP POPS FOR
THE 25TH. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
THIS EVENING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...BRINGING
MIXED PRECIP AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY MORNING.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...BECOMING MVFR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...REBOUNDING TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

VISIBILITY: MAINLY UNRESTRICTED. POSSIBLE 3-5 SM WITH HEAVIER MIXED
PRECIP SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST 5-15KTS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 191649
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
949 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT AND AWAY FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE REGION AS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM ACROSS. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AND A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. WILL PROVIDE THE LATEST THINKING
WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS FINALLY BEING
USHERED EASTWARD AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT NOT BEFORE A
FEW LOCATIONS TRY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. BY SUNRISE...THE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERNS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE CLEARED OUT ALL FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM NE MONTANA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS CORNER FOR NOW.

TODAY WILL BE A NICE...WARM DAY UNDER A PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE 30 DEGREES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A PERSISTENT NOSE OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A WINTRY MIX BEING POSSIBLE AND
EVEN LIKELY AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MODEL DATA HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEPICTING A MESSY
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND BETTER TIMING BETWEEN
MODELS...THE GREATEST IMPACT SEEMS TO BE ON SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THIS INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES. THIS NOW READS FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN OUR FORECAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MALTA TO
TERRY. EVEN SMALLER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH COULD ALSO EASILY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH ICE ON AREA ROADS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND CLEAR THE REMAINING FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LIFR-IFR IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY AND
ANYWHERE PATCHY FOG OCCURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-010 UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE FLYING AREA WITH
ISOLATED VSBY DOWN TO 1/4 SM WITH FZFG AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 191649
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
949 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT AND AWAY FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE REGION AS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM ACROSS. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS TO FREEZING RAIN AND A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. WILL PROVIDE THE LATEST THINKING
WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS FINALLY BEING
USHERED EASTWARD AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT NOT BEFORE A
FEW LOCATIONS TRY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. BY SUNRISE...THE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERNS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE CLEARED OUT ALL FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM NE MONTANA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS CORNER FOR NOW.

TODAY WILL BE A NICE...WARM DAY UNDER A PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE 30 DEGREES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A PERSISTENT NOSE OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A WINTRY MIX BEING POSSIBLE AND
EVEN LIKELY AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MODEL DATA HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEPICTING A MESSY
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND BETTER TIMING BETWEEN
MODELS...THE GREATEST IMPACT SEEMS TO BE ON SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THIS INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES. THIS NOW READS FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN OUR FORECAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MALTA TO
TERRY. EVEN SMALLER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH COULD ALSO EASILY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH ICE ON AREA ROADS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND CLEAR THE REMAINING FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LIFR-IFR IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY AND
ANYWHERE PATCHY FOG OCCURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-010 UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE FLYING AREA WITH
ISOLATED VSBY DOWN TO 1/4 SM WITH FZFG AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191038
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
338 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS FINALLY BEING
USHERED EASTWARD AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...BUT NOT BEFORE A
FEW LOCATIONS TRY TO HOLD ON TO SOME LAST ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE.
THIS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. BY SUNRISE...THE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERNS IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE CLEARED OUT ALL FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM NE MONTANA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS CORNER FOR NOW.

TODAY WILL BE A NICE...WARM DAY UNDER A PASSING SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE 30 DEGREES WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A PERSISTENT NOSE OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A WINTERY MIX BEING POSSIBLE AND
EVEN LIKELY AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MODEL DATA HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN DEPICTING A MESSY
WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND BETTER TIMING BETWEEN
MODELS...THE GREATEST IMPACT SEEMS TO BE ON SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THIS INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES. THIS NOW READS FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN OUR FORECAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MALTA TO
TERRY. EVEN SMALLER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH COULD ALSO EASILY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH ICE ON AREA ROADS. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO THE AREA.

SUNDAY EVENING STILL LOOK LIKE IT HAS A MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE WARM ENOUGH
AIR ALOFT FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OVERNIGHT
SO THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD HAVE WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A MIX OF RAIN.

THE MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING EAST. LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS CURRENTLY KEEPS THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COLDER.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
INDICATE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND CLEAR THE REMAINING FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LIFR-IFR IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER EARLY AND
ANYWHERE PATCHY FOG OCCURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-010 UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE FLYING AREA WITH
ISOLATED VSBY DOWN TO 1/4 SM WITH FZFG AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR EASTERN
ROOSEVELT...SHERIDAN.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 190248 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
GOING TO CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY COUNTIES FOR NOW. THE STRATUS-FOG LINE RUNS FROM DODSON TO
SAINT MARIE TO WOLF POINT TO FAIRVIEW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOG/IR SAT IS GETTING OBSCURED BY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ZIPPING THROUGH.
A FEW FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST UNDER MID CLOUD MOVING
BY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AREA CAMERAS CONFIRM FOG
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. DID BRING TEMPS UP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE THICK STRATUS DECK...AND DECREASED THEM ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS WARMING
AROUND 850 MB/S WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION AT KGGW...DO EXPECT THE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE EXTENT OF
STRATUS AND FOG. PHONE CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SOME DECREASE IN THE EXTENT OF FOG COVERAGE IN PHILLIPS
COUNTY...WHILE NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY HOLDS STRONG. WITH THE MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN PHILLIPS COUNTY REMAINING IMPACTED...HELD
ON TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PHILIPS
COUNTY. WITH NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY REMAINING STEADFAST IN THE FOG
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...RIME ICE BUILDUP ON POWER LINES COULD START
CAUSING POWER ISSUES. THUS MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. MODELS DEPICT SOME POSSIBLE EROSION OF THE FOG AND
STRATUS BY SUNRISE AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE PUSHES THROUGH...THUS
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH WILL AGAIN HELP
SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS AND OR FOG AND WARM TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LACKING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FEATURE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO MORE
CHANCE CATEGORY WHILE IT PASSES. PRECIP TYPE CONTINUES TO LOOK
MIXED IN NATURE...WITH FREEZING RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY. GIVEN THE
HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF -FZRA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT
ON SOCIAL MEDIA...THROUGH OUR WEATHER STORIES...AND THROUGH OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW MORE INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION
STARTING A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVOLVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE
REGION.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF A TRICKY FORECAST
WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS OF THE WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SEE A
SWITCH TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY
MENTION OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR RAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN
EITHER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR NEARBY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK LIKE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING
RAIN.

THAT FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURES.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
SHORTHWAVES AND COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES TURNING COLDER WITH EACH SYSTEM. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN BY 18Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LIFR-IFR NORTH AND EAST OF A KM75-KGGW-KGDV LINE...VFR
SOUTH AND WEST.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-010 UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE FLYING AREA WITH
ISOLATED VSBY DOWN TO 1/2 SM WITH FZFG AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...MID-
HIGH VFR CIGS AND EXTREMELY ISOLATED BCFG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 190248 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...
GOING TO CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY COUNTIES FOR NOW. THE STRATUS-FOG LINE RUNS FROM DODSON TO
SAINT MARIE TO WOLF POINT TO FAIRVIEW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOG/IR SAT IS GETTING OBSCURED BY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ZIPPING THROUGH.
A FEW FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST UNDER MID CLOUD MOVING
BY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AREA CAMERAS CONFIRM FOG
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. DID BRING TEMPS UP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE THICK STRATUS DECK...AND DECREASED THEM ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS WARMING
AROUND 850 MB/S WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION AT KGGW...DO EXPECT THE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR THE STRATUS
AND FOG TO RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE EXTENT OF
STRATUS AND FOG. PHONE CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SOME DECREASE IN THE EXTENT OF FOG COVERAGE IN PHILLIPS
COUNTY...WHILE NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY HOLDS STRONG. WITH THE MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS IN PHILLIPS COUNTY REMAINING IMPACTED...HELD
ON TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PHILIPS
COUNTY. WITH NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY REMAINING STEADFAST IN THE FOG
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...RIME ICE BUILDUP ON POWER LINES COULD START
CAUSING POWER ISSUES. THUS MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. MODELS DEPICT SOME POSSIBLE EROSION OF THE FOG AND
STRATUS BY SUNRISE AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE PUSHES THROUGH...THUS
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH WILL AGAIN HELP
SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS AND OR FOG AND WARM TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LACKING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FEATURE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO MORE
CHANCE CATEGORY WHILE IT PASSES. PRECIP TYPE CONTINUES TO LOOK
MIXED IN NATURE...WITH FREEZING RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY. GIVEN THE
HIGH IMPACT NATURE OF -FZRA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT
ON SOCIAL MEDIA...THROUGH OUR WEATHER STORIES...AND THROUGH OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW MORE INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION
STARTING A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO EVOLVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE
REGION.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF A TRICKY FORECAST
WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS OF THE WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ON SUNDAY MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SEE A
SWITCH TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY
MENTION OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND/OR RAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN
EITHER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR NEARBY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK LIKE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH ALOFT WHILE THE SURFACE IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING
RAIN.

THAT FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT. LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURES.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
SHORTHWAVES AND COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES TURNING COLDER WITH EACH SYSTEM. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN BY 18Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LIFR-IFR NORTH AND EAST OF A KM75-KGGW-KGDV LINE...VFR
SOUTH AND WEST.

CIGS AND VSBY: CIGS WILL CONTINUE FROM SFC-010 UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE FLYING AREA WITH
ISOLATED VSBY DOWN TO 1/2 SM WITH FZFG AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...MID-
HIGH VFR CIGS AND EXTREMELY ISOLATED BCFG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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