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000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE TROUGH
PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING PATCHY
FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK IN TO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE TROUGH
PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING PATCHY
FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK IN TO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290154 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
754 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE
STORMS ARE SUSTAINED AND SUPPORTED BY THE LEADING COLD FRONT
DESCENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. COMMUNICATION FROM THE
CANADIAN STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THE LEADING
SUPERCELL IS IN FACE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPDATED THE GRIDS INTO 3-HOURLY SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPEED
OF THESE STORMS AND TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING. EXPECT THE SEVERITY
TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LESS-FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS
FOUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE
WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO MOST
AREAS TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND WORK IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. AGAIN...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE WITH THE NE ZONES
LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE MOST QPF (WHERE THEY TAP INTO DEEPER
INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DESPITE HIGHER THICKNESSES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH THE 28/00Z SUITE. WILL EXPECT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN
AND LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES OUT
OF THE REGION THERE MAY BE A SLOW UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM COULD TEMPORARILY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. GAUGES
THAT ARE STILL RISING ARE THE MILK RIVER AT TAMPICO AND THE BEAVER
CREEK SOUTH OF SACO. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 245 PM FRIDAY AS THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO HAS
RECENTLY CRESTED AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290154 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
754 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE
STORMS ARE SUSTAINED AND SUPPORTED BY THE LEADING COLD FRONT
DESCENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. COMMUNICATION FROM THE
CANADIAN STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THE LEADING
SUPERCELL IS IN FACE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPDATED THE GRIDS INTO 3-HOURLY SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPEED
OF THESE STORMS AND TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING. EXPECT THE SEVERITY
TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LESS-FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS
FOUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE
WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO MOST
AREAS TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND WORK IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. AGAIN...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE WITH THE NE ZONES
LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE MOST QPF (WHERE THEY TAP INTO DEEPER
INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DESPITE HIGHER THICKNESSES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH THE 28/00Z SUITE. WILL EXPECT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN
AND LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES OUT
OF THE REGION THERE MAY BE A SLOW UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM COULD TEMPORARILY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. GAUGES
THAT ARE STILL RISING ARE THE MILK RIVER AT TAMPICO AND THE BEAVER
CREEK SOUTH OF SACO. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 245 PM FRIDAY AS THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO HAS
RECENTLY CRESTED AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282024
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER FLOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND WORK IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. AGAIN...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE WITH THE NE ZONES
LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE MOST QPF (WHERE THEY TAP INTO DEEPER
INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DESPITE HIGHER THICKNESSES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH THE 28/00Z SUITE. WILL EXPECT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN
AND LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES OUT
OF THE REGION THERE MAY BE A SLOW UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM COULD TEMPORARILY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. GAUGES THAT ARE
STILL RISING ARE THE MILK RIVER AT TAMPICO AND THE BEAVER CREEK
SOUTH OF SACO. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 245 PM FRIDAY AS THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO HAS RECENTLY
CRESTED AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 282024
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER FLOW IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD GIVE AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND WORK IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. AGAIN...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO BRING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE A BIT BETTER COVERAGE WITH THE NE ZONES
LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE MOST QPF (WHERE THEY TAP INTO DEEPER
INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DESPITE HIGHER THICKNESSES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE 28/12Z GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MUCH
IN LINE WITH THE 28/00Z SUITE. WILL EXPECT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN
AND LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES OUT
OF THE REGION THERE MAY BE A SLOW UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 8000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM COULD TEMPORARILY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WILL SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. GAUGES THAT ARE
STILL RISING ARE THE MILK RIVER AT TAMPICO AND THE BEAVER CREEK
SOUTH OF SACO. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 245 PM FRIDAY AS THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO HAS RECENTLY
CRESTED AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281524
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...SO RAISED POPS A BIT. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INCLUDING MONTANA WITH JUST A
BIT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STORM SYSTEM REACHING ITS CLOUD
SHIELD OVER SE CWA.

TODAY...JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A VERY SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...BUT BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THAT CHANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND FOCUS OVER OUR SE ZONES. ENOUGH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONCENTRATED THIS PRECIP OF THE SAME AREA FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
THAT I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE POPS THERE TO LIKELY.
MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT I DO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
PRECIP THERE BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...A MUCH-LARGER AND MORE-PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENVELOPES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DIRECTING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO OUR REGION. MODEL BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASICALLY ALONG A LINE FROM PLENTYWOOD TO
GLENDIVE. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING NORTH. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT BOX
ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281524
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT...SO RAISED POPS A BIT. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INCLUDING MONTANA WITH JUST A
BIT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STORM SYSTEM REACHING ITS CLOUD
SHIELD OVER SE CWA.

TODAY...JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A VERY SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...BUT BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THAT CHANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND FOCUS OVER OUR SE ZONES. ENOUGH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONCENTRATED THIS PRECIP OF THE SAME AREA FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
THAT I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE POPS THERE TO LIKELY.
MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT I DO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
PRECIP THERE BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...A MUCH-LARGER AND MORE-PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENVELOPES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DIRECTING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO OUR REGION. MODEL BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASICALLY ALONG A LINE FROM PLENTYWOOD TO
GLENDIVE. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING NORTH. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT BOX
ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280924
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
324 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INCLUDING MONTANA WITH JUST A
BIT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STORM SYSTEM REACHING ITS CLOUD
SHIELD OVER SE CWA.

TODAY...JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A VERY SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...BUT BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THAT CHANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND FOCUS OVER OUR SE ZONES. ENOUGH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONCENTRATED THIS PRECIP OF THE SAME AREA FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
THAT I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE POPS THERE TO LIKELY.
MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT I DO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
PRECIP THERE BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...A MUCH-LARGER AND MORE-PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENVELOPES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DIRECTING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO OUR REGION. MODEL BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASICALLY ALONG A LINE FROM PLENTYWOOD TO
GLENDIVE. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT BOX
ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280924
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
324 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INCLUDING MONTANA WITH JUST A
BIT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS STORM SYSTEM REACHING ITS CLOUD
SHIELD OVER SE CWA.

TODAY...JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A VERY SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...BUT BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THAT CHANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND FOCUS OVER OUR SE ZONES. ENOUGH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE
CONCENTRATED THIS PRECIP OF THE SAME AREA FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
THAT I FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE POPS THERE TO LIKELY.
MIGHT NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT I DO EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
PRECIP THERE BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...A MUCH-LARGER AND MORE-PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENVELOPES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DIRECTING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO OUR REGION. MODEL BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASICALLY ALONG A LINE FROM PLENTYWOOD TO
GLENDIVE. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF WILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT BOX
ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280225 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT FOR SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER VALLEY AND THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. SOME FOG SNUCK INTO THE SIDNEY
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND I THINK IT MIGHT DO
IT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
VALLEY FOG IF RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OTHERWISE DID TREND HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY...IN FACT...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT
WITH WETTING RAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM TERRY TO WIBAUX AS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
THINKING GIVEN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AND CURRENT
GRIDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH 27/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATURDAY/S
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN SOME CASES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO OCCUR BEST IN THE NE
ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED. THEN MODELS SEEM TO FALL
APART FOR SUNDAY...SO DID NOT TOUCH THIS DAY NOR DAYS THEREAFTER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASK LATE THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT THE
BOX ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 280225 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT FOR SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER VALLEY AND THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. SOME FOG SNUCK INTO THE SIDNEY
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND I THINK IT MIGHT DO
IT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
VALLEY FOG IF RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OTHERWISE DID TREND HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY...IN FACT...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT
WITH WETTING RAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM TERRY TO WIBAUX AS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
THINKING GIVEN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AND CURRENT
GRIDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH 27/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATURDAY/S
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN SOME CASES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO OCCUR BEST IN THE NE
ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED. THEN MODELS SEEM TO FALL
APART FOR SUNDAY...SO DID NOT TOUCH THIS DAY NOR DAYS THEREAFTER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASK LATE THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT THE
BOX ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 272055
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG IF RADIATIONAL COOLING
BECOMES EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW
POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OTHERWISE DID TREND HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY...IN FACT...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT
WITH WETTING RAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM TERRY TO WIBAUX AS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
THINKING GIVEN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AND CURRENT
GRIDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH 27/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATURDAY/S
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN SOME CASES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO OCCUR BEST IN THE NE
ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED. THEN MODELS SEEM TO FALL
APART FOR SUNDAY...SO DID NOT TOUCH THIS DAY NOR DAYS THEREAFTER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASK LATE THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT.  TFJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK AREAS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT THE BOX ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 272055
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG IF RADIATIONAL COOLING
BECOMES EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW
POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OTHERWISE DID TREND HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY...IN FACT...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT
WITH WETTING RAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM TERRY TO WIBAUX AS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
THINKING GIVEN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AND CURRENT
GRIDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH 27/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATURDAY/S
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN SOME CASES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO OCCUR BEST IN THE NE
ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED. THEN MODELS SEEM TO FALL
APART FOR SUNDAY...SO DID NOT TOUCH THIS DAY NOR DAYS THEREAFTER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH A LIGHT WIND.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASK LATE THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT.  TFJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK AREAS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT THE BOX ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE
STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 271517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...
A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING THROUGH THE 80S. WILL EXPECT
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL AND THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT WAS TO WEAK WINDS A LITTLE
TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND TO
BRING CURRENT TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. TFJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE WORST
FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY FALLING.
WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE MILK
RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 271517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...
A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING THROUGH THE 80S. WILL EXPECT
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS WELL AND THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT WAS TO WEAK WINDS A LITTLE
TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND TO
BRING CURRENT TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. TFJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE WORST
FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY FALLING.
WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE MILK
RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WILL
BE OF LITTLE OR NO CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE
WORST FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE
MILK RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WILL
BE OF LITTLE OR NO CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE
WORST FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE
MILK RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 270956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WILL
BE OF LITTLE OR NO CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE
WORST FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE
MILK RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 270956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SEMI CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
NORTHEAST MONTANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

JET PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WILL
BE OF LITTLE OR NO CONSEQUENCE. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT FOR A SMALLER AREA TODAY. THE
WORST FLOODING IS PRESENTLY IN THE GLASGOW AREA WHERE MAJOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MILK RIVER BUT WITH LEVELS GRADUALLY
FALLING. WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY AT GAGE SITES ON THE
MILK RIVER FROM MALTA TO NASHUA BUT THE RIVER FLOODING IS ONLY IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THE BEAVER AND LARB CREEKS IN
PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE THINGS ARE LEVELING OFF.

THE WATER LEVEL ON THE MUSSELLSHELL RIVER ON THE BORDER OF
GARFIELD AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES CONTINUES TO FALL AND IS ALMOST
BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MANY OUTLYING ROADS IN PETROLEUM COUNTY
WERE DAMAGED DUE TO THE FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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