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000
FXUS65 KGGW 301528 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WIND AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. RADAR
HAS REVEALED A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60-60KT OVERRUNNING THE
FRONT. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS PLACED OUT WESTERN ZONES WITHING A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR TODAY. BASED ON AN INVERTED V VERTICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
THIS IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS. THE OTHER ISSUE REMAINS THE SMOKE FROM DISTANCE
WILDFIRES. THE SMOKE ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...AND VISIBILITY
SENSORS ARE MEASURING SMOKE FROM 3SM TO 5SM. THE AREA WITH THE
LEAST SMOKE IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. BUT SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE LATER.

UPDATE WAS TO MAINLY EDIT POPS AND WX BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS ELSEWHERE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/VFR

SMOKE SEEMS TO BE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BETTER COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE KGGW
AREA.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW AT 10-15 KT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY BE
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 301528 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WIND AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. RADAR
HAS REVEALED A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60-60KT OVERRUNNING THE
FRONT. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...SPC HAS PLACED OUT WESTERN ZONES WITHING A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR TODAY. BASED ON AN INVERTED V VERTICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
THIS IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS. THE OTHER ISSUE REMAINS THE SMOKE FROM DISTANCE
WILDFIRES. THE SMOKE ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...AND VISIBILITY
SENSORS ARE MEASURING SMOKE FROM 3SM TO 5SM. THE AREA WITH THE
LEAST SMOKE IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. BUT SMOKE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE LATER.

UPDATE WAS TO MAINLY EDIT POPS AND WX BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS ELSEWHERE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/VFR

SMOKE SEEMS TO BE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BETTER COVERAGE THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE KGGW
AREA.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW AT 10-15 KT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY BE
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM
TO 5SM AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE
JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE RECEIVING AS DENSE OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM
TO 5SM AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE
JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE RECEIVING AS DENSE OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 301016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM
TO 5SM AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE
JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE RECEIVING AS DENSE OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
416 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS UPPER
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH STACKED WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE SMOKE.
SHOWERS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY COULD CLEAR SOME OF THE SMOKE OUT
OF THE AIR...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON MONDAY
EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL RETURN. VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...BUT STILL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY GOING AS HAVE SOME EXPECTATION OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH HOT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERTS SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND A WARM RIDGE RUNNING
OUT OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. A CLOSED LOW SETS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND IS GENERATING UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WAITING FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO MOVE IN AND BEGIN MIXING DOWNWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME... BUT... MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED A SINGLE
JET OR WAVE FEATURES TO LATCH ONTO AND EACH MODEL IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT IN WHERE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM OR MOVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT... SYNOPTIC TROUGH BASE TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND FURTHER DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY ONWARD... MODELS BEGIN HAVING TROUBLE WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES HERE... BUT THE GENERAL OUTCOME IS FOR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO BE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA OR HAVE JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY.  GAH



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1SM
TO 5SM AT THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE
JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE RECEIVING AS DENSE OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300245
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

UPDATE...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED TO ADD GUSTY
WIND TO THE FORECAST AND EXTEND THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
FURTHER EAST. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMOKE HAS HELPED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT TODAY AS THE
WEAKER SUN HAS NOT ALLOWED MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES TO REACH
THEIR TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.

THE VORT MAX SHOULD KICK UP SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. A
WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ON MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SMOKE). WEST
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO STRONG AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE
DAY.

CONCERNING THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY...AM BANKING ON SHOWERS AND
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE IN THE AREA.
WEST WINDS MONDAY THOUGH MAY BRING THICK SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FLUCTUATE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS FOR NOW SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT QUITE
MAKE IT TROUGH THE CWA DURING THE WEEK. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONCUR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE POSSIBLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE TREND IS FOR COOLING AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND. NO NEEDED GRID EDITS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE
TROUGH EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS TIME UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED.
MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IFR - VFR

SMOKE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MIX OF LOW LEVEL OBSCURATIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND MID LEVEL CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM TO 5SM AT AT THE KGGW AND KOLF
TERMINALS. KSDY AND KGDV APPEAR TO BE JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE
SMOKE PLUME AND THEREFORE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE RECEIVING AS DENSE
OF COVERAGE WITH VSBYS STILL IN VFR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE
SMOKE.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.... THEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

GAH/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292042
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SMOKE HAS HELPED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT TODAY AS THE WEAKER
SUN HAS NOT ALLOWED MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES REACH THEIR
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.

THE VORT MAX SHOULD KICK UP SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. A
WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ON MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SMOKE). WEST
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO STRONG AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE
DAY.

CONCERNING THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY...AM BANKING ON SHOWERS AND
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE IN THE AREA.
WEST WINDS MONDAY THOUGH MAY BRING THICK SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA.
TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FLUCTUATE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS FOR NOW SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT QUITE
MAKE IT TROUGH THE CWA DURING THE WEEK. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONCUR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE POSSIBLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE TREND IS FOR COOLING AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND. NO NEEDED GRID EDITS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE
TROUGH EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS TIME UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED.
MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE AND CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND
3/4SM-5SM AT ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND
1.9K TO 3K AGL AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS. THEN LATE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292042
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
242 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SMOKE HAS HELPED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT TODAY AS THE WEAKER
SUN HAS NOT ALLOWED MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES REACH THEIR
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.

THE VORT MAX SHOULD KICK UP SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. A
WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ON MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE (IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH SMOKE). WEST
WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO STRONG AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE
DAY.

CONCERNING THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY...AM BANKING ON SHOWERS AND
WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE IN THE AREA.
WEST WINDS MONDAY THOUGH MAY BRING THICK SMOKE BACK INTO THE AREA.
TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL FLUCTUATE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURES. MODELS FOR NOW SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT QUITE
MAKE IT TROUGH THE CWA DURING THE WEEK. SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONCUR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE POSSIBLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THE TREND IS FOR COOLING AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND. NO NEEDED GRID EDITS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE
TROUGH EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL
BRING A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT
INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS TIME UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED.
MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE AND CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND
3/4SM-5SM AT ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND
1.9K TO 3K AGL AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS. THEN LATE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY INCREASE TO 10-15KT.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291445
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN ZONES AND PUSHED IT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOPING THAT ENOUGH WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SMOKE ENOUGH TO RAISE VISIBILITIES
ABOVE 3 MILES AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2SM-3SM AT
ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K TO 3.5K AGL
AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291445
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN ZONES AND PUSHED IT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOPING THAT ENOUGH WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SMOKE ENOUGH TO RAISE VISIBILITIES
ABOVE 3 MILES AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2SM-3SM AT
ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K TO 3.5K AGL
AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291445
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN ZONES AND PUSHED IT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOPING THAT ENOUGH WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SMOKE ENOUGH TO RAISE VISIBILITIES
ABOVE 3 MILES AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2SM-3SM AT
ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K TO 3.5K AGL
AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291445
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN ZONES AND PUSHED IT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOPING THAT ENOUGH WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SMOKE ENOUGH TO RAISE VISIBILITIES
ABOVE 3 MILES AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A COMPLEX MIX OF OBSCURATIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
CIGS FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT IS MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2SM-3SM AT
ALL TERMINAL AREAS...AND VFR/MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 2.5K TO 3.5K AGL
AT KGGW AND KOLF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD ALLEVIATE THE SMOKE EVENTUALLY.

EXPECT LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ALONG WITH VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291008
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
408 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
BRING MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING VSBYS BY THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291008
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
408 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
BRING MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING VSBYS BY THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290250
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...SMOKE FROM WESTERN MONTANA WILDFIRES IS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL RAISE LOWS
IN SOME AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THOUGH SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABOUT MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS. MALIAWCO


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290250
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...SMOKE FROM WESTERN MONTANA WILDFIRES IS REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL RAISE LOWS
IN SOME AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THOUGH SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABOUT MVFR AND EVEN IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS. MALIAWCO


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 282045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
ELSEWHERE.

AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AT 7-13KT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 282045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
ELSEWHERE.

AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AT 7-13KT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 282045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
ELSEWHERE.

AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AT 7-13KT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 282045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE WARMTH
AROUND THE AREA SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ALSO...SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA WILL
DRIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S-SW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR 30*C WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS TOASTY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100F AT MOST PLACES. 99 IS THE OLD
RECORD FOR GLASGOW...LAST SET IN 1938.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST ALLOWING A SW FLOW TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. RAIN CHANCES WON/T INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE.
TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING STARTS WITH A
PATTERN CHANGE. A MEDIUM WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER THE DIVIDE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THE GFS AND EC FROPA
TIMINGS ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP. 700MB TEMPERATURES 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND +13C. BY 12 MONDAY 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND +3C. SO EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A STRUGGLE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
COOL AIR OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE HOT AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED NORTH TO ALLOW HOT AIR TO DRIFT BACK INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK OR POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE AMONG THE EXTENDED WEATHER MODELS AROUND
DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE
REMAINING PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALSO MADE MINOR EDITS TO MOST DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 GRIDS.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
ELSEWHERE.

AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS AT 7-13KT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281455
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
855 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST GRIDS UNTOUCHED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR NOW WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE IMPORTANT AS IT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN SMOKE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. LEFT SMOKE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW...AND NEXT SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.

BY SATURDAY...00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AROUND +30C. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE. DO EXPECT VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TOO...BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. CONSIDER ALSO THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECENTLY ALLOWING
FOR DRYING OUT OF FUELS. THAT ALL BEING SAID... A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
MPH AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD FUTURE WIND SPEED FORECASTS NUDGE UPWARD THEN FIRE WEATHER
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. FOR NOW WILL PLACE STRONG
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TAKE ON A DSS APPROACH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIMITATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IS A RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10KT AND OCCASIONAL 15KT. WIND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOULD EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS COME UP IN
FUTURE FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A LONE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 281455
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
855 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST GRIDS UNTOUCHED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR NOW WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE IMPORTANT AS IT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN SMOKE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. LEFT SMOKE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW...AND NEXT SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.

BY SATURDAY...00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AROUND +30C. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE. DO EXPECT VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TOO...BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. CONSIDER ALSO THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECENTLY ALLOWING
FOR DRYING OUT OF FUELS. THAT ALL BEING SAID... A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
MPH AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD FUTURE WIND SPEED FORECASTS NUDGE UPWARD THEN FIRE WEATHER
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. FOR NOW WILL PLACE STRONG
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TAKE ON A DSS APPROACH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIMITATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IS A RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10KT AND OCCASIONAL 15KT. WIND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOULD EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS COME UP IN
FUTURE FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A LONE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281455
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
855 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND
TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST GRIDS UNTOUCHED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR NOW WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE IMPORTANT AS IT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN SMOKE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. LEFT SMOKE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW...AND NEXT SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.

BY SATURDAY...00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AROUND +30C. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE. DO EXPECT VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TOO...BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. CONSIDER ALSO THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECENTLY ALLOWING
FOR DRYING OUT OF FUELS. THAT ALL BEING SAID... A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
MPH AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD FUTURE WIND SPEED FORECASTS NUDGE UPWARD THEN FIRE WEATHER
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. FOR NOW WILL PLACE STRONG
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TAKE ON A DSS APPROACH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIMITATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IS A RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10KT AND OCCASIONAL 15KT. WIND BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOULD EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS COME UP IN
FUTURE FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A LONE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR NOW WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE IMPORTANT AS IT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN SMOKE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. LEFT SMOKE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW...AND NEXT SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.

BY SATURDAY...00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AROUND +30C. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE. DO EXPECT VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TOO...BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. CONSIDER ALSO THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECENTLY ALLOWING
FOR DRYING OUT OF FUELS. THAT ALL BEING SAID... A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
MPH AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD FUTURE WIND SPEED FORECASTS NUDGE UPWARD THEN FIRE WEATHER
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. FOR NOW WILL PLACE STRONG
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TAKE ON A DSS APPROACH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIMITATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IS A RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WIND WILL GENERALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COULD BRING A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOULD EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS COME UP IN
FUTURE FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A LONE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 280927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR NOW WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THIS SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE IMPORTANT AS IT MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN SMOKE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA. LEFT SMOKE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW...AND NEXT SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.

BY SATURDAY...00Z ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AROUND +30C. DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE. DO EXPECT VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TOO...BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION. CONSIDER ALSO THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECENTLY ALLOWING
FOR DRYING OUT OF FUELS. THAT ALL BEING SAID... A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
MPH AT THIS TIME...NOT CONFIDENT CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD FUTURE WIND SPEED FORECASTS NUDGE UPWARD THEN FIRE WEATHER
WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. FOR NOW WILL PLACE STRONG
WORDING IN FORECAST PRODUCTS AND TAKE ON A DSS APPROACH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIMITATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THE
MOMENT. WHAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IS A RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROF OVER
WESTERN CANADA DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WITH THE DIGGING TROF...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL UNCERTAIN
BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS COULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WIND WILL GENERALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COULD BRING A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SMOKE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESULT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20
PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. SHOULD EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS COME UP IN
FUTURE FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A LONE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280258
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...

FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. RADAR
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LONE SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AN EASTERN AREAS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...SO POPS WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE ALL IS ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND AND WX: LIGHT WIND WILL GENERALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS WITH SMOKE.          PROTON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 280258
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...

FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. RADAR
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LONE SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AN EASTERN AREAS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...SO POPS WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE ALL IS ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WIND AND WX: LIGHT WIND WILL GENERALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY TO MVFR
LEVELS WITH SMOKE.          PROTON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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