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000
FXUS65 KGGW 311503
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM A FIRE
IN OREGON IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA BUT NOT EXPECTING
GREAT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA YET. GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING NORTHEAST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RISE INTO THE +23C TO +28C RANGE PER 00Z ECMWF/GFS. THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING
WILL LEAD TO LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS WELL. SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...SOME PLACES MAY SEE RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10
PERCENT. WEST WINDS MAY REACH 10-15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BECOME
ELEVATED. RECENT RAINFALL MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING CERTAINLY WORTH CONSIDERING.

ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING BY
ABOUT 5C COMPARED WITH SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO
REINFORCE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WOULD INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE REBOUNDS SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE RIDGE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE +23C TO +28C RANGE PER 00Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS
WELL. SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...SOME PLACES MAY SEE RH VALUES
AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. WEST WINDS MAY REACH 10-15 MPH DURING PEAK
HEATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED. RECENT RAINFALL MAY LIMIT THAT
POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS SOMETHING CERTAINLY WORTH CONSIDERING.

ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING BY
ABOUT 5C COMPARED WITH SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO
REINFORCE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WOULD INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE REBOUNDS SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE RIDGE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE +23C TO +28C RANGE PER 00Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS
WELL. SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...SOME PLACES MAY SEE RH VALUES
AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. WEST WINDS MAY REACH 10-15 MPH DURING PEAK
HEATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED. RECENT RAINFALL MAY LIMIT THAT
POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS SOMETHING CERTAINLY WORTH CONSIDERING.

ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING BY
ABOUT 5C COMPARED WITH SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO
REINFORCE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WOULD INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE REBOUNDS SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE RIDGE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310258
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST AS IS STANDS IN SOLID
SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT TOUCH UPS WERE NEEDED. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S CELSIUS. VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THAT COOLS THE NORTHERN ZONES OFF BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES. THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310258
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST AS IS STANDS IN SOLID
SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT TOUCH UPS WERE NEEDED. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S CELSIUS. VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THAT COOLS THE NORTHERN ZONES OFF BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES. THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 310258
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST AS IS STANDS IN SOLID
SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT TOUCH UPS WERE NEEDED. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 20S CELSIUS. VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THAT COOLS THE NORTHERN ZONES OFF BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES. THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 302039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
20S CELSIUS. VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THAT COOLS THE NORTHERN ZONES OFF BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES. THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 302039
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
20S CELSIUS. VERY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THAT COOLS THE NORTHERN ZONES OFF BY 3
TO 5 DEGREES. THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301506
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
906 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASK MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES OTHERWISE EXPECTING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NE ZONES.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 301506
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
906 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASK MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES OTHERWISE EXPECTING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NE ZONES.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 301506
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
906 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASK MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES OTHERWISE EXPECTING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NE ZONES.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300301
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
INHERITED GRIDS PER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. BEST BET FOR THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE REST OF FORECAST IS IN FINE
SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300301
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
INHERITED GRIDS PER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. BEST BET FOR THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE REST OF FORECAST IS IN FINE
SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292017
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
217 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY 10-15KTS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282050
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MORE RAIN AND WIND TODAY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL BE STACKED UP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
RESULT LOCALLY IN RAIN ENDING AND WIND DIMINISHING.

AT 6 PM THIS EVENING THE STORM CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY TO OUR EAST.
RAIN AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LATE AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS AFTERNOON THE
TAPERING DOWN THIS EVENING. WIND DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO WNW AROUND 10KT...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT ON
WEDNESDAY.

SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
1-3+ INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS RAINFALL TO
MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS INTO
WEDNESDAY. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 282050
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MORE RAIN AND WIND TODAY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL BE STACKED UP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
RESULT LOCALLY IN RAIN ENDING AND WIND DIMINISHING.

AT 6 PM THIS EVENING THE STORM CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY TO OUR EAST.
RAIN AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LATE AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS AFTERNOON THE
TAPERING DOWN THIS EVENING. WIND DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO WNW AROUND 10KT...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT ON
WEDNESDAY.

SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
1-3+ INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS RAINFALL TO
MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS INTO
WEDNESDAY. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








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