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000
FXUS65 KGGW 231522
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PUSH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN
AND MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE TO OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY. SO INCREASED SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS
AT GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS
SUN (TEMPS WERE 14 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ON THE 15TH...SO THIS CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT). TWEAKED WINDS AROUND GLASGOW AS WEST WINDS PROBABLY
WON/T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED (WITH THE LESSER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230210 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM LAYER MOISTURE MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS THIS INCREASE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT COULD
RESULT MOSTLY AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS USUALLY OF MINIMAL
IMPACT. CHOSE TO INCREASE WORDING TO NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. BMICKELSON

PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT
BUT WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOR FAIR SKIES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFT 18Z LOOK FOR INCREASING
VFR CLOUDINESS. PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 230210 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM LAYER MOISTURE MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS THIS INCREASE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT COULD
RESULT MOSTLY AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS USUALLY OF MINIMAL
IMPACT. CHOSE TO INCREASE WORDING TO NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. BMICKELSON

PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT
BUT WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOR FAIR SKIES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFT 18Z LOOK FOR INCREASING
VFR CLOUDINESS. PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 222102
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT BUT
WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
PERIOD. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221735
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO KSDY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
SWEEPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221735
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...BUT LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO KSDY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
SWEEPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BRITTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221502
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
902 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA AND ELEMENTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME
OR WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ADVISORY. MAY REFRESH OTHER ELEMENTS TO CURRENT CURRENT CONDITIONS
(I.E. POPS AND SKY). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

LOW CLOUDS VCNTY OF KGGW AND KOLF WILL LIFT TODAY.

WINDS: WILL REMAIN ABOUT CONSTANT TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE ABOUT
SUNSET. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 220844
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
244 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT IS NOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THIS MORNING TO ISOLATED. WHILE IT LOOKS BREEZY TODAY... IT DOES
NOT LOOK BREEZY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A FAST 150+ JET STREAK MOVES INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM
THE PACIFIC AND TRAVELS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE FLATTENED INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BREEZY WEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY
TO VICINITY SHOWERS...THEN CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
LOW-LEVEL CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR KGGW AND
KOLF WHICH MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...UP INTO THE 15G25KT RANGE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 220146
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
746 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO END SHORTLY THEN A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
HAVE DECIDED THAT THE FRONTAL WINDS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
CURRENTLY BEGIN BROKEN DOWN BY A PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF THE COLD
FRONT...IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST. MOST NOTABLY AT
MALTA WHERE WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. WITH THAT SAID IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
MALTA TO WIBAUX LINE DURING THE MORNING...THEN JUST FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD LAKE MANITOBA AND WEAK RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RULE AS THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AGAIN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STRONG UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN WHEN
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING PATTERN. THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT MOST OF IT SPLITS AROUND
NEMONT. SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW...CLOSE TO CLIMO. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE EC BRING IN 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C FOR A FROSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND TERMINATES IN A TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S
COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT WHEN A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LOW AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. SO LOOK FOR
AMENDMENTS IF SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR ANY TERMINAL. THE MAIN EFFECTS
OF THE WAVE WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 15-25 KT...AND CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF SHOWERS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE TROUGH WILL MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WIND WILL CONTINUE WESTERLY AND STRONG UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. THEN A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WIND TO SLACKEN
TO AROUND 10 KT. SCT/BLM

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 212051
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
CURRENTLY BEGIN BROKEN DOWN BY A PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF THE COLD
FRONT...IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. MOST NOTABLY AT
MALTA WHERE WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS WILL ALSO PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. WITH THAT SAID IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
MALTA TO WIBAUX LINE DURING THE MORNING...THEN JUST FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON  AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD LAKE MANITOBA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RULE AS THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AGAIN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STRONG UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN WHEN
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TO BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING PATTERN. THERE IS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT MOST OF IT SPLITS AROUND
NEMONT. SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW...CLOSE TO CLIMO. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE EC BRING IN 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C FOR A FROSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT. FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND TERMINATES IN A TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S
COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING WHEN A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED WEST
OF KGGW...THEN REACH THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LOW AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. SO LOOK FOR
AMENDMENTS IF SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR ANY TERMINAL. THE MAIN EFFECTS
OF THE WAVE WILL BE WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 15-25KT...AND CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF SHOWERS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WIND WILL CONTINUE WESTERLY AND STRONG UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. THEN A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WIND TO SLACKEN
TO AROUND 10KT. SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 211536
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: 5 TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 211536
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: 5 TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 211536
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: 5 TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 211536
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: 5 TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 210942
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
342 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE
TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WARM AND
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY BEFORE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI- ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE... NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE CONFIDENCE
DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON IS
CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN MENTIONED
ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210942
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
342 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE
TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WARM AND
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY BEFORE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI- ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE... NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE CONFIDENCE
DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON IS
CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN MENTIONED
ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










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